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Matt Graham

@mattgraham.bsky.social
2.6K followers 3.5K following 550 posts

Political science, survey methods. m-graham.com

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Reposted by Matt Graham
Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 09/10/2026
How did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A thoughtful provocation: not disclosing about LLM use or nonuse is either dishonest (if you actually did use it) or reflects carelessness (if you actually didn’t use it). pmaronow.github.io/llm-disclosu...
pmaronow.github.io
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
DoorDash spent $1.4M trying to stop Zohran Mamdani from becoming mayor. This week's historic $131.5M enforcement action against DoorDash for underpaying NYC delivery workers shows why. Yet another reminder that the only thing that can beat organized money is organized people.
theintercept.com
DoorDash Spent $1.4 Million Trying to Stop Mamdani From Becoming Mayor. Now We Know Why.
In a wage-theft settlement, DoorDash now has to pay its workers around 100 times what it spent trying to beat Zohran Mam
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
No more calling these platforms "social media"
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Nicolas Hénin @nicolashenin.net · 17/09/2026
Nice campaign by the Norwegian Consumer Council about the declining lifespan of products. Enjoy!
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Trump's attacks on US higher ed, and Chinese scholars in particular, has been a gift to China's efforts to surge past the US on science and innovation. One report from Renmin University summed it up: "Thank Trump." 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/china-than...
donmoynihan.substack.com
China: “Thank Trump”
The big winner of Trump’s assault on higher ed is America’s chief geopolitical rival
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
doi.org/10.2307/1959...
doi.org
Comment: The Status of Nonattitudes | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Comment: The Status of Nonattitudes - Volume 68 Issue 2
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
In 1974 Converse wrote a great description of most of the summaries of his work that would appear over the next 52 years
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Artful point but not true. 99.999% of Rs have never read the documents. They just hear and believe how comparisons frame them. (Yes I was intentional about the number of 9s and it isn't enough)
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
It's too bad JK Rowling didn't read these books as a kid
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A civilian geography professor was fired from West Point for pushing back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change.
stripes.com
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This classic pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30545967/ (The authors' point is that you don't need an RCT for this question but it's subtle)
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma when jumping from aircraft: randomized controlled trial - PubMed
Parachute use did not reduce death or major traumatic injury when jumping from aircraft in the first randomized evaluation of this intervention. However, the trial was only able to enroll participants on small stationary aircraft on the ground, suggesting cautious extrapolation to high altitude jump …
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Reposted by Matt Graham
ProPublica @propublica.org · 25/08/2026
Oil companies are blasting millions of gallons of toxic waste each year underground — less than a half-mile from Enid, Oklahoma’s water wells. But to protect their city, officials must appeal to the state agency that created the problem. (Published June with @readfrontier.bsky.social)
propublica.org
To Protect Its Drinking Water, This City Has to Appeal to the Oil Regulators That Put It at Risk
Oklahoma restricts oil field wastewater injection within a half-mile of public water wells. Regulators have let companies do it anyway. But in the city of Enid, officials are pushing back against one ...
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Would love to see the % DK or other middle option, if offered. I'd guess that a year ago a lot fewer people offered an opinion at all, which is a sign that those who DID offer an opinion were also less sure of it (doi.org/10.1093/poq/...)
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Choosing your own projects. Freedom to pursue the right answer without worrying about stakeholder interests. Helping students. Control over time
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
You can’t talk about debt without talking about how we got into a bad predicament, and there’s only one correct answer: tax cuts enacted this century
U.S. debt is on track to reach historic levels
Debt held by the public as a percentage of the gross domestic product, 1792-2055
- Historical - • Projected → Without Bush and Trump tax cuts
187.55%
180%
160
140
120|
100
80
99.38%
60
• 47.85%
40
20
0
1800|
1820 1840 1860|
1880
1900 1920 1940|
1960|
1980 2000 2020 2040|
Hover or click to see values.
• Notes:
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Committee on Taxation, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve, the Yale Budget Lab, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. A full list of sources is available here.
Chart: Center for American Progress
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Grim account of the politics of Great Salt Lake depletion
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
To argue w myself tho, I guess if the accusatiob is hypocrisy, comparisons between people w pro and anti science attitudes are not necessarily what we need
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
That % might be high but correlation requires variation. My guess would be that that people w pro science attitudes dislike AI less on avg / make more accurate factual guesses. Even if I am wrong about the sign, would be surprised if the strength of the relationship justified this narrative
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
I think he is making a statement about voter perceptions of relative importance
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Just my two cents, this reads like wild stereotyping. I bet the % of people with all the traits listed in this screen shot is less than 1
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Distribution
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 14/08/2026
Two married professors and their son are being held in ICE detention, despite being legal permanent residents and having no criminal records. All, apparently, because their mom/MIL was a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979, before they were even born. www.thenation.com/article/soci...
thenation.com
One Woman’s Message From the Hell of ICE Detention
My husband, son, and I have been locked up for months—despite being permanent residents with no criminal record. It is an unendurable, unending nightmare.
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
An extension, perhaps, of @mattgraham.bsky.social's excellent POQ article on % undecided and attitude strength here: academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
academic.oup.com
“We Don’t Know” Means “They’re Not Sure”
Abstract. The most familiar approach to handling respondent uncertainty about survey questions, the “don’t know” (DK) response, has an inconvenient feature
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
@mattgraham.bsky.social has shown a lot of stated endorsements of false claims work this way Sometimes people are true believers but a lot of the time they're making flimsy “miseducated guesses” based on what they’ve heard and change their minds or bounce around later doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Measuring Misperceptions? | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Misperceptions? - Volume 117 Issue 1
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Scenes from a personalist regime; The President”s personal lawyer is sworn into high office by another of the Presidents’s personal lawyers, now a judge
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I'll be spending the second half of October in the UK for a short tour to present my new book project, Immigration for Realists. If you'd like to organize a seminar or meet up, let me know!
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WRI Climate @wriclimate.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
🌿 Nature isn’t just threatened by climate change. It’s also one of our strongest defenses against it. WRI President & CEO Ani Dasgupta explains how nature can help protect communities from extreme heat, wildfires and floods: bit.ly/3Sq6vjR
bit.ly
The Best Defense Against 'Natural' Disasters Is Nature Itself
Many leaders think of nature as a thing that needs protecting, when we really should be thinking about how nature can protect us. Nature restoration is an underutilized solution to the world's growing...
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Having fun brainstorming new research designs based on reviewer comments. Peer review is great.
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Starting a thread for uses of AI in survey research that I would like to see, but (to the best of my knowledge, and I've looked) do not either exist yet, or work well enough yet.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
It's probably just outdated
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Jim Goldgeier @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Classic situation in these types of regimes where people only tell the boss what he wants to hear because they are afraid not to.Trump hasn’t set himself up to get good information because he doesn’t want it, and got rid of people who could advise him properly www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Trump, Hegseth clashed at Camp David over Iran missile depletion concerns
At a Camp David summit this weekend, President Trump demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over extreme munitions shortages.
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Leah Stokes @leahstokes.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The conventional wisdom is the Democrats' big climate law failed to deliver votes and then died. That's wrong. My new study finds its factories moved 2.5 million votes—more than Trump's margin. And the law's still alive. My latest in @theatlantic.com. Gift link! www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Bidenomics Was More Successful Than People Think
Conventional wisdom holds that Joe Biden’s bet on climate investment was a bust. The data suggest otherwise.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Get off social media and learn something! Starts in 10 minutes. tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Murshed Zaheed @murshedz.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
“Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47-year history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” Right now people in blue states are basically paying federal taxes as if they’re colonized territories of red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
Trump has denied most disaster requests from Democratic-led states

A graph  showing Presidential approval rates for disaster requests from Democratic-led states and Republican-led states

Source: POLITICO's E&E News analysis of FEMA records
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Republicans Against Trumpism @rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The President of the United States repeatedly lying about American citizens and trying to lock them up in a pathetic attempt to cover up a botched renovation of the Reflection Pool that wasted millions of taxpayer dollars should be a much bigger story in the news.
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Quite.
At a time when some British universities, including Exeter, have targeted the humanities in recent budget cuts in favour of subjects such as engineering, LSE remains focused on the social sciences.
"We should recognise that the educational provision that comes from social sciences, humanities and the arts is equally relevant and important to long-term economic growth," Kramer said.
"Just inventing things doesn't mean you've created the environment in which they flourish. The question of how to keep start-ups in the UK is about economics, politics and law."
At a time of labour market disruption partly driven by the uptake of artificial intelligence, he pointed to recruiters' calls for skills from graduates such as critical thinking, communication, collaboration and an interest in continued learning.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
One week from today! tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Lauren Miller Karalunas @lmillerkaralunas.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Don't let this report slip through the news cycle unnoticed: federal officials recently admitted that the Trump administration canceled billions in federal grants to states "based solely" on whether they backed the president in the 2024 election. This is a big deal. 🧵1/6
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Writing a paper introduction is more art than science, but a good formula gets you most of the way there. Today's blog post: a paragraph-by-paragraph template that is used pretty commonly, plus the mistakes I see most often. 🧵 #EconSky deryugina.com/a-two-for-on...
deryugina.com
A two-for-one blog post on writing introductions – Tatyana Deryugina
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Trump admin has quietly drafted new rules governing the census expected to recategorize millions of immigrants (both unauthorized and legal) as not actually living here in the United States This would allow the GOP to steal congressional seats & redirect hundreds of billions of federal dollars
thebulwark.com
Inside Trump’s Stealth Trick to Rig the Census—and Congress
The administration’s latest power grab is disguised as boring technical guidance.
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Erik Ostrom @erikostrom.com · 26/07/2026
Also
“Ghent is calm yet lively, tranquil yet filled with pleasant sound. One resident went so far as to tell Filip Watteeuw he was "the best orchestral composer the city has ever had," because the noise created by excessive automobile traffic had been replaced by an urban symphony of people talking, bicycle gears cranking, and birds singing. While we were in Ghent, we stood at the intersection of two major bike routes.
There we heard the joyful sound of children
laughing and playing, presumably from a schoolyard or playground just out of sight. It was a beautiful reminder that cities aren't loud, cars are loud.”
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The people sending these texts give less than 2% of the money to candidates data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-mother...
data4democracy.substack.com
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
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Sam G. Howard @samghoward.riliberator.com · 24/07/2026
This is the drum Adam Bonica and others have been beating (I think Lee Drutman also had a piece on this as well).
data4democracy.substack.com
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Vehicle miles traveled per person nearly doubled between 1970 and 2005
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
If you're on social media right now you might be free for this webinar 2 weeks from now. tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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