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Erika McEntarfer

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
17K followers 488 following 391 posts

Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ex-Council of Economic Advisers, Census, and Treasury. Bay Area/DC dual citizen. Personal account, all opinions my own

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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 6m
Earlier in my career, I spent a lot of time using the latest methods to improve an imputation or forecast, only to run a race between the improved method and the simple model it replaced and find that a simple model is actually pretty hard to beat. What are others' experiences here?
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Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen @andbjn.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Our large-scale study of phone bans just came out in Science. We randomized phone-free classrooms for 16,000+ students across 10 institutions in Odisha, India. Students deposited phones in a box at the start of each class, for a full semester.
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Heather Tubbs Cooley, PhD, RN, FAAN @heathertubbscooley.bsky.social · 8h
I’m not supposed to say this because I’m faculty in a school of nursing and the shortage narrative pays my bills, but we really don’t need more nurses or possibly even nurse practitioners. We do need systems that will treat them as valuable human capital. Nurses are seen as very replaceable.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Really not great for efforts to increase housing supply that input prices keep rising.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Some red-hot PPI numbers this morning, not good news for how energy prices might bleed into broader inflation pressures www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Producer Prices Rise by Most in More Than Four Years
US producer prices rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years as higher energy costs reverberated through the US economy.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
One of the eyebrow-raising findings from the child earnings penalty literature is that a lasting penalty only accrues to women partnered with men, moms and dads in same-sex partnerships experience either a short period of earnings loss and quick recovery or no penalty at all
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This is extremely Bard-coded humor
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FinancialJuice @financialjuice.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Fed's Daly: more rate hikes likely, timing still under consideration
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
You can see a preview of this in local markets that have experienced population declines. Housing is relatively cheap but the housing stock depreciates faster and there is litle new construction so the supply effects somewhat mute the demand effects
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
AI isn't in the productivity data yet. -T at Apollo Output/hour is ∼2.5% but SF Fed TFP is ∼0% and flat since the AI boom started. Capital deepening.. not innovation.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Has AI generated a boom in entrepreneurship? It would make sense that it would - AI makes it easier to go out on your own and creates demand for new business services. But Nathan Goldschlag at EIG finds no strong evidence that AI is boosting new business formation yet. eig.org/ai-and-entre...
eig.org
AI and Entrepreneurship: What is Really Happening?
A new EIG report triangulates across different types of data to get a sense of what has been happening to entrepreneurship over the past few years — and the extent to which AI is driving the trends.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This image, from the forced ouster of NIH director Francis Collins, is just unbelievably gutting and enraging
But when he describes the day Collins was compelled to leave the job he loved, Lewis writes that Collins called “his wife, who picked him up to drive him home. He left carrying a small cardboard box with a few pictures, a spare necktie, some ramen noodle packages, and a mirror made by children in NIH clinical trials, all of whom had died. He’d bought it at an auction to raise money for a children’s hospital.” Although personally modest, Collins has an impressive record. He headed the Human Genome Project and was instrumental in identifying the gene responsible for cystic fibrosis. The “small cardboard box,” in this light, makes for an especially poignant touch at the end of an extraordinary career.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
'Blockers' is out now. slate.com/culture/2026...
slate.com
The Guy Behind The Big Short and Moneyball Is Back to Take On Elon Musk and DOGE. It’s a Roller Coaster.
Michael Lewis’ Blockers tells the stories of good public servants driven away by the Trump administration.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
New NY Fed research finds that: (1) tariff pass-through through import prices was 1-to-1, (2) pass-through to consumer prices from increased import/producer prices was about 50%, (3) tariff impacts on inflation peaked in February. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? - Liberty Street Economics
A look at how much of U.S. tariffs reach consumers and how quickly, tracing tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Good on Michael Lewis for giving the DOGE story the journalistic-thriller treatment it deserves. Two events that fundamentally shook my sense of this country's stability were January 6th, 2021, and the six months I spent dealing with DOGE.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In streamed an army of cops...and, trotting after them, Nate Cavanaugh, along with more DOGE people. “They are ordering the D.C. cops around like their own private army,” said Colin. “I didn’t see that coming. I didn’t see the police taking sides.” www.wsj.com/politics/mic...
wsj.com
Essay | Exclusive | Michael Lewis on the Lone Security Guard Who Resisted DOGE
In an exclusive excerpt from “Blockers,” the inside story of the high-stakes D.C. standoff where security chief Colin O’Brien fought off DOGE operatives.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“AI is identifying more billable conditions, not sicker patients“ interesting article on AI cost pressure in health care
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Aldis are more common than Costco in rural areas, and rural areas have older populations than urban/suburban areas; familiarity may explain these generational differences.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/weak...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
(WSJ) - For decades, the Federal Reserve's playbook for oil shocks has been to wait them out. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that approach has reached its limit. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
So what is the cheaper alternative? Genuine question
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I have a chronic issue that the AI will tell me a certain paper can be cited as evidence for a claim and I will go read the paper and find that AI incorrectly characterized the findings
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Text from the article in the link
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Justice, at long last, for Andreas Georgiou. A brave and honorable man
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so... The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
aleximas.substack.com
Will AI soon lead to double-digit growth?
Probably not. Here is why.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
BREAKING: Trump admin proposes major #2030Census changes that would reshape voting maps, including no race & ethnicity questions and excluding non-U.S. citizens without a green card from a count that 14th Amendment says must include “whole number of persons in each state” www.npr.org/2026/09/09/n...
npr.org
Trump officials propose sweeping changes to the census that would reshape voting maps
A Trump census proposal would stop asking about race and exclude millions of U.S. residents from a count that the 14th Amendment says must include the "whole number of persons in each state."
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Vittoria Elliott @telliotter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
SCOOP: An anonymous census report claimed thousands of noncitizens voted. But @davidgilbert.bsky.social and I found that not only was the report based on bad data, its authors include members of a Trump-aligned think tank and a former member of DOGE. @wired.com www.wired.com/story/a-us-c...
wired.com
A US Census Report on Noncitizen Voting Used Bad Data to Reach Faulty Conclusions
Trump has touted a recent Census report. WIRED found grave flaws in its analysis and the process behind it, and confirmed the identity of several of its authors—among them a one-time DOGE affiliate.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
What's happening here has little to do with AI and more to do with structural change in the information sector, which is shedding jobs in legacy industries like telecom, media, and - more recently - motion pictures (covid, strikes, not recovering). The sector is not a good proxy for 'tech' jobs.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Jed Kolko, former Commerce official overseeing Census and BEA, on the worrying signs of political interference at Census www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I would say it's another very troubling sign that Commerce intends to interfere further with the statistical and scientific agencies under its purview.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
This change grants Commerce political appointees veto power over data and research releases by scientists and statisticians at NOAA, NIST, Census, and BEA.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
They've got good former economics reporters there on the comms team
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Even likelier is that the final absolute size of the revision is pretty close to zero, the payroll survey just nailed it. Since ‘government got it right’ is a non-story that means we will all move on to Jackson Hole but kudos to BLS for amazing work measuring this vast and dynamic economy.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
A very small preliminary benchmark revision meaning the payroll survey did a pretty amazing job estimating job growth last year. Since the pattern for QCEW revisions is that they are revised up this may convert to a small positive revision in Feb.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Is that a boxer I see?
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Southern cooking methods as a means of destroying food-born bacteria is actually an interesting thesis. Collards are also probably very safe (and also delicious)
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Now that you are worried about how things are going at Census, the answer appears to be 'not great'; nice FT piece out yesterday on planning for the 2030 Decennial www.ft.com/content/7c9c...
ft.com
Who counts in Trump’s America?
Gillian Tett on the president’s bid to reform the 10-year census, and the explosive politics behind who gets included and who gets to decide
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
John Abowd (director of research at Census during the 2020 Decennial) on LinkedIn, on the same topic: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
linkedin.com
Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis | John Abowd
Many people and reporters have asked me about this post: https://lnkd.in/eUaF3sT5 Here are my answers to the most common questions: 1.      How common is it for the Census Bureau to issue a report...
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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Treasuries in trouble? Greg Ip @wsj.com looks at signs that U.S. debt is losing its status as the world's "safe" asset. Article cites evidence in a new study from SIEPR Senior Fellow @hannolustig.bsky.social showing that investor doubts started in 2020. Gift link + study ⤵️
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Amy O’Hara wrote up a longer piece on all of the red flags in the ‘Census’ report on noncitizen voting. mdi.georgetown.edu/response-to-...
mdi.georgetown.edu
Dissecting the “Beginning Analysis” of Noncitizen Voting - Massive Data Institute
Author: Amy O’Hara,  Director of the Massive Data Institute at the McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University Rigorous scientific research into voting in U.S. elections consistently finds ...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"'This brief lacks any sort of measures of variance or discussion of bias,' says O'Hara, who now directs Georgetown University's Massive Data Institute." Amy led the Census division responsible for data record linkage; she knows what she's talking about here.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"Work on the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau, and the team behind it included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump's first administration.." www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...
npr.org
Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting
A Trump-aligned think tank has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, NPR has learned.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
There's a different kind of measurement error at play here - matching error. The study is matching multiple sources of administrative data - voter data to federal immigration and Social Security records.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Much needed for the rescue operation-that handle comes in handy
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The last canoe trip this pup ever went on, right before her first of many rescues after jumping out of the boat into the lake
Bulldog in the bow of a canoe
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A journalist asked me recently what bit of labor market data about AI’s impact I found the most surprising and it’s this: the recent surge in growth of software developers, despite high rates of AI adoption and layoffs in tech
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
I have two dogs, one loves daycare and does joyful zooms when she realizes where she is going; the other dog went when she was a puppy but didn’t seem to enjoy it after she reached adulthood-she now gets her own walker/sitter who she clearly adores. You know what your dog likes.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
People do confuse this all the time. There’s actually something called the ‘big data fallacy’ which covers this - a large but unrepresentative sample (most big data) is more likely to lead you to an incorrect estimate than a smaller, well-designed survey
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Lack of US labor supply from aging + ever more restrictive immigration policy (Haitians will be leaving LF next) means job gains posted this spring were simply implausibe and indeed we got a big dose of mean reversion in July... 1/5
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