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Rory Johnston

@roryjohnston.bsky.social
39K followers 318 following 2.8K posts

oil market researcher founder of CommodityContext.com former bank economist markets, code, barbecue

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 24m
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again Summary below, full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 ⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀 Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...
commoditycontext.com
Diesel Danger Zone
Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as governments scramble
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 ⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀 Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...
commoditycontext.com
Diesel Danger Zone
Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as governments scramble
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Spoke with the @newrepublic.com’s @gracesegers.bsky.social about the diesel crisis and how consumers can’t get away from the fuel even if they wanted
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back to fresh all-time highs. Now at ~$228/bbl in New York Harbor, outstripping the prior all-time set two weeks ago.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
“Hormuz oil flows can’t possible be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100!” Brother, if you had told an oil analyst in January that Hormuz flows were still down 7 MMbpd after >200 days of war—with the East-West pipeline hobbled—and oil was ONLY $100 they’d have looked at you like
static.klipy.com
Shia La Beouf: Are You On Drugs? (Transformers)
ALT: Shia La Beouf: Are You On Drugs? (Transformers)
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉📈📉 Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity. Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Hi, Reuters, quick note: WE DO NOT MEASURE OIL FLOW IN BARRELS PER WEEK
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The last time 30-year yields were this high:
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Widening gap between US (yellow) and Chinese (green) retail diesel prices year to date. NYMEX diesel (dark blue) and Singapore gasoil (light blue) futures prices included for reference.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl. Summary below, full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hey, Iran, buddy, I know we almost single-handedly neutered your Hormuz oil weapon with our big ol' Beijing Swing in your moment of greatest existential need (so awkward, right, because we're such good friends?!) but could you do us a solid and get your Houthi pals to cut it out?
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
US Secretary of Energy // US Secretary of Transportation
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Imagine US policy in the Middle East plunging the world into energy crisis? IMAGINE?!
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits. The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
ALL-TIME HIGH DIESEL CRACK The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record. The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Dated Brent (the physical spot price) closed above $130/bbl yesterday. Higher than all but a few days in 2008/2022/April 2026.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...
commoditycontext.com
The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products
Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
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repetitiveuser.bsky.social @repetitiveuser.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This is THE most important question and the answer to it is going to dictate what the outcome ends up looking like worldwide. @roryjohnston.bsky.social really knows his shit
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...
commoditycontext.com
The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products
Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Lots of questions and confused numbers out there, so to clarify: Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a theoretical max capacity of 7 MMbpd. The highest sustained Saudi West Coast export pace we've seen during the conflict is ~5.5 MMbpd, which is 3.5 MMbpd higher than the ~2 MMbpd prewar norm.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Crude prices pop, pop back toward Thursday highs to kick off the week.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The thing about commodities markets experiencing acute supply deficits is that they’ll continue getting tighter until said deficit flips to a real surplus. A small deficit, while comforting, doesn’t actually solve the problem, it just slows the blaze. Hormuz still gotta *open*
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with Rob Wilson, President of East Daley Analytics, for a deep dive into the rapidly changing North American oil infrastructure landscape. Listen on your favourite platform, or watch: youtu.be/8uz0nXkkYsA?...
youtu.be
Keystone XL Is Back—But North America’s Oil Map Has Changed
YouTube video by CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Dated Brent crude closed yesterday above $120/bbl. Highest level since April.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Time to bring back out the full Brent crude physical-through-financial curve chart. This is where we closed yesterday. Dated Brent (physical spot, near-term delivery) > $120 per barrel.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
this is the price for which diesel is currently searching
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
At more than $216 per barrel, US diesel futures are now at their highest level in history. We just busted through the prior record set at the height of the 2022 crisis.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
September OPEC+ Data Deck out now. 📉📉 Saudi production falls to lowest level since 1990 📉 Iranian production collapses to lowest level since 2020 📈 Iraqi production jumping as discounting/Hormuz shuttle trade efforts bear fruit. Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/opec-data-...
commoditycontext.com
OPEC+ Data Deck (September 2026)
Saudi crude production collapsed by 1.9 MMbpd to the lowest monthly average pace since 1990, while Iraq continues to drive production higher through aggressive discounting and shuttle trade activity.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Crude flying this morning—Brent now above $104/bbl. Wheels coming off.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The most interesting piece of data in this latest monthly OPEC report is a direct communication from Saudi Arabia stuffed in a footnote—Saudi crude **production** cratered through August to the lowest level since 1990.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
there's always money in the banana refinery
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The Rundown @therundowntvo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
For decades, routing Canadian energy through the U.S. didn't seem like a problem. Today, that looks different. @roryjohnston.bsky.social tells @jeyantvo.bsky.social why some see a proposed Alberta-to-Ontario pipeline as a matter of Canadian energy sovereignty. | Producer: Mike Attenborough
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
US diesel now fetching more than $200 per barrel. Highest print of the Hormuz crisis thus far, only two days closed at the height of the April 2022 crisis closed higher.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Brent crude just popped above the July high close, now at ~$100.70/bbl. July intraday high was $102. After that we're back to May comparisons.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Oil prices pop, diesel crack spreads hit all-time highs, crude backwardation sharply steepened, and the US and Iran exchanged intensified strikes amidst still-rising Hormuz oil flows. Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
FT: "Chevron plans to invest $7B to more than double its oil production in Venezuela over the next 5 years [from ~300 to 600 kbpd] in the first big commitment from a US major [... and] had secured the rights to develop two new oilfields .. within the oil-rich Orinoco belt" www.ft.com/content/a767...
ft.com
Chevron pledges $7bn to double its Venezuela oil production
US major commits to expand its joint ventures as White House pushes for huge increase in production in the country
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
why actually do it when you can just fantasize with slop?
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The WSJ Editorial Board: “The U.S. government is essentially getting in bed with a foreign dictator and her favored capitalist”
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Carnival money-trap singing my song
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
The 65 billion barrel number is a red herring and will have little relevance to any actual deals—the real relevant details of which are still almost entirely unknown. It’s just a classic big number that Trump was sure to jump all over and will repeat ad nauseam going forward.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Trump claims BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! “secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer” (there’s a word for that?) “MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves” (not how national oil reserves work)
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude markets ease back as ECONOMIC D-DAY disappoints and Hormuz transits continue to grind higher, while road fuel scarcity worsens and Washington goes imperial in Venezuela’s oil patch. Summary below, full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I was born, grew up, went to school, work, and am now raising a family on the shores of Lake Ontario. And that’s what it will forever be named. Back to the oil market.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
"Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery and second-largest gasoline producer NORSI suspended crude oil ​processing on Wednesday after a Ukrainian ‌drone attack" "All of Lukoil’s major Russian refineries are now offline" www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Russia's NORSI refinery halts oil processing after drone attack, sources say
Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery and second-largest gasoline producer NORSI suspended crude oil ​processing on Wednesday after a Ukrainian ‌drone attack, three industry sources said.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
9 VLCCs entered the Persian Gulf via Hormuz on Friday August 21st. Largest daily ballast capacity inflow I've seen (>20 MMbbl all in) since the end of the post-MOU surge.
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