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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

6/ Paper here: www.nber.org/papers/w35135

Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

3/ Economic policy uncertainty spiked in the wake of the president’s efforts to undermine public trust in BLS data, as you would expect to see if trust in a crucial source of information about the economy had been eroded.

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

2/ Traders on Polymarket think the odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 14 are a measly 2 percent. If that doesn't happen, then Powell will stay on as chairman pro tempore after his term expires on May 15. This is the opposite of what Trump wants. Trump has only himself to blame. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do?

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

"Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?" Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine present important evidence on their research question, but also on economic methodology. See below for issues all empirical economists should be thinking about. Link to paper: www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Great @martinsandbu.ft.com column: "The economic consequences of Donald Trump’s second coming" Link: www.ft.com/content/0892... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

15/ Check out the whole paper here: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

13/ Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013) find an average reduction in manufacturing employment of 90,000 jobs per year from 1990 to 2007. But in a typical month, five million workers separate from their employers. In the manufacturing sector, typical monthly separations are 351,000. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

12/ Does it look to you like wages have stagnated for decades? Does it look to you like NAFTA (1994) or China entering the WTO (2001) led to stagnation?

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

8/ The U.S. is not just producing more than ever before. Relative to other nations, the U.S. is a global manufacturing powerhouse.

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

7/ Some supporters of protectionism seem to think that because manufacturing employment has been declining for decades, the U.S.’s ability to produce has also been declining. This is false. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

6/ And why should manufacturing employment receive so much attention?

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

5/ Another way to think about this: Trade obviously did not cause the big downward trend in manufacturing employment. Look at the chart below. Show me the effect of NAFTA or China entering the WTO? So if trade wasn't the cause, then trade wars are unlikely to be the solution. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

3/ The employment losses from higher input prices and retaliation will outweigh employment gains from import protection.

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

🚨🚨 My new paper, "The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment" is hot off the presses. A 🧵 Link: www.aei.org/wp-content/u... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

"The U.S. is giving up on taxing inheritances," by @jeffstein.bsky.social. Link: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

6/ Heckman's "incest coefficient" table. One-third of papers published in the QJE had at least one coauthor with a Harvard PhD. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

"From prosperity to austerity: Trump’s tone shifts ahead of tariff impacts" Link: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

1/ Friends, the lack of viewpoint diversity in the humanities and social sciences -- including in economics departments, and especially in public policy schools -- is a scandal. It is a major obstacle to universities performing their teaching and research missions. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

S&P 500 change, Inauguration Day through April #econsky www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

"Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump's 'Golden Age' Is Giving Way to Distress," by @nicktimiraos.bsky.social, Alex Leary, & Chip Cutter. Link: www.wsj.com/economy/wall... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

1. Over his first two months in office, President Biden's approval rating was flat. Over the last two months, President Trump's approval rating is clearly trending down. 2. The blue line is above the red line. Source: www.nationalreview.com/corner/look-... @nationalreview.bsky.social #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

“I think what we’re seeing is incompetence.” "Trump has a plan to remake the economy. But he’s not explaining it very well," by @davidjlynch.bsky.social Link: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

"Investors get the jitters over Donald Trump’s approach to dollar: President expressed frustration about greenback’s strength before taking office, but its decline is not by design." Link: www.ft.com/content/55b5...

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

The behavior of the United States in recent weeks has been shameful and appalling. Link: time.com/7265679/sate... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

"Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook," by @bencasselman.bsky.social & @colbylsmith.bsky.social. Link: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/b... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

“The fundamental political problem facing the president is that his policies and his erratic messages about future policy are colliding with economic reality.” "4 things to watch for in Trump’s address to Congress," by Amber Phillips: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

The S&P 500 stock index erased all of the gains it had made since President Trump won the 2024 election in November.

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

"Trump’s tariff tactics carry higher economic risks than during his first term," by Paul Wiseman and @chrisrugaber.bsky.social: abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Support Project Syndicate (@projectsyndicate.bsky.social). "For every donation, large or small, you’ll get one year of digital access to Project Syndicate for free – because the world needs informed perspectives now more than ever." Link: donations.cafamerica.org/project-synd...

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Chart below: Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for DC and for Maryland+Virginia, indexed to Jan 25. There is no evidence that DOGE/Trump has weakened the labor market in Maryland & Virginia. Claims are certainly rising in DC, which could be because of DOGE layoffs. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

1/ "Universities, colleges took prestige and public support for granted. Now they are paying the price." I would encourage professors and university administrators to read @meganmccardle.bsky.social's latest column. Much/most of it rings true to me. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Reuters/Ipsos poll: 53 percent of Americans oppose Elon Musk's DOGE task force, including 52 percent of independents. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

Mr. Putin is a monster and a war criminal. He is believed to have taken several thousand Ukrainian children, illegally holding them in Russia. He is a dictator. He murders political enemies. He quashes dissent and freedom of speech. He has territorial ambitions. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Mr. Putin started the war. If you think governments should secure freedom of speech, then you should oppose Mr. Putin more than you oppose European leaders. Mr. Putin is a dictator. Mr. Putin is also a murderer. And a war criminal. #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Pope Francis's full letter to the American bishops on immigration: www.vatican.va/content/fran... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

An estimated 1,000 remain separated. Heartbreaking. Horrifying. Inhumane. Un-American. "One of Mr. Trump's first moves was to rescind the task force working to reunite families and provide benefits to those who had been torn apart in his first term." Link: www.wsj.com/politics/pol... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

2/ ✨ The Age of AI, an update: A Quick Q&A with … economist Michael Strain Link: fasterplease.substack.com/p/the-age-of... #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

Anything less than the best is a felony. (Teaching my kids the classics!) #econsky

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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

President Trump is a true mercantilist. He thinks the U.S. should not import goods it can make here at home. Many GOP politicians are going along with this. But the President has not convinced many other Republicans that his views are correct. Link: www.bbc.com/news/article... #econsky

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