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Gary Collins

@gscollins.bsky.social
2.8K followers 461 following 145 posts

Statistician • Professor • 125th Anniversary Chair • University of Birmingham • NIHR Senior Investigator • 🚴‍♂️ Google scholar: tinyurl.com/ysv3zwek TRIPOD+AI: tinyurl.com/2dsb9e75 EQUATOR Network (www.equator-network.org)

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Reposted by Gary Collins
Judith ter Schure @judithterschure.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Biostatisticians! At ISCB AGM-> Proposal for a new subcom: statistics review Are we still firefighting/can we be more effective if we coordinate? @statsepi.bsky.social @jdwilko.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social @benvancalster.bsky.social @gscollins.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Robin Blythe @rbly.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New #healtheconomics #preprint in which we propose a proportionality argument for evaluation of clinical AI: that if the model leads to changes in the way patients are treated, then it must meet the evidentiary standards of that treatment.
papers.ssrn.com
<p><span>Towards Rigorous Economic Evidence for Clinical AI</span></p>
<p><span>Clinical artificial intelligence (AI) joins a long list of technologies that promise to improve healthcare, but lack the evidence that it leads to valu
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Reporting of external validation studies needs improvement: a systematic review of reporting in oncology prediction model studies - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
jclinepi.com
Reporting of external validation studies needs improvement: a systematic review of reporting in oncology prediction model studies
External validation is essential for assessing the generalisability and transportability of a clinical prediction model. A previous review of studies published in 2010 identified substantial deficienc...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
New: TOP 2025 is published in RIPR. This paper updates the original 2015 framework for journals, funders, institutions, and others for promoting open research. Congrats and thanks to the TOP Advisory Board and leadership from @seangrant.bsky.social and @katiecorker.bsky.social
link.springer.com
TOP 2025: An update to the Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines - Research Integrity and Peer Review
Background Transparency and openness are core scientific values that enable independent verification of reported research results. The Transparency and Openness Promotion (TOP) Guidelines, first publi...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
NEW #opensaccess paper "Evidence of unreliable data and poor data provenance in clinical prediction model research and clinical practice" link.springer.com/article/10.1... #researchintegrity #dataprovenance #predictionmodels #predictiveAI
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Alexander Gibson @alexdgibson.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🚨 Protocol -> preregistration -> preprint -> publication 🚨 125 clinical prediction model articles developed on unreliable data on stroke and diabetes. Since preprinting our results 7 articles have been retracted. doi.org/10.1186/s129...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
EQUATOR Network @equatornetwork.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
What influences whether researchers adhere to healthcare reporting guidelines successfully? A thematic synthesis Read more here link.springer.com/article/10.1... #transparency #reportingguidelines
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Melissa Sharp-Crowe, MPH, PhD² @sharpmelk.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
What a fantastic synthesis that looks into why researchers use/adhere to #ReportingGuidelines (And I'm not just saying that because my PhD work was cited in it and evaluated as 💫valuable💫 on the CASP checklist😜) link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
What influences whether researchers adhere to healthcare reporting guidelines successfully? A thematic synthesis - Research Integrity and Peer Review
Background Despite endorsement by medical journals, reporting guidelines have only modestly affected reporting quality in healthcare research. We aimed to identify influences affecting whether authors...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
This paper is worth it for table 1 alone. 👏 @sabinehoffmann11.bsky.social @boulesteixlaure.bsky.social et al onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
When to Adjust for Multiple Testing: A Unifying Guiding Principle
Most original articles published in the medical literature report the results of multiple statistical tests. In a few simple cases, there is agreement on whether to adjust for the number of performed...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
NEW #openaccess PAPER in Lancet Digital Health “Critical appraisal of fairness metrics for artificial intelligence-based clinical prediction models” www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... #predictiveAI #digitaltech #AI #machinelearning #datascience #fairness #healthequity
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
*** NEW PAPER *** The CRT-Estimands Framework - a consensus based extension of the ICH E9(R1) addendum for cluster randomised trials - now been published in the @bmj.com. -> www.bmj.com/content/393/... + commentary in @jama.com -> jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @unibirmingham.bsky.social
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Reposted by Gary Collins
JAMA @jama.com · 21/05/2026
💬 Viewpoint: The #CRT-Estimands Framework defines five key attributes for cluster randomized trials, clarifying treatment effect and supporting accurate result interpretation for clinical stakeholders. ja.ma/4wG0Vcx
An excerpt from JAMA, titled 'The CRT-Estimands Framework for Cluster Randomized Trials' by Brennan C. Kahan, PhD, et al., includes a table outlining attributes and explanations related to study design and analysis.
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Scott McGrath @smcgrath.phd · 15/04/2026
In a new preprint, the authors identify 124 peer-reviewed papers which used provenance-unknown Kaggle data to train AI for stroke and diabetes risk. Some sets show impossible patterns, yet models of the models are already hitting clinics. #MedSky #MedAI
nature.com
Dozens of AI disease-prediction models were trained on dubious data
The models are designed to predict someone’s risk of diabetes or stroke. A few might already have been used on patients.
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Jess Morley @jessrmorley.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
New BMJ Editorial out today from @rocher.lc and me: www.bmj.com/content/393/... - Biobank's response to the news that researchers have accidentally uploaded data to GitHub multiple times is insufficient & risks trust in the UK's health data ecosystem. Everyone needs to feel responsible for privacy.
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Open Access Tracking Project @oatp.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy · 02/04/2026
Why we won’t be funding open access publishing any more - Cancer Research UK - Cancer News news.cancerresearchuk.org/2026/04/0…
news.cancerresearchuk.org
Why we won’t be funding open access publishing any more - Cancer Research UK - Cancer News
The open access movement was bold and promising, but ultimately disappointing. Now is the time to stop and call for a new way to make publishing work…
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Reposted by Gary Collins
World Conferences on Research Integrity @wcrifoundation.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Cancer Research UK withdraws funding for open access charges #OpenAccess #UK #WCRI2026 #WCRI www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-o...
researchprofessionalnews.com
Cancer Research UK withdraws funding for open access charges - Research Professional News
Exclusive: Charitable funder cites “inefficient and costly” system, promising transition for researchers
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
*NOW OPEN FOR BOOKING* - our 4-day online training course: "Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction & Prognostic Models" Provides statistical foundations for developing, validating & updating clinical prediction models Details: www.prognosisresearch.com/training-cou... Book: tinyurl.com/mw7jtjw3
prognosisresearch.com
Training courses | Prognosis Research
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Limited consensus in expert opinions on studies evaluating the design, conduct, analysis, or reporting of health research: a survey study - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
jclinepi.com
Limited consensus in expert opinions on studies evaluating the design, conduct, analysis, or reporting of health research: a survey study
Methodological studies critically evaluate how health research is designed, conducted, analyzed, and reported. Despite their growing importance, currently, there is no reporting tailored to this type ...
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Research Professional News @resprofnews.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Comment: Research funding cuts threaten a whole generation of scientists UK will suffer lasting consequences from disrupted talent pipeline, say Mike Lockwood and James Wild, president and president-elect of @royalastrosoc.bsky.social www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-v...
researchprofessionalnews.com
Research funding cuts threaten a whole generation of scientists - Research Professional News
UK will suffer lasting consequences from disrupted talent pipeline, say Mike Lockwood and James Wild
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Laure Wynants @laurewynants.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
✨ New open-access book✨ I’ve seen how powerful prediction models can be, but also how often they fall short. We wrote a book, covering not just development, but also when models are needed, and how to ensure real-world impact. www.maastrichtuniversitypress.nl/cpm
maastrichtuniversitypress.nl
%%title%% %%sep%% Maastricht University Press
Open Access book by Luc Smits, Sander van Kuijk, and Laure Wynants: This open-access textbook offers a practical and comprehensive guide to developing, validating, and implementing clinical prediction...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
NEW PREPRINT: “A critical review of clinical prediction models in oncology: is this SEERious research?” --> doi.org/10.31222/osf... #ClinicalPredictionModels #ResearchIntegrity #ResearchWaste #metascience #metaresearch
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Hi @medrxivpreprint.bsky.social. Two (meta-research type) preprints rejected today for being out of scope for not having a meta-analysis, yet you regularly accept and preprint these types of studies (without meta-analyses), any clues for inconsistent screening today?
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Research Professional News @resprofnews.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Redundancies at research-intensive universities double in two years. www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...
researchprofessionalnews.com
Job losses at research-intensive universities double in two years - Research Professional News
Exclusive: Scale of redundancies revealed by RPN branded a “disaster” for UK research capacity
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Reese Richardson @reeserichardson.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
when your dataset is definitely real
A black and white scatterplot with Patient ID on the x axis and blood glucose level on the y axis. The caption reads:

Figure 2. Average blood glucose level plotted against the patient identifier for the stroke dataset.
The plot shows a clear shift in the distribution of glucose at half the maximum ID variable.Two black and white scatter plots with BMI on the y axis and blood glucose level or HbA1c level on the x axis. The caption reads:

Figure 3. “A” Blood Glucose level plotted against BMI. “B” HbA1c level plotted against BMI for the diabetes data. There were just 18 discrete results for blood glucose and HbA1c which is not plausible in real health data.
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Adrian Barnett @aidybarnett.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Much of my work in meta-research is on finding problems in research, so I've seen a lot of bad practices. However, even I was shocked by hundreds of researchers publishing papers using data that is faked and has no data provenance. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6.... Amazing work by my student Alex.
medrxiv.org
Evidence of Unreliable Data and Poor Data Provenance in Clinical Prediction Model Research and Clinical Practice
Clinical prediction models are often created using large routinely collected datasets. It is essential that prediction models are developed with appropriate data and methods and transparently reported...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Research Professional News @resprofnews.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Job losses at UK research-intensive universities double in two years. Exclusive: Scale of redundancies branded a “disaster”. www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...
researchprofessionalnews.com
Job losses at research-intensive universities double in two years - Research Professional News
Exclusive: Scale of redundancies revealed branded a “disaster” for UK research capacity
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Reposted by Gary Collins
TRIPOD Statement @tripodstatement.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
We are setting out to develop some new recommendations (TRIPOD-CODE) to provide guidance on reporting the availability and structure of code for predictive AI healthcare tools Watch this space, and read the protocol here link.springer.com/article/10.1... #transparency #code #reproducibility
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
NEW #openaccess paper in @bmj.com led by the brilliant @matthewluney.bsky.social "Effectiveness of drug interventions to prevent delirium after surgery for older adults: systematic review and network meta-analysis of RCTs" --> www.bmj.com/content/392/... #NIHR #surgery #delirium
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
NEW #openaccess PAPER in BMJ Digital Health & AI "Public perceptions of health data sharing for artificial intelligence research: a qualitative focus group study in the UK" --> bmjdigitalhealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/... #digitalhealth #AI #publicperceptions #datasharing
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Nan van Geloven @gelovennan.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Two openings for PhD candidates: 1️⃣ Use causal inference methods for early evaluation of the downstream effect of algorithms on patient outcomes. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum... 2️⃣ Develop methods for evaluating patient predictions under different treatment options. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Interested in learning about IPD meta-analysis projects? Join me for a gentle introduction to the topic, in the seminar below (Wednesday Jan 28th 12 to 1pm GMT) www.ticketsource.co.uk/arcyorkshire...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Adherence to TRIPOD+AI guideline: An updated reporting assessment tool - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
jclinepi.com
Adherence to TRIPOD+AI guideline: An updated reporting assessment tool
Incomplete reporting of research limits its usefulness and contributes to research waste. Numerous reporting guidelines have been developed to support complete and accurate reporting of healthcare res...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Nan Liu, Duke-NUS @nliulab.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Delighted to share our new Perspective, published in the inaugural issue of @natureportfolio.nature.com 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵. We shared opportunities and challenges of using large language models (LLMs) in global health. www.nature.com/articles/s44... #AI #LLM #Global #Health #DukeNUS
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Nature Health @nathealth.nature.com · 15/01/2026
Large language models in global health. Perspective from Nan Liu and colleagues #AI #healthAI #LLM www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Large language models in global health - Nature Health
Large language models (LLMs) are emerging as powerful tools in healthcare, with a growing role in global health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This Perspective examines the current...
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Colby Vorland @colbyvorland.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
I launched version 3.0 of my browser extension "Lazy Scholar", a free in-browser research assistant. It opens automatically when you load an academic article. See: lazyscholar.org/2026/01/10/l...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/01/2026
Some people bring up (1) the cost of criticism and (2) that a lot of criticism has already been voiced but ignored. Both points are valid, so here are some suggestion for (1) reducing backlash and (2) increasing impact (from this talk of mine: juliarohrer.com/wp-content/u...
youtube.com
CIIG Seminar: Julia Rohrer | Making Rigorous Causal Inference More Mainstream | 20 Oct 2025
YouTube video by the Causal Inference Interest Group (CIIG)
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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Doug Altman - an eternal inspiration for all medical statisticians and non-statistician medical researchers. #StatsSky #Statistics
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
End of year reminder: the TRIPOD+AI reporting guideline is reporting standard for all clinical prediction model studies, including those using machine learning and AI. --> www.bmj.com/content/385/...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
"The making of a statistician: Doug Altman" - just published in @bmj.com celebrating his 1 million citations and reflecting on his remarkable career and legacy. One of the most influential statisticians in modern medical research. --> www.bmj.com/content/391/... #BMJChristmas #methodologymatters
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Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
jclinepi.com
Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals
When recruiting participants to a new study developing a clinical prediction model (CPM), sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. This le...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
ICYMI: "Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations" --> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/... #machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter
bmjoncology.bmj.com
Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations
Clinical prediction models are widely developed in the field of oncology, providing individualised risk estimates to aid diagnosis and prognosis. Machine learning methods are increasingly being used t...
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
"How can funders avoid crossing the Szilard point?" The Szilard point is "the threshold at which the total cost of competing for a grant equals (or surpasses) the value of the available funding."
nature.com
Point of no returns: researchers are crossing a threshold in the fight for funding
With so little money to go round, the costs of competing for grants can exceed what the grants are worth. When that happens, nobody wins.
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Reposted by Gary Collins
The BMJ @bmj.com · 17/12/2025
Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser. Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire" #BMJChristmas www.bmj.com/content/391/...
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Gary Collins @gscollins.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
ICYMI: NEW PAPER "Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance" --> doi.org/10.1016/j.la... #AI #Machinelearning #predictiveAI
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Reposted by Gary Collins
Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
NEW PAPER: A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 2: time-to-event outcomes * Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions rdcu.be/eUVam
rdcu.be
A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models — part 2: time-to-event outcomes
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out! - Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things - Calibration and clinical utility are key - Show risk distributions - Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance
Numerous measures have been proposed to illustrate the performance of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential for predictive AI models i...
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Andrew Vickers @vickersbiostats.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Machine learning has developed remarkable new ideas about how to develop prediction algorithms. But always baffled me why the field had to reinvent how to evaluate models. Here we show F score should not be used to evaluate medical prediction models link.springer.com/epdf/10.1186...
link.springer.com
The F score ranks diagnostic tests and prediction models inconsistently with their clinical utility
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Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
NEW PAPER The use of explainable AI in healthcare evaluated using the well known Explain, Predict and Describe taxonomy by Galit Shmueli link.springer.com/article/10.1...
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Paolo Crosetto @paolocrosetto.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma. It's *scientific publishing*. We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_... Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
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