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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 15h

Huh. No candidate ads in this NLDS inning break but a positive for....data centers! (At least I think that's what it was; it was dressed up as supporting tough regulations, but pretty sure it wasn't). Skeptical that a few ads are gonna turn that one around.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 18h

Outside of everything else... Trump first announced this on September 9, when @fiftyplusone.news had his approval/disapproval at 35.7/60.2% Now? 34.5/62.6 - his worst ever. Who knows, but seem to me it's as likely that sounding desperate hurts him as it is that offering free money helps him.

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Elizabeth Nelson @paranoiacs.bsky.social · 21h

'It positively marinates in social, romantic and political outrage, overlapping into a mosaic of grievance that would take decades to untangle." Over at Pitchfork, I reviewed the rad new 49th anniversary addition of Elvis Costello's debut 'My Aim Is True.' pitchfork.com/reviews/albu...

pitchfork.com

Elvis Costello: My Aim Is True (49th Anniversary Edition)

Read Elizabeth Nelson’s review of the album.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 21h

You should hear me complaining about postseason games where they don't bother show you a replay so you can tell whether the outfielder got a good jump. Or, in the previous game, where there's no decent close-up camera shot of a catch at the wall. I swear Gowdy & Kubek always had those shots.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 21h

With hardly anyone watching the horse racing channel...not a problem for those of us going there.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

If you don't at least consider setting off a nuke to stop the volcano, are you even trying?

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Oh, that's definitely how this ends if Dems get a majority, Alito announces reirement, and they somehow don't manage to confirm anyone.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Trump could do almost anything. One of his pardoned felons? Someone 85 years old? A non-lawyer? Sure.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I'm sure many GOP Senators would be happy to rush through a nomination made at 9AM Jan 3, but I don't think enough would. And yes, I do think a failed first nominee is always a possibility.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I wrote about this recently...there's plenty of time to rush through a nomination in the lame duck, but the question is: Suppose a nominee implodes! What's the latest a replacement could be sent up and confirmed? As I said in the item...

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Nataro was great, on Discovery and Academy. No shortage of great actors/characters....but I think the show didn't do well enough by them. (I have no idea what happened with Tilly, but I'm almost as upset about it as I am about Jadzia Dax.)

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I liked the cast, and I liked the characters, but it badly needed stand-alone episodes with lower stakes. And some of the choices (such as the first-season Klingons) were...let's go with...odd. I agree having Cronenberg (and Abrams) show up was fun.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

So...unless something changes Trump today hits a new approval low and disapproval high per @fiftyplusone.news 34.5%/62.5%. Slightly better numbers, but also new worsts, over at Nate Silver's place.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Nice. Anyone who made it through every episode of Discovery deserves at least a publication out of it! (I didn't even get a blog post. Yet.)

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The 2007 reunion is included in the new box set.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is what I've been talking about: What the Dems strategize about impeachment isn't going to matter because he's going to force it.

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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

human language was a mistake

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

49 years?!? Yikes. I remember borrowing My Aim is True from a much cooler friend...of course no radio station in Phoenix was playing stuff like that. Dan Fogelberg, yes. Styx. But not the Ramones or The Clash or Elvis - that wasn't rock'n'roll.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Biden did a tiny bit of this maybe, but he should have been doing it all the time throughout 2021 - with McConnell, W., big celebrities, first shots, boosters...over and over again.

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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Excellent quote. This article also pairs well with Backlash Presidents, which takes on the historical and institutional dimensions of this problem but shares the same basic conviction.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

[Well, here goes...] Now that your picture's in the paper being rhythmically admired...

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

There are a *lot* of top priorities for Dems in the next Congress but forcing the administration to follow the law on spending is probably the top of the top priorities.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Ooh does he also claim that he, himself, doesn't see skin color?

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

(Yes, I'm an old guy who is probably missing lots of better ways to do things. I know. But still.)

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

My primary election vote in '28 to the candidate who will force every company with a sign-in password to include an option to make what you type visible.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

For what it's worth, I'm on Team He Was Always a Moron, and to the extent it's worse now it's because events have further increased his confidence that he he's always right and everyone else is always wrong. But what do I know?

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

"...you would have a lot of elite countries that were no longer elite, that lose their share, and we would not lose, whether it's 50 or 100. You have certain countries that make $50 billion every [unintelligible]." You think?

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

OK reading the Time transcript and about a third of the way down there's an [unintelligible] and I know that's not what it means but really it is some kind of hi-larious.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Sorry unless he gets to the bottom of that Teapot Dome thing Trump is still a squish.

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Lily Mason @lilymasonphd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

My new JOD piece arguing against the “cure polarization” approach to saving democracy.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Depends on the context. Plurality direct primaries can be goofy, and could use some majority (or at least more-than-plurality) mechanism. Run-offs, ranked-choice, sequential primaries (as used in presidential noms), and informal party influence are all plausible options.

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Djinn & Tonic @djinnandtonic.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It's unclear to me what problem the breaking of the two-party system is supposed to solve

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David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

You see in February he got rid of the threat that he got rid of last year, and now he’s just getting rid of the threat.

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Arica Schuett @aricaschuett.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

🚨 Today is the date of my first solo publication. 🚨 You'd expect seasoned organizers to be the quickest to turn broad public support into electoral engagement. But in 2020, it was newer organizers who pushed their supporters toward electoral politics.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yes although I do believe that the valley is perhaps the toughest area in the nation to poll so...we'll see? Certainly plausible.

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

@degolierthomas.bsky.social did you guys see this Texas polling? bsky.app/profile/greg...

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Oh also I guess I should prepare for the possibility that next year we'll all be forced trans and also governed by strict Muslim law.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

We'll see...but in addition to how (extremely!) important this kind of thing is locally, it sure seems like there are going to be a lot of obstacles in a lot of states to another round of late-decade GOP gerrymandering.

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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Huge announcement from the campaign finance world, nerds. For the first time, you can find federal and state campaign finance data in one place. @opensecrets.org is the only place anyone can explore how money influences elections up and down the ballot. 😍🤓🗳️🇺🇸 www.opensecrets.org/state-profil...

opensecrets.org

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William Adler @williamadler78.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

To some extent the entire unitary executive project is downstream of Nixon.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Trust me you *really* don't want an intra-discipline discusion of whether what y'all are doing is really "science."

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Beat having the media calling them political scientists, in my view. #sorrynotsorry

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Francis Wilkinson @franciswilkinson.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tracing one corrupt, mendacious and lazy Senator’s public fiasco to its roots in his corrupt, mendacious and lazy party and the cornerstone of Murdoch’s corrupt, mendacious and lazy propaganda network. Excellent @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-schmit...

goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com

The Schmitt Fiasco

And why it’s par for the GOP course.

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Norm Ornstein @normornstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social has one of the best Substack going when it comes to insights by political scientists on our country. This one is especially good. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-schmit...

goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com

The Schmitt Fiasco

And why it’s par for the GOP course.

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