Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 6mEarlier in my career, I spent a lot of time using the latest methods to improve an imputation or forecast, only to run a race between the improved method and the simple model it replaced and find that a simple model is actually pretty hard to beat. What are others' experiences here? 150
Reposted by Erika McEntarferAndreas Bjerre-Nielsen @andbjn.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Our large-scale study of phone bans just came out in Science. We randomized phone-free classrooms for 16,000+ students across 10 institutions in Odisha, India. Students deposited phones in a box at the start of each class, for a full semester. 35933
Reposted by Erika McEntarferHeather Tubbs Cooley, PhD, RN, FAAN @heathertubbscooley.bsky.social · 8hI’m not supposed to say this because I’m faculty in a school of nursing and the shortage narrative pays my bills, but we really don’t need more nurses or possibly even nurse practitioners. We do need systems that will treat them as valuable human capital. Nurses are seen as very replaceable. 39929
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026Really not great for efforts to increase housing supply that input prices keep rising. 0124
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026Some red-hot PPI numbers this morning, not good news for how energy prices might bleed into broader inflation pressures www.bloomberg.com/news/article...bloomberg.comUS Producer Prices Rise by Most in More Than Four YearsUS producer prices rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years as higher energy costs reverberated through the US economy. 2219
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/10/2026One of the eyebrow-raising findings from the child earnings penalty literature is that a lasting penalty only accrues to women partnered with men, moms and dads in same-sex partnerships experience either a short period of earnings loss and quick recovery or no penalty at all 190
Reposted by Erika McEntarferFinancialJuice @financialjuice.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Fed's Daly: more rate hikes likely, timing still under consideration 041
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026You can see a preview of this in local markets that have experienced population declines. Housing is relatively cheap but the housing stock depreciates faster and there is litle new construction so the supply effects somewhat mute the demand effects 1100
Reposted by Erika McEntarferMike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026AI isn't in the productivity data yet. -T at Apollo Output/hour is ∼2.5% but SF Fed TFP is ∼0% and flat since the AI boom started. Capital deepening.. not innovation. 33010
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Has AI generated a boom in entrepreneurship? It would make sense that it would - AI makes it easier to go out on your own and creates demand for new business services. But Nathan Goldschlag at EIG finds no strong evidence that AI is boosting new business formation yet. eig.org/ai-and-entre...eig.orgAI and Entrepreneurship: What is Really Happening?A new EIG report triangulates across different types of data to get a sense of what has been happening to entrepreneurship over the past few years — and the extent to which AI is driving the trends. 0133
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026This image, from the forced ouster of NIH director Francis Collins, is just unbelievably gutting and enraging 1474
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026'Blockers' is out now. slate.com/culture/2026...slate.comThe Guy Behind The Big Short and Moneyball Is Back to Take On Elon Musk and DOGE. It’s a Roller Coaster.Michael Lewis’ Blockers tells the stories of good public servants driven away by the Trump administration. 1437
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026New NY Fed research finds that: (1) tariff pass-through through import prices was 1-to-1, (2) pass-through to consumer prices from increased import/producer prices was about 50%, (3) tariff impacts on inflation peaked in February. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgHow Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? - Liberty Street EconomicsA look at how much of U.S. tariffs reach consumers and how quickly, tracing tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices. 05124
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Good on Michael Lewis for giving the DOGE story the journalistic-thriller treatment it deserves. Two events that fundamentally shook my sense of this country's stability were January 6th, 2021, and the six months I spent dealing with DOGE. 315324
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026In streamed an army of cops...and, trotting after them, Nate Cavanaugh, along with more DOGE people. “They are ordering the D.C. cops around like their own private army,” said Colin. “I didn’t see that coming. I didn’t see the police taking sides.” www.wsj.com/politics/mic...wsj.comEssay | Exclusive | Michael Lewis on the Lone Security Guard Who Resisted DOGEIn an exclusive excerpt from “Blockers,” the inside story of the high-stakes D.C. standoff where security chief Colin O’Brien fought off DOGE operatives. 313339
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026“AI is identifying more billable conditions, not sicker patients“ interesting article on AI cost pressure in health care 13613
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Aldis are more common than Costco in rural areas, and rural areas have older populations than urban/suburban areas; familiarity may explain these generational differences. 121
Reposted by Erika McEntarferCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/09/2026(WSJ) - For decades, the Federal Reserve's playbook for oil shocks has been to wait them out. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that approach has reached its limit. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/livecoverage... 826075
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026So what is the cheaper alternative? Genuine question 120
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026I have a chronic issue that the AI will tell me a certain paper can be cited as evidence for a claim and I will go read the paper and find that AI incorrectly characterized the findings 2520
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Justice, at long last, for Andreas Georgiou. A brave and honorable man 1415
Reposted by Erika McEntarferGiles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12/09/2026aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so... The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.socialaleximas.substack.comWill AI soon lead to double-digit growth?Probably not. Here is why. 810335
Reposted by Erika McEntarferHansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 09/09/2026BREAKING: Trump admin proposes major #2030Census changes that would reshape voting maps, including no race & ethnicity questions and excluding non-U.S. citizens without a green card from a count that 14th Amendment says must include “whole number of persons in each state” www.npr.org/2026/09/09/n...npr.orgTrump officials propose sweeping changes to the census that would reshape voting mapsA Trump census proposal would stop asking about race and exclude millions of U.S. residents from a count that the 14th Amendment says must include the "whole number of persons in each state." 24276174
Reposted by Erika McEntarferVittoria Elliott @telliotter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026SCOOP: An anonymous census report claimed thousands of noncitizens voted. But @davidgilbert.bsky.social and I found that not only was the report based on bad data, its authors include members of a Trump-aligned think tank and a former member of DOGE. @wired.com www.wired.com/story/a-us-c...wired.comA US Census Report on Noncitizen Voting Used Bad Data to Reach Faulty ConclusionsTrump has touted a recent Census report. WIRED found grave flaws in its analysis and the process behind it, and confirmed the identity of several of its authors—among them a one-time DOGE affiliate. 11232115
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 08/09/2026What's happening here has little to do with AI and more to do with structural change in the information sector, which is shedding jobs in legacy industries like telecom, media, and - more recently - motion pictures (covid, strikes, not recovering). The sector is not a good proxy for 'tech' jobs. 0599
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Jed Kolko, former Commerce official overseeing Census and BEA, on the worrying signs of political interference at Census www.piie.com/blogs/realti...piie.comPolitical meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical systemThis summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve... 13419
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026I would say it's another very troubling sign that Commerce intends to interfere further with the statistical and scientific agencies under its purview. 07114
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026This change grants Commerce political appointees veto power over data and research releases by scientists and statisticians at NOAA, NIST, Census, and BEA. 8287186
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026They've got good former economics reporters there on the comms team 071
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Even likelier is that the final absolute size of the revision is pretty close to zero, the payroll survey just nailed it. Since ‘government got it right’ is a non-story that means we will all move on to Jackson Hole but kudos to BLS for amazing work measuring this vast and dynamic economy. 0275
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026A very small preliminary benchmark revision meaning the payroll survey did a pretty amazing job estimating job growth last year. Since the pattern for QCEW revisions is that they are revised up this may convert to a small positive revision in Feb. 15110
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Southern cooking methods as a means of destroying food-born bacteria is actually an interesting thesis. Collards are also probably very safe (and also delicious) 2444
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Now that you are worried about how things are going at Census, the answer appears to be 'not great'; nice FT piece out yesterday on planning for the 2030 Decennial www.ft.com/content/7c9c...ft.comWho counts in Trump’s America?Gillian Tett on the president’s bid to reform the 10-year census, and the explosive politics behind who gets included and who gets to decide 1163
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026John Abowd (director of research at Census during the 2020 Decennial) on LinkedIn, on the same topic: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...linkedin.comNoncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis | John AbowdMany people and reporters have asked me about this post: https://lnkd.in/eUaF3sT5 Here are my answers to the most common questions: 1. How common is it for the Census Bureau to issue a report... 1158
Reposted by Erika McEntarferSIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Treasuries in trouble? Greg Ip @wsj.com looks at signs that U.S. debt is losing its status as the world's "safe" asset. Article cites evidence in a new study from SIEPR Senior Fellow @hannolustig.bsky.social showing that investor doubts started in 2020. Gift link + study ⤵️ 352
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Amy O’Hara wrote up a longer piece on all of the red flags in the ‘Census’ report on noncitizen voting. mdi.georgetown.edu/response-to-...mdi.georgetown.eduDissecting the “Beginning Analysis” of Noncitizen Voting - Massive Data InstituteAuthor: Amy O’Hara, Director of the Massive Data Institute at the McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University Rigorous scientific research into voting in U.S. elections consistently finds ... 22910
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026"'This brief lacks any sort of measures of variance or discussion of bias,' says O'Hara, who now directs Georgetown University's Massive Data Institute." Amy led the Census division responsible for data record linkage; she knows what she's talking about here. 2485
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026"Work on the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau, and the team behind it included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump's first administration.." www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...npr.orgExperts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen votingA Trump-aligned think tank has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, NPR has learned. 713546
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026There's a different kind of measurement error at play here - matching error. The study is matching multiple sources of administrative data - voter data to federal immigration and Social Security records. 231
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Much needed for the rescue operation-that handle comes in handy 040
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026The last canoe trip this pup ever went on, right before her first of many rescues after jumping out of the boat into the lake 1242
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026A journalist asked me recently what bit of labor market data about AI’s impact I found the most surprising and it’s this: the recent surge in growth of software developers, despite high rates of AI adoption and layoffs in tech 196616
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026I have two dogs, one loves daycare and does joyful zooms when she realizes where she is going; the other dog went when she was a puppy but didn’t seem to enjoy it after she reached adulthood-she now gets her own walker/sitter who she clearly adores. You know what your dog likes. 140
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 09/08/2026People do confuse this all the time. There’s actually something called the ‘big data fallacy’ which covers this - a large but unrepresentative sample (most big data) is more likely to lead you to an incorrect estimate than a smaller, well-designed survey 010
Reposted by Erika McEntarferJulia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Lack of US labor supply from aging + ever more restrictive immigration policy (Haitians will be leaving LF next) means job gains posted this spring were simply implausibe and indeed we got a big dose of mean reversion in July... 1/5 19920