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David Munro

@dmunro.bsky.social
179 followers 69 following 97 posts

Academic Economist, Middlebury College

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Reposted by David Munro
Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
@middecon.bsky.social's colleagues Germán Reyes and Zara Contractor were featured in the Addison County Independent for their research on AI: www.addisonindependent.com/2026/06/25/r...
addisonindependent.com
Research at Middlebury reveals nuanced story about AI use | Addison Independent
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Pre-analysis plans are valuable well beyond development and program-evaluation settings, and a larger tent could encourage registration across a wider range of experimental and survey research./end rant
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I understand the name is the "RCT Registry," but I'd love to see a broader "Economics Experiment & Trial Registry" (or similar) given this is hosted by the AEA. 3/
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Many influential economic experiments study preferences, beliefs, learning, or strategic interaction rather than program evaluation. They may involve randomization, experimental variation, multiple treatment arms, or within-subject designs, but not a conventional treatment-vs-control setup. 2/
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Minor rant about the AEA/J-PAL RCT Registry. (@aeajournals.bsky.social @j-pal.bsky.social). I've received pushback (and heard similar stories from others) when trying to register pre-analysis plans for experiments that don't fit neatly into a treatment/control framework. 1/
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Jim Flynn @jimflynn9.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New @nber.org WP out this week with @caitlinmyers.bsky.social and @dmunro.bsky.social ! Playing it Safe: The Effect of Abortion Restrictions on Sexual Behavior A 🧵… www.nber.org/papers/w35333
nber.org
Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 13/06/2026
Administration is stumbling towards a debacle. Millions of U.S. businesses & local govts use the threatened data to make better investment decisions. It's like gouging out our own eyes for no reason. www.npr.org/2026/06/12/n...
And some current staffers are expressing alarm about the order.

"It would not be a major overreaction to say that this is cataclysmic," says a bureau employee who asked NPR not to name them because they are not authorized to speak to the press. "From our perspective right now, if this policy stays in effect, it's the end of a lot of our data production."
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Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Two @middecon.bsky.social colleagues, @caitlinmyers.bsky.social and @dmunro.bsky.social, join formidable forces in this NBER WP. www.nber.org/papers/w35333
nber.org
Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Reposted by David Munro
Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
We are not angry enough--a whistleblower provided evidence a DOGE brat stole social sec data & sold it to a Palantir contractor. Our data is used to sell services back to the govt at taxpayer expense for big profits. That is OUR data. Instead of investigating the whisteblower is threatened 😠
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Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Scott Pelley has provided @status.news a statement blasting current CBS News management and even accusing them of having tried (and failed) to "inject falsehoods and bias" into his stories. www.status.news/p/scott-pell...
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Finished a fun short paper looking at early warning signs of recessions, focusing on unemploy. claims data. Claims often to signal downturns earlier, particularly initial claims (i.e. displacements). Project digitizes weekly claims data back to 1940s, hope others can use it! doi.org/10.1016/j.ec...
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Level-0s
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
I always get some surprised looks when I say in intro macro "the Fed will do everything in its power to avoid prices 'going back to where they were'" But they seem to get it after the subsequent discussion of why deflation is dangerous. An important point I wish the general public better understood.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 02/04/2026
It may not be the sexiest motor, but the station wagon will always be a winner: ft.trib.al/a869HF4
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Caitlin Myers @caitlinmyers.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I'm the AI pessimist. @causalinf.bsky.social is the AI optimist. Season 5 of The Mixtape — The Odd Couple — is us doing real economics research live, on air, using Claude Code. Come for the causal inference. Stay for the existential dread. causalinf.substack.com/p/the-mixtap...
causalinf.substack.com
The Mixtape with Scott (Featuring Caitlin Myers) Season 5: Episode 1 of The Odd Couple!
It’s like The View if The View had two economists staring at a terminal.
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Middlebury College Economics @middecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
For those in the neighborhood, @willhpyle.bsky.social will give the next talk in the 2025/26 Carol Rifelj Faculty Lecture Series on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. in Hillcrest 103. The topic is Russian Public Opinion, the War in Ukraine, and the Lingering Effects of the Soviet Collapse.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
random shower thought, but it seems like it would be feasible to use these weird redactions on like citations/excel code etc. to get a pretty good handle on what is being redacted, lol. Especially given the volume of material.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Must have been citing Epstein Zin preferences paper!
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
dude, what issss this? Why is it the Epstein files?? Some references in the biblio are redacted! lol.
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Reposted by David Munro
Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Never underestimate the quest for knowledge no matter how irrelevant it may seem in the moment If I hadn’t gone to a public university, I honestly wouldn’t have ever bothered to watch a basketball game. But now? “Boxing out” is a top ten skills for boarding public transportation
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ArXiv Paperboy (Econ.GN + Econ.TH) @arxivecongnbot.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
arXiv📈🤖 AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT By Frank, Sabet, Simon et al
Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
We added some more analysis in a revised version of the paper, and we do see some evidence of softening of investor demand. Thought you might be interested. bsky.app/profile/dmun...
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
We also add a lot of other analysis and robustness checks. E.g. some folks seemed quite worried about post George Floyd stuff (which was in the first draft). We don't really see much here in terms of crime. Minn. still looks unique house price wise relative to other "defund" the police cities, etc.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Of course, it's hard to know why investor demand weakened. Could be due to perceptions of a more elastic housing supply, and less room for capital appreciation. Could also be due to regulatory uncertainty (e.g. legal challenges to 2040 plan that occurred). But an interesting result nonetheless.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
On the demand side, we leverage a Redfin dataset that tracks the share of new purchases from "investors" (e.g. buyer had LLC in their name), and find that the share of purchases from investors was lower in Minneapolis (relative to other metros) in the post-reform period.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
On affordable housing, the 2040 plan incentivized affordable housing creation via tax incentives and financing. We see stronger affordable housing creation, notably in the most affordable category (<31% Area Median Income), relative to other cities/townships in the region.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Finished up some new revisions on this paper. Mostly bringing a more prominent role of a DiD analysis alongside the syn. control (very similar results) and more on mechanisms. Notable findings, mechanism-wise, include affordable housing creation (supply-side), and a weakening of investor demand.
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Reposted by David Munro
Scott @scootrdud.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Here is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her ‘60 Minutes’ colleagues in full:
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Ha, well then I'm extremely unhelpful!!
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
If I'm remembering correctly his work/point was highlighting this is a common thing to do (regressing on these estimates), that is inherently problematic... but I don't recall the details.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
I don't know if I have much to add here. I recall Glenn Harrison having some work of a similar flavor (recollection from one of his talks I watched) but I don't recall which specific paper that was, if any (could have just been a point he was making in passing). Sorry I'm not more helpful!
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Thanks for the update! Weird that the numbers between you and Cawley are so different. Some single postings seem to be posting for multiple position... but I would be surprised if this accounts for the difference (maybe save, e.g., central banks hiring many?) Here are two examples:
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
It's wild to me that the profession, macro in particular, essentially ignored Larry's role in laying the foundations for the 2008 crisis. Their dismissal of Brooksley Born's warning is also dripping with sexism, so par for the course. @akhilrao.bsky.social www.pbs.org/video/frontl...
pbs.org
FRONTLINE | "The Warning" - Preview | Season 2009 | Episode 14
Long before the meltdown, one woman tried to warn about a threat to the financial system.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 1.26%. Overall unemployment picture during the shutdown points towards a gradually weakening labor market. Hopefully signing off! 🫡 @josephpolitano.bsky.social @estruby.bsky.social
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Initial Claims (week ending Nov. 8th) up 12k or 5.6% (SA) and up 22k or 10% (NSA).
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Since we don't yet have new official claims data, my last (?) rogue report (I missed last week!), for week ending Nov. 1st. CC increased 20k (SA) or 7k (NSA) last week.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
The @financialtimes.com suggests US drew $900 million worth of SDRs from its (~$170 billion) account at the IMF and transferred them to Argentina so Argentina could make a scheduled debt repayment to the IMF. on.ft.com/4oBeQMm
on.ft.com
US drew $900mn from IMF account as Argentina debt payment loomed
Buenos Aires’s reserves rose by the same margin as Washington seeks to bolster Javier Milei’s government
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 06/11/2025
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
OMG, now I'm just thinking about all the future headaches this causes in terms of having missing data in a time series...
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly: 1.24 to 1.26% over the week. @josephpolitano.bsky.social
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Initial claims down slightly: 3k or 1.4% (NSA), 3k or 1.6% (SA). Thus, the rise in insured unemployment likely driven from lower job finding (people hanging out in the claims pool longer) not new layoffs.
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Week #5 Rogue Unemployment Report, Halloween Edition 🎃 (hoping we won't have a Christmas Edition...). Data up to week ending Oct. 18th. Insured Unemployment ticked up slightly: +34k or 2.2% (NSA), +28k or 1.5% (SA)
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
New this week, Insured Unemployment Rate (CC/cov. emp.) (worth noting cov. emp. is, by construction, a pretty lagging measure of employment). Stayed relatively constant week-to-week (around ~1.25%), but has been trending upwards over the past year. @josephpolitano.bsky.social @mchinn.bsky.social
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Initial Claims also pretty steady: -5k or -2.7% (NSA). -8.5k or -4% (SA).
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Week #4 Rogue Unemployment Report (compiled from state data). Insured Unemployment relatively steady (+18k or 1.2% (NSA). -6k or -0.3% (SA). (excl. CO, MA, TN, not reported yet)
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Government of the scammer, by the scammer, for the scammer
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Agreed. High interest rates, economy slowing, the growth-y edge of the economy (tech) is softening... not a new phenomenon.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Two amazing signs
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Initial claims (again, excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN), ticked up: increased 12.5K (SA), or about 6% increase, but nothing too crazy. @josephpolitano.bsky.social we're not totally in the dark about the US labor market!
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David Munro @dmunro.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Week #3 Rogue Unemployment Report: Insured unemployment (Continued Claims) (excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN: not reported yet) declined by 8k (SA), so pretty steady.
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