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Constitutionally, the economically insecure are more likely to favour independence over other constitutional settlements, with supporters of the status quo and abolish feeling the most secure. This is true across all ages but particularly large gap in middle age.

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Insecurity was predictive of moving away from Labour and the Tories to Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in May 2026. Plaid and Reform voters feel equally insecure, but feel very different about politics 👇

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Insecurity peaks sharply in middle age, echoing the British-wide pattern. Renters, disabled adults, and those with no savings are hit hardest. Social renters with no savings: 60%+ economically insecure. Children in household also a strong predictor of insecurity

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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:

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Reposted by Jac Larner

This is just false, isn't it? Avg levels of trust in Holyrood (mean 4.46 on a 0–10 scale) are higher than levels of trust in W'minster (3.06), so Dundee would have to be way out of line w/ the nat'l picture to trust Holyrood as much as W'minster www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...

electionanalysis.uk

The Meh election? Campaign dynamics in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election - UK Election Analysis

Whilst the 2026 Scottish Parliament election produced a colourful, rainbow parliament, it came out of what was largely characterised as a rather bland campaign.

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Today's young republicans are tomorrow's loyal subjects — support for monarchy rises steadily with age across all generations 👑 Started as office joke but ended with valuable finding about legitimacy of unaccountable institutions. Andrew's latest disgrace not in data, but plenty of earlier ones are

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Richard Wyn Jones @richardwynjones.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

open.substack.com/pub/willhayw... A long read from me on what the hell just happened to Welsh Labour Do please share with anyone who might be interested! Diolch @willhaycardiff.bsky.social and to @jaclarner.bsky.social and Owain Cynfab for the graphics!

open.substack.com

Why Welsh Labour lost

Breaking down why Wales' governing party collapsed so dramatically

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...

eventbrite.com

The Senedd Election 2026: What Happened, and Why? - Post Election Briefing

Etholiad y Senedd 2026: Beth ddigwyddodd, a Pham? - Dadansoddiad Ôl-Etholiad gan yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones a Dr Jac Larner

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We didn’t specify. We have in the past asked about Welsh medium education specifically and patterns broadly same

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Yes we can break it down more and we know British only identifiers are quite different based on whether born in Wales or England. Born in wales = much more socially & economically conservative, in England much more socially liberal Also true that younger voters less British and more progressive

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Always been a bit more fragmented in Wales, but does seem to have changed over last 10 years. In particular Remainers and young people have become less British which means it does a cleaner job of predicting vote

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Means a lot coming from the Don

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One I keep coming back to: Reform voters think Wales's problems have simple solutions (median score: ~2/10). Labour and Plaid voters think they're pretty complex (median: ~6/10). Does this mean Plaid support will be a little more resilient to incumbency?

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Attitudes to language also matter, seemingly making switching easier for some. Lab -> Plaid switchers much happier for family to speak Welsh than those who stuck with Lab

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Plaid voters aren't distinctive because they feel strongly Welsh — Reform voters often do too. What separates them is the absence of Britishness. Plaid's coalition is defined less by Welsh pride than by a declining attachment to Britain.

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The headline is simple & well-established now: Welsh voters consolidated behind the dominant party of the bloc they were already in. About 40% of 2021 Labour voters went to Plaid. 56% of 2021 Tory voters went to Reform.

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

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Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed (Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Ailsa Henderson @ailsahenderson.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp Quebec proposed a model of ...

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Some great stuff here from our PhD student @willdv2002.bsky.social what voters do and don’t know about voting in Senedd 2026 election

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Two ways to read this convergence. 1) campaigns clarify & voters switch on. 2) firms adjusting to avoid being an outlier. Welsh polling has no corrective here (new constituencies, new voting system, more fragmentation) so its tricky for firms to know what is sensible and what isn't

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Notable that much of the variation in Welsh polling has disappeared in the final days of the campaign. The standard deviation in Plaid Cymru estimates across firms fell from 4.3 to 1.8 percentage points since autumn; for Labour, from 5.6 to 2.3 Most convergence happening in last 10 days (1/2)

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The headline findings are worth your time, but Dan’s contribution here is a thoughtful history of how national identity has (and has not) been measured in British surveys over time

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Referendums meant to resolve constitutional questions can erode the very identities that hold a state together — Brexit may be doing exactly that, while creating new polarised ones in their place (see @sarahobolt.bsky.social & Tilley)

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

Long-term change in British identity across three model specifications. In all models Remain voters show a drop in Britishness. In two of the three Leavers also show a drop in Britishness but this is smaller

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Diolch Chris- graphs took the longest haha

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Targeting a 6th seat means hovering around that ~12% threshold where uncertainty is highest — the gap between 10% (2% chance of a seat) and 12% (78%) is narrow, and distinguishing those in any constituency pre-election is very hard. But will add clarifying comment to post 👍

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Fair comment. Worth clarifying: my argument was in context of small parties targeting 6th seats. You’re right “concentrate behind largest” isn’t universal & if party is near a threshold, that’s where votes are most efficient. But new unknown constituencies and poll variation make this hard. ( 1/2)

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Tbf I could make it clearer on graph

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12% will get you a seat in majority of cases but not a certainty- but will all depend on how the vote fragments

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

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In just 2,000 words, @richardhywelking.bsky.social has produced a masterful guide through the last 27 years of Labour in Wales. Essential reading before next Thursday when the Labour century may come to an end www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

lrb.co.uk

Richard King · Labour in Wales

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Reposted by Jac Larner

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales

Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

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On leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth is favourite for First Minister in head to head comparisons, with caveat that a clear majority just aren't sure Will be doing some more on next few days on attitudes to government formation and issues with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

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Tactical voting likely to play a big role in driving vote choice (yes, you can tactically vote in this system) Majority want to stop a Reform government and see Plaid as best placed to stop them, but progressive fragmentation remains Reform's route to being largest party (though not government)

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Welsh polling remains very noisy Reform has dropped off in other polling but steady here 29% would be Plaid's worst Senedd VI from YG since Nov 24 (sceptical of this given other trends both in Wales and UK) Lab bounce driven by MiC polling, but some small hope for them

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 25/03/2026

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

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Reposted by Jac Larner

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

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I don't think ITV published it yet. Seat projection is YouGov's own - they produced constituency level vote estimates and from there it's straightforward to calculate the seats. They did use by 2021 notional results as a baseline but otherwise I haven't been involved

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Good question - a constituency poll overstated it but those are notoriously difficult to do. Reform probably outperformed their national polling but it was a FPTP race (encouraging two horse race) & attracted an unusual amount of media attention. Basically hard to take any real conclusions from it

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Finally, there is some evidence now that Reform's rise in Wales is plateauing

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