iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

We've got two online IPD meta-analysis training courses this Autumn, with places still available - one is a general introduction about doing IPDMA projects (the whole process, not just the stats bit) & the other is about the statistical modelling aspects - more here: www.ipdma.co.uk/training-cou...

ipdma.co.uk

Training courses | IPD Meta-Analysis

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Simon Guerrier @0tralala.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

For those who haven’t seen, a little something me and @stevecolewriter.bsky.social have been busy on…

Image showing two books: Doctor Who - The Six Doctors by Terrance Dicks and Simon Guerrier; and Doctor Who - The Vampire Muratioj by Terrance Dicks and Steve Cole.

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Radio Free Skaro 🇨🇦 @radiofreeskaro.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

This weekend, we at Radio Free Skaro celebrate our 20th anniversary episode with a bumper edition of #FluidLinks! Send in your questions and comments about Doctor Who, about its future, or even about Radio Free Skaro. Thanks for all your support over the past two decades!

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Looking forward to this release in January …. we’ve still got new Who in 2027 thanks to @0tralala.bsky.social

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Simon Guerrier @0tralala.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

My talk about David McKee, Mr Benn and Elmer the patchwork elephant, relating to the exhibition at St Barbe Museum + Art Gallery, is now up on YouTube if that might be of interest: m.youtube.com/watch?v=Htxq...

m.youtube.com

St Barbe Friday Friends Talk - The David McKee Sketchbook

YouTube video by St Barbe Museum + Art Gallery

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Gav Rymill @themindrobber.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

North west Who fans! 🧠🚨 Join us in Chester for an evening of Time Lord quiz fun! Music, pictures, general Who knowledge! Tag your Merseyside, Cheshire & North Wales friends! 🏷️ 11 Aug @ 7.30 Spookton CH1 3QL Tickets £3 only from www.themindrobber.co.uk/quiz Retweets and shares appreciated! 🫶🏻

Promotional poster for a Doctor Who Quiz Night in Chester, hosted by Gav Rymill on 11th August at 7.30pm. The quiz covers classic and new series, with picture and music rounds, and costs £3 per player. The poster features a Dalek, Cyberman, Ice Warrior and Amy Pond. Venue: Spookton Brew Co., Saint Thomas Pathway, off Queen Street, Chester CH1 3LQ. Booking link: bit.ly/dwchester.

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Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)

Robin Blythe @rbly.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

About once a month, for the last few years, I've been asked for a sample size in a prediction study and have been able to either point to pmsampsize or just run a quick sim myself. This package is such a blessed contribution to #rstats and #statsky @joieensor.bsky.social @richarddriley.bsky.social

cran.r-project.org

pmsampsize: Sample Size for Development of a Prediction Model

Computes the minimum sample size required for the development of a new multivariable prediction model using the criteria proposed by Riley et al. (2018) <<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fsim.7992...

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👻madeline bOoOoOoOodent👻 @oldenoughtosay.com · 08/07/2026

Right. Okay. This requires some backstory. In 1984, a small, low budget film studio in North Carolina produced a parody of Star Wars, called Hyperspace. It was released in the U.K. as ‘Gremloids’. The main character, shown here, was Lord Buckethead.

A somewhat grainy, sorry, theatrical release poster.

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Online talk today at 11am UK time "A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm: with application to clinical prediction models" register to attend: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

⭐ NEW PAPER: "Agreement between heuristic shrinkage factor and optimal shrinkage factors in logistic regression for risk prediction: a simulation study across different sample sizes and settings" - led brilliantly by Alex Pate with @glenmartin.bsky.social & myself link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

Agreement between heuristic shrinkage factor and optimal shrinkage factors in logistic regression for risk prediction: a simulation study across different sample sizes and settings - Diagnostic and Pr...

Diagnostic and Prognostic Research -

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

NEW VIDEO: "Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models" - a broad 20 minute introduction, concluding with some exciting news for the field! youtu.be/CgYvaOG2Ta8

youtu.be

Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

NEW VIDEO: "Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models" - a broad 20 minute introduction, concluding with some exciting news for the field! youtu.be/CgYvaOG2Ta8

youtu.be

Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Doctor Who's 2026 Christmas episode cancelled! Clearly the BBC have not read @bmj.com research article 'proving' that new Who at Christmas reduces mortality rates in the UK .... www.bmj.com/content/383/... #DoctorWho @radiofreeskaro.bsky.social

bmj.com

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

COURSE: 'Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction & Prognostic Models' - last chance to book for this online course (6th to 9th July 2026) - more details at www.prognosisresearch.com/training-cou...

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

🎬 NEW VIDEO: 'Clinical Prediction Models & The Multiverse of Madness' youtu.be/C3dcLNc62v8 Most models provide just a single estimate of risk for an individual - here I show this may hide large uncertainty, framed as a 'multiverse' of possible models & predictions, & discuss if & how to address it

youtu.be

Clinical Prediction Models & The Multiverse of Madness

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

Our book “Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis: A Handbook for Healthcare Research” was released five years ago this month! Thanks so much for all the feedback - lovely hearing how much it has helped researchers on their IPDMA journey. That’s exactly why we wrote it! 5 years already … how?!

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

🎬 I've just uploaded a new video explaining the premise of our new general sample size framework for prediction model development, and how it embeds and extends previous work youtu.be/eglPq1aTl7k

youtu.be

A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm (prediction model)

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

⭐ NEW: "A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm: with application to clinical prediction models" rdcu.be/fjYDm Embeds all previous calculations (eg, pmsampsize) & extends to calculate assurance probabilities for clinical utility & model degradation ...

rdcu.be

A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm: with application to clinical prediction models

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Today at 1pm (BST) 🗣️ Speaker: Penny Whiting (University of Bristol) "Introducing QUADAS‑3: An updated tool to assess risk of bias and applicability of diagnostic test accuracy studies" 📅 Date: Tuesday 12th May 2026 🕐 Time: 1–2pm BST 📍 Location: Zoom 🔗 Register: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

lnkd.in

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

My wife’s short film ‘Opening Up’ is now free to watch! A romantic comedy drama starring Tamsin Outhwaite and Gary Beadle, it’s won lots of festival awards and was even selected for the HollyShorts Film Festival in LA. Enjoy 🙏 www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEdy...

youtube.com

Opening Up | Drama Short Film | British Romance

YouTube video by CenterFrame | Filmmakers Community

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

⭐ Now published: trilogy of articles proposing how to calculate the sample size for building a prediction model that targets precise & fair predictions at individual level. part 1: binary outcomes - pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40624575/ part 2: time-to-event outcomes - pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41402895/

lnkd.in

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Regression Modeling Strategies 4-day virtual course May 14-15, 18-19. More than regression:principled flexible modeling, accuracy, interpretation, selection, stability, validation, Bayes, contrast w/ML &more. hbiostat.org/course @amstatnews.bsky.social @instats.bsky.social #Statistics #StatsSky

hbiostat.org

Courses

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

youtube.com

Opening Up | Drama Short Film | British Romance

YouTube video by CenterFrame | Filmmakers Community

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The Whoovers @thewhoovers.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

#Whooverville 17 Official Guest Announcement We are thrilled that ANITA DOBSON (Mrs Flood/The Rani) has agreed to join us at QUAD Derby Saturday 5 September. @andydrewz.bsky.social @stephenhatcher.bsky.social

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

*NOW OPEN FOR BOOKING* - our 4-day online training course: "Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction & Prognostic Models" Provides statistical foundations for developing, validating & updating clinical prediction models Details: www.prognosisresearch.com/training-cou... Book: tinyurl.com/mw7jtjw3

prognosisresearch.com

Training courses | Prognosis Research

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

Doing AI research for health prediction? This talk explains why sample size is a very important consideration … youtu.be/EN8NuKBS0W4?...

youtu.be

Importance of sample size for AI-based prediction models in healthcare

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Personal news: from April I will be Chair of the NIHR Evidence Synthesis Programme Funding Committee This is a privilege & I look forward to supporting NIHR in funding clinically impactful reviews with strong methodological foundation Funding call open till 18th May www.nihr.ac.uk/funding/evid...

nihr.ac.uk

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Interesting in contributing to an NIHR panel that funds evidence synthesis projects? See below. This is a fantastic opportunity - deadline 24th March. Committee members will need to be available for the Funding Committee being held on 29 and 30 July 2026. www.nihr.ac.uk/get-involved...

nihr.ac.uk

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

@glenmartin.bsky.social is giving an online seminar: "Missing Data: The Missing Component in Guidance for Developing, Validating and Implementing Prediction Models" 📅 Date: Tuesday 10th March 2026 🕐 Time: 1–2pm GMT 📍 Location: Online 🔗 Register here to receive the Teams link: lnkd.in/ejk7EFzC

lnkd.in

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Next RSS discussion meeting has picked a great topic: 'Regression by composition' by Daniel Farewell, Rhian Daniel et al. Tuesday, 24 March 2026; Imperial College London, and online. Time: 4pm to 6pm (UK time) Introductory DeMO 2:15pm to 3:15pm Registration here: rss.org.uk/training-eve...

rss.org.uk

Discussion paper meetings

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

⭐ NEW VIDEO 🎬 : "The importance of sample size for the development & evaluation of AI-based prediction models for healthcare" youtu.be/EN8NuKBS0W4 Training or evaluating prediction models for AI-based healthcare? This talk is for you!

youtu.be

Importance of sample size for AI-based prediction models in healthcare

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

youtu.be

Importance of sample size for AI-based prediction models in healthcare

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

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Hayley Jones @profhayleyjones.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

📣 PhD studentship - Biostatistics 💻 University of Bristol, UK Help improve methods for something that affects us all - how accurate are tests for disease? Learn, apply & develop Bayesian models to estimate accuracy from varying study designs, synthesise evidence & optimise design of future studies

findaphd.com

Design and analysis to estimate diagnostic test accuracy without universal verification at University of Bristol on FindAPhD.com

PhD Project - Design and analysis to estimate diagnostic test accuracy without universal verification at University of Bristol, listed on FindAPhD.com

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

⭐ NEW PAPER ⭐ on a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models - account for uncertainty in the assumed true performance of the model - plus calculate assurance probabilities & the value of information onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Wow this is a breakthrough in validation of predictive models that fully accounts for point estimates used in predictions being only point estimates. Great work @richarddriley.bsky.social and colleagues! #Statistics #StatsSky

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

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Simon Guerrier @0tralala.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

Space… opera. My piece on Blake’s 7 in today’s print edition of the Daily Telegraph

Photo of page from Daily Telegraph with headline “My open letter to the makers of the new Blake’s 7 reboot” and some columns of text, followed by an advert for three operas

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Nan van Geloven @gelovennan.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Two openings for PhD candidates: 1️⃣ Use causal inference methods for early evaluation of the downstream effect of algorithms on patient outcomes. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum... 2️⃣ Develop methods for evaluating patient predictions under different treatment options. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum...

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Interested in learning about IPD meta-analysis projects? Join me for a gentle introduction to the topic, in the seminar below (Wednesday Jan 28th 12 to 1pm GMT) www.ticketsource.co.uk/arcyorkshire...

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Rachel Talalay @racheltalalay.com · 18/01/2026

Unseen footage The Doctor Falls. especially for actors/writers. Tribute to Capaldi/Moffat. New content on my youTube channel: youtu.be/9-ysp77GKN0

youtu.be

Unseen, Uncut Dailies & Edits: The Doctor Falls "Be Kind" Speech

YouTube video by How I Filmed This - Rachel Talalay

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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

** NEW PAPER in BMJ ** "AMSTAR-PF: a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies" Allows the quality of prognostic factor reviews to be examined. Brilliantly led by Michael L Henry. www.bmj.com/content/391/...

bmj.com

AMSTAR-PF: a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies

The ability to predict the onset or natural history of an illness, or how people may respond to a treatment, guides clinical decision making. These predictions are commonly based on prognostic factors...

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