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Natalie Jackson

@nataliej.bsky.social
12K followers 238 following 93 posts
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
You may still disagree with my use of AI, and that's fine. I know people don't like it. I decided to be transparent anyway instead of hide it. Plus, I spent 2 solid days working on these methods issues, so I'm comfortable with what I know about the data.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It literally says in the next sentence that I dug in to confirm. And goes into great detail on what I saw when I was looking at the data. I used Claude to identify the patterns and potential cases, not to make decisions.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
emailed you
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
correct.
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 16/10/2025
In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:
njour.nl
Four in 10 Republicans think Trump improperly encouraged investigations
GOP opinion is more nuanced than just lemmings following their leader.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
But she'll have $150m or so to go do whatever she wants next.
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 17/09/2025
Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...
nationaljournal.com
Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer is 22 years old, and that’s not unusual
Young people are growing up in a toxic stew of violence and existential politics. They’re not OK.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv.... This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.
portal.aapor.org
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Philip Bump @pbump.com · 10/09/2025
It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
Midterm (Convention) Madness
Plus all the links.
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 03/09/2025
The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...
nationaljournal.com
RFK Jr.’s rise is a symptom of a long-term systemic illness
Mandates and mistrust supercharged the anti-vax movement.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ
wapo.st
Most D.C. residents oppose Trump’s city police takeover, poll finds
Though crime continues to be a concern, most residents don’t think Trump’s actions will make D.C. safer, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
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Dad Jokes @dadsaysjokes.com · 06/08/2025
Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.
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American Association for Public Opinion Research @aapor.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...
aapor.org
AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR
On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Also had ACA approval for years in addition to prez approval on topics. It was an interesting trend.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Pollster had a bunch of these.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Implication is that you need both professional and nonprofessional respondents in the right mix to get a good sample... but who knows what that mix is? And are there any nonprofessional respondents left in online panels by now?
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested). This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
And here's the full Pew piece: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
pewresearch.org
How Americans think a president impacts the country and their personal lives
Americans widely say that who the president is has a large impact on the country overall but a more limited impact on their own personal lives.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
nationaljournal.com
Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.
Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
nationaljournal.com
Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.
Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
nationaljournal.com
'You’re roadkill in the middle'
Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
nationaljournal.com
'You’re roadkill in the middle'
Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars' (‪@nataliej.bsky.social‬) www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
nationaljournal.com
Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'
The old specter of Iraq still looms large, but public opinion has fundamentally changed in 22 years.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
that's actually in this piece.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters. There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though. @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Support-oppose for strikes in Iran: YouGov 35-46 (-11) Ipsos 36-45 (-9) CNN 44-56 (-12) What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls. Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...
nationaljournal.com
After 10 years of Trump, analyzing polls has become a different game
Everything you knew is wrong. Black is white, up is down, and short is long.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
source: www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...
pewresearch.org
U.S. Image Declines in Many Nations Amid Low Confidence in Trump
More than half of adults in 19 of 24 countries surveyed lack confidence in Trump’s leadership on the world stage.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Global confidence in Trump: Canada: 22% Mexico: 8% ... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
This week for @nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies? It's possible. But likely not more than a few points. But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...
nationaljournal.com
If election polls underestimate Trump, are we underestimating support for his policies?
We can’t know for sure, but we have some clues.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...
nationaljournal.com
AI is coming for polling, too
What happens when pollsters no longer interview actual humans? We may find out in 2026.
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Ozan Kuru @ozankuru.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
"Rather than “this is what people think,” it’s more like: “This is what a bot army thinks … based on what a developer (likely not a political person) told them … which they’re not about to reveal to you. It’s the secret sauce!""
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...
nationaljournal.com
AI is coming for polling, too
What happens when pollsters no longer interview actual humans? We may find out in 2026.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Tell me again how women are too emotional to run the country?
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Jane Coaston @janecoaston.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
I talked about this piece on the show today but I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to not assume that other people think like you or make decisions for the same reason you do.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
The key here is that GOP voters are still largely on board with tariffs. If they shift, congresscritters will start to flee the ship to avoid primary challenges (since most are in safe seats). Right now, though, the primary risk is going against Trump. Just ask Cornyn.
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 09/04/2025
While a handful of congressional Republicans have joined efforts to bring tariff-policy powers back to the legislative branch, most are waiting and watching. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
nationaljournal.com
GOP voters still support Trump’s tariffs, for now
Watch what Republicans in Congress do if that changes.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Against a "shadow cabinet" for the Dems. Plus the week's links @dandrezner.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social @brownphdgirl.bsky.social @rickhasen.bsky.social @jenvictor.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/no-no-shadow
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
No. No Shadow.
Plus all the links.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I detailed the parallels - and distinct differences - between "but her emails" and Signalgate. Keep in mind - I wrote & published this yesterday. There are some new details not in here. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728016/is-...
nationaljournal.com
Is 'Signalgate' bigger than 'but her emails'?
Will a possible national security breach matter when there’s not an election at stake?
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 19/03/2025
When the effects of Trump’s policies do trickle down, opinion might shift against him—or it might not. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
nationaljournal.com
Trump’s poll numbers are bad! No wait, they’re good!
Interpreting the polls is more about perspective than ever right now.
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 11/03/2025
When ABC took down the venerable political web site FiveThirtyEight, political junkies lost more than just another web site dissecting the nation's electoral profile. @nataliej.bsky.social explains why in this unlocked column:
buff.ly
What we lost when FiveThirtyEight got canceled
Less data is bad for everyone.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
As a reminder, if you want my columns sent to your inbox each week, subscribe to my substack. Always free; it's just for distributing my existing work, sometimes with a little more context that didn't fit into the 800-word column or came out after I published. herdingcatsnj.substack.com
herdingcatsnj.substack.com
Herding Cats & Polls | Natalie Jackson | Substack
Exploring how politicians, the mass public, and cats are alike: They're all fickle, doing whatever suits them regardless of whether it makes sense, making life difficult for those who want to analyze ...
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National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 04/03/2025
Trump has embraced an America First policy of isolationism, with which Republicans are now largely aligned. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
buff.ly
Republicans’ remarkable shift on Ukraine
The Right often realigns itself in accordance with its leader. It will probably fall in line again.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
This ain't your parents' Reagan conservatism. Trump has shifted a lot Republican beliefs over the last 9 years as they follow him around like lost puppies. Russia-Ukraine will be no different. Read more in my latest @nationaljournal.com column. www.nationaljournal.com/s/727730/rep...
nationaljournal.com
Republicans’ remarkable shift on Ukraine
The right often realigns itself in accordance with its leader. It will probably fall in line again.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
If you want to know how to fund government programs and policies without wasting $$, you need federal surveys/data. Undermining these surveys is an under-the-radar way DOGE and Musk could be defeating their own purposes. My latest for @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/727669/mus...
nationaljournal.com
Musk’s chainsaw could hobble federal surveys. That’s worse than you think.
Efficiently distributing government money often requires collecting data from Americans.
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Natalie Jackson @nataliej.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
If you want to know how to fund government programs and policies without wasting $$, you need federal surveys/data. Undermining these surveys is an under-the-radar way DOGE and Musk could be defeating their own purposes. My latest for @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/727669/mus...
nationaljournal.com
Musk’s chainsaw could hobble federal surveys. That’s worse than you think.
Efficiently distributing government money often requires collecting data from Americans.
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