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Kody Carmody

@kcarmody.bsky.social
751 followers 505 following 122 posts

Monetary-fiscal interaction, macro-public, computational OLG. Aspirational interests in labor search, family, demographics, nonlinear dynamics, learning, uh, etc. PhD student at UVA! May end up bleating about lifting and cats more than econ. Sorry! he

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Reposted by Kody Carmody
undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 18h
On the microeconomic foundations of macro stabilisation: The Hall-Woodford prize in historical perspective beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2026/10/12/o...
beatricecherrier.wordpress.com
On the microeconomic foundations of macro stabilisation: The Hall-Woodford prize in historical perspective
“This year’s prize is about stabilization” was the sentence with which Ellen Moons, Secretary General of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, introduced the not-true-Nobel-but-Nobel-still prize f…
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John Mullahy @johnmullahy.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
"They use optical sensors to detect blood pulsing through your veins, and machine-learning models to analyze the data to estimate blood pressure. Like sleep staging, it’s an inference, not a direct measurement." www.wsj.com/health/welln...
wsj.com
Can Wearables Really Track Blood Pressure Without the Cuff? I Tested Them.
Health trackers can now alert you to shifts you can’t feel. Doctors warn the data might give you anxiety—or a false sense of security.
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
If you want to see a really good example of the big data paradox in action: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Unrepresentative big surveys significantly overestimated US vaccine uptake - Nature
An analysis of three surveys of COVID-19 vaccine behaviour shows that larger surveys overconfidently overestimated vaccine uptake, a demonstration of how larger sample sizes can paradoxicall...
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Rachel Leah Childers @donskerclass.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do-we-...
AI generated text in economics papers. 
Line chart showing share of papers with at least one window classified AI generated by Pangram.
arXiv econ share goes from 0 to nearly 50% from 2023 to July 2026.
NBER share goes from 0 to about 25%.Share AI generated text by subfield or program, 2025, 2026. Highest share in "Productivity and Innovation", 32%, lowest in "Macro and Monetary" 14%.
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Ada Palmer @adapalmer.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Wow! Texts are super rare for the Hittites, basically there’s just one archive and it’s 95% lists of prayer sacrifices to mountain gods, so this is really, really exciting!
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noam @noamchompers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Wish I loved anything as much as Weisberg hates academic publishing
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NBER @nber.org · 09/10/2026
Nearly one-third of US STEM PhD students now write their dissertations with AI. Rarer at top programs, more common for non-native English speakers. AI users are more likely to enter industry, from Daniel P. Gross, Dror Shvadron, and Hansen Zhang www.nber.org/papers/w35859
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UVA Economics @uvaeconomics.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Congratulations to our colleague Charlie Holt on being elected Fellow of the Econometric Society! www.econometricsociety.org/uploads/Fell...
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
I think the transaction account data is the most interesting. The 2019-2022 shift in median transaction account holdings was mostly a pandemic era support phenomena. But it's still pretty elevated 5 years out.
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Rachel Leah Childers @donskerclass.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
I'm running a reading group this semester on Mean Field Games, which economists call "heterogeneous agent models," for which mathematicians have a well-developed body of results that we should steal. I wrote notes on mathematical preliminaries for meeting 1: donskerclass.github.io/misc/MFGMath...
docs.google.com
UZH Macro/Finance Reading Group Fall 2026
UZH Macro/Finance Reading Group Fall 2026, Thursdays 12:15 Noon, Location: SOF-E15 Topic: Mean Field Games Organizers: Rachel Childers, Felix Kübler, et al Motivation: Mathematicians have develope...
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NBER @nber.org · 09/10/2026
Norway's controversial 2021–2024 reforms nearly doubled the tax on business wealth. Firms of affected owners did not invest less, and outmigration was limited to the very top, from Marius A. K. Ring www.nber.org/papers/w35854
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NBER @nber.org · 08/10/2026
As Japan shrinks and ages, young people and births cluster in big cities, leaving rural areas older, emptier, and costlier to sustain, from Elisa Giannone, Yuhei Miyauchi, Nuno Paixao, Xinle Pang, and Yuta Suzuki www.nber.org/papers/w35852
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The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Standard NK models find optimal inflation well below 2%, small welfare losses from business cycles and monetary policy is neutral in the long run. In a new paper, @mirkoabbritti, @egostino and Weber show all three conclusions break with endogenous growth & DNWR. 1/5
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NBER @nber.org · 07/10/2026
Who gains from accelerated math? Letting kids with top 20 percent math scores take algebra and geometry early raises calculus-taking and STEM/business degrees—but effects vary by non-cognitive skill, from David Card and Laura Giuliano www.nber.org/papers/w35847
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NBER @nber.org · 05/10/2026
Using a large sample of Canadian lottery winners to estimate the causal effects of a financial windfall on consumption, savings, and wage earnings, from Chakrabarti, d'Astous, Kroft, Kulkarni, Mikhed, Notowidigdo, Raina, and Scholnick www.nber.org/papers/w35836
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Discousre on this paper www.nature.com/articles/s41... on the site has convinced me that we desperately need a metascience movement for the metascientists.
nature.com
Investigating the replicability of the social and behavioural sciences - Nature
A large-scale study on the replicability of claims from social and behavioural science journals reports that about half of the results replicate in the same patterns as the original study.
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value plus discounted @akhilrao.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
something a little closer to home than usual
akhilrao.org
On the practice of benefit-cost analysis
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NBER @nber.org · 03/10/2026
Population projections often assume that future fertility rates will stop declining after falling below some threshold, but that is at odds with global historical patterns, from Diane Coffey, @MikeGeruso, Dean Spears, and Sangita Vyas www.nber.org/papers/w35824
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NBER @nber.org · 03/10/2026
A new model shows there's a welfare-maximizing rate of population growth, trading off higher output per worker against fewer workers per retiree, and that optimal rate may well be negative. Adding pay-as-you-go social security pushes it even lower, from Laurence M. Ball www.nber.org/papers/w35823
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Cosma Shalizi @cshalizi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Elsewhere: Generative sequence modeling for infinite memory processes via predictive states arxiv.org/abs/2609.38524
arxiv.org
Generative sequence modeling for infinite memory processes via predictive states
We consider estimating the one-step-ahead conditional distribution of a multivariate stochastic process. Many existing approaches rely on assumptions such as finite-range memory, sparsity, or additivi...
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 02/10/2026
Surely this chart will cheer folks up! Official inflation measures have been quite accurate relative to those based on alternative, more-detailed data. Seems inflation has actually been a bit LOWER than official estimates. @besttrousers.bsky.social
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Colin @colin-fraser.net · 30/09/2026
I really wasn’t trying to start a fight with Prof. Bender but now that she has created a long thread subtweeting me and her disciples are all yelling at me, let me just say that this is the crux right here. She seems to respond as though I am describing something a priori impossible.
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
First they came for our two-way fixed effects. Now they're coming for time fixed effects! #EconSky www.nber.org/papers/w35807
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NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026
Introducing the expanded Global Repository of Income Dynamics, a database of harmonized administrative-data statistics on income inequality, volatility, and mobility across 26 countries. Led by Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, Giovanni L. Violante, with country teams worldwide. www.grid-database.org
grid-database.org
GRID - Global Repository of Income Dynamics
GRID is an open-access database built from administrative records to study income inequality and income dynamics across the globe.
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Jeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In case anyone is interested, here is a new working paper on non-binary treatments with staggered interventions. Essentially, I show under what assumptions it is valid to estimate cohort x time dose-response functions. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
A Heterogeneous Slopes Approach to Difference-in-Differences with Non-Binary Treatments
I extend the approach of Wooldridge (2023, 2025) to allow for heterogeneous gains to treatment in the context of staggered interventions for non-binary treatmen
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
pick of this week's NBER WPs. The commoditization of labour: masaofukui.github.io/Commoditizat... Atlantic current collapse could be good for North Africa/Southern Europe bfi.uchicago.edu/working-pape... As of 2026, humanity is below replacement fertility. www.nber.org/papers/w35809
masaofukui.github.io
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David Beckworth @davidbeckworth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Imagine a central bank that fully unwinds QE and runs a 'demand-driven' operating system where banks determine total liquidity? Well, imagine no more! Meet the @riksbank.se and its Governor Erik Thedéen! youtu.be/AUJYZ4oHQiE?... (1/2)
youtu.be
Erik Thedéen on QE, Central Bank Independence, and Digital Payments | Macro Musings
YouTube video by Macro Musings with David Beckworth
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I enjoyed this conversation between @edouardmachery.bsky.social and @kevinzollman.com on social epistemology of science, nice way into issues people in the field are thinking about and how some of us think about them. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJpv...
youtube.com
Conversations at the Center - Social Epistemology and Pluralistic Ignorance
YouTube video by Center for Philosophy of Science
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NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026
Studying how aggregate financial conditions shape firm insurance and, through it, labor income risk, from Maarten Meeuwis, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt www.nber.org/papers/w35781
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NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026
In a new theory of bundling frictions, increasing productivity of cognitive skills explains changing patterns in within occupation wage inequality in the US, from Chris Edmond and Simon Mongey www.nber.org/papers/w35783
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Irwin (Bud) Collier @irwincollier.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
#EconSky #MITeconomics Peter Diamond and Eric Maskin co-taught the economics of uncertainty at MIT in the Fall of 1978. Their five page course reading list has been transcribed and posted. www.irwincollier.com/m-i-t-readin...
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Vivian Paulun @vivianpaulun.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🚨 Preprint alert! 👶🧠🌊 "The Emergence of a Distinction between Things and Stuff" osf.io/preprints/ps... So excited to share my first infant study, with the wonderful Sanghee Song and Liz Spelke.🎉 Do babies expect sand to behave differently from solid objects? 🧵1/5
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Manasvini Singh @vinisingh.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
New WP, just in time for #ASHEcon26! What started off as a project to learn LLM use for text analysis turned accidentally into a paper about stigma. [1/n]
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Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 23/09/2026
Great review of recent evidence on the role of standardized testing in college admissions. A recent paper by BU econ PhD student Ethan Lewis shows that adopting test optional admissions reduces STEM degree completions, particularly for under-represented minority students. Details in thread below.
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NBER @nber.org · 23/09/2026
Stablecoins may extend the dollar’s global reach, but history shows their stability and dollar dominance ultimately depend on credible institutions, not technology, from Michael D. Bordo and Carolyn Wilkins www.nber.org/papers/w35768
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Riley Acton @riacton.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Thrilled to be organizing this conference with Kalena Cortes, @loismiller.bsky.social, @camilantmorales.bsky.social, & @julia-turner.bsky.social, thanks to generous support from Ascendium! Send us any & all work on CCs! Descriptive, mixed methods, & interdisciplinary research encouraged. 🥳
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NBER @nber.org · 23/09/2026
Movements in short- and medium-term yields largely reflect changing interest-rate expectations, which are systematically inconsistent across maturities and horizons, from @pooyamolavi.bsky.social, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin www.nber.org/papers/w35766
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NBER @nber.org · 22/09/2026
New evidence from the 2023 Panel Study of Income Dynamics shows family-structure disparities in young-adult poverty have narrowed, while gaps in college completion persist, from Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine, and Alden Q. Barson www.nber.org/papers/w35765
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NBER @nber.org · 21/09/2026
Using a representative sample of Americans to conduct and analyze a survey on gender attitudes, from Joshua T. Dean, Christine L. Exley, Muriel Niederle, and Heather Sarsons www.nber.org/papers/w35761
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I want more people to talk about @dolanecon.bsky.social's Controversial @liberalcurrents.com Article: www.liberalcurrents.com/sustainable-...
liberalcurrents.com
Sustainable Fiscal Policy for America
Chapter 10 (pp. 78–83) from The Reconstruction Papers.
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NBER @nber.org · 19/09/2026
No evidence that the Medicaid expansions had a beneficial effect on mortality, but the Affordable Care Act, net of Medicaid expansion, reduced mortality, from Anuj Gangopadhyaya, Cuiping Schiman, and Robert Kaestner www.nber.org/papers/w35751
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NBER @nber.org · 18/09/2026
Arguing that automation calls for more progressive labor income taxation: larger Earned Income Tax Credit subsidies at the bottom, lower taxes in the middle, and higher taxes at the top, from Henrik Kleven and @omzidar.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35747
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This is new from scientists in my department: economic data from 300 households and 15 years of forestry/climate records. Really trying to do both the human and the ecology in human ecology.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Happy to see others emphasizing traceability (Nachvollziehbarkeit) over simple reproducibility. Let’s make fetch happen!
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Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Here's the full ungated PDF of the paper... papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Class Gap in Career Progression: Evidence from US Academia
Unlike gender or race, class background is rarely a focus of research on career progression, or of DEI efforts in elite occupations. Should it be? In this paper
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Nick Brown @steamtraen.eu · 17/09/2026
Now published online at AMPPS: Our (me and Andrew Gelman) reply to the response by Aungle et al. to our comment on the Aungle & Langer article. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Relatedly, we really need a standard name for each stage of the comment–reply sequence!
journals.sagepub.com
This Is the Reason for External Replication: Response to Aungle et al. - Nicholas J. L. Brown, Andrew Gelman, 2026
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NBER @nber.org · 17/09/2026
When taxes are non-salient but inattention is rational, classical tax formulas may still survive, from George-Marios Angeletos and Matias Bayas-Erazo www.nber.org/papers/w35741
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Idk about you guys, but this feels good
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tweety fish oh wow like a chimera or something spoooky @sifu.tweety.fish · 17/09/2026
I had totally forgotten (or maybe missed at the time) that Gelman and Shalizi published a takedown of the whole idea of Bayesian inference as inductive rational inference. What a treat of a morning! arxiv.org/pdf/1006.3868
arxiv.org
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Peter Nencka 📊 @peternka.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
🚨 Announcing OpenCensus, a new project with @ezrakarger.bsky.social : We are transcribing the historical US censuses and releasing them as open data 2.6 million people so far in 1940, browse here: opencensus.us
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