iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 1m

Ppl really underrate how popular Trump is right now; he’s less popular than Bush in 2006 and is hovering around Bush 2008 popularity post-Lehman Brothers

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I have been seeing a lot of people not trusting the polls in the Midwest, which is totally fair given recent history. But if all you knew were Trump's national net approval, there would be absolutely nothing weird about any of the polling in any race right now. wertwhile.substack.com/p/on-polling...

wertwhile.substack.com

On Polling Error: Zoom Out

Donald Trump is in his second term overseeing high gas prices and well above target inflation, a foreign war nobody likes, and was elected despite his deep unpopularity to begin with.

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pleonasm @pleonasmical.bsky.social · 23m

I love living in a pluralistic democracy!! America is the state of many nations!!

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 41m

When the JLVRA is passed in the 2029 HR 1 democracy reform/good govt package and the requirements for other language ballots are significantly loosened so Spanish/Korean/Vietnamese/Yoruba/Hindi/Creole ballots are commonplace >>>!!!

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 47m

Ravid is a Trump mouthpiece but the fact he’s reporting that Trump met with national security officials in Camp David on Yemen is bad…..

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 49m

Houthis not just attacked the Yanbu export terminal but a major strike has been launched at multiple Saudi Aramco energy facilities today, with major fires being reported Saudi have been refusing to admit the attacks but major embarrassment for them and expect more oil disruption

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Jack @jtenroon.bsky.social · 1h

Donald Trump might have singlehandedly made Texas a light blue/purple state

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 1h

#earlyvote morning update 10/3: at least 1,131,615 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

election.lab.ufl.edu

UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 1h

There will be a polling error but like 2025, it will be in favor of Dems 😉

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Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 1h

If you're wondering about the Kansas result, allow me to explain: The Democratic candidate is a Methodist megapastor who also appears to be well liked by his 20,000+ congregation — and many others in the state. I recently spoke to him and some of his congregants: religionnews.com/2026/09/23/h...

religionnews.com

How megapastor Adam Hamilton could break the GOP's hold on Kansas

LEAWOOD, Kansas (RNS) — While Democrats have long been considered a longshot for statewide races in Kansas, the Rev. Adam Hamilton's candidacy has proven unexpectedly competitive.

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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 1h

and in turn making it a normal systems safety problem also means that existing law and regulatory frameworks are applied, and the entire alchemical-occultic frame and the political economy it is aligned with is dropped in favor of treating the industry as other countries across the world have

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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 1h

its because bringing in people from outside the cult turns it into a normal systems safety problem

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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 1h

this is the first one of these "the alarm must be raised" pieces that actually makes sense, largely because he says something obvious: no one at the company has any clue about how safety engineering works

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 2h

And to think I came on here to post about confirmed hits not just to Yanbu export terminal but also larger ARAMCO facilities this morning :/

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 2h

If we have multilingual ballots, then we should poll multilingually too esp in races where Hispanic and Asian vote are significant so we don’t miss voters like we did with Asian voters in the 2025 NYC primary

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 2h

polling in Spanish is not a revolutionary innovation that pollsters are incapable of, those awful Emerson polls of Texas exist in the same world where Emerson folks have said that they sample in Spanish... but just didn't for *Texas* if some pollsters can do it, they all can, bare minimum quality

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 2h

I can't just make every post today Norman Rockwell man but that's basically me when it comes to the idea that polls should be sampling in Spanish in Texas, Florida, and other similar states yes, I will throw out / pick apart English-only polls of states you very obviously need Spanish in. gasp!

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Aaron Huertas @aaronhuertas.bsky.social · 2h

And I really don't meant to be morbid here, but this is a well-studied topic and the only method with a 0% botch rate is firing squad. deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/b...

deathpenaltyinfo.org

Botched Executions | Death Penalty Information Center

It is estimated that 3% of U.S. executions in the period from 1890 to 2010 were botched. In the 2014 book, Gruesome Spectacles: Botched Executions and…

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Aaron Huertas @aaronhuertas.bsky.social · 2h

Was thinking along similar lines when I first saw this story. The use of lethal injection -- and in previous eras electrocution -- were promoted as more humane ways of performing executions, but at a technical level they are all barbarous, prone to failure and clear violations of the 8th Amendment.

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 3h

Imo this is the true danger signal for the GOP in double digit Trump states in lower profile governor races, Dems are leading comfortably except in Kansas, Trump +22, where they are down by 4 This is shifting from “elite blue wave” to “generational rebuke” esp considering Vermont is close

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 3h

NYT: “GOP you are in danger in all of these, girl lmao” Have fun, RSCC!!!

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 3h

Love NYT confirming that the over/under is 52 seats for Dems and the true battle is Midwest/Plain States (+Florida) I assume Nebraska is polling similarly to Kansas

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 4h

Trump +9 recall….so all the Iowa polls are real and this is a Tossup/more like Lean D race

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 4h

Murkowski you are toast come 2028

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 4h

Ok we are getting NEBRASKA *and* we are getting FLORIDA BITCHES!!!

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 4h

Which other recent poll of Texas used Spanish Folks may think I'm some extrapolating "unskewer" when I say Hinojosa by mid single digits but I'm really not lol I offer pretty conservative projections all things considered! I just want good polls. bsky.app/profile/poll... bsky.app/profile/poll...

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 4h

Do y'all see this lol Hinojosa ran SEVEN points better here in the poll that's been sampling too R lately (NYT/Siena) vs the Dem affiliate (Change) Because NYT/Siena used Spanish and Change didn't. It's actually that simple. It's 28% of Texans who need it, folks. bsky.app/profile/hyde...

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 5h

Kansas Senate: NYT/SIENA HAS HAMILTON TIED WITH MARSHALL Hamilton leads by 6 in the undecideds!!!!!

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 5h

Talarico is up by 5.7 in the same poll Dems +1 on GCB (shift of 7 points in June) Trump +7 2024 recall vote

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 6h

It was so obvious to see that Vance’s attack on Nixon would backfire; thank you Vance for giving Angie the earned media she needs to close the fundraising gap And yes FLGOP strategists has compared Moody campaign to Joe Biden

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Cam Schlittler Enthusiast (NYY 2-0) @njstopwonk.bsky.social · 12h

“I am proof positive of what happens when government does the right thing” If we’re ever ever gonna see Florida go blue again it’s gonna be this year. Because we have not at least in my lifetime ever put up someone as real, as committed, and as dedicated to doing the right thing as Angie Nixon

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 12h

Yall watch this Angie Nixon clip from CBS Miami: “I get so emotional bc I don’t like to see people struggle the way I struggled….I left my mom at a very young age when she was being attacked by my dad, bc of that I run toward bullies.”

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 13h

Adam Hamilton in R+22 state: Filibuster is used by Republicans to perpetuate bloodshed in an affront to God Roy Cooper in a swing state:

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 16h

Like God, it is so frustrating bc this ruins the point of polls: it’s a best chance to actually capture what the public thinking- why cook results Like in 2024, when pollsters got flack for tossup NJ results, I defended bc they followed the data (& were right) Why cower now?

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 16h

yeah I think this is gonna be reverse 2020 every public pollster is hedging like they're a GOP internal. Meanwhile, private polling predicts apocalyptic results for the GOP, which matches every shred of material evidence and the GOP and Dems own actions private polls knew 2020 was close. Welp!

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Alex O. Diaz @alexodiaz.bsky.social · 16h

Today I received a lit drop from Adriana Guzman Fralick (R) whom is running for Attorney General in NV. Her lit made no mention of being a Republican or MAGA. I'm curious to know what internal polling looks like for Republicans in Nevada if they're trying to hide the fact that they're Republicans.

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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 16h

If Democrats retake the Senate, then they need to follow the McConnell Rule: Block any GOP replacement until a Dem President wins in 2029

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 17h

KY-06 plus that internal: @clearlyashley.bsky.social prophecy beckons If this result plus Pinellas County flips back to Dems comfortably & St Lucie flips (both in FL)….it will be a good night bc both GOP-leaning white suburbanites and white working class are jumping off the Trump ship

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 18h

Going back to 2016 and explaining that there's been more Spanish-sampling polls of OHIO than there have been in Florida this cycle honestly I think that would be one of the more baffling things about this cycle to explain

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 18h

Maybe the youth will save us after all

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 18h

At best it’s 50-80% of pre-war levels and even then it doesn’t matter bc markets have finally (barely) priced in the cost: diesel needed to transport the oil is now crazy expensive ($3 to $34/barrel to ship to Asia), plus tolls exist, oil prices will be permanently elevated Goodbye cheap oil

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 18h

Young people hateeeeeee unnecessary rises in their cost of living and are starting to tune in? oh

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 18h

While I don't think our crosstab averages are gospel, I do find it interesting that on the age crosstab, most of the improvement for Dems in September was with young people. They could be the reason why in September, Dems went from a 5.5% lead, to a 9% lead. LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

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the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 18h

Dismantling ICE means dismantling the surveillance regime that powers it.

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 18h

Trump has always been credited for his unique coalition of classic Republicans and working class whites esp post 2020 when working class minorities entered the fold Now Trump has engineered a polycrisis through tariffs, immigration, and ofc Iran War to repulse them completely

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PlayfulPiano (he/him) @playfulpiano.bsky.social · 19h

So as the days go by, and election day comes and goes, let's take this cycle as a reminder: Never fight a war on two fronts. /fin

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