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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

George Pearkes @peark.es · 07/10/2026

This is good and overlays nicely with my qualitative view that 1) long term rates now price truly aggressive risk premiums/growth assumptions and can’t go much further 2) the length and scale of this move makes a top in yields increasingly likely. Nobody left to sell.

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

One of the talking points of the late 1990s tech bubble was that tech investment had such a high rate of return that rate hikes were irrelevant.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The dollar is gaining, but still hasn’t recovered from ‘Liberation Day’:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Why do spreads keep rising? Because whenever investors see long-dated French paper, they just rip-it, rip-it.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Bang on: "Dollar strength is never a time when foreign central banks are buying Treasuries. If anything, they sell Treasuries to defend their own currencies. None of this is about intrinsic demand for US government debt. In fact, it’s anything but."

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

No longer a full rate hike priced in for the US by year end. Expect similar dynamics in other major economies in the months ahead.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Waller bragging about FRED this morning, and justifiably so: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In France, both the government and the corporate sector (in many senses entwined with the state) have added to their debt burdens:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Dom, as usual, is highly persuasive here. The impact of the Iran shock's second wave seems to have been dulled by evidence of economic resilience and by a change in the expected policy response:

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Though, to be clear, I think that's only half of the explanation. It's also the resilience of global demand that is affording central banks the ability to do so. If there was more of a growth vs inflation dilemma, I'm sure all of this would look different.

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Brian Platt @brianplatt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I....don't know what prompted this from the president today, but StatCan reported JUST this morning that in the past year, Canada experienced its slowest population growth since 1916. The country's population is essentially stalled right now.

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Brendan Greeley @bhgreeley.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Hammurabi, the only guy in history who could credibly say "I am the code"

A stele containing the text of the Code of Hammurabi in the Louvre

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Suspect ‘Trust’ by @frankfukuyama.bsky.social —which drew stark contrasts with de Tocqueville's America—will prove the more economically meaningful book in his ouvre. (ht @gideonrachman.bsky.social )

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

German heavy industries—under threat from higher energy prices, inflexible regulatory frameworks, and intensifying Chinese competition—are stuck in a downturn (and one suspects fiscal stimulus won't be enough to turn the tide):

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Central banks are back in tightening mode as they move away from a long-standing tendency to "look through" supply shocks in the face of large, persistent, and recurring disruptions (as highlighted in yesterday's speech from @goolsbee.bsky.social here: www.chicagofed.org/publications...)

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

subscribe FREE to me on Substack. Today: The U.S. isn't short of diesel. The world is. So would banning U.S. diesel exports actually lower prices? It might sound like an easy fix. But once you look at refinery economics and how fuel actually moves, the answer gets complicated. Click below.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Trump attempting to shift US imports from Canada to a Russian client state. If there was any doubt before, the argument that the administration is acting in the interests of national security now lies in smoking ruins.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Through the magic* of inflation, aggregate advanced-economy debt-to-GDP levels are down from pre-pandemic levels: */s (1/3)

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Terms of trade in Europe and Asia are suffering the most under the current commodity-price regime:

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

in canada, its very palpable that we've exited a period of kind of easy living where culture war issues could dominate. Now we are in a phase where the culture war bits are dead, we can float ideas actually imagine a future. And man its so nice

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Invictus @tbpinvictus.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

If your triumphal arch is a literal military outpost, can you seriously claim you’ve triumphed?

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Canadian exports to the EU cannot compensate for lost access to US markets. But a lack of fiscal restraint in Washington, coupled with the war in the Middle East, means it scarcely matters. Canadian exports are still growing as the Trump administration's economic policies work at cross-purposes.

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

World leaders negotiating with Trump:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

JPY up a bit on rate-check rumours hitting the wires—but still not close to unwinding the last two sessions:

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

George Pearkes @peark.es · 18/09/2026

New cycle highs for 2y yields, 2s10s slightly steeper on the day, 10y reals almost back to their pre-FOMC high close.

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Re-upping in honor of WB today:

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

matthew @pahuski.com · 17/09/2026

they don’t teach you this in school but the Great Depression actually happened because they briefly made Robert Wadlow the fed chair

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

"Heightonomics rests on a single empirical observation: the conditional mean of the 10-year Treasury yield is well-described by one explanatory variable — the height of the sitting Chair" heightonomics.com

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

JPMorgan’s commodities team: “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

What scene makes you emotional no matter how many times you've seen it?

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Somewhat-hawkish FX reaction to this afternoon's Fed decision:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

New drinking game: drink whenever you hear Warsh say the words "I" or "me".

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The Fed's preferred inflation measure — the core personal consumption expenditures index — has risen on a substantially faster trajectory in the 2020s:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

If currency markets really were responsive to long-run fundamentals, the Canadian dollar would be trading higher on this:

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Interesting to note that with economies facing a somewhat-synchronous energy-price shock, rate expectations have moved up in relative lockstep across the advanced economies, leaving carry rankings almost unchanged (1/2)

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Maybe the real treasure was the negative-yielding debt we enjoyed along the way

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Reposted by Karl Schamotta

alex williams @atwilliams.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

so much of trump policy is about kneecapping the growth equation of the 2030s so that we have to continue reorganizing the economy and society around the rich and the aging

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