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Michael R Strain

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social
4.1K followers 149 following 447 posts

Director of Economic Policy Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Professor of Practice at Georgetown University. Contributing Columnist for the Financial Times.

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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I organized an economist amicus brief in support of affirmance of the Court of International Trade's ruling in Oregon v. Trump and Burlap and Barrel v. Donald J. Trump that the administration exceeded its authority when it imposed 10% worldwide tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I have read a bunch of the replies to @justinwolfers.bsky.social's post, and I want to reaffirm that Justin's argument is deeply correct --- morally, civically, and empirically. Thank you, Justin, for speaking out about this crucially important issue.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I have read a bunch of the replies to @justinwolfers.bsky.social's post, and I want to reaffirm that Justin's argument is deeply correct --- morally, civically, and empirically. Thank you, Justin, for speaking out about this crucially important issue.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
2/ Liberalism gives pride of place to liberty. But liberty is not the same as licence. To let your passions — or market incentives — determine your choices is to be enslaved. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/02e1...
ft.com
Socialists and Maga are both wrong about economic liberalism
People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces — free enterprise gives us agency
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
1/ People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces. We have agency. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/02e1...
ft.com
Socialists and Maga are both wrong about economic liberalism
People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces — free enterprise gives us agency
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
👊
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Alphabet soup of the economy? My take on C vs K, and @michaelrstrain.bsky.social makes great points, too. www.npr.org/2026/08/13/n...
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"The Powell doctrine remains the best way for American presidents to decide why and how to go to war, in the Middle East and elsewhere. And even in Iran, it is not too late for Powell’s precepts to help avert disaster." Important essay by my colleague @kschake.bsky.social. #policysky #econsky
foreignaffairs.com
Why We Should Fight
And where Trump went wrong.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Fin/ My thoughts turn to the tricentennial, 50 years from now. Will America reach that birthday with those commitments intact? #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...
ft.com
On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .
The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
3/ Yet in the US today, commitment to them is under direct assault — from nationalist-populists on the right and socialist-populists on the left. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...
ft.com
On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .
The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
2/ The ideas animating those the Declaration and The Wealth of Nations — the importance of free people and free markets to human flourishing — have profoundly shaped America and the modern world.  #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...
ft.com
On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .
The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
🧵 While you’re celebrating the 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence this weekend, spare a thought for Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which reached the same milestone this year. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...
ft.com
On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .
The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Andrew Hazlett @andrewhazlett.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Many invisible supports of our economic prosperity have been eaten away by this administration. I wonder if people can be made to understand the steep cost of all this random bullshittery?
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 29/06/2026
The Commissioner of the BLS was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. The resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. @nickbloom.bsky.social, E Groshen, D Hobbs, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
This figure displays the daily Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in the week before and after August 1. The solid black line is the raw daily index and the dashed lines on either side of August 1 represent the average EPU index in the week before and week after August 1 respectively.

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
I'm proud to be on the board of this terrific project. #econsky #policysky
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Gift link! giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Fin/ But I still think that the normal democratic process has a much better shot at leading to deficit reduction than most analysts and commentators seem to think, as I discuss in my latest @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
5/ Of course, politics and policymaking have deteriorated since the 1990s. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
4/ Commentators contrast this success with the failure of the $4T “grand bargain” deficit-reduction effort in 2011, led by President Obama and Speaker Boehner. They argue that the rise of more adversarial and performative politics is to blame. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
3/ Many discount this possibility because the last truly successful effort to reduce the deficit occurred as long ago as 1993, when the political environment was much more amenable to productive compromise. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
2/ But I am more optimistic that the normal democratic process could yet lead to deficit reduction. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 04/06/2026
How much value does BLs create? bsky.app/profile/mich...
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
How can Trump turn things around on inflation?
Most of the culpability rests with the Fed and the Biden government but voters will hold the president accountable
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Tomorrow’s Affairs @tmrwsaffairs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax
tomorrowsaffairs.com
Populists wrong to call for targeted taxes on the ultra-wealthy
We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power." www.aei.org/foreign-and-... #policysky
aei.org
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
👊
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Correct.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
6/ Paper here: www.nber.org/papers/w35135
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
5/ Alternatively, trust in BLS raises GDP by at least one order of magnitude more than the agency’s budget, just through the channel of supporting investor confidence.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
4/ Applying our baseline estimate of the impact of about $20 billion suggests that the marginal erosion in public trust in the quality and integrity of BLS data cost the nation about $25 for every $1 of direct government spending on the agency.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
3/ Economic policy uncertainty spiked in the wake of the president’s efforts to undermine public trust in BLS data, as you would expect to see if trust in a crucial source of information about the economy had been eroded.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
2/ On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the BLS, alleging that she “faked the Jobs Numbers” and was “incompetent.” This event provides a rare opportunity to study something that is otherwise difficult to measure: the value of trustworthy official statistics.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135
nber.org
The Value of Reliable Statistics
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Fin/ But to ensure Warsh's timely confirmation, Republican senators must pressure Trump to drop the threats and the criminal investigation into Powell. They must convince the president to get out of his own way. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #econsky
project-syndicate.org
Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed
Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
4/ Warsh will be a terrific Fed chairman, bringing many skills and attributes to the post. Much of his reform agenda is laudable and necessary. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #econsky
project-syndicate.org
Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed
Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
3/ Warsh's nomination hearing for Fed chairman is today. A main subject of the hearing will be Trump's scandalous decision to weaponize the threat of criminal prosecution against Powell in order to get the Fed to lower interest rates. #econsky www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
project-syndicate.org
Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed
Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
2/ Traders on Polymarket think the odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 14 are a measly 2 percent. If that doesn't happen, then Powell will stay on as chairman pro tempore after his term expires on May 15. This is the opposite of what Trump wants. Trump has only himself to blame. #econsky
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
🧵President Trump has three goals when it comes to the Federal Reserve, including having Kevin Warsh as chairman. But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #econsky
project-syndicate.org
Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed
Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Thank you!
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity—Trumpism barely works for Trump — most Americans disapprove of his job performance, including on inflation and immigration, the issues crucial… www.ft.com/content/c8c4... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity
Most of the things that make it distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I had the privilege of organizing economist amicus briefs in support of the parties challenging the administration’s most recent round of worldwide tariffs. The cases are Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump. and Oregon et al. v. Trump, both before the U.S. Court of International Trade.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Economists have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask: How much productivity growth should society desire? My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a... #econsky
project-syndicate.org
How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?
Michael R. Strain argues that the benefits of substantial gains would outweigh the costs in advanced economies.
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology- What should the Fed do? On the one hand, increasing interest rates in a weakening economy could be damaging. At the same time, it is imperative — after… www.ft.com/content/b9fd... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
3/ A self-reinforcing inflationary spiral is a real concern. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
2/ If an energy price shock caused by the Iran war leads the public to worry that inflation is accelerating, then that concern could itself cause inflation to accelerate. And the public seems primed to worry about exactly that.  www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
1/ The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky
ft.com
An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology
Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too
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