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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Construction Jobs, increasing slowly, are at an all-time high. I guess that's a good thing = more paychecks. And total hours worked are also at highest. BUT Construction Volume of work is declining. If jobs increase while volume is decreasing, work put-in-place per job is falling. = Inflation.

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MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 01/10/2026

We’re making all Meidas+ news updates completely paywall-free through the midterm elections. Quality information shouldn’t be locked away right now. This may hurt our business, but some things are more important. Spread the word and join us: meidasplus.com

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Construction Spending AUG up 0.9% from JUL but down 3.1% ytd Rsdn got a nice bump up, +1.1%. It's all renovations. Nonres Bldgs gained 0.7% Nonbldg still on track to gain 4%+/- in 2026 Last 6 months Wrhse down 9% Comm w/o Wrhse down 12% Data Centers up 45% Offc w/o DC up 2.4%

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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

"It is time to stop treating the outcome of tariff policy as a hypothetical. The experiment was run in 2001 and failed. It was re-run on a grand scale since 2017 and failed. It is not good economic policy. And in a month it will prove to be poor politics as well" 🔥 mailchi.mp/americanacti...

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

30% of Rhode Island homes heat with oil. In Maine it's 50%. There are going to be a lot of people this winter in New England that simply cannot afford to heat their homes, or at least heat to a comfortable temp. And I don't mean 72, I mean more like 60.

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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

World's highest steel prices now. Politically motivated steel plant in 2030 (Maybe) share.google/zMW8dwTGfBED...

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I heat with oil. Many New England homes heat with oil. By conserving I got my usage down between 800-900 gal/yr. Last yr was expensive, avg about 3.50/gal. Well, now it's 6.00/gal and it always goes up in Jan/Feb. That's an extra 2.50 to 3.00/gal more this yr., $2,000-$2,500 I didn't budget. ☹️

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Forget iced coffee. Do like they do in Rhode Island. Coffee milk.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

My construction spending forecast to be revised lower for data centers. finance.yahoo.com/technology/a... Oracle's Project Jupiter is just one casualty in a growing wave of blocked and delayed data center construction that threatens to destabilize the entire AI

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Scott Littlehale @slittlehale.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Fact: Residential contractors compensate workers at *below-avg rates*. A great divide in unionization %s b/t residential & nonres construction rates partly drive the res v nonres pay gap. Union rates also help drive up *non-union* nonres contractors' pay. Source: BLS NCS, unpublished estimates.

Key Findings

Residential specialty trades are below the overall private-sector average on both wages and benefits.

Wages are $3.81/hr below average.
Benefits are $4.29/hr below average.

Nonresidential specialty trades are above the overall private-sector average.

Wages are $5.13/hr above average.
Benefits are $4.46/hr above average.

The entire $17.70/hr gap between residential and nonresidential specialty trades can be viewed as:

Residential being $8.10/hr below the private-sector norm.
Nonresidential being $9.60/hr above the private-sector norm.

This framing makes the split especially clear: residential specialty construction looks like a below-average compensation segment of the labor market, whereas nonresidential specialty construction looks like an above-average compensation segment, with the largest divergence occurring in benefits.

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𝕊𝕦𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕖 𝔾𝕦𝕣𝕝 @sundaedivine.lol · 18/09/2026

A couple weeks ago I noticed a sign on the road that said "Republican puppies for sale” and then today the sign said "Democrat puppies for sale. I stopped and asked the breeder why the puppies changed parties and he said, “Well, ma’am now they have their eyes open."

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Construction inflation decreased in each of the last 3 qtrs of 2024, then it increased in each qtr of 2025 and each of the 1st 2 qtrs of 2026.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

All five INPUTS to various types of construction, in both Q1'26 and then even higher in Q2'26, have posted the highest rate of inflation growth qtr/qtr for the past 15 qtrs (with only one single qtr exception). 2026 will most certainly post the highest rate of construction inflation since 2022.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

As expected, Construction PPI inputs inflation continues to creep up as the year goes on. Earlier this year Inputs to Nonres Bldgs Q1 avg growth was 3.6%. Q2 growth is 4.3%. Thru April, PPI was +3.5% compared to Dec'25. It's now up 8.6%. Metals are up 12% to 20%. Diesel Fuel since Dec is up 100%.

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Joyce White Vance @joycewhitevance.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Earlier this week, Judd reported on a new Elon Musk scam. Musk is spending millions of dollars pushing Americans to VoteSafe, which advertises itself as a voter registration site but is actually a digital surveillance machine. Judd joins us tonight to explain: joycevance.substack.com/p/five-quest...

joycevance.substack.com

Five Questions with Judd Legum

American journalist, lawyer, and political writer

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Vance: Tariffs have generated a lot of revenues. If you keep us in power, then you will share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth. Umm, weren't the traffis ruled illegal and all $ gained through traffics needs to be refunded?

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

"Tariffs on copper have increased costs for wire by 11.4%, for switchgear by more than 4% and for capacitors that store power by more than 6%. Domestically made transformers now cost 10% more to produce than when Trump took office." Bessent "tariffs haven't caused any inflation"

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The Rhode Island two REP candidates combined got 23,000 votes. The two RI DEM candidates got 128,000 votes. The incumbent got beat handily 62-38.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

of course, then we would have no (or a lot less then we need) aluminum or lumber

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Scott Littlehale @slittlehale.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Visualization of #JobsDay stats disaggregating the construction sector. Modest 3-month avg YOY sector-wide growth was driven by two subsectors: 1) Nonresidential bldg equpmnt (electrical; plumbing; HVAC) 2) Single-family house GCs' production employees Nonresidential finishing ticked up. Others⤵️

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The gulf between construction jobs and the actual value of work put-in-place (volume of business) is widening. Since Jan'25, jobs have increased 4%. The constant$ value of business put-in place has fallen 12%.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Construction spending is down in only 5 of last 10 qtrs, and is forecast to increase in each of next 6 qtrs, BUT Constant$ spending (spending minus inflation = Constant$ volume) has declined in 8 of last 10 qtrs., a total down -11.5%. and is forecast down each of the next 6 qtrs, total -2.5%.

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Some personal news... Today I'm excited to announce the launch of the Housing Frame, a Substack where I'll be analyzing the economy through a housing lens. My debut piece is the Housing Recession is Over. Follow and subscribe here: conorsen.substack.com/p/the-housin...

conorsen.substack.com

The Housing Recession is Over

The vibes remain bad, the recovery is uneven, but recession is now behind us

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Not good news. I'm looking at Construction Spending data and my forecast for 2026 is expected down 3.2%. Residential down 5.9% and Nonres Bldgs down 5.0%. Nonbldg UP 4%. Overall, this would be the worst annual performance since 2010. Some recent revisions lowered Rsdn.

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Scott Littlehale @slittlehale.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

A TX framing worker on a KB Homes project died. My question: was that worker (1) afforded the compensation & social insurance (incl workers comp insurance!) afforded to *employees," or (2) off-the-books/misclassified as an independent contractor? My bet's on #2! Why? 1/5 www.kxan.com/top-stories/...

screenshot from news station' article accompanying the broadcast video:
"...

https://www.kxan.com/t

"KB Home is deeply saddened to confirm that a tragic accident occurred during a serious weather event at our Creekside at Estancia site yesterday, resulting in the death of an employee of one of our subcontractors. Our thoughts and prayers are with the worker's family, friends, and colleagues during this difficult time. Construction at the site was suspended immediately. A second employee of the subcontractor was injured as a result of the accident and taken to the hospital, where he is recovering. KB Home wants to thank local emergency personnel for their quick response to the incident, and we are fully cooperating with local authorities in their investigation."

The Travis County Sheriff's Office said investigators found no foul play and have handed the case over to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Representatives from OSHA said the agency has up to six months to ..."

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PLUR🧡 @plurgasm2.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Register to Vote in Texas | VoteTexas.gov share.google/bIU7lTm969XB... Please share this for the Texans! You can check and register all on the same site if they removed you! You need to do it now!

votetexas.gov

Your Guide to Voting in Texas | VoteTexas.gov

VoteTexas.gov is your go-to resource for voter registration, election dates, polling locations, and more. Get the info you need to make your vote count.

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Mike Boylan-Kolchin @mbkplus.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Fellow Texans: verify that your voter registration hasn't been suspended without your knowledge. I just double-checked mine following a link in the article; it took all of 1 minute. Make sure your voice can be heard in November.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Utterly despicable Administration

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

If I can't have it, nobody can.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

A 90,000 SF ballroom! Do you have an idea just how big that is. A football field is 300ft x 150ft = 45,000 sf. This ballroom addition is two football fields.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

The construction companies that torn down the East Wing should be barred from ever taking a gov contract again. Where's the potential abatement survey, site conditions survey, historical bldgs commision, people's response, congress approval, authorization to proceed?

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

When updating all my files this month, couldn't help but notice several government (and some private) issued inflation indices not updated or abandoned. Residential constant value home price index, Structural steel for bridges, IHS Power plant, Concrete pipe, Mortenson Nonres Bldgs, FHWA Highway

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Even if Data Center construction spending were to stall right now with no more gains for 2026 but level spending thru year-end, we would finish the year up $66bil, or up 33%.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

USB chargable coffee mug. Charge it up and keep that coffee warm bfor an hour. Not to much to ask.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Construction Spending for 2026 is forecast at $2.217 trillion, down 1.2% from 2025. Inflation ranges between 4.3% (Nonres Bldgs) to 4.8% (Infra). Rsdn Inflation is at 4.4%. All sectors actual business volume are being dragged down by inflation. 2026 Volume is forecast down 5.4%.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

PPI INPUTS Summary of Construction

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

The PPI Final Demand (actual price as built) for Nonres bldgs and contractors is 3.7%. Inputs gives us a look at material pricing only. Final Demand includes material, labor, productivity and contractors overhead and profit. Unlike mtrl inputs, most of the Final Demand increase occurred in Jun-Jul.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Construction PPI thru Jul 6.9% Inputs to Nonres Bldgs Constr 5.9% Inputs to Residential Constr 7.3% Inputs to Highway Constr A few items Jul'26 vs Dec'25 67% Diesel 21% Aluminum Shapes 20% Steel Mill Products 11.7% Lumber/Plywood 10.5% Nonferrous Wire and Cable 9.3% Steel Pipe and Tube

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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 11/08/2026

Construction has begun on hundreds of miles of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border funded by $47 billion from the President Trump’s signature policy legislation last year. Here’s what to know about the administration’s plans.

nyti.ms

See Trump’s Plan to Fill the Gaps in the Border Wall

Construction has begun on hundreds of miles of new barriers funded by $47 billion from the president’s signature policy bill last year.

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Mrs. Betty Bowers @mrsbettybowers.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

A novel—and, no doubt, fleeting—moment of self-awareness.

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Barb McQuade @barbmcquade.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I don’t agree with all Abdul El-Sayed’s views, but GOP “othering” is a disgrace. He was born in US, educated at Bloomfield Hills Andover, where he captained football team; Univ of Mich; Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar; Columbia, where he earned an MD. Debate his views, not whether he’s a “real” American.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

The Manufacturing Spending Taper Nonres spending in total is declining, in large part due to mega-spending on mnfg bldgs tapering to completion, creating large, but normal, annual declines. This may have the effect of offsetting gains in other nonres bldgs markets. edzarenski.com/2024/11/21/t...

edzarenski.com

The Manufacturing Spending Taper

11-21-24 My construction spending forecast for 2025 Nonresidential Bldgs is down 1.5%. But this decline is driven by projects ending in Manufacturing. In the last 3 yrs, there were $230bil Mnfg new…

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

A study several years back showed that near 90% of all construction firms engaging in multi-hundred million $ (or even billion $) contracts on a multi-billion $ project are not approved to be bonded for the amounts under contract. What could go wrong?

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Construction Spending for 2026, Data Centers gain +$20bil., Mnfg falls -$40bil. If we use an avg of 4000 jobs per $1 bil spending per year, then DC added 80,000 jobs while in Mnfg constr, -160,000 jobs ended. Office constr, 36,000 jobs ended. Highway constr 56,000 new jobs started.

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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Construction Spending I'm forecasting Data Centers spending will increase at a rate of 3%/mo for 8 of the 9 next months. DC will not post a decline in annual rate in the next 36 months. DC spending gains will overtake Mnfg declines in 2027.

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