Sign in

Michael R Strain

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social
4.1K followers 149 following 445 posts

Director of Economic Policy Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Professor of Practice at Georgetown University. Contributing Columnist for the Financial Times.

PostsRepliesMedia
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
1/ People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces. We have agency. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/02e1...
ft.com
Socialists and Maga are both wrong about economic liberalism
People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces — free enterprise gives us agency
231
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Alphabet soup of the economy? My take on C vs K, and @michaelrstrain.bsky.social makes great points, too. www.npr.org/2026/08/13/n...
12810
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"The Powell doctrine remains the best way for American presidents to decide why and how to go to war, in the Middle East and elsewhere. And even in Iran, it is not too late for Powell’s precepts to help avert disaster." Important essay by my colleague @kschake.bsky.social. #policysky #econsky
foreignaffairs.com
Why We Should Fight
And where Trump went wrong.
050
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
🧵 While you’re celebrating the 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence this weekend, spare a thought for Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which reached the same milestone this year. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...
ft.com
On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .
The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people
197
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Andrew Hazlett @andrewhazlett.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Many invisible supports of our economic prosperity have been eaten away by this administration. I wonder if people can be made to understand the steep cost of all this random bullshittery?
012
Reposted by Michael R Strain
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 29/06/2026
The Commissioner of the BLS was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. The resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. @nickbloom.bsky.social, E Groshen, D Hobbs, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
This figure displays the daily Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in the week before and after August 1. The solid black line is the raw daily index and the dashed lines on either side of August 1 represent the average EPU index in the week before and week after August 1 respectively.

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.
044
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
I'm proud to be on the board of this terrific project. #econsky #policysky
130
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
385
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 04/06/2026
How much value does BLs create? bsky.app/profile/mich...
043
Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
How can Trump turn things around on inflation?
Most of the culpability rests with the Fed and the Biden government but voters will hold the president accountable
101
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Tomorrow’s Affairs @tmrwsaffairs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax
tomorrowsaffairs.com
Populists wrong to call for targeted taxes on the ultra-wealthy
We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it
211
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power." www.aei.org/foreign-and-... #policysky
aei.org
1235
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky
325790
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135
nber.org
The Value of Reliable Statistics
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
0159
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
🧵President Trump has three goals when it comes to the Federal Reserve, including having Kevin Warsh as chairman. But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #econsky
project-syndicate.org
Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed
Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.
141
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Quinn Slobodian @quinnslobodian.com · 11/04/2026
Good from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social: remarkable how long it's taken to admit that with the great exception of trade policy, Trump has governed economically like the think tanks that write his legislation. www.ft.com/content/c8c4...
33110
Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity—Trumpism barely works for Trump — most Americans disapprove of his job performance, including on inflation and immigration, the issues crucial… www.ft.com/content/c8c4... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity
Most of the things that make it distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last
111
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky
161
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I had the privilege of organizing economist amicus briefs in support of the parties challenging the administration’s most recent round of worldwide tariffs. The cases are Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump. and Oregon et al. v. Trump, both before the U.S. Court of International Trade.
17816
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Economists have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask: How much productivity growth should society desire? My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a... #econsky
project-syndicate.org
How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?
Michael R. Strain argues that the benefits of substantial gains would outweigh the costs in advanced economies.
0133
Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology- What should the Fed do? On the one hand, increasing interest rates in a weakening economy could be damaging. At the same time, it is imperative — after… www.ft.com/content/b9fd... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
101
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
1/ The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
111
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
1/ With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes & more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky
project-syndicate.org
Christians vs. America’s Taliban
Michael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.
3114
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. Even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year. My FT column: www.ft.com/content/2422... #econsky
ft.com
Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong
The conventional view has struggled to contend with robust economic growth
020
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Rich democracies are doing better than ever across many broad measures. While there are genuine concerns about democratic capitalism, it is hardly an obstacle to human flourishing, argues @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/49RnEcn
bit.ly
Is Affluence a Barrier to Living Well?
Michael R. Strain thinks the struggle for subsistence and the struggle to flourish occurs simultaneously.
011
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Jonathan Derbyshire @jderbyshire.ft.com · 06/01/2026
In the latest FT Swamp Notes newsletter (and before the seizure of Maduro), I asked @constelz.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @sohrabahmari.bsky.social, Lauren Fedor and Rebecca Katz to offer some guidance to the year ahead in US politics as.ft.com/r/faed7e98-5...
as.ft.com
The year ahead in US politics
[FREE TO READ] Friends of the Swamp look forward to what is likely to be a pivotal period, culminating in November’s midterm elections
0135
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do?
261
Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun-The writer is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. www.ft.com/content/9adf... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun
Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings
001
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers. #econsky
3151
Reposted by Michael R Strain
jeffreypclemens.bsky.social @jeffreypclemens.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
@michaelrstrain.bsky.social and I recently published a narrower paper using CPS data to understand the role of minimum wages in shaping wage gains over 12-month intervals (reflecting the limits of what one can do in CPS data): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
111
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
The centenary of Margaret Thatcher's birth received remarkably little attention, offering yet another reminder of how far the right has strayed, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/47YR2ej
bit.ly
Can the American Right Find Its Way Back?
Michael R. Strain hopes the Republican Party can rediscover the dignity, decorum, and seriousness that once defined it.
031
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 03/11/2025
How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor
Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich
Aaron Sojourner

We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain
where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where
Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated
and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage
garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...
515764
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/3JdNBrU
bit.ly
The Problem with America’s Health-Care Subsidies
Michael R. Strain thinks the enhanced measures – a temporary salve enacted during the pandemic – should be allowed to expire.
021
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Michael Smerconish @smerconish.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Michael sits down with Dr. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social to challenge the idea that the American Dream is out of reach. Is homeownership essential to success? Does hard work still pay off? And are our expectations part of the problem? Listen to the #podcast here 🎧➡️ loom.ly/7l3hQnE
491
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 08/10/2025
@michaelrstrain.bsky.social explored this topic in a recent column for VoxEU. He argues US manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention. A trade war is likely to decrease employment in the sector rather than increase it. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
cepr.org
The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment
The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that American manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention, and that the trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment rather than increase it.
0133
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf
bit.ly
The Fed’s Wrong Move
Michael R. Strain argues that US interest-rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026, as inflation re-accelerates.
031
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed. www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social
cbsnews.com
9/5: CBS Evening News Plus
A possible upside to August's slowing job growth; Reporter's Notebook: Can a manufacturing renaissance deliver for workers?
140
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory. My @nationalreview.bsky.social column. www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky
nationalreview.com
The Senate Must Preserve Fed Independence | National Review
Whether Lisa Cook stays or goes, the Senate must confirm only Fed governors who are independent of partisan politics and of the president.
2827775
Reposted by Michael R Strain
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 26/08/2025
Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Graph of the top countries' manufacturing production in billions of 2015 constant dollars.

The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that American manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention, and that the trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment rather than increase it.
062
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 26/08/2025
What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares? @novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
marketplace.org
Why Intel warns that government stake may hurt shareholders
Washington’s investment may well come with unintended consequences.
054
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns. My @financialtimes.com column. Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky
ft.com
Trump’s Intel deal is a threat to US economic liberty
Taking unnecessary equity stakes in private companies is opportunism — not strategic state capitalism
2179
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
I'm proud to work with WorkRise and I am proud of the work WorkRise is doing to advance economic mobility for low-wage workers. Please take a minute for this survey. Link: urban.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_... #econsky
urban.co1.qualtrics.com
Research-Informed Action for Low Wage Worker Mobility
This survey is a fieldwide effort to hear directly from practitioners, employers, policymakers, researchers, and funders about where evidence is most urgently needed. The goal is to benefit the entire...
000
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Take a moment to read this by @michaelrstrain.bsky.social on BLS yes, but also on integrity. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #EconSky
project-syndicate.org
Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief
Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.
153
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 18/08/2025
The chaos of Trump's sticks, coupled with the absence of carrots, is not on track to set up a manufacturing renaissance, reports @greenhousenyt.bsky.social, with comment from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @drodrik.bsky.social Ann Harrison , Sue Helper, and me. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Trump’s promise of a US manufacturing renaissance leaves experts scratching their heads
Economists doubt US duties will bring about a resurgence of US factory jobs, notably due to Trump’s erratic tariff rollout
163
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
"The Bureau of Labor Statistics shall also collect, collate, report and publish at least once per month full and complete statistics on the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of people employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment." US law--1913, 1930
714149
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
1/ On @marketplace.org, I argue that private-sector data are a valuable compliment to government data, but are *not* a substitute for government data, like those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky
marketplace.org
With Trump taking aim at government economic data, what other sources can businesses turn to?
There are private firms that offer specialized economic data, but they're not always as comprehensive as government sources.
711623
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
#econsky
6177
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.
project-syndicate.org
Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief
Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.
472
Reposted by Michael R Strain
Jacob Bogage @jacobbogage.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Trump fired the official in charge of collecting basic statistics about the US economy. He's risking material harm to the economy by politicizing routine data reports, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tells me. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Staffing shortages at the bureau are already fueling questions about the agency’s ability to accurately tabulate data on consumer prices.

“The president is risking material economic harm through his politicization of the BLS and of official government data,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who worked with McEntarfer in the early 2010s at the U.S. Census Bureau.
“It is imperative that businesses, households and investors believe that official government data are accurate and do not reflect any political bias,” Strain said. “Fortunately, that is true of the data, but by sewing doubt, President Trump is undermining the integrity of the information that businesses, investors and households rely on.”
85317
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky
371042318