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Paddy Carter

@paddycarter.bsky.social
3.6K followers 1.2K following 2K posts

Head of development economics at British International Investment, formerly CGD, ODI, lapsed academic economist and macroeconomics hobbyist. sites.google.com/site/paddycarter

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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 18h
This is interesting. I suppose one might still believe that multinationals are ripping off poor countries because they ought to be paying even more tax. Zucman is hardly a shill for big business. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
pick of this week's NBER WPs. The commoditization of labour: masaofukui.github.io/Commoditizat... Atlantic current collapse could be good for North Africa/Southern Europe bfi.uchicago.edu/working-pape... As of 2026, humanity is below replacement fertility. www.nber.org/papers/w35809
masaofukui.github.io
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I wonder if UK HMG sends people on the World Bank's courses about how to use administrative data to improve public service delivery courses.wbginstitute.org/course/gover...
courses.wbginstitute.org
Government Analytics: Fall 2026
The course explores how government analytics can leverage government-wide microdata to evaluate every team in every public organization, thus addressing information gaps on public sector performance a...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
if you have experience in loan syndication / distribution and fancy working on something a little different - emerging and frontier market assets - we are hiring for a senior position: isw.changeworknow.co.uk/bii/vms/e/ca...
isw.changeworknow.co.uk
Director and Head of Distribution
About BII British International Investment (BII) is the UK’s leading development finance institution, wholly owned by the UK Government. Our primary mission is to address global development challenges...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Ok this justifies the gazillions $ spent on AI I'm a convert
share.google
AI machine 'helps save 25 million Lego bricks from landfill'
The automated technology can sort up to 100,000 pieces a day at a Lancashire mill.
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Bartapest @bartapest.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
China’s new 134km Pinglu Canal creates a direct river-to-sea gateway to #ASEAN, cutting shipping routes by 560km and logistics costs up to 30% - a game-changer connecting Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing to booming regional #trade: www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/... #China #Vietnam
aljazeera.com
What’s the Pinglu Canal, China’s new gateway to Southeast Asia?
China's first modern river-to-sea canal could significantly cut down time and costs of trade to Southeast Asia.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Michael Kremer to be World Bank Group Chief Economist (effective October 1). www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
worldbank.org
Michael Kremer Appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist
WBG President Ajay Banga announced that Nobel laureate Michael Kremer has been appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, bringing one of the wo...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
In my job we must try to establish impact versus a counterfactual andd our number one rule is never use the word counterfactual in front of anyone who isn't an economist. The replies to this show why
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Why, when you've a lot going on, doesn't evolution program you to sleep like a log so you're at your best. How are sleepless nights a survival trait? Darwin, crock of shit.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
today I found out rice farming produces about the same GHG has global aviation (methane) and there is reasonably straight forward solution www.iwmi.org/news/explain...
iwmi.org
Explainer: Alternate Wetting and Drying irrigation technique
A water-saving approach for sustainable rice production.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
1. how did that happen? 2. what an opportunity
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Daron "Che" Acemoglu is at it again 👊
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
an argument here that Amazon's market power and its practice of auctioning the top slots in search results combined with a rule that vendors must not sell for less elsewhere is forcing up prices everywhere.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
does anyone know of good empirical work that shows population growth results in worse employment outcomes? (there is an argument that because people create demand for firms, more people creates more jobs and population growth itself does not explain why some countries have fewer good jobs)
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Josh Eyler @josheyler.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Major kudos to MIT, who just put out a report about AI on their campus that lucidly explains the threat posed by AI to cognition and the student experience, while at the same time prioritizes learning, students, and the value of education. 1/x aiandeducation.mit.edu/report/
aiandeducation.mit.edu
Report – AI and Education
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
has anyone managed to download the 2026 WDR (and might be able to send it to me if so)? www.worldbank.org/en/publicati...
worldbank.org
WDR 2026: The Promise of Artificial Intelligence
The World Development Report 2026 explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping development as a general‑purpose technology.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
can we try this over London? thealaskastory.com/california-c...
thealaskastory.com
California company says cloud-seeding drones produced 19 million gallons of precipitation over Kenai Peninsula - Alaska Story
A weather-technology company says seven cloud-seeding missions were flown over the Kenai Peninsula last weekend.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
something here that seems relevant to UK policy debates (i.e. either raise taxes or accept a state that does less). Evidence of the UK Laffer curve with some nuance: "larger increases in marginal relative to average tax rates are associated with a stronger contraction in tax revenues."
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I've been wondering why Beckton desalination plant hasn't been working and it sounds like we have laws saying membranes must be certified but not the labs to test them for certification. www.newcivilengineer.com/in-depth/wha...
newcivilengineer.com
What is standing in the way of desalination plant investment?
Water companies have included desalination in their long-term plans to avoid supply issues, but will they make that investment?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Maybe I could induce a private equity fund to finance a chain of kiosks just selling this stuff. God it's good.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
my econometrics has atrophied, but I remember that regressing Y/P on P is not sensible. I am not sure the authors are making that mistake here, but here is a result that population growth has tended to depress economic growth in Africa: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
African Economic Growth Revisited
This paper presents an updated analysis of the patterns of economic development in Africa over the last 60 years. The analysis stresses the heterogeneity of development trajectories among sub-Saharan...
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Is microfinance still a useful tool for eradicating poverty? In this week's episode of Economics Unpacked, @muhammadmeki.bsky.social and @simonrquinn.bsky.social explain why we need to think more carefully about the design of microfinance.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
our petition is more representative of people's views than your, er, survey of people's views www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
if you think African governments pay more to borrow than they ought, given the risks, there is now an ETF you can buy to trade that belief, which was seed funded by UK government: www.mobilistglobal.com/news-views-e...
mobilistglobal.com
MOBILIST provides seed funding to launch a new L&G African Government Bond ETF  - Mobilist
MOBILIST has supported the launch of a new Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) designed to broaden institutional investment in African sovereign debt markets. Developed with Legal & General Asset Management (L...
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Alex Coad @coad.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
📢📢"Positioning firms along the capabilities ladder" New paper in ICC [Open Access] with Nanditha Mathew and Emanuele Pugliese Paper: doi.org/10.1093/icc/... Youtube video [16m07]: youtu.be/Ls0uZb9fVN0 #EconSky
"Positioning firms along the capabilities ladder"

New paper in ICC [Open Access] with Nanditha Mathew and Emanuele Pugliese


Paper: https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtag021

Youtube video [16m07]: https://youtu.be/Ls0uZb9fVN0
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
This - a battery drive train that inserts between a lorry cab and its trailer and can electrify existing lorries - seems like a cool idea. Business model rests on building a network of swapping stations and having them used often enough, sadly, which is v hard to pull off
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Anyway , my favourite Odyssey bits were these bits
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
A longer version of this thread is here, complete with statutory references and an explanation of why the analogy is so close to how social care actually works. taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/07/27/s...
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Eric Verhoogen @ericverhoogen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Call for papers! 4th New Thinking in Industrial Policy Conference @columbiauniversity.bsky.social, Nov. 6, 2026. Conference page: cdep.sipa.columbia.edu/content/new-.... Submit here (deadline Sept. 14): docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F....
cdep.sipa.columbia.edu
New Thinking in Industrial Policy: Perspectives from Developed and Developing Countries | Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP)
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Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Misinformation is rife on social media and plays a key role in fuelling racist abuse, violence and even riots But the way we regulate it is - bluntly - rubbish In the second part of my look at social media regulation, I focus on our flawed approach to misinformation and how we might improve it:
chamindajayanetti.substack.com
How do you solve a problem like social media? Part II - misinformation
Misinformation and disinformation are among the worst online scourges, with huge real-world impacts. Why are our regulations so weak? And are there risks in making them stronger?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
What is best way for Burnham to cut energy bills, could GB Energy or some state-owned entity finance parts of transmission and storage infrastructure on terms that allow lower user fees?
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Emma Yeomans @yeomans.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Fires are burning larger, hotter and fiercer. The Peak District blaze has set into the peat, meaning it can smoulder underground and flare up again easily. Severity indexes are off the charts.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
I am sure Burnham falls short etc. but maybe everyone on the left could not create a miasma of criticism around him already? I would like Reform to lose. (I don't know how to balance things, "don't criticise your own side" is a bad rule, but "remember who the real bad guys are" is a good rule)
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
"We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual" www.nber.org/papers/w35475
nber.org
The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Has anyone seen any good work on balance of payments implications on AI? A lot of businesses around the world are going to be sending $s to the USA to use it, and if they jack prices it could be of macro significance.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Has someone modelled this forward and tried to predict date at which UK could flip into a housing surplus
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I have a piece in the NYT today arguing that the law should permit victims of ICE abuse to sue not just individual officers, but supervisors and policymakers like Stephen Miller and Gregory Bovino. A Democratic president and Congress could do this in 2029. And they could make it retroactive.
nytimes.com
Opinion | ICE Is Out of Control. Here’s What to Do About It.
Congress must push back against our inhumane immigration tactics.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The UK gov wants asylum seekers to repay £10k of their accommodation costs. We ran the numbers, gov could raise 3.5x more in tax & lower support costs by asking asylum seekers to work instead (with @helen-dempster.bsky.social & @ianmitchell1.bsky.social) cgdev.org/blog/asking-...
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Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The rollout of high speed internet in Uruguay worsended early childhood development. But not because the kids spent too much time in front of screens, because the parents did. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
High-speed internet and early childhood development: Causal evidence from a countrywide programme
The rapid expansion of high-speed internet has intensified concerns about how digital technologies affect early childhood. Using the staggered rollout of fibre optic to the home in Uruguay as a natura...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I don't know whether sitting deep like that is a tactical decision or a sort of collective panic and nobody is choosing to do it.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
interesting evidence about the Brazillian healthcare model where hospital management is outsourced to private sector, but care is free at point of use and the state retains ownership. It seems to work well (productivity up, quality measures look OK, mortality decreases a little)
academic.oup.com
Public Services Under Private Management*
Abstract. Theory predicts that outsourcing public services to the private sector can reduce costs and improve efficiency but can also induce cost-cutting a
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I'm doing the only rational thing and supporting France and Spain
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
big solar! 1GW round the clock (which takes 5.2GW of panels and 19GWh of battery) masdar.ae/en/news/news...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
A Chinese start-up says it has a working superior alternative to the lithography machines that make computer chips (which China does not possess) . www.scmp.com/tech/big-tec...
scmp.com
Chinese chip start-up launches 8-inch production line pilot for 2D chips
The company says the production line launch marks a critical step towards China’s drive for tech self-sufficiency.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Just why does that Belgian supporter think he can dress up as Obelix?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I don't think anyone on here really follows me for my work output, but anyway here are two blogs about what more smaller bilateral DFIs can do on mobilization, and whether the securitisation that the MDBs are now doing would work: www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi... www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
bii.co.uk
Bilateral DFIs and mobilisation - British International Investment
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
When people say it's all about money, what income links Messi staying in the competition to FIFA? Does it take a % of TV ratings? Shirt sales?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... Why on earth say you're going to remove this on Monday, when he could have put us into the semis
bbc.co.uk
Jude Bellingham station will keep name until Monday
The station was renamed to give England a boost before the match with Mexico - in which Jude Bellingham shone.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
here is a UK start-up I wasn't aware of, trying to use SMRs in shipping: from a rather depressing survey of shipping fuels in FT: www.ft.com/content/2eb3... also features someone planning to build ammonia fueling Namibia (they have also ordered 12 ammonia capable ships) cmb.tech/namibia/ammo...
corepower.energy
CORE POWER - What We Build
Ship-based nuclear energy systems that deliver reliable power where industry and nations need it most.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
A (virtually) free book from a great sci-fi writer
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