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Ben Van Calster

@benvancalster.bsky.social
798 followers 215 following 41 posts

Medical Statistician at KU Leuven. My brain is like a snail but it gets there in the end (or not).

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Regarding metric- vs content-based science, I see 3 general positions: - Idealists: contents matter 100%; highly needed but most disappear (frustration, don't get promotions) - Pragmatists: focus on content but use metrics to survive - Conformists: metrics matter 100%
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Happy to see this in print! doi 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042324-123749 @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social @vanamsterdam.bsky.social and Ewout Steyerberg
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The BMJ @bmj.com · 17/12/2025
Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser. Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire" #BMJChristmas www.bmj.com/content/391/...
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out! - Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things - Calibration and clinical utility are key - Show risk distributions - Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance
Numerous measures have been proposed to illustrate the performance of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential for predictive AI models i...
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Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Expertise is having fucked up in enough different ways that you become able to anticipate it.
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
In our latest work, we show that risk estimates for patients are HUGELY uncertain due to model, data, and population uncertainty. Even for well performing models (c statistic, calibration, utility) based on large N. @laure_wynants @ESteyerberg @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social arxiv.org/abs/2506.17141
arxiv.org
The fundamental problem of risk prediction for individuals: health AI, uncertainty, and personalized medicine
Background: Clinical prediction models for a health condition are commonly evaluated regarding performance for a population, although decisions are made for individuals. The classic view relates uncer...
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Universities love open science Small print: unless money is involved
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Dorothy Bishop @deevybee.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
Huge variability documented in how publishers respond when informed about a problematic body of work by a research group. www.jclinepi.com/article/S089... #publishers #retractions
Bar chart showing % of articles retracted, with expression of concern, or no action from different publishers. 100% no action from Elsevier and Wolters Kluwer; 100% retraction from Taylor and Francis.
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Triad sou. @triadsou.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Multiple Imputation of Missing Covariates When Using the Fine–Gray Model. Edouard F. Bonneville, Jan Beyersmann, Ruth H. Keogh, Jonathan W. Bartlett, Tim P. Morris, Nicola Polverelli, Liesbeth C. de Wreede, Hein Putter. Statistics in Medicine. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Multiple Imputation of Missing Covariates When Using the Fine–Gray Model
The Fine–Gray model for the subdistribution hazard is commonly used for estimating associations between covariates and competing risks outcomes. When there are missing values in the covariates includ...
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Seconded. Any time someone uses this term, make sure they explain exactly what they mean. If they can't, they are obviously trying to bullshit you.
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Samuel Moore @samuelmoore.org · 13/07/2025
“Volume is a bad driver,” [Sir Mark Walport] said. “The incentive should be quality, not quantity. It’s about re-engineering the system in a way that encourages good research from beginning to end.” www.theguardian.com/science/2025...
theguardian.com
Quality of scientific papers questioned as academics ‘overwhelmed’ by the millions published
Widespread mockery of AI-generated rat with giant penis in one paper brings problem to public attention
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Ricki☕🪄 @rickihirsch.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders? Data isn't objective and researchers have innumerable ways to put their thumbs on the scale. Many don't understand statistics well enough to realize they're doing it.
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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
**New Lancet DH paper** "Importance of sample size on the quality & utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare" - for broad audience - explains why inadequate SS harms #AI model training, evaluation & performance - pushback to claims SS irrelevant to AI research 👇 tinyurl.com/yrje52fn
sciencedirect.com
Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare
Rigorous study design and analytical standards are required to generate reliable findings in healthcare from artificial intelligence (AI) research. On…
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
I recently had a paper in a journal where the fee for open access was lower than the fee for closed access. Is that common? @grahamkendall.bsky.social
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 13/03/2025
Oh, there's an English version as well! DW reports about misconduct at Max Planck Institutes: www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5nE...
youtube.com
How Germany's elite research institution fails young scientists | DW Documentary
YouTube video by DW Documentary
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
PROBAST+AI is out! www.bmj.com/content/388/...
bmj.com
PROBAST+AI: an updated quality, risk of bias, and applicability assessment tool for prediction models using regression or artificial intelligence methods
The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) is used to assess the quality, risk of bias, and applicability of prediction models or algorithms and of prediction model/algorithm studies....
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Lasai Barreñada, "Lasso" @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
I will be presenting our recent work on individual risk estimation uncertainty at ENAR in New Orleans. Come say hi! Work with @benvancalster.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social #DoranneThomassen #EwoutSteyerberg
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Quousque tandem? @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social @fwovlaanderen.bsky.social A lot of publications in MDPI journals also in Flanders, despite it being listed on predatoryjournals.org.
predatorypublishers.org
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Eric Schares @eschares.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
🚨 Preprint! We combine our recent open dataset of #APC prices with the article counts per journal-year from #OpenAlex to estimate how much the academic community has paid in APCs over the last 5 years. A. $8.349 billion ($8.968 B in 2023 USD) $2.5B in 2023 alone. arxiv.org/abs/2407.16551 #metasci
arxiv.org
Estimating global article processing charges paid to six publishers for open access between 2019 and 2023
This study presents estimates of the global expenditure on article processing charges (APCs) paid to six publishers for open access between 2019 and 2023. APCs are fees charged for publishing in some ...
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Dr Abeba Birhane @abeba.blacksky.app · 14/03/2025
my life would radically improve if i weren’t subjected to microsoft products..,. like my days would feel a 1000 x better
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Lasai Barreñada, "Lasso" @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
NEW PREPRINT 📊: We propose 3 methods to obtain flexible calibration plots while accounting for clustering: 1. Clustered Group Calibration (CG-C) 2. Two-Stage Meta-Analysis Calibration (2MA-C) 3. Mixed Model Calibration (MIX-C) Ready-to-use R code included!
Different calibration plots taking clustering into account
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
We tried to look at ways to obtain flexible calibration plots in clustered (e.g. multicenter) validation studies. Work with @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social @bavodccampo.bsky.social arxiv.org/abs/2503.08389
arxiv.org
Clustered Flexible Calibration Plots For Binary Outcomes Using Random Effects Modeling
Evaluation of clinical prediction models across multiple clusters, whether centers or datasets, is becoming increasingly common. A comprehensive evaluation includes an assessment of the agreement betw...
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
It is a good day today, I got the reviewer comment "please consult a statistician" again.
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Andreas De Block @andreasdeblock.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
'Onze universiteit roept op tot evidence-based beleid, maar zelf volgt de rector zijn buikgevoel' www.veto.be/onderzoek/on...
veto.be
'Onze universiteit roept op tot evidence-based beleid, maar zelf volgt de rector zijn buikgevoel'
Professor wetenschapsfilosofie Andreas De Block zat acht jaar lang de rectorale denktank rond basisfinanciering voor. Hij blikt teleurgesteld terug op het afgelegde traject: 'De uitkomst moest altijd ...
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Nikolay Tumanov @ntumanovxray.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Bad. But how bad? I once asked myself, while finding fakes in the Scientific Report @natureportfolio.bsky.social. So I decide to "do my our research" - I took 100 articles in a row from Physical sciences that contains diffraction. Result - 15 fakes out 100. Details in the 🧵 #ResearchIntegrity 1/x
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Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
NEW PREPRINT A detailed overview of 32 popular predictive performance metrics for prediction models arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
New work in preprint! "Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance". Under the wings of the STRATOS initiative. But @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social said it better already 😜 arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288
arxiv.org
Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance
A myriad of measures to illustrate performance of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models have been proposed in the literature. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential for predi...
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Is this something everybody knows already but me? The joy of EHR! www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB_t...
youtube.com
EHR State of Mind | An Electronic Medical Records Parody
YouTube video by ZDoggMD
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Alejandro Montenegro @aemonten.bsky.social · 09/11/2024
FFS www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 10/10/2024
Covariate adjustment = AI digital twins 😆 Such dishonesty Good luck regulators and HTAs. I hope you are able to hold the line and insist on evidence for all the claims in this advert. www.insideprecisionmedicine.com/topics/infor...
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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 09/10/2024
I'm always getting stuck when I try to sharply define (the differences between) biases like information bias, observer bias, detection bias, and ascertainment bias. I read quite some contradicting things. How should I see this?
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Stephen Curry @scurry.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
I will not be completing this survey and would encourage everyone else to do likewise. These opinions are converted into so called measurements of university performance in the THE World University Rankings - a ridiculous and damaging exercise for the sector.
Image of an email from Times Higher Education. Reads “Dear Stephen Curry,
We at Times Higher Education, through our partner network the World 100 Reputation Network, are assessing the reputation of universities and your views will be greatly appreciated.
We would like to invite you, as one of our academic colleagues, to take part in
and
a short online survey designed to understand and measure university reputation. We are looking to find out your opinions of top universities globally.
The survey should take no more than 10 minutes to complete.”
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