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Win Monroe

@winmonroe.bsky.social
2.3K followers 1.8K following 2.1K posts

Another economist. Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that. Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.

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Reposted by Win Monroe
George Pearkes @peark.es · 23h
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 3h
When will US 10 year yields hit 5.5%? 1️⃣ 1 week 2️⃣ 2 weeks 3️⃣ 1 month 4️⃣ End of the year 5️⃣ Not any time soon 📊 Show results
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 11h
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 18h
Is the world really drowning in debt? - www.ft.com/content/a120... via @FT
ft.com
Is the world really drowning in debt?
We may not be on the eve of disaster but room for manoeuvre is shrinking for major economies
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Reposted by Win Monroe
George Pearkes @peark.es · 29/09/2026
Finished a project today: a regularly-updated G10 macro monitor covering central banks across the US, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. One-shot update with Python, which delights me. media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026...
Information dense screenshot of US macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.Information dense screenshot of Eurozone macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.Information dense screenshot of Japan macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Julian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I am told Maeve is now available for adoption. Going to try to take her out for a field trip this week & provide additional adorable photos.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I bet he will name him something like Czar of America or whatever 🙄
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.ft.com/content/3976...
ft.com
Rethinking the dollar
Strong and stable, somewhat surprisingly
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
the most important story in the world keeps getting a bit important-er
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
me too buddy, me too
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My fear is we may ultimately all go mad watching British politics contort itself into a pretzel to avoid a couple of pence on the basic rate of income tax.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Not sure there are many Kalecki heads on this website but I'm going to give this a try anyway. If this isn't your cup of tea, you might want to hit mute now...
A journal cover page for "An analytical heterogeneous agent macro model of concentration, markups, and falling labour shares" by Karsten Kohler, Jo Michell and Ayoze Alfageme, published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

The abstract text is: This paper presents an analytical heterogeneous agent model (HAM) to explore micro-level concentration dynamics and their effects on macro-level distribution and growth. It contributes to recent work on macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs) by comparing a small-scale ABM with bilateral firm-customer matching to a simplified HAM without direct agent interactions. The HAM replicates key ABM results while allowing for analytical solutions. In the model, larger firms benefit from lower unit costs due to economies of scale, gain larger market shares, and set higher markups. More profitable firms temporarily grow faster, leading to endogenous changes in the firm size distribution. The resulting right-skewed distributions create a divergence between the average profit share across firms and the aggregate profit share, which is driven by the largest firms. The decline in the labour share reduces aggregate consumption and slows growth. Despite its simplicity, the model captures key empirical patterns related to superstar firms and declining labour shares.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is a good piece of evidence about the 2024 US presidential election that I have not seen before
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Luca Tiratelli @lucatiratelli.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I await the first time a politician proposing some nuts new immigration restriction is asked what is otherwise the media’s favourite question: how are you going to pay for it??
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
good lord I'm glad I didnt not stay up for the calculations I was running last night. thought they would finish in 30 minutes, but no seems they ran for hours over the night only to fail 🤦
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Doesn't help that every time I want to be like "it's not the GFC" I read an article that says something like "X is selling insurance on chip collateral values" Nvidia turns to insurers to spread the risk of AI build-out - www.ft.com/content/d6a9... via @FT
ft.com
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Carter Lowe @whitesoxx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
They are cooking up food in the #WhiteSox stadium that you cannot possibly comprehend
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
New post: paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-in-jour...
paulgp.substack.com
AI in journals, conferences, and submissions
A variety of facts about AI’s effect on economics research
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Philosophy of Science Association @philsci.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The PSA invites submissions of course syllabi that showcase effective and creative teaching of the philosophy of science that reaches beyond the mainstream! 🧵
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🚨 QT? The BoE’s balance sheet has *grown* over the past year. www.ft.com/content/1a44...
ft.com
The Bank of England’s balance sheet has already stopped shrinking
So is it QE on the QT?
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
EU countries consider Nato-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks - www.ft.com/content/5513... via @FT
ft.com
EU countries consider Nato-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks
Campaign this year has included drone attacks, bombs and arson, leading to calls for a stronger response
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
lol actually kinda
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Economists are going to run so many regressions
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Got to be the final boss of popular politics and bad economics.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
First longhorns game I've been able to tune into for a while. Loving it until 2 seconds ago...
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
maybe I am just having an unlucky day, but the coding "help" I'm getting from AI right now might be a net negative to me today. Constantly giving me unworkable code, frequently changing things nad introducing new bugs. dozens and dozens of basic mistakes introduced in just one day.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
John Scalzi @scalzi.com · 26/09/2026
Whatever you do, don't smoke an entire brisket at a job interview, it's a lot of equipment to bring in, it takes a really long time to do it right and those conference rooms have notoriously poor ventilation
Someone smoking a brisket and poking it with a meat thermometer to see what the internal temperature is
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Luke LeBrun @lukelebrun.ca · 26/09/2026
Tech companies suddenly decide they can, in fact, moderate content on their platforms after all
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
JPMorgan and the broking fetish for conviction calls - and why William Butler Yeats would not have done well as head of research at an investment bank -great column by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/6862e493-c...
as.ft.com
JPMorgan and the broking fetish for conviction calls
An admission by some analysts at the bank of an inability to form a baseline view should be thanked rather than mocked
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 26/09/2026
This shitshow in bonds is the perfect environment for an accident. Fun! Me, 300 free clicks Bond ructions point to new danger zone in markets - as.ft.com/r/95199679-b...
as.ft.com
Bond ructions point to new danger zone in markets
Sell-offs of this scale and speed have the potential to light fires in other parts of the financial system
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Haven't seen most of these, but would put babylon berlin above many that I have. Just the right balance of serious/interesting and fun for my taste.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"We’re in the danger zone" Bond ructions point to new danger zone in markets - www.ft.com/content/4acb... via @FT
ft.com
Bond ructions point to new danger zone in markets
Sell-offs of this scale and speed have the potential to light fires in other parts of the financial system
010
Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Haven't seen most of these, but would put babylon berlin above many that I have. Just the right balance of serious/interesting and fun for my taste.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Joyce Park @troutgirl.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
I once knew a Federal bank examiner, and one time someone asked him why we had to KEEP inspecting banks over and over. He basically said every new batch of business school grads invents bank fraud from first principles.
6888822662
Reposted by Win Monroe
Benedict Carey Lewis @bclmacro.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The incalculable constellation of characteristics is now a stock idiom.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
ugh, I love my new research project so much, but my lord theres a lot of work to do
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Iñaki Aldasoro @aldasoro.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New BIS Bulletin out! AI and robots could ease demographic pressures. But automation potential is poorly aligned with the sectors where workforces are ageing in several advanced economies. We explore policy implications and make the aging/automation dataset available www.bis.org/publications...
bis.org
Old workers, young machines: can AI and automation offset population ageing? | Bank for International Settlements
Key takeaways Artificial intelligence (AI) and robots have the potential to offset the macroeconomic consequences of an ageing workforce, but the ability to automate jobs depends on which industries a...
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Panu Raatikainen @panuraatikainen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The principal results of Analytic Philosophy: 1. 5 + 7 = 12 (Frege) 2. The present king of France is bald (Russell) 3. Snow is white (Tarski)
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The bond market is the most interesting and important summary statistic for (gestures wildly) all this
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
1 down, 2 to go bsky.app/profile/winm...
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Great read, digging deep on a common market narrative right now
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
‘This is playing into his hands’/‘this will allow him to play the martyr card’/‘this will help with his fundraising’ are all really bad takes. Criminals should be arrested and charged with crimes.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Nice podcast for those interested in treasury market structure (dozens of us, etc) www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
mercatus.org
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Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Finally
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
preemptive mute on all carville baseball quotes
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Reposted by Win Monroe
ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The bond market is once again on the front page of the FT and I am once again reminding you that bond markets only do this when they are extremely distressed.
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Edward Harrison @edwardnh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Basically running 6% deficits when the unemployment rate is near 4% after massive tax breaks means large corporations are cleaning up like nobody’s business
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Quinn Slobodian @quinnslobodian.com · 22/09/2026
*person finishing PhD perusing job postings*: Let's see, History of AI at Rice, Political Science and AI at BU, Governance and AI at Northeastern, Government and AI at Hopkins...
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