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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 3h

Stocks weakened into the close after headlines indicating concerns about Google's latest AI model, pushing the stock lower. Also, Trump said Jay Powell should be forced to resign from the Fed board, something about the Fed building renovations.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 8h

Oil up today, so bond yields up, macro data not having much impact on the longer end. S&P 500 seemingly ignoring yields at the moment, but again thanks to Tech and Energy, while most of the rest of the market is flat to down. Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon holding things up.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 10h

Some yield curve steepening today as the 10-year yield is now back to unchanged, no benefit from the economic data, while the 2-year yield is down 3bps. Long end sees solid spending and Fed getting behind the curve after Williams said yesterday he sees only 1 more hike this year.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 10h

Looks like some fairly large revisions to the income and spending data, producing substantial changes to the personal saving rate data. The saving rate was 3.0% for July before today's revisions, now shows as 4.6%, a big swing. Same going back, e.g. Dec. 2025 was 3.6%, now 5.0%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 10h

Economic data out this morning looks good overall, though sustainability of consumer spending remains a concern. Core PCE inflation better than expected at 0.2%, brings Y/Y to 3.0%, and prior data revised lower. Aug. spending +0.9% while income +0.2%. Spending +6.1% Y/Y vs 4.3% Y/Y income growth

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 29/09/2026

New blog post: In this post, I share a Special Report that Mill Street clients received last week, which may be of broader interest: What are the drivers of the extraordinary surge in corporate profits, who benefits most and least, and what might change? www.millstreetresearch.com/special-repo...

millstreetresearch.com

Special Report: Corporate Profits as a Deficit - The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Equation - Mill Street Research

In this post, I share a Special Report that Mill Street clients received last week, and which may be of broader interest. This is one of our occasional topical reports that we publish in addition to o...

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 29/09/2026

Headlines coming through about 30-year yields hitting highest since 2002, now at 5.6%. But that's not unusual based on current fed funds (3.75-4.0%) and the market's view of a peak around 4.8% next year. Since 2002, the 30yr has averaged ~1.9% above fed funds, though with wide variation.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 29/09/2026

Checking on corporate borrowing costs, long-term Baa-rated corporate bonds now yield 6.75% according to Bloomberg's index. That's up 80bps just since June 29 and close to the peak of 6.93% in October 2023. Core PCE inflation ~3.3% (next update tomorrow) means real borrowing rate is ~3.5%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 29/09/2026

Bonds still acting poorly even as oil prices have declined today. 10-year yield sitting near recent highs at 5.25%, 2-year at 4.94%, pricing in 2-3 more rate hikes. Stocks not doing much to start off the day, Semis up but broader indices flat.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 28/09/2026

Bond yields rising further, now touching 5.26% on the 10-year as oil bounces back up. Stocks under somewhat more pressure as a result. S&P 500 -0.9%, Russell 2000 -1.0%, NASDAQ-100 -1.4%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 28/09/2026

Stocks down fairly broadly today, giving back most of Friday's gains. Declines in Microsoft and Meta, plus software overall, are outweighing the gain in NVIDIA. Small-caps lagging. Oil is up but off its highs, while bond yields are holding at cycle highs, 10-year yield at 5.21%, 2-year at 4.90%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 28/09/2026

The ongoing capex surge in the S&P 500 (mostly Tech) continues to produce a big gap between projected (next-12-month, NTM) operating cash flow and free cash flow. So valuations are somewhat expensive vs history but not bad using operating cash flow, but still very expensive using free cash flow.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 25/09/2026

Interesting to see US TIPS yields nearing 3% (based on the ICE US TIPS index) while inflation expectations are hovering near 2.5% for the CPI for the next 1-2 years. The trend is global too, as inflation-linked bond yields in Europe (while lower) have also risen to 15-year highs lately.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 25/09/2026

Quiet day in markets overall so far. Bonds, oil, and stocks all not much changed -- stocks opened higher but have come back to roughly unchanged. Microsoft the biggest support for the S&P 500, Meta the biggest drag. 10-year Treasury yield rising a bit, holding near its latest highs at 5.21%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 25/09/2026

The Michigan sentiment data remains very strange, and still mostly useless for market forecasting purposes. It continues to diverge wildly from aggregate economic data, making it a socio-political measure rather than a direct measure of economic activity or likely policy action.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 24/09/2026

Many people are saying . . . Market odds holding at 66% chance of a hike in October, and if not then definitely in December. Roughly 50/50 still we get 2 more hikes this year.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 24/09/2026

Oil rising further just now, latest headline seems to be this on Bloomberg: YEMEN'S HOUTHIS CLAIM ATTACKS ON SAUDI ARABIA'S JAZAN Evidently Jazan is a big alternate port on the Red Sea.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 24/09/2026

In "yikes" news for those trying to get a mortgage for a home, the 30-year mortgage rate has now risen 125 bps from Feb. 27th to Sept. 23rd. The rate is now the highest since May 2024 at 7.39%, based on the ICE index capturing a balance-weighted average of 30-year mortgage loan lock rates.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 24/09/2026

Stock futures trading down this morning after yesterday's decline. Higher bond yields and oil were the problem yesterday, while today it looks like news from Oracle is hurting it as well as data center-related stocks www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Oracle Cites ‘Force Majeure’ to Shield Itself on Controversial Data Center

Oracle Corp. is moving to shield itself from racking up expenses on a massive data center being built in New Mexico, adding a fresh wrinkle to a project beset by opposition and regulatory setbacks.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026

Some useful data analysis by @mtkonczal.bsky.social about whether shutting down immigration has helped native-born US workers at all. TL;DR is a very clear "No", with a much appreciated assist from #1 Jonathan Frakes newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...

newsletter.mikekonczal.com

Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?

Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026

These are some big yield moves in Treasuries today, +14-16bps across the curve. Means the long-bond ETF, TLT, is down -1.5%, a new low. That's a 2.4 SD move. Odds of an October rate hike now 73%, and about even odds we get 2 rate hikes by year-end. Stocks under pressure but not drastically.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026

Fed officials talking more about rate hikes, and inflation not behaving . . . 2-year Treasury yield up 11bps today at 4.86%, another new high since mid-2024. The post-COVID peak 2yr yield was 5.22% in October 2023.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026

This continues to be a key factor in why consumer spending keeps growing faster than wage income, i.e., official saving rate declining. Stock market gains (and real estate to a lesser extent) are funding spending now more than in the past. The economy depends on the stock market more than before.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026

Strong PMI readings from S&P today are pushing bond yields back up, with the 10-year touching a new high of 5.03%. This is weighing on stock prices this morning, following the big gains Monday and mixed day yesterday. Oil is also coming off its recent lows as well.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 22/09/2026

Interesting post from @duncanlamont2.bsky.social, and highlights why Mill Street's MAER stock selection model only uses analyst estimate data for FY1 and FY2 (nothing beyond that). We also only use the changes (revisions) to estimates rather than the (positively skewed) growth forecasts themselves.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 21/09/2026

Plunging oil price and renewed interest in Tech/AI stocks is pushing the S&P 500 up 1.5% today, led by NASDAQ-100 gain of 2.6% and Semiconductor Index gain of 3.8% so far. Russell 2000 and equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) are lagging with ~0.5% gains.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 21/09/2026

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) had fallen about 24% from the June 22 peak to Sep. 14. Since then it has rallied back 10%, moving back above the 50-day average. The narrower, Tech/AI leadership is back while the broader market has been lagging. This is true even today when oil+rates are lower.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 21/09/2026

Stocks trading higher today, with large-caps again leading vs small-caps. Mostly Big Tech driving the indices, led by META and AMD. Oil is down despite ongoing problems in Ukraine and Middle East, so that is helping moderate bond yields, while the VIX is back below 15.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 18/09/2026

Looks like a late rally in Tech may have been set off by headlines that Anthropic sees $100B in annualized revenue this year, and is planning to go ahead with its IPO. Will be interesting to see how OpenAI responds, and what the market's more considered response is on Monday.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 18/09/2026

Which market segments care about rates/oil is more stark some days than others. Semis ignoring the 10yr back at 5%, up 1.2% Russell 2000 down -0.7% after lagging yesterday. R2K has lagged S&P 500 by 4.5% in the last month, and is down -7% from its August peak.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 18/09/2026

Bond yields moving back up today, 10-year at 4.98%. Oil up slightly, with front-month WTI holding around $102 With central banks raising rates globally and energy inflation likely to continue, hard to see how bond yields go down much from here. Stock futures mixed, off earlier highs.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 18/09/2026

Bank of Japan raised rates today as was widely expected, which makes it the first time the BoJ, Fed, and ECB all raised rates in the same month. Rates are rising globally, and the BoJ is no longer as much of the outlier it was for so long, as more hikes likely there too.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 17/09/2026

Stocks ended fairly strong today, led by large-cap Tech, while small-caps were up but lagged. The big move was in bonds, where the 10-year yield reversed all of the post-Fed increase and ended at 4.93%. This was helped by oil prices pulling back. So oil + bonds + mildly oversold stocks = rebound

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 17/09/2026

Stocks and bonds rebounding fairly strongly this morning, and while there may be some element of a lagged response to the Fed meeting yesterday, it is mostly the decline in oil prices that is helping bond yields and thus stock prices. Front-month WTI touched $106 on Tuesday, now ticking below $100.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

Seems like the notable news from Warsh was that the Fed viewed rates as accommodative before today, and felt the need to reduce the accommodation with a rate hike. That implies we may not even be at "neutral" much less "restrictive", and if the labor market is strong then more rate hikes coming.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

2-year Treasury yields staying near their highs, which is pushing stocks to their lows of the day now. S&P 500 down -0.9% and at the lowest since Aug. 3rd. Russell 2000 down -1.1%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

Stocks choppy but trading lower after the Fed press conference, but Tech holding up. S&P 500 -0.4% at the moment. Market odds show 44% chance of another hike in October, and if not then, definitely by December. Another hike or two in 2027 priced in would bring fed funds to a peak of around 4.6%.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

Fed raises rates as expected, so markets not responding much thus far. Waiting for the press conference to get more color on the outlook . . .

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

While we sit around and wait for the Fed, worth remembering that whatever China is doing with AI, or autos, or renewables, etc., it is not growing corporate profits much and its stock market continues to lag the rest of the world. Since Oct. 1st, MSCI China down -20%, vs +14% for MSCI ACWI index.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 16/09/2026

Retail sales just out, look strong overall after weak data last month. Data is still noisy but sales ex autos and gas are up 5.6% from a year ago, still decent even with elevated inflation. Consumers are still spending despite slowing wage growth, helped by stock market gains and borrowing.

census.gov

Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 15/09/2026

More shocks to the supply of diesel fuel being reported from Russia and the Middle East have pushed prices to the highest level since the 2022 spike after the initial invasion of Ukraine. Oil and gasoline prices also higher though not quite as extreme so far. Stocks feeling pressure this morning.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 15/09/2026

Rates are the big topic as bond yields make new cycle highs and the odds of a rate hike tomorrow have risen to 94% Stock futures have been moving with bond prices (inversely to yields) lately, and yields have been heavily influenced by oil prices, with things in the Middle East not going well.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 09/09/2026

NEW BLOG POST: www.millstreetresearch.com/earnings-and... I address a common client question: if earnings and estimates are so strong, why aren't you super bullish on stocks? While I am not bearish, my objective allocation indicators are only neutral now, and expectations are *very* high.

millstreetresearch.com

Earnings and estimates are very strong, so why not be super-bullish? - Mill Street Research

A key question from clients that we have addressed recently is: earnings and analyst estimates have rarely been stronger, even in regions less exposed to the AI boom than the US (Europe, Japan), so wh...

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 09/09/2026

Bond yields moving up further to new highs at 4.84% on the 10-year as oil prices keep moving higher. Bessent's silly bond buyback program now said to be "up to $6 billion", which is 1) small vs the Treasury market and 2) will just end up being reissued later.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 09/09/2026

The main news today is that the Middle East is still a problem, so oil prices are higher, keeping bond yields up. But the moves are not that big so stocks still don't really care that much. Bessent "daring" traders to bet against the yen is amusing but just shows he's a clown.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 08/09/2026

Notable rally in junky stocks today, which don't help the major indices but shows continued rotation under the surface. Semiconductors (some of which are not junky) are also outperforming today, along with Energy and Utilities. Health Care and Financials (leading non-AI sectors) are lagging today

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 08/09/2026

The jokes about it being "August 39th" may continue even as US equity markets come back from the long holiday weekend and the unofficial end of summer. No major economic data or earnings reports due today. Adobe and Oracle report on Wednesday, PPI Wednesday and CPI Thursday will be important.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 06/09/2026

I don't know why people make economics so hard, or why people like @besttrousers.bsky.social and @whstancil.bsky.social don't simply defer to the authority of McSweeney's more often, they explained this months ago . . .

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 04/09/2026

Is this the sound of policy risk going up again? Not sure what this is supposed to mean, just more economically illiterate nonsense, but sounds like a threat to the Fed?? "Lower rates or I'll shoot the economy"? Just hoping everyone ignores this and someone else jangles keys in front of him.

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Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 04/09/2026

The labor market is holding up pretty well, and today's data recovered some of the earlier signs of weakness. But Waller's comments, among others, suggest that the Fed already assumes the labor market is fine, and it is inflation data that matters more. So CPI/PPI next week still the focus.

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