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David Munro

@dmunro.bsky.social
177 followers 69 following 97 posts

Academic Economist, Middlebury College

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Reposted by David Munro
Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
@middecon.bsky.social's colleagues Germán Reyes and Zara Contractor were featured in the Addison County Independent for their research on AI: www.addisonindependent.com/2026/06/25/r...
addisonindependent.com
Research at Middlebury reveals nuanced story about AI use | Addison Independent
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Minor rant about the AEA/J-PAL RCT Registry. (@aeajournals.bsky.social @j-pal.bsky.social). I've received pushback (and heard similar stories from others) when trying to register pre-analysis plans for experiments that don't fit neatly into a treatment/control framework. 1/
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Jim Flynn @jimflynn9.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New @nber.org WP out this week with @caitlinmyers.bsky.social and @dmunro.bsky.social ! Playing it Safe: The Effect of Abortion Restrictions on Sexual Behavior A 🧵… www.nber.org/papers/w35333
nber.org
Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 13/06/2026
Administration is stumbling towards a debacle. Millions of U.S. businesses & local govts use the threatened data to make better investment decisions. It's like gouging out our own eyes for no reason. www.npr.org/2026/06/12/n...
And some current staffers are expressing alarm about the order.

"It would not be a major overreaction to say that this is cataclysmic," says a bureau employee who asked NPR not to name them because they are not authorized to speak to the press. "From our perspective right now, if this policy stays in effect, it's the end of a lot of our data production."
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Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Two @middecon.bsky.social colleagues, @caitlinmyers.bsky.social and @dmunro.bsky.social, join formidable forces in this NBER WP. www.nber.org/papers/w35333
nber.org
Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
We are not angry enough--a whistleblower provided evidence a DOGE brat stole social sec data & sold it to a Palantir contractor. Our data is used to sell services back to the govt at taxpayer expense for big profits. That is OUR data. Instead of investigating the whisteblower is threatened 😠
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Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Scott Pelley has provided @status.news a statement blasting current CBS News management and even accusing them of having tried (and failed) to "inject falsehoods and bias" into his stories. www.status.news/p/scott-pell...
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Finished a fun short paper looking at early warning signs of recessions, focusing on unemploy. claims data. Claims often to signal downturns earlier, particularly initial claims (i.e. displacements). Project digitizes weekly claims data back to 1940s, hope others can use it! doi.org/10.1016/j.ec...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 02/04/2026
It may not be the sexiest motor, but the station wagon will always be a winner: ft.trib.al/a869HF4
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Caitlin Myers @caitlinmyers.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I'm the AI pessimist. @causalinf.bsky.social is the AI optimist. Season 5 of The Mixtape — The Odd Couple — is us doing real economics research live, on air, using Claude Code. Come for the causal inference. Stay for the existential dread. causalinf.substack.com/p/the-mixtap...
causalinf.substack.com
The Mixtape with Scott (Featuring Caitlin Myers) Season 5: Episode 1 of The Odd Couple!
It’s like The View if The View had two economists staring at a terminal.
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Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
For those in the neighborhood, @willhpyle.bsky.social will give the next talk in the 2025/26 Carol Rifelj Faculty Lecture Series on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. in Hillcrest 103. The topic is Russian Public Opinion, the War in Ukraine, and the Lingering Effects of the Soviet Collapse.
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Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Never underestimate the quest for knowledge no matter how irrelevant it may seem in the moment If I hadn’t gone to a public university, I honestly wouldn’t have ever bothered to watch a basketball game. But now? “Boxing out” is a top ten skills for boarding public transportation
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ArXiv Paperboy (Econ.GN + Econ.TH) @arxivecongnbot.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
arXiv📈🤖 AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT By Frank, Sabet, Simon et al
Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.
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Scott @scootrdud.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Here is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her ‘60 Minutes’ colleagues in full:
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
It's wild to me that the profession, macro in particular, essentially ignored Larry's role in laying the foundations for the 2008 crisis. Their dismissal of Brooksley Born's warning is also dripping with sexism, so par for the course. @akhilrao.bsky.social www.pbs.org/video/frontl...
pbs.org
FRONTLINE | "The Warning" - Preview | Season 2009 | Episode 14
Long before the meltdown, one woman tried to warn about a threat to the financial system.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Since we don't yet have new official claims data, my last (?) rogue report (I missed last week!), for week ending Nov. 1st. CC increased 20k (SA) or 7k (NSA) last week.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
The @financialtimes.com suggests US drew $900 million worth of SDRs from its (~$170 billion) account at the IMF and transferred them to Argentina so Argentina could make a scheduled debt repayment to the IMF. on.ft.com/4oBeQMm
on.ft.com
US drew $900mn from IMF account as Argentina debt payment loomed
Buenos Aires’s reserves rose by the same margin as Washington seeks to bolster Javier Milei’s government
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 06/11/2025
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Week #5 Rogue Unemployment Report, Halloween Edition 🎃 (hoping we won't have a Christmas Edition...). Data up to week ending Oct. 18th. Insured Unemployment ticked up slightly: +34k or 2.2% (NSA), +28k or 1.5% (SA)
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Week #4 Rogue Unemployment Report (compiled from state data). Insured Unemployment relatively steady (+18k or 1.2% (NSA). -6k or -0.3% (SA). (excl. CO, MA, TN, not reported yet)
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Government of the scammer, by the scammer, for the scammer
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Two amazing signs
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Week #3 Rogue Unemployment Report: Insured unemployment (Continued Claims) (excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN: not reported yet) declined by 8k (SA), so pretty steady.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
In the United States. Not another country. Happening right now.
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John Cawley @johncawley.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Three big announcements concerning new data from the AEA on the #EconJobMarket First, there are now live dashboards on AEA JOE that show the # of jobs listed on JOE each week, with comparisons to recent years. These will be updated weekly. www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/co... #EconSky 1/many
aeaweb.org
JOE Openings by Week - Pre-ASSA
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Did DOGE save us $2 trillion? “Not even close. .. Total spending excluding interest rose $220 billion, or 4%, for the entire fiscal year.” 🤡 @wsj.com www.wsj.com/economy/tari...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 07/10/2025
Trump’s tariffs won’t deliver many jobs on.ft.com/4ncOgYN | opinion
on.ft.com
Trump’s tariffs won’t deliver many jobs
Nostalgia is not a strategy: the past cannot return
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech. I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive. mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
mikekonczal.substack.com
Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential
Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
@stlouisfed.bsky.social Modest suggestion for FRED: can you add a sort by "time series length" option? When teaching I often like to show long time series. When I sort by "observation start" I often have to wade through pages of time series that start early but end in, e.g., 1948.
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Reason Policy @reasonpolicy.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
When Minneapolis dramatically reduced zoning restrictions home prices fell 16-34% and rents fell 17.5-34%. Powerful stuff. Technical details in great research below.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Let's focus on qualifications: Antoni finished grad school 5 years ago at Northern Illinois with no distinction. Dissertation: No focus on labor or data collection. Zero publications. One lifetime citation (by a former colleague). This record would not earn you a job as junior economist at BLS.
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Elizabeth Weber Handwerker @elizwebhand.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Looking for a 2 page explanation of CES Benchmark revisions? I wrote one at www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
congress.gov
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
🚨 Excited to share a new working paper with an exceptional former student of mine, Helena Gu. The paper looks at the impact of one of the largest zoning reforms in US history: the Minneapolis 2040 plan. We find significant impacts on home prices: (1/N) ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps...
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Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
This piece is very moving, and reflects how I am feeling about the Israel/Gaza calamity. Silence in the Face of Gaza's Starvation is Absolute Betrayal of Holocaust Victims By Orit Kamir Originally published in Haaretz substack.com/home/post/p-... Thanks to @deanbaker13.bsky.social for posting it.
substack.com
Column on the Responsibility of Israelis to Speak Up Against Mass Starvation in Gaza
I generally restrict my comments here to economic issues, but some things are hard to ignore.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 23/07/2025
An explosive whistle-blower report claims that the Justice Department is asking government lawyers to lie to the courts, and that this has forced career officials to chose between upholding the Constitution and pledging loyalty to the president. Listen to today's episode of "The Daily."
trib.al
A D.O.J. Whistleblower Speaks Out
In a complaint, a former Justice Department lawyer said his former colleagues were being forced to choose between the president’s agenda and their ethical obligations as attorneys.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Ah the joys of peer review. One referee: "this result is not interesting, you should remove it from the paper." Another referee: "this is the most interesting result in the paper, you should do more here." Convex combination= leave as is?
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Ethan Struby @estruby.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Canadians have been threatening our essential telecommunications infrastructure for decades
The cover of Raffi’s bananaphone album
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Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🌌 @chanda.blacksky.app · 03/07/2025
IF YOU ARE IN ONE OF THESE DISTRICTS PLEASE MAKE A CALL RIGHT NOW DOES NOT MATTER IF YOUR VOICE SHAKES CALL AND SAY YOU OPPOSE BBB Scripts here: 5calls.org
DCCC
2026 DISTRICTS IN PLAY
NICK
BEGICH
AK-AL
DAVID
SCHWEIKERT
AZ-OI
ELI
CRANE
AZ-02
JUAN
CISCOMANI
AZ-06
DAVID VALADAO
CA-22
YOUNG
KIM
CA-40
KEN
CALVERT
CA-41
GABE EVANS
CO-08
CORY MILLS
FL-07
ANNA
PAULINA LUNA
FL-13
MARIA ELVIRA
SALAZAR
FL-27
MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS
IA-OI
ASHLEY HINSON
IA-02
ZACH NUNN
1A-03
ANDY BARR
KY-06
BILL
HUIZENGA
MI-04
TOM
BARRETT
MI-07
MIKE
LAWLER
NY-17
MAX
MILLER
OH-07
MIKE TURNER
OH-10
OPEN SEAT
MI-IO
MIKE CAREY
0H-15
ANN
WAGNER
MO-02
DON BACON
NE-02
TOM
KEAN JR.
NJ-07
BRIAN
FITZPATRICK
PA-OI
RYAN
MACKENZIE
PA-07
ROB
BRESNAHAN
PA-08
SCOTT PERRY
PA-10
ANDY OGLES
TN-05
MONICA
DE LA CRUZ
TX-15
ROB
WITTMAN
VA-O1
JEN
KIGGANS
VA-02
BRYAN STEIL
WI-OI
DERRICK VAN
ORDEN
WI-03
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Erin Wolcott @drerinwolcott.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Today is my first official day as Associate Professor of Economics with tenure! Super thankful for the support from family, friends, and colleagues helping make this dream a reality.
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Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Wow. Put all in one place and . . . Wow.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Wendy Edelberg of @brookings.edu: If One Beautiful Bill passes, US will add $24 trillion to the federal debt over the next 10 years (past promises + new tax cuts). If Congress were honest, it'd be willing to raise the debt ceiling by $24 trillion, not the $4 trillion in the bill wapo.st/4kTSxiL
wapo.st
Opinion | Raise the debt ceiling by $24 trillion — or kill the bill
The GOP budget bill simultaneously requires more borrowing — and also prohibits that borrowing.
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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Everything that’s happened over the past six months has been a response to an imaginary crisis. There is no immigrant invasion. No trade crisis. No scientific or governance crisis. Just people completely high off their own supply trying to fundamentally reorder society. None of this had to happen.
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NBER @nber.org · 01/06/2025
Influenza vaccination reduces respiratory-illness doctor visits by over 25 percent in young children, from Michael L. Anderson, Carlos Dobkin, Devon Gorry, and Hung-Fu Tseng www.nber.org/papers/w33856
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 29/05/2025
The $1tn shadow bank lending boom www.ft.com/content/b7729107-afb1-4f…
ft.com
The $1tn shadow bank lending boom
‘This is a sensitive trade-off that has not always been well managed in the banking industry’
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Joshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Well I guess we won't be citing that paper anymore. Good for MIT for handling this proactively. economics.mit.edu/news/assurin...
economics.mit.edu
Assuring an accurate research record | MIT Economics
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15/05/2025
Good morning New York. While you were sleeping, this was the most-read story www.ft.com/content/9019...
Wall Street sign with American flags near the New York Stock Exchange
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
From @robinwigglesworth.ft.com: "Although the chances of the US government haphazardly defaulting on its debts is still vanishingly small, the price of credit default swaps on Treasuries has climbed markedly in recent weeks." #DebtCeiling on.ft.com/3GKIj5H #econsky
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Johanna Rickne @johannarickne.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
🚨 REPLICATION REPORT UPDATE: One year ago, a tweet by John Holbein alerted me, @ollefolke.bsky.social, and @jopieboy.bsky.social to a paper with a shocking result about Sweden’s law criminalizing the purchase of sex.🧵
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
"I'm going to govern in econometrics" is a winning campaign slogan for the ages.
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