Sign in

Jesper Asring Hansen

@jesperasring.bsky.social
596 followers 410 following 2 posts

Associate professor @aau.dk. Public administration and policing. sites.google.com/view/jesperasring

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇
Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.
23015
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
“I was asked not to mention the Times at all. I’m choosing not to honor that norm, b/c silence abt how accountability journalism gets suppressed is itself a form of suppression.” Read the back story of how @nytimes.com and @thebulwark.com killed @adambonica.bsky.social’s piece. What a mf badass.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
11197451
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Natan Skigin @natanski.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
🚨 Thrilled to share our new article in AJPS (w/ Yanilda González)! How do competing narratives shape support for police violence? Using a nationwide survey experiment in Brazil, we show that victims’ counternarratives boost empathy and reduce support for police killings—even among right-wing voters
1162
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
Bar chart titled "Voter fraud among Republican politicians vastly exceeds the public's. That rate is still just 1 in 850." The chart shows that 0.118% of Republican politicians (17 out of 14,442 DIME candidates from 2016–2026) have been credibly implicated in voter fraud. This rate is represented by a tall red bar that dwarfs the microscopic rates for the general electorate, making the politicians' rate 50x to 38,000x higher than the documented rates for everyone else.
10702340
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 07/07/2026
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
4934521433
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
The Department of Political Science at Aarhus University is hiring both Assistant Professors and Associate Professors. Assistant Professor: international.au.dk/about/profil... Associate Professor: international.au.dk/about/profil... Please share these opportunities with your networks!
international.au.dk
Assistant Professor in Political Science - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
1120124
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "Rationing by Race" by Manasvini Singh and Atheendar Venkataramani.
aeaweb.org
Rationing by Race
(Forthcoming Article) - We document how deepening resource scarcity results in rationing on the basis of race in a highstakes setting: health care. Using detailed, time-stamped data on 107,000 inpatient admissions to a large health system, we find that in-hospital mortality increases for Black, but not White, patients as hospitals reach capacity. These findings are not explained by differential patient selection. We identify rationing by wait times as a mechanism, documenting that sicker Black patients wait longer for care than healthier White patients at almost all capacity levels. Text analysis of unstructured clinical notes reveals rationing of provider effort as another mechanism.
0227
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
For years I've tracked billionaire excess. Each year I show students a chart that blows their minds. This year I had to redraw it for a trillionaire: Elon Musk, $1.32T. Depressing that we're here. Silver lining: couldn't have happened to a less deserving person, proof that wealth ≠ merit.
stanford.edu
Elon Musk's $1.32 Trillion, to Scale
The first trillionaire's fortune, one pixel per $1,000 — scroll past every dollar, and see what a fraction of it could do instead.
17603249
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
It seems a good day to remind people that in the UK 3 times as many people work in Indian restaurants or for McDonalds as in the whole coal and steel industry. 5 times as many are academic staff at universities. If Labour does not understand its electorate, there is no way to appeal to it.
182127617
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
⚽📚 The Ultimate World Cup Research Thread I've set up a little automated thread: every day of the 2026 World Cup (11 Jun–19 Jul) it shares one study on what football does to society: politics, economics, migration, health, crime & more. One paper a day. Kickoff below 👇
4012332
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
514052
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 01/06/2026
Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams? A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brüderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. —> doi.org/10.31222/osf...
1310107
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Dominik Schraff @dschraff.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
New pub with Camilla Bjarnøe, Kristina Jessen Hansen & Mads Thau What makes political group appeals work? Politicians routinely flatter voter groups but we know little whether it works. We tested class-based flattery appeals using survey experiments in 🇩🇰 Denmark and 🇺🇸 the US.
1156
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Excellent news! Nature is expanding Registered Reports to all the fields in which they publish! A great result by all those proposing this strong solution to publication bias and selective reporting (and getting expert feedback before data collection)! www.nature.com/articles/d41...
114273
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Here are remarks I gave at the Keeping the Republic Conference at Notre Dame. If you’ve followed me over the past decade or so, my skepticism toward the field’s fixation on polarization likely won’t come as much of a surprise. But here they are, for what they’re worth. substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
Beyond Polarization
My Remarks at Notre Dame's "Keeping the Republic" Conference
114938
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/05/2026
The DNC "autopsy" omits the biggest reason Democrats lost in 2024: inflation and anti-incumbent sentiment. In doing so, it fails to incentivize party actors to think about how they will overcome the same negative forces in 2030 and 2032 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-dnc-au...
gelliottmorris.com
The DNC "autopsy" omits the biggest reason Democrats lost in 2024
In doing so, it fails to prepare the party for 2028 — and 2032
2940086
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New piece in Science: Sudden elimination of USAID grants triggered waves of violence in affected regions in Africa, undermining civic governance and fueling civic unrest. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence
Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national human...
5305189
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
New paper out in Nature Human Behaviour. "Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources" with @seramirezruiz.bsky.social DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s415... Ungated: rdcu.be/fh0Ss
doi.org
Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources - Nature Human Behaviour
This analysis of 1.2 million policy documents from 185 countries identifies global inequalities in whose knowledge is cited in policymaking. Governments in the Global South rely more on foreign source...
38730
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Ida Bae Wells @nhannahjones.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
The Voting Rights Act is essentially dead and it’s quite possible that we will, like when a similar SCOTUS gutted civil rights at the fall of Reconstruction, see a disappearance of much of the Black congressional representation, especially in the most heavily Black states, which are in the South.
340122955045
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
📄 New paper with a fantastic MA student @jmschulte.bsky.social: When social democrats move right on migration, do voters actually follow? We study Olaf Scholz's radical shift on migration in Germany (October 2023).
412241
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
🚨 New WP 📄 (w/ @muzhou-zhang.bsky.social and @winniexia.bsky.social ) We ask which countries people in 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪🇩🇰🇮🇹🇷🇴 think their governments should learn from and show: 1) Citizens have clear favorites (Nordics top) 2) Performance info shifts what they prefer and how they explain it Comments welcome!
1306
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
𝙅𝙖𝙘🍩𝙗 𝙉𝙮𝙧𝙪𝙥 @jacobnyrup.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
This is completely insane and he should be impeached. It is also extremely confusing. He writes "God Bless the Great People of Iran!" in the same post as he threatens them with annihilation (although I guess it makes sense in a sick way) and brags about having ushered in regime change (he has not).
0154
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...
110938
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Delighted our paper (with an amazing group of co-authors) is forthcoming in the APSR Takeaway for Labour and other centre-left parties: fixing public services is key to reducing support for the populist right 👇
414053
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Dean Yang @deanyang.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New in the American Economic Review: migration doesn't hollow out the home economy — it builds it up. More than 75% of the long-run income gains from migration are domestic. The home economy itself grows. Here's what we found: 🧵
111443
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) @ajpseditor.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
You and whose economy? Group-based retrospection in economic voting by Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard is now available in Early View. @chdausgaard.bsky.social ajps.org/2026/03/20/y...
043
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Asmus Leth Olsen @asmusletholsen.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
We got a paper in @pspolisci.bsky.social l on public administration beyond public administration journals A substantial share of quantitatively oriented PA research is being produced in top economics journals! www.cambridge.org/core/journal... @karlemilbendtsen.bsky.social Five stylized facts:
cambridge.org
Public Administration Beyond Public Administration Journals | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
Public Administration Beyond Public Administration Journals
3227
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Chris Cook @chriscook.news · 23/03/2026
Our latest on the Orban System: how a dozen or so businessmen closely tied to the Hungarian premier hit gold from state contracts when he took over www.ft.com/content/70c2...
11254109
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Do conjoint/factorial/vignette experiments reflect choices in the real world? Are hypothetical scenarios in the artificial survey context externally valid? Do hypothetical bias, intention-behavior gap and social desirability biases undermine validity? Two cautionary studies on this question:
47926
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
‼️The FT has launched a four-part series on Orbán and the Orbán government. The first part focused on Russian interference in support of Fidesz; this second part deals with the “family’s” enrichment. You wouldn’t believe it, but the FT mapped out their real estate empire from the air ✈️
ft.com
The riches of Viktor Orbán’s home village
Hungary’s longtime leader is trailing in the polls ahead of April’s election, as the opposition alleges widespread corruption
4351145
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
It’s basically criminology 101 that arrest quotas destroy civil liberties
West Coast
ICE agents reveal daily arrest quotas and surveillance app in rare court testimony
Under oath, officers said they were told to make eight arrests a day and given special tech to help choose 'targets'
Sign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inbox
Sam Levin in Portland, Oregon
Fri 13 Mar 2026 09.00 EDT
4382130
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
The only thing popularists fear more than an unpopular idea from the left is a popular one that might actually threaten billionaires.
116629
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Skye @simplyskye.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
AOC: “That’s one reason he must be removed from office - if the Epstein files have such a hold on Trump & this admin that they are willing to plunge us & risk world war in order to save themselves politically - that is the definition of someone who cant make objective decisions for the American ppl”
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks with reporters. (AP / Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
19094302571
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Adam Scharpf @ascharpf.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Russia, Venezuela, Iran, China, the Sahel region, the United States ... Want to know why state agents carry out brutal repression — or participate in illegal coups? Our new book "Making a Career in Dictatorship" provides answers — it just got published by @academic.oup.com: tinyurl.com/ystwm3tf
1417183
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
🔥Revised paper🔥 More regressions. More tests of mechanisms. Same story. Tldr: Brexit caused much regulatory uncertainty at a moment when UK state capacity was v weak, and hard-to-regulate companies (aka oil firms) did not think twice and generated a mess in the high seas. Now with full receipts ⬇️
papers.ssrn.com
33915
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
I am extremely honored, and equally perplexed, that my book has received the Stein Rokkan Prize. Thank you so much to everyone who helped out with this project along the way. So much of the book is the result of feedback by kind people who took the time to listen and read. Thank you.
2331326
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 10/09/2025
Wild how economists and political scientists worry so much about unbiased tests **in their papers** and yet basically ignore how their journals filter on significance. Given our noisy tests, the latter creates huge bias away from zero.
1225
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Gabriel Zucman @gabrielzucman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
In bookstores in the UK on May 21 Very much looking forward to this
We Need to Tax Billionaires -- Gabriel Zucman
10425135
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Tim Allinger @timallinger.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
1247
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
IE Political Science Department @iepolisci.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Congratulations to our faculty member Andrew Bertoli, whose paper on analyzing the impact of events through surveys has just come out in @psrm.bsky.social! 🎉 🎉🎉 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Analyzing the impact of events through surveys: formalizing biases and introducing the dual randomized survey design | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Analyzing the impact of events through surveys: formalizing biases and introducing the dual randomized survey design
092
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
29643220
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Massimo Pulejo @mpulejo.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Nice to see it all dressed up! Our paper on politicians' wages, corruption and criminal violence is out in the February issue of AEJ:Policy. Check it out at: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
171
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Christoph Kronenberg @ckronenberg.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
For absolutely no reason, let me remind people of this banger of a paper by @caroartc.bsky.social doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
1117354
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Jamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Can large language models stand in for human participants? Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research. One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want. THREAD 🧵
arxiv.org
The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention
Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...
11341158
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Max Schaub @maxschaub.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Why did antisemitism rise in Germany during the Covid pandemic? And why was this increase concentrated among political centrists, rather than on the fringes? doi.org/10.1017/S153... @kanol.bsky.social @wzb.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de @politikuhh.bsky.social @socfub.bsky.social
doi.org
Cultural Roots of Prejudice: Cultural Scripts and the Reactivation of Antisemitism in Germany | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Cultural Roots of Prejudice: Cultural Scripts and the Reactivation of Antisemitism in Germany
15725
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Representative Seth Magaziner @magaziner.house.gov · 27/01/2026
Reminder that, as of the latest reports, Liam Ramos is still in prison in Texas - now for 5 days. His parents are legal asylum seekers with no criminal record.
6702441010972
Jesper Asring Hansen @jesperasring.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I'm hiring two three-year postdocs and an RA for my project on how police presence affects perceived safety. I'm looking for candidates who can contribute to the theoretical development and who have strong expertise in causal inference. Deadline: March 1. www.stillinger.aau.dk/videnskabeli...
stillinger.aau.dk
Two three-year postdocs in quasi- or survey-experimental social science.
The Department of Society and Politics at Aalborg University (Faculty of Social Sciences) is recruiting two full-time postdoctoral researchers to work on the...
01210
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I love this project. It's very smart and has very important implications. Do make sure to read it if you haven't already:
1133
Reposted by Jesper Asring Hansen
Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis. The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social) Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
14214