iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Peter Hannam @peterhannam1.bsky.social · 8h

Here’s a fuller view of September weather… by maximum temperatures, it was Australia’s third warmest September on record:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026

I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...

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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The atmospheric river chain crashing into the Iberian Peninsular in 2025/26 exceeded values projected in the highest emission scenario to emerge later this century... #climate #earth

Thing is these model departures are just starting and will further increase as mutual amplification between dynamical systems is just starting to lift off with further acceleration of warming.

Abstract:

Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers are a major driver of winter hydroclimate extremes over the Iberian Peninsula. This study evaluates whether the exceptional landfalling atmospheric rivers that affected the Iberian Peninsula between October 2025 and February 2026 already displayed characteristics expected under the early SSP5-8.5 climate response. Using high-resolution model simulations, we compared these recent events with this SSP5-8.5 transient analogue. We found that the 2025–2026 atmospheric rivers transported as much—or even more—moisture than those simulated within the SSP5-8.5 transient analogue, with increases of 10%–15% in some regions. The large-scale atmospheric circulation also favored strong moisture transport towards the Iberian Peninsula. Moisture coming from the subtropical Atlantic was 5%–20% higher than in the early SSP5-8.5 response simulation, and the resulting precipitation showed robust, meaningful increases matching or exceeding levels expected under transient high-warming conditions. These results suggest that some present-day atmospheric rivers over the Iberian Peninsula are already producing impacts similar to those expected under transient high-emission projections.

"The 2025–2026 Iberian Atmospheric Rivers Exhibited Moisture Transport Resembling the Early SSP5-8.5 Climate Response"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL123799

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Reposted by Kim Reid

Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026

The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

All else being equal even a simple increase in the mean of the temperature distribution will lead to extreme heat above a particular threshold that's more frequent, more intense, lasts longer and covers a wider area (you'll have to imagine that third dimension).

Schematic titled "warming increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme heat" which shows a temperature trace as a red line in three different climates (COLD climate, CURRENT climate and HOT climate) which only differ in that each one is warmer than the last by a constant offset. A fixed baseline and heatwave threshold are also shown as horizontal lines and these do not change. Areas that exceed the heatwave threshold are shaded pink. The pink shaded area is larger in the current climate than in the cold climate and smaller than in the hot climate. In the cold climate an annotation points to a single isolated pink-shaded heatwave and says "isolated heatwave". In the current climate an annotation points to three distinct heatwaves and says "more frequent, long heatwaves". Finally in the hot climate an annotation says "duration and frequency continue to increase" and "isolated cooler period" for there is only one short period that is not now classified as a heatwave.

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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

I wrote about a reason not to use generative AI in your writing that I haven't seen anyone talking about. Once I realized this, banning GenAI in our lab's writing became a no-brainer. Feel free to share, I think this is probably useful especially for trainees: www.carlsonlab.bio/thoughts/the...

carlsonlab.bio

The only reason you’ll ever need not to write with AI — The Carlson Lab

Over the last year, our lab has been developing a policy on AI use. To do this, we did three main things: We read a lot of academic publications and tech news. We set up an #ai channel on our la...

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Andrew Miskelly @anero.id · 16/06/2026

Fog down low and cirrus up high over eastern NSW/ACT on Tuesday.

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 09/06/2026

Interesting example of a compounding event - March 2025 in Türkiye was so warm that fruit trees flowered early. Then hailstorms and cold temperatures came in April. Fruit crops were ruined and prices doubled for months. From this paper by @regclimo.bsky.social et al: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

nature.com

Compound weather and climate events in 2025

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment - Compound weather and climate events in 2025

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Pauline Grierson @pfgblue.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

An excellent insight into encouraging students to use their own voice. I've used the gym workout example (acknowledgements to Bluesky but can't recall who it was!) that they need to flex their own writing muscles to build skills (there's no benefit if someone else lifts the weights)

theguardian.com

I knew my writing students were using AI. Their confessions led to a powerful teaching moment | Micah Nathan

The problem wasn’t just the perfectly polished, yet mediocre prose. It’s what’s lost when we surrender the struggle to translate thought into words

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Andrew Miskelly @anero.id · 04/05/2026

Series of cold fronts putting an end to the recent warmth over south east Australia.

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Spencer Dant @sdantwx.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

A wacky moment from yesterday's chase - as a long-lived tornado reintensifies, a satellite tornado develops, retrogrades toward me, and is absorbed into the larger tornado. 4.23.2026 - Braman, OK

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Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

NOAA's latest update on state of El Niño, just 3 hours old. Summary: 1. We are in neutral conditions and will likely remain that way for several months. 2. An El Niño is likely (61% chance) to emerge, but magnitude is still quite uncertain as we have not crossed spring predictability barrier.

source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Simon Hammann @simonhammann.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Don't be shy to take on a little two-week side project. These five months will be the most precious three years of your academic journey.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

One of the most famous climate scientists disagreeing with me is certainly an 'oh no' moment for any ECR. But, I stand by what I said, and ECMWF, whom many are basing these Super El Niño claims on, also called for caution: www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med... Losing it at the kangaroo tho 😆...is it me?

An article titled Super-Duper El Nino by James Hansen and co-authors with a cartoon of a grumpy kangaroo on top

Screenshot of text showing quotes from my article saying that El Nino forecasts are the least reliable in March and April

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Koreen Brennan @koreen.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

France passed a law requiring solar panels on every parking lot with more than 80 spaces. Equals 10 nuclear reactors Reduces heat island, shades cars The US -- 800 million parking spaces. Most of them are uncovered asphalt sitting in direct sunlight. Why aren't we doing this?

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I strongly believe that some of these issues would be partially solved if we could publish null results. Then, there won't be a motivation to look for scores that show the best results. Every field should have a journal of null results.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

You can set your watch to autumn headlines declaring a catastrophic El Niño or La Niña. In this article, I throw a bucket of cold water on the heated headlines and reflect on why autumn forecasts of Nino3.4 are to be read with caution. theconversation.com/why-the-phra...

theconversation.com

Why the phrase “Super El Nino” makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes

Media reports have suggested a “super” El Niño is looming. The problem is, these autumn forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

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Pedram Hassanzadeh @pedramh.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

doi.org

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Feeling humid this morning in Melbourne as a blob of 'tropical air' sits above us

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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

A large high-pressure ridge sets up shop over the Western US, generating record-breaking heat. An atmospheric river follows the path of the ridge, bringing heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Q. Should I wear shorts or a raincoat in Melbourne summer? A. Yes

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WeRateDogs @weratedogs.com · 18/02/2026

This local Wolfdog joined an Olympic ski event and triggered the finish-line camera. This is Nazgul. He snuck into a cross-country skiing sprint this morning and raced the homestretch with some competitors before being escorted home. 14/10 someone get him a medal

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CIIMAR @ciimar.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

The 2026 International Atmospheric River Conference (𝗜𝗔𝗥𝗖𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲) is coming to Porto, Portugal! 📅 19–23 October 2026 | 📍 Alfândega Congress Centre + virtual option Join the conversation on atmospheric rivers and their impact on water, weather extremes, and climate resilience.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Incredible: ~2500mm (78 inches) in 20 days - 1.5X the normal yearly rainfall in Grazalema, Spain and it’s only February. How? A 5000 mile Tropical Atmospheric River lifted by terrain in Southern Spain. H/T Nahel Belgherze #europe #flood #spain #weather

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

For those familiar w/ "ARkStorm/ARk2.0" flood scenarios for California, a comparable event has been unfolding on the Iberian Peninsula. These ridiculous rainfall accumulations, caused by a long series of extremely moist atmospheric rivers, have brought widespread severe flooding to Spain & Portugal.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

A little while ago, I collabed with the RMIT Information Integrity Hub to fact-check 5 common #climate and #energy myths. Check out the vid and their other great #misinformation resources. youtube.com/watch?v=g-q_...

youtube.com

Video 1 (5:39) - Dr Kim Reid busts five common climate myths

YouTube video by DSC Learning and Teaching

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

An intense race against time: will my code finish running before the multiday supercomputer maintenance shut down in 50min?

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

If you think it's been dry in Melbourne, you're not wrong. Melbourne (Olympic Park) has only recorded 1.6mm of rain so far this year. Not the lowest (0.3mm in 1932), but could end up in the bottom 5 Januarys.

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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Stop Press. Pooncarie (NSW) Post Office has read its manual thermometer at 9am and its maximum temperature for yesterday (Tue 27 Jan 026) was 49.7C Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW. reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Portugal and Spain are looking at tremendous precipitation from an onslaught of atmospheric rivers over the next 14-days. Flooding will certainly be a very real threat if these numbers materialize.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

GFS Integrated Water Vapour Transport for next week. The North Island of New Zealand will cop some serious rain if this model is correct.

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Dr Hannah Murray @hlmurray.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Mind bogglingly awful. It shouldn’t take a year+ to find out if you have a grant. This is careers and lives being messed with.

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Did an entire subject on bushfires in undergrad and it was drilled into us that the cool change can be the most dangerous time for this reason

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

In our Pursuit article, @lindenashcroft.bsky.social and I explore how we can balance rest and rejuvenation with staying alert and prepared during the hazardous Australian summer. What do summer holidays look like in a changing climate? pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/Wha...

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

What do summer holidays look like in a changing climate?

The Australian summer now commonly features heatwaves, floods and bushfires. University of Melbourne experts explain how we can prepare and still enjoy the break

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Kim Reid @drkimclimate.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

An active week of weather ahead for Australia with 40+C across large swathes of the country on Wednesday and the potential for a Tropical Low/Cyclone making landfall on Friday (in the GFS model).

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Another very active weather period for Pacific Coast will occur over the next 10 days, with very moist storms and a persistent (atmospheric river-associated) moisture transport corridor bringing copious rain progressively farther south into California by early next week. [Thread]

Snapshot of total cumulative 16-day precipitation prediction from ECMWF ensemble. It shows substantial accumulations along the entire Pacific Coast, heaviest from central CA northward into British Columbia. In some favored mountain regions, accumulations exceeding 10-12 inches of liquid equivalent are depicted.

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Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

What's NCAR? and 8 ways it has helped you www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

forbes.com

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