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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/09/2026

Whoa. Big jump in the @fiftyplusone.news odds of Democrats taking the Senate. The left tails are starting to get fatter too.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 28/09/2026

Internal poll way too high undecided yadayada, but this is also a Trump +20 district.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/09/2026

Black are shows that I've seen most or all of. Red is my personal top 10.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/09/2026

Just a bizarre top end of the list. Parks and Rec at #50, 30 Rock as the best comedy of the 21st century at #8? Fleabag at #5? Game of Thrones at #6? Girls at #13? White Lotus at #21? Black Mirror at #26? And I loved Succession, but #4?

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 22/09/2026

I don't think that Utah is going to be a purple state any time soon, but if Salt Lake City keeps growing so fast, it could be competitive quickly. If Spencer Cox were a typical MAGA candidate, the Governor race would be real competitive this year.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 22/09/2026

New high for Democrats in the @fiftyplusone.news model. Median outcome is now 52-48 Dem Senate, but a 53-47 or better Senate is just as likely as the Republicans holding the chamber.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/09/2026

Updating my slides. This figure on the growth if solar energy will never cease to amaze me.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 17/09/2026

The Republican got 65% of the vote in this district in 2024. There are ~290 seats more more blue than Georgia 11.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 16/09/2026

Pretty big movement toward Democrats in the @fiftyplusone.news model over the last week. The Senate is now Lean Democrat.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 15/09/2026

The slope on party ID right now is crazy.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 13/09/2026

Average value of a unit of land.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 10/09/2026

Dems had a strong polling day today. Big tick up in their chances of taking the Senate, big tick down in Trump's approval.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 07/09/2026

Love this figure. I've added the House popular vote or presidential vote. You can see the turnout dynamics shift, where Democrats badly underperformed in midterms from the 1990s-2014 compared with presidential electons then the dynamic flips in 2018. Last two Gallup surveys were D+10 (dashed line)

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 07/09/2026

Here's the same data but with net Democratic party ID and a four-quarter moving average. Easily the steepest trend toward one party in the series.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 06/09/2026

2026 is sure looking a lot like 2006.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 01/09/2026

I'm very proud that UIC is the growing university, but yikes this graph.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/08/2026

Some EV math. Last night, electricity cost us about 1.5 cents per kWh. My Ioniq 5’a battery holds 84 kWh, so it cost about $1.70 to fill up. During the summer, it gets ~380 miles of range. A RAV4 gets about 35 mpg, which would cost $46 for the same range, a 27x difference. = ~900 mpg

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/08/2026

Does anyone have a cheap forklift for sale?

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 20/08/2026

I have to wade into the moderation-electability wars but it sure looks like there is a sizable penalty for the more progressive or conservative candidates in this sample. Pretty consistent with what you would expect (Vance worse than Rubio, Ossoff/Buttigieg better than Newsom better than AOC).

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 20/08/2026

I can't wait for conservative incel world to learn that every single X-Men story is woke as hell.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 19/08/2026

That is one clean special election histogram from @thedownballot.bsky.social. Way more consistent than 2018.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 18/08/2026

I can't speak for other programs like Originality AI, but I have been testing @pangram.com and have been very impressed. It so far as an error rate of zero on a variety of human/LLM-generated academic products. It even distinguishes between mixed AI/human and AI-assisted ("make this clearer") text

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 16/08/2026

These data are weighted by: demographics, recalled 2020 + 2024 vote, rurality, political interest and media trust (derived from ANES). Seems excessive to me. At some point your sample becomes unrepresentative enough that throwing a billion weights at n=2,000 can’t fix it. Get better data.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 14/08/2026

Elise Stefanik won this district 59-41 in 2024.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 06/08/2026

Ashley Hinson won this seat by 57-41.5 in 2014.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 05/08/2026

Hill won 59-41 in 2024. Note that it’s from April.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 05/08/2026

Updated dashboards with more non-prob panels.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 02/08/2026

I don’t care much about early presidential primary polling, but it’s pretty glaring to see AOC polling at just 11% when the leftist candidate is winning overwhelmingly in the same sample. She’s not some unknown upstart. Should be doing better even this early.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 01/08/2026

New Heritage staffers are “More MAGA than Trump.”

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

A smaller but still important gap has opened up over the last year between polls with live interviewers and polls conducted with address-based online probability samples.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

Added Echelon, TIPP, HarrisX non-probability panels. Look at the consistency of the y-intercept on approval.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

Some thoughts. First, if I were running a real polling aggregator, I would exclude non-probability samples entirely. This choice erases most of the weighting variation. The top line doesn't change a ton in my dashboard, but I only included two non-probability samples. Others include many more.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

Okay, now weighting methodology. Smaller but consistent differences here as well. Unlike sampling, I don't have any real opinion on the best choices. Trump/Rs do 2-3 points better if you weight for Party ID or recalled 2024 vote. Some of this variation is correlated with sampling methodology.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

But the real story are methodological differences. Let's start sampling. There's a pretty big difference in both series by methodology. Non-probability online panels are strongest for Trump/R by a large margin. On the generic ballot, phone RDD-ish polls are ~D+8 versus ~D+4 for non-prob.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/07/2026

I/Claude created a polling average tracker of high quality polls using a variety of methodologies. Ignores A/RV/LV differences. Whether you think 2026 will be a bad for cataclysmic year for Republicans depends entirely on polling. methodology. Topline: Approval 37.6%. Generic ballot at D+6.3 1/

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/07/2026

CNN poll series: Does the president have the right priorities or has he not paid enough attention to the most important problem? Trump’s overall approve hit a new low at 34%, but is down just a few points this year. Much bigger decline on priories. Voters notice that he doesn’t care about inflation

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 23/07/2026

Even on the low end, the data are super clear for undergraduate degrees. BAs make far more than less educated groups, and the BA opens the door to even higher income professional degrees. The income from a typical plumbing or carpentry job looks great when you are 24. It doesn’t scale though.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 23/07/2026

Here’s a count of workers in the trades from a building trade association. In a country of 350 million, even doubling the trades does little to replace our higher education system. The reality is that cutting off college will push the marginal student toward a low wage service job.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 07/07/2026

When candidates are named, Democrats are running 3-4 points ahead of the polling average in the marginal races (OH/AK/TX/IA/NE).

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 30/06/2026

A masked vigilante in Mexico is attacking motorcycle thieves and leaving them taped up to telephone polls. www.yahoo.com/news/world/a...

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/06/2026

My credentials: I know a thing or two about how Heritage (and CAP) have done this in the past.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/06/2026

Good news for Democrats: only 5% of Maine voters say they haven't heard of Platner's scandals. Any impact is mostly baked in and he's still ahead.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 26/06/2026

People are freaking out that Democrats might nominate El-Sayed in Michigan. But he's polling even or better than the other candidates pretty consistently.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/06/2026

Biggest difference in margins that I've seen between A/RV and LV.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 18/06/2026

First poll that I’ve seen with Dems matching Republicans in Florida.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 17/06/2026

Here is the distribution of voter fraud cases in the Heritage Foundation database. Most of the cases are either people casting inappropriate absentee ballots (a lot of these are double-voting in two different states I think) or people voting with eligibility issues.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 16/06/2026

Cannibalism actor comes back from cancellation as a conservative slop guy.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 13/06/2026

After a slow-ish 2025, Democratic small dollar fundraising (via ActBlue) is way up in 2026.

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