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Cyrus Samii

@cdsamii.bsky.social
4.4K followers 1.7K following 588 posts

NYU Politics prof. Methods to inform policy. Experiments on governance and conflict management innovations. cyrussamii.com

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 12/09/2026
Program's up! 30+ teams share evidence abt impacts on health, educ, & econ + community response. Great folks @ziibiing.com @ottergoose.net @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social @chrisuggen.bsky.social @casemcnich.bsky.social @ngraetz.bsky.social @craigstetter.bsky.social docs.google.com/document/u/1...
Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN

Conference Date: Sept 22, 2026

Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs

Purpose

In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began a significant, sustained agent surge in Minnesota that affected the daily lives of many residents, but had severe impacts on immigrant communities and communities of color.

This one-day, in-person convening provides researchers from across disciplines and organizations with an opportunity to share and discuss research related to the effects of Operation Metro Surge and Operation PARRIS.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Great thread with follow up readings to the viral NHJ article.
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii
Gwyneth McClendon @gmcclendon.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
NYU is hiring in American Politics! Deadline October 6. See more details here: apply.interfolio.com/193724 @rozenas.bsky.social @cdsamii.bsky.social @sanfordgordon.bsky.social @bryantjmoy.bsky.social @awilke.bsky.social @stasavage.bsky.social @jatucker.bsky.social @peterrosendorff.bsky.social
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
❤️ Seen in Boerum Hill this afternoon.
Poster with Bert and Ernie in sunglasses riding in car with subtitle The Horrors Persist But so Do We.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Looking forward to presenting this work on Thursday (not Friday) at UoT. It’s a pre analysis plan actually, with the theoretical model motivating the intervention and details on our measurement, methods, and targeting strategy.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Horrific.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Alcaraz v Shelton - wild match. Alcaraz served poorly and made lots of uncharacteristic errors. But there’s no doubt that he was confounded by Shelton’s serve and next level athleticism.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Jovic v Eala was elite! Wow! And for Jovic to have such a complete game at 18 is breathtaking.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Tagger v Anisimova shaping up to be as good as hoped. Two smart and crafty players.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
An utterly reasonable take by MIT’s committee on AI and education. The argument about resisting temptation to replace RAs with AI was thoughtful: RAs are an investment in scientific community. I also liked the call to think about spaces and tools for offline learning and evaluation.
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
@acalacino.bsky.social myself and others have crunched the numbers (work in progress, see sources and deets here: osf.io/preprints/so...) and have some hard evidence of that: decline of climate change in news reporting since 2023 is esp. dramatic in the Global North ⬇️
Patterns of climate reporting in Global North vs Global South HQ news matched to GDELT climate tag articles. For notes see "When the Tail Wags the Dog: Climate Exposureand News Media Behavior in the Global South", Anthony Calacino, Mats Ahrenshop, Federica Genovese, Hayley Pring (work in progress)See Calacino, Ahrenshop, Genovese and Pring. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/37juf_v1
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Terrific round up of issues in using short term experimental results to infer long run effects. The issues and references could be a whole course.
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Jonathan S Doucette @jdoucette.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
What effect sizes can a design reliably detect, and how does that compare to the smallest effect size of interest? These questions are rarely pondered outside of experiments. I (with assistance from Claude) wrote an R package, "simpower", that helps with this: github.com/faranordk/si....
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Paper Skygest Team @paper-feed.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
**Please repost** If you're enjoying Paper Skygest -- our personalized feed of academic content on Bluesky -- we'd appreciate you reposting this! We’ve found that the most effective way for us to reach new users and communities is through users sharing it with their network
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
The new Alsan and Neberai paper on why the US doesn't have national health insurance offers an interesting template for research on the origins of institutions academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
academic.oup.com
Why Doesn’t the United States Have National Health Insurance? The Political Role of the American Medical Association
Abstract. This article examines how the American Medical Association (AMA) helped shape the development of the U.S. health insurance system in the critical
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Just thinking about that Beraja and Yuchtman paper (see previous post): politics of regulation hinge on who has more stake in the innovators’ profits vs in recouping value from the appropriated resource.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
What a *great* paper by Beraja and Yuchmtan from the NBER SI -- "Growth at the Resource Frontier". conference.nber.org/conf_papers/...
conference.nber.org
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
“.. nothing matters more to markets at present than the AI buildout. It’s such a sudden and massive stimulus .., Columbia Business School’s Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh argues that without it, the US would be in recession.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
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ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴍɪʟʟɪᴍᴇᴛ ✡️☮️❤️ @dlmillimet.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
The current issues of @aeajournals.bsky.social J Eco Perspectives has a nice primer on weak instruments and IV more generally. One of the "Don'ts" for applied researchers is copied below: don't search over a pool of instruments for a "strong" one and then go with that IV estimate.
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Melody Huang @melodyyhuang.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
New working paper with @corymccartan.com on the Gaussian Process limit of BART! (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees... not the Bay Area Rapid Transit sadly) arxiv.org/abs/2607.28844
arxiv.org
Seeing the Forest for the Trees: The Gaussian Process Limit of BART
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous theoretical work has attempted to explain BART's superior p...
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Reading the essay, my take is that the issue is poor methodological and analytical standards. Economics and increasingly political science have pursued social goals with rigor. Psych has gotten much better over the past decade.
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Adam L @adam-lg.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
"Over time, I have reluctantly concluded that my optimism was naïve. I now see evidence-based medicine as a deeply ill enterprise." Manski throwing bombs 💣💣💣 arxiv.org/abs/2607.23660 #statssky 📈📉
 I critique a set of entrenched methodological conventions that collectively create systemic dysfunction in statistical research for clinical decisions. These include: (1) the prevalent use of hypothesis tests to compare treatments, (2) remoteness from patient care of the methods used to evaluate the accuracy of predictions of patient outcomes, (3) poor practice of meta-analysis to combine findings across studies, and (4) widespread research with incredible certitude. It appears that the dysfunction is held in place by three factors: (i) rudimentary instruction in statistical methodology received by medical students and residents, (ii) reliance of clinical researchers on consulting biostatisticians, wo act as statistical gatekeepers in evaluation of grant proposals and paper submissions, and (iii) institutional practices of research funding agencies, medical journals, and governmental bodies that regulate medical treatment. I conjecture that systemic changes are necessary to break the existing impasse, moving statistical research to a better equilibrium.
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
📖 Nearly 3 years after the publication of Causal Analysis (MIT Press), I'd like to highlight the lecture slides accompanying the book. Available here as PDF and editable TeX files, together with datasets & code in R, Python, & Stata: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm... @mitpress.bsky.social
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii
Dean Yang @deanyang.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
If you're a development economist, join @ideadevecon.bsky.social! In particular, students and early-career scholars. Share this with anyone you know who should be part of the community!👇
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Sinner’s win today was so impressive. Hard to imagine how anyone could have done more than Zverev: check out the stats. Rallying consistently, with 135mph serves on the lines, 115mph second serves when needed, and 85mph forehands. Not enough.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I learned today that conventional nuclear reactors may need to be shut down in heat waves because of the consequences of heated water emissions and inefficiency when external temp is high. A major problem, no? www.lefigaro.fr/societes/un-...
lefigaro.fr
Un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Golfech, près de Toulouse, arrêté en raison de la canicule
«Les conditions climatiques de ces derniers jours ont entraîné une montée importante de la température de la Garonne qui devrait atteindre 28°C, ce vendredi», a justifié EDF.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Brilliant analysis. “Moving from polarization to radicalization shifts the remedy from compromise, encouraging civility, and bridging divides to confronting antidemocratic actors, safeguarding targeted groups, and defending institutional integrity.” (I’d toss “populism” onto the trash pile too.)
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Excellent post. The “reflective” vs “formative” distinction is one I’ve tried to make in the past but not nearly as eloquently. And the fact that Anderson’s ICW index can dampen power by upweighting noise is an important problem that should be better understood.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Lovely time catching up with friends and colleagues at the inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social meeting in Belfast. Came away with some paper ideas as well. Now on to the Univ. of Kent DERECK Development, Conflict and the Political Economy of Development workshop. research.kent.ac.uk/development-...
research.kent.ac.uk
Development Economics Research Centre - Research at Kent
A large group of economists with a diverse set of perspectives and approaches to the field.
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Yale ISPS @ispsyale.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Why What Works in One Place Doesn’t Always Work Elsewhere. @melodyyhuang.bsky.social hosts a conference on external validity: bit.ly/4xK8aAO @cdsamii.bsky.social @awilke.bsky.social
Naoki Egami speaks in front of a projection screen covered in equations
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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
We had lots of fun doing egap.org/learning-days/ again this year with 25 students from across the continent All training material is open access: egap.github.io/learningdays... FR / EN slides, exercises. Huge thanks to Brice Bado for hosting; @vinarceneaux.bsky.social for leading & the whole team:
learning days instructors Vincent Alyssa Adikath Yannick Brice Mac Vin
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Morocco looking sharp again this time around
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Again like in game 3, Knicks can’t figure out how to get through Spurs high press. They get stuck scrambling between half court and three point line almost every possession.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
When the methods paper to review is from a Word doc…
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
I am so very sorry to hear this about a beloved colleague, Raul. I had the opportunity to work with him over the past 15 years through the @egap.bsky.social network, where always brought a critical mindset and reminded us about the human side of our task as social scientists.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Fonseca - Novak was epic!!!
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Participated in “Perspectives on External Validity” workshop yesterday, organized by @melodyyhuang.bsky.social at @ispsyale.bsky.social isps.yale.edu/events/2026/...
isps.yale.edu
ISPS Conference Workshop: “Perspectives on External Validity in the Social Sciences” | Institution for Social and Policy Studies
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Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) @egap.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
We had an insightful afternoon reflecting on what EGAP-style interventions have taught us, and where we go from here in the current development landscape!
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Just wrapped up another year of Quant 2, my PhD-level causal inference course. Lots of updates to the literature this year, did an "estimator tournament" as part of an assignment on DID estimators, and included regular in-class pen and paper exercises. Materials here: cyrussamii.com?page_id=4190
cyrussamii.com
[2026 Spring] POLS GA 1251 Quant II – Cyrus Samii
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I've been enjoying the Paper2Audio LLM-assisted text-to-speech app for listening to papers, book chapters, etc. A nice feature is that it constructs verbal summaries of tables, figures, and equations. www.paper2audio.com
paper2audio.com
Paper2Audio - Free text to speech for PDFs, EPUBs, and websites
Read aloud text, PDF, EPUB or web articles with AI voices. Free text to speech reader for accurate narration of complex docs and books. No ads, no paywalled voices.
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Michael Wiebe @michaelwiebe.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
🚨Replication alert🚨 I'm pleased to announce that my replication of Moretti (2021) is now accepted as a comment at AER. I find ten issues in the paper. My comment focuses on two major problems; in the appendix, I document eight (relatively) minor problems. 1/
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Useful rundown of issues in the “science of scaling” interventions, from Rasul. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
From field experiments to policy interventions at scale
A major advance in recent decades in the social sciences has been the use of field experiments for causal evaluation of policy interventions. Such interventions might be targeted to individuals, house...
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Had no idea that the best data science podcast is back 😀 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
podcasts.apple.com
Linear Digressions
Technology Podcast · Updated Weekly · 5eaabb50-0561-11f1-a0bc-cb0c6e332f5b
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Good analysis of the institutional conundrum facing the Iranian leadership after Khamenei’s death: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/k...
project-syndicate.org
Ayatollah Khamenei’s Deadly Legacy
Pegah Banihashemi thinks Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death will bring meaningful change only if his governing framework is dismantled.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
If you are looking for a way to do something meaningful amidst the current events, I’ll suggest again for you to just sit and watch “It Was Just an Accident.”
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Update to my Quant 2 course: I used to do an Angrist and Pischke style discussion of regression models and treatment effects. Dumped that (or actually made it a recitation/review), brought in double machine learning instead. cyrussamii.com?page_id=4190
cyrussamii.com
[2026 Spring] POLS GA 1251 Quant II – Cyrus Samii
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
“Affective polarization” is a lot of syllables when the word “hate” is right there.
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Dr. Alexandra “Ali” Cirone @alicirone.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
For anyone looking for postdocs for their students, over the next few months LSE “fellow” positions will start being listed. Research + teaching but 2-3 year runway. The new Global School of Sustainability has 5 new ones posted now! jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
GSOS LSE Fellow
GSOS LSE Fellow, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><spa...
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Excited to see this out. The paper was a huge lift. If you’d be surprised that citizen empowerment *increases* the share that pay taxes in a place like Kinshasa, check out the details in Soeren’s thread.
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 15/02/2026
Folks, some news. No, not that kind of news – what do you think this is, LinkedIn? It's this: 1. The applied causal graphs workshop deadline is 28th Feb. so get your abstracts in and hang out with us in Potsdam this May. Form and description is below 2. @dagophile.bsky.social is giving a keynote 🥳
applied-causal-graphs.de
Applied Causal Graphs 2026
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