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Patrick Blanchenay

@pblanchenay.bsky.social
711 followers 524 following 371 posts

"Result expert" at norad.no, Oslo. Not the Santa Tracker. Personal account.

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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Babe, wake up, new season of Slow Horses just dropped.
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This is so scary. The whole point of a PR office, I would naively think, would be to make sure research informs the public. But this is completely the opposite. And each of these stories undermines scientific trust in the long run.
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moin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New paper! Despite qualitative researchers claiming that generalizability is not a goal, their published work does indeed contain generalizable claims. We document this and provide recommendations for how all researchers can better calibrate their generalizability claims. doi.org/10.1177/2515...
article header for, "Qualitative Researchers Can and Do Generalize: Generalizability Claims in Qualitative Psychological Research". Metascience!
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
In Ethiopia, community leaders tasked with selection of beneficiaries for social assistance prioritised coverage over transfer size when budgets were cut, while discretion allowed them to reach poor and conflict-affected households.
Share of households receiving a transfer and average transfer per beneficiary
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Wondering whether LLM favour or reduce incumbency in assessments and competitive processes. OTOH, they level some of the playing field, which could help new entrants. OTO, by turning everything to cheap talk, they force assessors to rely on reputations, networks, etc, favouring incumbents.
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
the best ones combine together different thought problems into one (The Turing Test Prisoner's Dilemma Double-Slit Experiment Monty Hall Problem)
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NBER @nber.org · 13/09/2026
Proposing a theory of costly voting in which citizens have prosocial motives, explaining both established and newly documented patterns in turnout data, from Dan M. Bernhardt, Laurent Bouton, Stefan Krasa, and Francesco Squintani www.nber.org/papers/w35723
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Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Humans are better at imagining risk than calculating it. We overweight rare, dramatic risks and underweight ordinary ones. That’s why we fear plane crashes more than falls or car accidents. AI is similar, governments and scammers use it to harm people today, but an imagined Skynet is scarier.
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Jess Miers 🦝 @jmiers230.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Here's what I actually think these incidents reveal (instead of a rogue AI terminator situation): Much of the infra we expect to be hardened is actually being held together by glue and popsicle sticks.
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Anna Hughes 🍁 @annaghughes.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
trying to make new friends as an adult
Amy Adams in Arrival holding the white board that says HUMAN while she's trying to communicate with aliens
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
candidate for the job of chief economist exposed as actually being an economist
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Zechariah @zechariahj.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
AI solved something I’ve never heard of? Yawn. Call me when it solves Navier Stokes
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Elle Cordova @ellecordova.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I am the very model of a modern day typographer A font take on the tune “Modern Major General” by Gilbert & Sullivan #typography #fonts #graphicdesign
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Wanna see something depressing? These are the changes in PISA scores between 2015 and 2025.
Graph showing that PISA Scores dropped between 2015 and 2025 in all OECD countries except Türkyie.
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Girish M. Duvvuri @gmduvvuri.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The open secret to pedagogy research is that small class sizes/maximizing educator attention per pupil is the simplest, most effective, and unfortunately the least attractive to administration thing you can do to improve learning outcomes.
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CNN @cnn.com · 05/09/2026
The United Nations General Assembly voted to adopt a new world map that reflects countries’ true relative sizes, after African nations urged the UN to right a centuries-old wrong.
cnn.com
UN votes to adopt new map that makes our world look very different | CNN
The United Nations General Assembly voted on Friday to adopt a new world map that reflects countries' true relative sizes, after African nations urged the UN to right a centuries-old wrong.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States" by Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade, and Beatriz Pousada.
aeaweb.org
The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States
(Forthcoming Article) - We characterize the contribution of immigrants to US innovation. Leveraging new data, we use age of SSN assignment to identify immigrant status. Immigrants represent 16 percent of inventors, but authored 23 percent of patents. Immigrant inventors contribute to knowledge diffusion across borders. They disproportionately rely on foreign technologies and inventor collaborations. Using variation from premature inventor deaths, we find immigrant inventors create stronger innovation productivity spillovers on their collaborators, as compared to US-born inventors. A simple model implies immigrants are responsible for 32 percent of aggregate innovation, over half of which is due to human capital externalities on US-born collaborators.
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Incredibly interesting.
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Data Colada @datacolada.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
An influential paper by Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002) reported two studies with tampered data. Post 1 of 2. datacolada.org/138
datacolada.org
[138] Artificial Deadlines (Part 1): Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About Procrastination
A new paper in Psychological Science (.htm) reports a failure to replicate Study 2 of Ariely and Wertenbroch’s influential article entitled, “Procrastination, Deadlines, and Performance: Self-Contr…
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🇵🇸Tim Henke (tɪm 'ɦɛŋ.kə) @timhenke.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
I think if I were an AI company trying to create a perception that AIs were going to replace mathematicians, what I would do is grab a large set of high-profile open problems and just start grinding counterexamples until I've found one, and then only report what went into finding that specific one
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 30/08/2026
In a fairytale moment of Deutsche Digitalisierung you can put the ticket for Berlin's Long Night of the Museums (6pm to 2am) on your phone, but it deletes itself at midnight.
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Gabrielle Hecht 🇵🇷 • she/elle/ella/cis⚔️ • AOC 4USpresident @gabriellehecht.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Sweetie just sent this sign from Cassis, where he’s spending a chill afternoon swimming in the sea. Translation: GROSS - cuisine FOR children
Panneau qui dit: BEURK - cuisine POUR enfants
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Congratulations to @chagaiweiss.bsky.social on the publication of Delivering Tolerance! A rigorous and engaging take on institutional solutions for prejudice reduction, and an impressive study of contact theory at scale ⚙️🧠🕊️ @princetonupress.bsky.social
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Brian Honan @brianhonan.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Happy Skynet day to all those who celebrate
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Beside the incredible scientific achievement, it will resonate particularly emotionally with those who lost dear ones to pancreatic cancer, once thought to be a quasi immediate death sentence.
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Zeta Of 1 @zetaof1.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
People assume that if I ever resume teaching it might be Data Science or Causality or maybe even Microeconomics, Econometrics, or even Philisophy but if I could teach one subject and people would be forced to listen it would be Poetry 101 and I'd force people to learn about good poetry versus bad
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Nobel Prize @nobelprize.org · 24/08/2026
We've arrived on Bluesky! We hope you will follow along as we share inspiring, motivational and exciting content about the achievements and individuals that have been awarded a Nobel Prize. Stay tuned.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
People tell me they like suits but don't have occasions to wear one. You can wear a suit to court, funerals, and religious services. Doesn't have to be your trial, friend's burial, or religion you believe in. Go to random trials, attend a stranger's burial, join multiple religions. Try it sometime.
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Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Today I became a Canadian Citizen! Did I expect to become emotional? Yes Did I? Also yes. I love this country! 🇨🇦 Now eating Colombian and Canadian treats to celebrate!
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
FINALLY
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
I am shocked at the number of faculty who seem to have had significant take-home assignments and exams until recently. LLMs have been a problem almost from start, but even before that, Chegg, "tutoring services" and paper mills were already a significant source of academic misconduct.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
mRNA vaccines vs cancer success —melanoma (Phase 3, RCT, definitive, announced today) —triple negative breast cancer —pancreatic cancer —non-small cell lung cancer —glioblastoma
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Jaclyn A. Siegel, PhD @jacasiegel.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Got an R&R yesterday that began with “This is an extremely well-written article, and I greatly enjoyed reading it,” and I think that I am going to stop submitting research now so I can end on this miracle high note.
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
i also wish i could tell the kids that are interested in social science that they've lucked out unbelievably by "having" to go to LSE or UCL, both of which have much stronger econ depts than oxbridge, but alas, as discussed, they're not here
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
My villain origin story is discovering some brands cut their mayonnaise with water.
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Jørgen Heszlein @heszlein.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New estimate of Elon Musk’s death toll just dropped www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Not to be some wild-eyed innocent, but I think it should be slightly bigger news that The Lancet have crunched the numbers and found that Musk's USAID cuts will kill 14 million people. And that's just by 2030. That's 9,600 people a day, every day, until the next world cup rolls around.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
When firms aren’t allowed to hire low-skill foreign workers, they don’t hire more Americans. They produce less, invest less, and shrink, with the sharpest effects in rural areas, say researchers at @jhu.edu and @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/imm...
aeaweb.org
Winning the visa lottery
Evidence from a US government lottery shows that restricting foreign low-skill workers shrinks businesses without creating jobs for Americans.
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
A field experiment in Bangladesh finds that requiring cash contributions for safe drinking-water wells sharply reduces take-up and impact, whereas labour contributions work about as well as no contribution at all – yet either requirement leaves the programme less cost-effective.
Cash contribution requirements reduce take-up and impact
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
"More households in low-income countries own a mobile phone than have access to electricity or clean water." Jenny Aker on VoxDevTalks today:
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/08/2026
Incredible. When E—n M—k & his crew obliterated USAID in a weekend, they deleted a vast trove of publicly-funded knowledge: the Development Experience Clearinghouse. A Canadian high school student (!) happened to have downloaded the entire thing for a project. AidData has now posted it for all.
aiddata.org
Before reimagining development data, remember what we’ve learned
Why we’re publishing a free, searchable, and ungated archive featuring a quarter-century of USAID evaluation reports.
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The assumption that finance ministries tend to systematically favour productive sector investment or apply across-the-board cuts to social services in the name of fiscal consolidation, might need reconsideration. Read today's article to learn more:
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Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
📣 We are hiring - please share! 👉 1-2 Postdoctoral Fellows with specialization in political data science or comparative politics as part of the ERC project “Authoritarian Threats to Scientific Knowledge” (AutoKnow)- PI Tore Wig. 📅3-4 years ⏳September 10, 2026. 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Thursday, September 10, 2026
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Patrick Blanchenay @pblanchenay.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The first letters of the first six sentences spell C.L.A.U.D.E.
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Le Monde @lemonde.fr · 09/08/2026
Le pape Léon XIV appelle à l’ouverture de couloirs humanitaires au Soudan
lemonde.fr
Le pape Léon XIV appelle à l’ouverture de couloirs humanitaires au Soudan
« J’exhorte la communauté internationale à soutenir les efforts visant à instaurer un cessez-le-feu immédiat », a déclaré le souverain pontife, au sujet d’un conflit qui a fait des dizaines de milliers de morts et déplacé des millions de personnes.
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Joshua Bowman @thalesdisciple.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Working on an A.I. policy for my calculus classes. Decided to be upfront about the current situation with LLMs and to give a heartfelt explanation for why the course still matters.
Al policy

Context

Artificial Intelligence, or "A.l.," Is a broad term used to refer to several different kinds of technologies. The kind most relevant to this class are Large Language Models (LLMs), which use mathematics to analyze large amounts of human-produced text and then generate new text that simulates what a human might write in response to prompts or questions. Some examples of LLMs are OpenAl's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, and Google's Gemini.Current LLMs can provide a solution to any calculus problem I give you. So why should we work on them, you might ask? Here's the thing: for the most part, the problems were already solved anyway. Calculus as a subject is nearly 400 years old. It has reached into virtually every modern scientific and economic field. And while I would like to believe that I have crafted a few new problems with some small amount of originality tailored to this class, for the most part I have curated a collection of exercises drawn from my years of teaching calculus. Those exercises come from textbooks, workshops, friends, and other fields of study, as well as my own invention.
And they nearly all have known solutions, often with fairly standard approaches.
Before A.I. became widely available, you could find those solutions in another textbook, or from a friend's notes, or through a repository on the internet.The point of this class is not necessarily to solve problems that have never been solved before. It is for you to develop habits of thinking that are used by mathematicians, scientists, and policymakers-to develop a sort of mental toolbox that can be applied to new problems. If along the way you happen to find a new way of solving one of the class exercises, that's great! I am constantly learning new things from my students. But you will be bereft of discovery if you rely on a LLM for solutions to the calculus problems before you. Here I mean the discovery of having your own realizations, crystallizing your own internal understanding, claiming the knowledge in a way that cannot be taken away from you.
That ownership is what I want for you, and that is what the course is built around.
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 07/08/2026
I find this, 1806 letter from Thomas Jefferson to Edward Jenner, so moving 🥺
To Dr. Edward Jenner Monticello, May 14, 1806
The Letters of Thomas Jefferson

SIR,
-- I have received a copy of the evidence at large respecting the discovery of the vaccine inoculation which you have been pleased to send me, and for which I return you my thanks. Having been among the early converts, in this part of the globe, to its efficiency, I took an early part in recommending it to my countrymen. I avail myself of this occasion of rendering you a portion of the tribute of gratitude due to you from the whole human family. Medicine has never before produced any single improvement of such utility. Harvey's discovery of the circulation of the blood was a beautiful addition to our knowledge of the animal economy, but on a review of the practice of medicine before and since that epoch, I do not see any great amelioration which has been derived from that discovery. You have erased from the calendar of human afflictions one of its greatest. Yours is the comfortable reflection that mankind can never forget that you have lived. Future nations will know by history only that the loathsome small-pox has existed and by you has been extirpated.

Accept my fervent wishes for your health and happiness and assurances of the greatest respect and consideration.
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Ben Harrap @bharrap.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Five panel meme featuring the same person saying

Causal inference?

Regression

Prediction? Regression

Description?

Believe it or not, regression
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Hadley Wickham @hadley.nz · 06/08/2026
This what pivot_wider() was born for
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