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A Jay Holmgren

@ajh.bsky.social
1.1K followers 285 following 389 posts

Assistant Professor at UCSF. Digital health, economics, informatics. Michigander in Chicago or San Francisco, depending on the day. PhD Harvard, 2x UMich alum. Go Blue.

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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
small email signature update
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The thesis of this piece is that it’s fine to turn the country’s largest and best public university system into a diploma mill where the degree doesn’t mean anything because it’s more equitable.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
just writing up my R01 resubmission hoping the administration doesn't know what "UCSF" stands for.
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Jamison Foser @jamisonfoser.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
our experiment with putting the dumbest fucking people in charge is unfolding with soul-crushing predictability
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
It's genuinely fascinating that the US president keeps announcing that he just flat out doesn't know what trade is, he legit doesn't appreciate the concept of exchange and instead views economic activity through the lens of a dragon attempting to maximise its gold hoard to sit upon.
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Robert Fruchtman @fruchtose.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
If the Castro District became a landmark district, that means that a big chunk of land close to transit and specifically zoned for buildings up to 160' tall would no longer be eligible for HC-SF. Mandelman is effectively proposing to downzone the Castro District, especially for affordable housing.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I guess fitting the Great Lakes mnemonic shifts from HOMES to SHAME.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
infuriating when "orthogonal" got broadly popular, that belongs to Persons Experiencing Doctoral Studies
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I find this weird guilt-by-familial association re: the Lakers deal very strange. Josh Kushner co-founded a company built on the ACA, publicly stated that he is a Democrat, marched in the Women's March and March for Our Lives (and donated $50k to the latter), and gave $250k to a Dem PAC for 2024.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
my hot take on the subject du jour is that the faculty experience at bates college and my faculty experience at UCSF, a large urban medical school, seem almost nothing alike.
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S. Trent Rosenbloom @trentrosenbloom.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Excited about our article covering the Future of EHRs (building on a review of the past) www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... @ajh.bsky.social
annualreviews.org
Building Toward a Future for Electronic Health Record Systems
Health information technology tools, including electronic health records, are ubiquitous in healthcare across the United States. Despite the promise and opportunity of these tools, their benefits have...
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment" by Brantly Callaway, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna.
aeaweb.org
Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper analyzes difference-in-differences designs with a continuous treatment. We show that treatment-on-the-treated-type parameters are identified under a parallel trends assumption analogous to the binary treatment case. However, comparing these parameters across treatments is challenging because parallel trends does not rule out selection bias. We discuss alternative, typically stronger, assumptions that eliminate selection bias. We further show that popular two-way fixed effects estimands admit multiple interpretations, depending on the underlying causal building block, all having important limitations as meaningful summaries of treatment effects. Finally, we introduce alternative estimation procedures that avoid these drawbacks and demonstrate them in an empirical application.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Bit of an experimental addition here: I created a companion web app to this paper that lets you interact with the distributions here across different physician cFTEs in each specialty bucket. www.ajholmgren.com/pmar-calcula...
ajholmgren.com
PMAR Calculator — A Jay Holmgren, PhD
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
My favorite part of walking to our local bagel shop is stopping to say hi to this outdoor turtle.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Easy to get down on politics today but important to focus on good news: new Carly Rae Jepsen single goes incredibly hard.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
New paper out today in Health Affairs: there has been a lot of attention on the increase in patient-initiated messages since 2020, but how are those messages distributed across physicians and patients? We use national + local EHR data to find out! www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/...
healthaffairs.org
The Uneven Distribution Of Patient Portal Messages Across Patients And Physicians | Health Affairs Journal
Responding to patient-initiated portal messages is a growing source of work for physicians, yet little is known about how these messages are distributed across patients and physicians. Understanding t...
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Joe Fish @sadbusdriver.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
i feel the loss of econ twitter with stuff like the quality of consumer goods discourse the literature on reputation incenvtives is very rich; it covers a lot of interesting stuff (why do bad mechanics not get competed, why do firms harvest reputation). alas, nobody here does those kinds of threads
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Just described an unexpected performance meltdown in a video game as “Richie Tenenbaum-esque” to which she just stared at me because I somehow married a woman who doesn’t like Wes Anderson
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I need more advanced stats on reality tv. Don’t tell me the winner of the Love Island heart rate challenge, please plot the full dyadic data.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This is a really gross thing to do given she lost to Daniel Biss, who just happens to be Jewish, and not the AIPAC-backed candidate Laura Fine.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I lived in SF for 5 years and basically had no contact with the tech industry outside of the occasional professional interaction and overheard conversations. Cities are big! You can find a lot of sub-cultures!
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
One reason I'm skeptical of these big claims is that, if true, we basically subject the western half of many time zones to something much worse. The difference between sunrise times in eastern Maine and west Michigan is 1.5 hours!
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
To overshare a bit, I think male body dysmorphia is broadly under-recognized within (especially heterosexual) men. It has definitely been a struggle for me for most of my life.
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Julian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Absolutely everybody who knows anything about labor demographics saw this coming miles away. The last 18 months have been a steady stream of “nobody could have predicted” things every minimally knowledgable person loudly predicted.
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Adrianna McIntyre @adrianna.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
New white paper from myself + colleagues: Implementation of Medicaid Work Requirements: Key Design Considerations and Strategies to Minimize Avoidable Coverage Loss hsph.me/Medicaid-Wor... We synthesize evidence in the peer-reviewed and gray literature to identify key lessons + recommendations
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Okay but also please take the same approach when it comes time to visit a hospital. Rub some raw milk on it, buddy!
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Wife came down to roast me for my lifting playlist but real ones know
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Kathryn A Phillips PhD @kathrynp-phd.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
What should health policy researchers study next? @Health_Affairs Scholar Editorial Team published new article, building on widely disseminated 2023 editorial. Access, delivery, corporatization, pharmaceuticals, international health, AI, precision nutrition,climate. academic.oup.com/healthaffair...
academic.oup.com
Ten high-priority areas for health policy research in 2026-2027
Abstract. Health policy is undergoing a period of rapid transformation, driven by major health reforms, changing market structures, pharmaceutical policy d
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Stephen Turner @stephenturner.us · 09/07/2026
Fourth leg of the tenure stool after research, teaching, and service: how often you 2FA each week.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I do not remember going to M. Night Shyamalan's Beach That Makes You Old, but that is the only explanation I can muster.
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Less a chess move than the only rational response to all the very obvious signs of his poor judgment and low moral character. It's the behavior of Sanders, Warren, Gallego, the Pod Save Boys et al that has been truly remarkable (derogatory).
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Worrying that this was such an easy layup to identify this kind of guy, and yet Morris Katz and the Fight Agency, the Pod Save guys, Bernie Sanders, etc. all stuck by this dude despite the massive red flags despite presumably having better information.
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Manasvini Singh @vinisingh.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
New WP, just in time for #ASHEcon26! What started off as a project to learn LLM use for text analysis turned accidentally into a paper about stigma. [1/n]
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
I made a “basic skincare for men” guide a few years ago for some friends I should absolutely put it online somewhere.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
since this oaf is in the news again, i want to remind leftist journalists they can go to the gym to work out their masculinity issues rather than falling in love with every gruff white dude who dresses like a slob lol.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Consequence of 5 years in San Francisco: I have no summer wardrobe at all. 🥵
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Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈 @maxdubler.com · 13/05/2026
Follow these six simple steps to turn Chicago into San Francisco:
There are proven tools to solve the housing crisis:

    Lift the ban on rent control so cities can stabilize rents.
    Invest directly in affordable housing at the scale the crisis demands.
    Support cooperative and social housing models that remove profit from housing.
    Support more just municipal tax assessments based on the material conditions of each parcel, rather than nearby market speculation.
    Strengthen local authority to require affordability and prevent displacement.
    Impose restrictions on luxury development in neighborhoods facing displacement. 

These policies work. Deregulation alone never has.
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William Adler @williamadler78.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Maine Democrats are gonna nominate a guy who hangs with white supremacists and had a Nazi tattoo for decades. What the hell are we doing here www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/u...
nytimes.com
Janet Mills, Governor of Maine, Suspends Senate Campaign
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
having watched a parent die of oropharyngeal cancer, my suggestion is: probably not.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
I also think the traits of a good politician (outside of "agrees with me on policy") are totally orthogonal to these indicators of upbringing and class - I have a working-class background and a policy PhD, but I would be a bad elected official because I'm overly-emotional and, honestly, kind of mean
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
One of my beefs with Platner is the blue collar, working class thing is totally stolen valor AND he is definitely using it as a get out of jail free card. Neither of my parents went to college, my dad dropped out of 10th grade. I never thought it'd be fun to be a mercenary to kill people!
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Currently experiencing moving purgatory: enough stuff is packed to make living in my home frustrating, but not enough is packed to feel ready to actually move on Friday.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
surely, given how the media covered inflation during times of strong real wage growth from 2021 - 2024, this will engender wall-to-wall, non-stop criticism of the trump administration.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
GO BLUE BABYYYYYYYY
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Correct.
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
I've gotten really bad at posting my papers, but new study out today in JAMA co-led with Lisa Rotenstein: our multi-site evaluation of AI scribes on clinician EHR time. Anyway here's the graph you want to see jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Difference in differences event study graph showing the effect of AI scribe adoption on various EHR use outcomes
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A Jay Holmgren @ajh.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The ancient texts are being lost. Kids must defeat me at Super Smash Bros: Melee otherwise they have to open the HTML editor to put me in their myspace top 8. These are FUNDAMENTAL SKILLS.
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Adrianna McIntyre @adrianna.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Excited to see this piece with @michaelannica.bsky.social and @rachelsachs.bsky.social out We looked at the Rural Health Transformation Program: Its funding formula had a clear small-state bias; we ask whether its scoring methodology also perhaps favored red states academic.oup.com/healthaffair...
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