iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

PA vote by mail broken out by gender, compared to the same point in the past two elections.

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It's way too early to draw any conclusions from the early vote, but a few states have fairly sizable turnout so far. NJ is one, with about 100k votes cast already. Interestingly, the Dem share of votes cast is exceeding each of the recent prior elections, a good sign for Dems.

26728

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Last week I took a look at trends in Gen Z voter registration, finding that since Trump took office last January, Dems have made massive gains with young voters across the country. Now I'll update that analysis with some breakdowns by race/ethnicity.

39126

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Seeing the Emerson poll this morning that showed Trump's net approval dropping 50 pts among Gen Z since he took office made me curious about voter registration trends among those voters in key states. Starting with PA...

722176

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

In the past six days six right-aligned pollsters have begun "flooding the zone," releasing eighteen polls in eleven battleground Senate races. While they've done this before the pace and intensity of this effort is unprecedented, a reflection of their desperation. 1/

5272134

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

For those claiming fraud because Spencer Pratt did worse as the later ballots were counted, this chart is of the registered Dem share advantage over registered GOPs by each day of ballot returns.

44314

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

This is interesting - I charted out the Dem advantage among new registrants in NC, by week, going back to 2015, broken out by race/ethnicity.

1455

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Shameless personal plug: are any of my Capitol Hill/campaign/advocacy folks interviewing for interns? My daughter is finishing her freshman year at UMD, has experience with campaign and official office internships in the MD legislature (and has even testified before the MD Senate!).

0172

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

I've lagged on my intention to sporadically share data, when we get it, on recent special elections where we've seen large swings to Dems, looking under the head in an effort to get a sense of what drove these results and what they might mean for November. Back at it - IASD01.

216930

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Lincoln Square @lincolnsquare.media · 13/03/2026

Join us for "It's the Democracy, Stupid" today at 1pm ET! @eisendrath.net is joined by veteran Democratic strategist @tbonier.bsky.social to discuss data, democracy and what the midterms look like for Democrats and more. Subscribe for free to watch: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

0115

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months. Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.

281745390

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

I made this monster of a chart to show the partisan split of the early/abs vote in the TX primary by age/race/gender. You can see why Republicans must be worried about what they're seeing in the turnout data.

1319560

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics...... We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/

6365116

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races. Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.

17014

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).

829575

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.

17613

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022. The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.

07921

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year. GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November. That's not true here...

19427

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.

2366

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.

2484

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Davidson County (Nashville) early/abs vote is in, and it is solid for Behn. 85% - a strong performance for the Dem candidate. So... now we have to see how long it will take to report Election Day vote, but kudos to the election officials in TN for getting a quick release of EVAV.

49317

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Here's an interesting one - Trump won the early/abs vote in Montgomery County, TN by about 21 pts last year. Behn (the Dem) won the EVAV this year by about 3 pts. That 24 pt swing would be enough for Behn to win... the issue is...

2493

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration. These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.

35210

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?

273

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states. Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R. In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.

723156

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends. Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.

35418

Reposted by Tom Bonier

TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 16/10/2025

This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers. But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too. youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...

youtu.be

The Huge MISTAKES Democrats Have Made In The Trump Era | Chuck Todd Politics Podcast

YouTube video by The Chuck ToddCast

2156

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 11/10/2025

In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.

2028642

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...

linkedin.com

Why We Built the Media Buying Platform

In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...

0285

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 28/06/2025

I'll be on with Edwin shortly!

093

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...

hopiumchronicles.com

Dems Need To Get Serious About Partisan Voter Registration - My Conversation With Tom Bonier (And A Presentation Too)

I will be in Santa Fe, New Mexico Sunday night from 5 to 7pm MT - join us!

98520

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

open.substack.com

LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis

Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT

16013

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.

826969

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there. First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/

1122501936

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.

36213

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.

96115

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today, @magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.

21189

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

Deregulation: so people can die for cheaper eggs

15111

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

We should figure out who is in charge of this company that keeps failing at space and make sure they are never put in charge of anything to do with our government.

69728

Reposted by Tom Bonier

Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

BREAKING — The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just announced the closure of major regional offices in Philly, LA and Chicago, per email shared with me. “5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me. Full email text:

To: All SEC Employees
From: Ken Johnson, Chief Operating Officer
Date: March 3, 2025
Subject: RE: Update on LARO, PLRO and CHRO Leases

As some of you might be aware, the General Services Administration (GSA) has been involved in a process across federal agencies to review office space leases and potential options for reducing space and related costs. GSA has now decided to end all federal leases goverment-wide where GSA can do so unilaterally and where the agency is not providing direct services to the public.

As part of this decision, GSA recently informed us it has decided to teminate the building leases for the Los Angeles Regional Office (LARO) and the Philadelphia Regional Office (PLRO). GSA retains the sole authority to terminate the leases because they manage those leases on our behalf. To be clear, these lease terminations are not associated with any reorganization or reduction in force plan regarding SEC personnel, but rather apply solely to SEC space.

As part of the initiative described above, GSA also notified us they intend to terminate the lease for the Chicago Regional Office (CHRO). The SEC has responded to the Administration and pointed out that CHRO's lease terms are different iand do not allow for unilateral GSA termination without significant financial penalties. We will keep you posted as we learn more about GSA's decisions.

The SEC will be working with GSA on the process for finding new space for these offices. We understand that GSA aims to have the space exited by the end of August 2025 for PLRO and CHRO, and the end of September 2025 for LARO. It is the SEC's intent that if new office locations are not ready by the time the GSA-initiated lease terminations take effect, then the affected SEC staff will be placed on full-time telework.

We will provide more information as we learn it.

Thank you.

25366723172

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Here's the thing: when you fire a lot of people at Twitter and something breaks (ie, you make a mistake), the consequences are minimal. I can't believe that this needs to be said, but Twitter ≠ the federal government. Mistakes can cost lives.

25912

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

I'm late to sharing this, but I'm so disappointed in MSNBC's decision regarding @joyannreid.bsky.social. Joy was unafraid to call out those in power, which certainly made her some enemies, but IMO also made her indispensable. And beyond that, she is a good human. We need more of all of this.

714220

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

The wealthiest man in the world spent hundreds of millions of dollars to put Trump in power, and one of the first things he did was to starve children. You decide if that was a feature or a bug.

26637246

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

The only message we can take from the Chiefs getting shut out in the first half is clearly that God is angry at Harrison Butker.

1030326

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

So the tower was understaffed, yet our President, VP, SecDef, and Sec of Transportation faced the press and universally blamed DEI. Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department. nytimes.com/live/2025/01...

nytimes.com

Live Updates: Control Tower Staffing Was ‘Not Normal’ During Deadly Crash, F.A.A. Report Says

1017464

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

We currently do not have an FAA Administrator, because the previous one was forced out by the billionaire who got Trump elected and was given unchecked authority in return. He was forced out because he tried to fine the billionaire's space company for operating unsafely.

211102415

Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

One of the most depressing/maddening developments of the past year or two is the cycle of a tragedy happening, Republicans immediately theorizing that under-qualified people of color may be to blame, and everyone just accepts this blatant racism as a fact of life with no consequence for the racists.

914851