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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 57m

Four and a half weeks out from the election, the President is on the stump, talking about the issues Americans most care about. Just when i thought the Big Guy has lost his fastball...

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 2h

Assuming a uniform national shift from 2022, here is my estimate of what gains Democrats could make in state legislatures. Right now they take AZ, WI, MN, MI. PA Senate likely. Some others in striking distance. Vibe coding caveats apply.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 12h

The entire last decade has been an exercise in creating a different set of standards for One Special Boy. Trump can never fail, people can only disagree about his performance. It isn't that he doesn't understand anything, he has unorthodox economic stances. It's delusions framed as evenhandedness.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Even Trump, who only sees the select bad news his handlers let through, has internalized that Nov 3 is not going to go well for him. Another item in the "things you don't do if *you* think you're winning" file.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Trump won big in Texas' Rio Grande Valley in 2024 and a big part of the Texas gerrymander rides on whether these Latinos will continue to be as Republican as they were two years ago. Polling suggests we're looking at a big swing back the other direction.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

"No one can possibly defeat my high T army" i scream, right before my entire unit gets vaporized by an enemy drone.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There is criminal exposure everywhere you look in this administration, from the obvious of ICE murdering civilians in the streets, to more discrete stuff like insider trading or agencies funneling tax money into pro-Trump ads. This is what wanton corruption looks like, and the hammer must fall.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Trump's success among Latinos in 2024 caught people off guard, but the Republicans had gained ground among Latinos consistently between 2016 and 2024. The counterfactual here is that a less racist Republican would've performed even better among Hispanics. Trump's racism opened the door for the Dems.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The newest YouGov generic ballot polling has Dems up +15(!?) among likely voters. Meanwhile, Marist has Brown and Acton up +8/6 in Ohio and other polling has Nixon running -1 in Florida and Jolly up in the Gov race. Ricketts and Osborne are running even in NE. We might really be in a <D+10 world.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Trump built a coalition on the strength of irregular and low information voters and has governed in a way that alienates these people in particular (gas prices, Medicaid cuts, etc.). Midterm turnout was already going to be a problem for Rs generally, but Trump has become an albatross.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

People's ability to hallucinate a version of Trump that has never existed will never cease to amaze me. His political ability, which no one in my lived experience can replicate, is he gets people to project whatever *they* want to see onto him, evidence be damned. It's really quite something.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Crowd sourcing question: Folks, for those of you who are seeing commercials in competitive House and Senate races, what are the themes of the commercials you're seeing? Especially curious for Republicans, but in general what are the messages?

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

You know you come from a privileged position when you support shit like public executions, because insane beliefs like this convey an irrational logic that you won't end up on the business end of the guillotine. Because as we know, wanton state violence is famously non-stochastic.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

To me, the David Brooks 73 Dollar Burger Tweet Day was the moment i knew Bluesky had The Juice ™️

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"Daddy's Special Boy" is a parsimonious theory with tremendous explanatory power.

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Alex Ip 葉清霖 @alexip718.com · 25/09/2026

America cannot have a multiracial, multicultural democracy if the United States Supreme Court is allowed to continue to exist in its current form

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Many aspects of American culture are stridently anti-authoritarian, and here Trump has found little success in his great authoritarian transformation. SCOTUS aside, judges at the district court level across the ideological spectrum have rejected Trump's attempts to trample the Constitution.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I think there is solid evidence to suggest Latinos will be one of the country's most important swing constituencies over the coming decade. The bigger the group, the harder it is to find common threads to hold them together. Latinos will be one of the kingmakers in American politics moving forward.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If you have grad students working on these any of the topics included in the call for papers please encourage them to submit a proposal (2 pages!). Authors of accepted proposals will attend a symposium in NYC in April on RSF's dime.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I think coming out against the Iran War would be an electoral benefit for vulnerable Republican Senators. It's dreadfully unpopular. Yet, every Republican Senator has internalized that fealty to Trump is a part of their job, which helps explain why they aren't taking the vote maximizing position.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Softer than Charmin. Gotta keep the kids safe from the Big Scary Book.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

but if you're interested in the connection between impeachment and these periods of lawless racial backlash (including legislator caution on impeachment) i do literally have a book for you

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

People significantly underestimated just how much Trump's cabinet constrained him in his first term. He had serious people in charge of the DoD, HHS, etc. This time, we've got a Fox News host, a eugenicist crackpot, and sycophantic billionaires, so there are no restraints on his impulses.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I'm editing an issue of the The RSF Journal of the Social Sciences along with Yao Lu (Columbia Sociology) and Evan Riehl (Cornell Econ) on the theme of "The Changing College-to-Work Transition and The Rise of Precarious Graduates" Call for papers is below www.russellsage.org/publications...

russellsage.org

Request for Articles - The Changing College-to-Work Transition and The Rise of Precarious Graduates | Russell Sage Foundation

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

We're six weeks out and Trump is under 35% approval. I think it is safe to say that we're firmly in 2006 territory, and an even bigger wave than 2006 is on the table. We haven't felt the end of the fuel shock, and who knows how Trump will attempt to make himself the center of attention.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This is the longest of long shots, but if Cotton lost to someone without a wikipedia page it would be very, very funny.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

If you or someone you know is working on the economic, social, or political consequences of college graduates struggling with their post employment prospects, please consider submitting a proposal. Authors of accepted proposals will be invited to a (fully paid for) workshop in NYC this April.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

russellsage.org

Request for Articles - The Changing College-to-Work Transition and The Rise of Precarious Graduates | Russell Sage Foundation

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Virginia has a constitutional referendum on the ballot this November that will codify abortion rights in the state constitution. We are the only state in the South with meaningful abortion access. One key to changing this situation will be taking control of state legislatures and Gov mansions in Nov

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Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The problem with media bias during the Trump era is that political journalists collectively decided that is "biased" to take Trump seriously. When he says something idiotic, "neutrality" means editing it for him so it sounds better and when he says something insane, it means you must hide it.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The maddening thing is that Trump is just doing everything he campaigned on. Nothing that has happened should have come as a surprise. The entire information ecosystem was a bubble of delusion in 2024.

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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

My review essay on solidarity between people of color was accepted for publication today at Advances in Political Psychology "Solidarity between U.S. People of Color: Synthesizing Evidence, Highlighting Challenges, and Proposing Actionable Solutions" Pre-print here: eoperez.com/curriculum-v...

eoperez.com

CV & New Projects

You can download below a copy of my most recent CV: Download Here is a brief selection of recent research papers I have worked on. About one third of the scholarship I produce through the REPS Lab …

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Voters famously love counterfactuals.

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

👇🎯 Today in “neither our media nor our political system is designed to deal with a far right authoritarian party” If you want to really see this, spend an hour going back & reading the front pages & main political articles of the New York Times from Sep-Nov 2024.

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Happy to report that my next book titled Diverse and Divided: How Demographic Changes Shape our Politics will be out next year and published by Columbia University Press. In this book, i track how demographic changes (growing racial diversity, education, etc), affect American political competition

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

It's interesting that Trump has gone from inevitable to a joke in less than two years and nothing in the country has structurally changed--we haven't even had the Midterm yet. Polisci lit says presidents lose influence over the course of a their lame duck term, but this is beyond expectations.

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