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Caroline Krafft

@ckrafftc.bsky.social
11K followers 7.7K following 327 posts

Economist, Associate Prof. @ Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota Development/Labor/Education/Gender/ECD/Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa.

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Reposted by Caroline Krafft
Nomi Claire Lazar @nomiclairelazar.bsky.social · 53m
I am again reminding you that BLuesky tweets are obviously 'BLeats' 🐐 not... uh, skeets (🐦🔫wt??). Whoever started that skeet nonsense is a knave.
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 20h
Brown University’s widget shows that the energy costs of the Iran war have just passed $1,000 per household iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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MPR News @mprnews.org · 10/10/2026
After President Trump urged people to "fight back" against Somali immigrants in Minn., mosque leaders and neighbors are taking steps to protect their communities. They're renewing patrols that started during Operation Metro Surge and reminding worshipers about emergency exits and safety procedures.
mprnews.org
Mosques step up safety after Trump's comments targeting Somali Minnesotans
Clergy and some elected officials around the state are calling for additional security at mosques after President Donald Trump called on non-Somali Minnesotans to “fight back” against the Somali commu...
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POMEPS @pomeps.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
POMEPS is pleased to announce a call for proposals for POMEPS Travel – Research – Engagement (TRE) grants for 2027. The NEW deadline to apply is November 10th. For more info: pomeps.org/pomeps-trave...
pomeps.org
Call for Proposals: 2027 Travel Research Engagement Grants - Project on Middle East Political Science
The Project on Middle East Political Science announces a call for proposals for POMEPS Travel – Research – Engagement (TRE) grants for 2027. Awards of up to $3,000 will be offered to support research ...
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Todd Pugatch @toddpugatch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Today!
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NBER @nber.org · 08/10/2026
Denmark quasi-randomly assigned 12,000+ refugee children across towns. Those placed where social mobility is higher earned more as adults and had fewer convictions and teen births, from Daysal, Doyle Jr., Samandari, Simonsen, and Trandafir www.nber.org/papers/w35853
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Bill Childs @billchilds.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Just to be clear: we are fine in Minnesota. We are not being taken over, though there are more rabbits in our yard than some years. Also we still need to address creeping bellflower. But otherwise all good. Don’t need rescuing or another murderous occupation.
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Joe Soss @joesoss.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
For anyone who's interested, The Debt Collective has asked @joshpage.bsky.social and me to lead an online session of its Jubilee School on Legal Plunder and tactics for fighting the injustices of criminal legal debt, Nov 17, 8-9 pm Eastern Time. Registration: debtcollective.org/event/jubile...
debtcollective.org
Jubilee School: Legal Plunder: The Predatory Dimensions of Criminal Justice
Predatory criminal legal practices have dramatically expanded since the 1980s, extracting billions of dollars from working-class Americans every year. In this workshop, Professors Joshua Page and Joe…
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
"IPUMS International has a job opening for an Associate Data Analyst! We are looking for a technically minded person who enjoys working with data and can learn new skills and knowledge quickly." Applications due Oct 18. I work at the institute that houses IPUMS (& love it here!); ask me anything
hr.myu.umn.edu
Careers
We are looking for a technically minded person who enjoys working with data and can learn new skills and knowledge quickly. The ideal candidate is detail-oriented and motivated by task completion, knows when to ask questions, communicates progress clearly, and is eager to develop technical skills in data processing and IPUMS data.
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Bitsy Perlman @bitsyperlman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Some pictures of Minnesota being lovely for no reason
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
> @cnbc.com #Tariffs www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/i...
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Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
A few years ago I wanted to nominate a mentee for a prestigious award for young scholars. They checked with their advisors and were told: “Do not bother to apply. You are at school X. You will not get it.” The downstream effect of award concentration in Economics is that it discourages applying.
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
🆕 Paying refugees to go home: Lessons from Afghanistan’s cash-for-return experiment Today on VoxDev w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social (@princeton.edu), @packlesshepherd.bsky.social (University of Virginia) & @austinlw.bsky.social (@harrispolicy.bsky.social): voxdev.org/topic/migrat...
voxdev.org
Paying refugees to go home: Lessons from Afghanistan’s cash-for-return experiment
In 2016, the UN doubled the cash it paid Afghan refugees to leave Pakistan, and 363,000 people went home in the middle of the fighting season. New research finds that policy-induced return reduced ins...
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Finally a proper working paper for this study that produced one of the most astounding figures I've ever seen. Basically economics is different from every other field, empirically. This paper looks at the concentration of university affiliations for award winners. www.nber.org/papers/w35875
Figure 2 from the paper: institutional concentration of university affiliation at time of award correlated with institutional concentration of phd granting university. Economics is the most concentrated of any field. 
Figure 2 from the paper: institutional concentration of university affiliation at time of award correlated with institutional concentration of lifetime employment. Economics is the most concentrated of any field.
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Corinne Low @corinnelow.com · 08/10/2026
Launching new research collaborations with firms (DM me!) to replace tired narratives about women at work and replace them with real evidence, real solutions, and real change! It will also house my work on empowering the global workforce of the future. And we are hiring! For pre-docs and a post-doc!
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NBER @nber.org · 08/10/2026
A California staffing requirement leads facilities to bunch below the regulatory threshold and has little effect on staffing, from Alden Cheng and Riley League www.nber.org/papers/w35849
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Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
President Kashkari will be in conversation with Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel to kick off the 2026 Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute Research Conference this morning. Tune in live 9:40-10:20am CT: www.minneapolisfed.org/live
This image is a promotional graphic for an event hosted by the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. It features silhouettes of people facing each other, with a dialogue bubble mentioning a conversation between Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. A circular graphic encourages scanning a QR code to ask questions and provides a passcode "2026INSTITUTE.
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Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"It's crucial that people get an influenza vaccine," says Scott Hensley, a virologist at the University of Pennsylvania. "And this might be a year that people might want to get a vaccine early."
npr.org
An early flu season means it might be time to think about a flu shot
Flu season typically starts in October or November. But it looks like the flu started to pick up in September this year.
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Anna Gifty @itsafronomics.blacksky.app · 07/10/2026
lol no one talks about the white kids who don't abide by merit. The conversation is ALWAYS about the Black and Brown kids who do.
nbcnews.com
Study finds 43 percent of Harvard's white students are legacy, athletes, related to donors or staff
The number drops dramatically for black, Latino and Asian American students with less than 16 percent each coming from those categories, the study said.
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Alex Ip 葉清霖 @alexip718.com · 06/10/2026
BREAKING: For the first time in 10 months, the U.S. admitted a refugee who is not a white South African. In September, the U.S. admitted 3,386 white South Africans and two Afghans (in D.C.) In FY 2026, the U.S. has admitted a total of 16,287 white South Africans, five Afghans, and nobody else.
rpc.state.gov
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Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 05/10/2026
Interesting paper, that exploits Danish refugee dispersal policy, to estimate effect of neighborhood quality on long-run outcomes for refugee children. "Moving from a low- to a high-opportunity area [...] raises adult income rank by 3 %p and employment by 4 %p." www.nber.org/papers/w35853
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 02/10/2026
early-career academics, if you don't have a website, make yourself one. yes it's annoying but just do it it can be plain text on a white background, or google sites, or even a free Wix one with ads. nobody cares we just need to be able to look you up, quickly, bc there's like 100 other apps here
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Voter registration deadlines are SUNDAY in Alaska, Rhode Island, South Carolina. And MONDAY in: Arizona, Arkansas Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, and *Texas*. If you live in these states, verify your registration now, literally.
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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 02/10/2026
Experts say now is an ideal time to get a flu shot, before influenza starts spreading widely. It's also a good time for vulnerable people to get vaccinated against another winter risk, RSV, and to get up to date on protection against COVID-19.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm not sure who saw this coming, but so far nearly all the jobs created during the second Trump administration have gone to women.
Line chart titled "So far during Trump's second term, just 8% of all job growth has gone to men" showing change in employment by gender since January 2025. Total nonfarm employment grew by 776,000 jobs through September 2026, with women gaining 711,000 positions (92% of growth) while men added only 65,000 jobs (8% of growth). Women's employment gains accelerated sharply through 2026, reaching 711,000 by September, while men's employment growth remained flat with brief periods of decline, including a drop of 96,000 jobs in February 2026.
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David M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
“Cutting this much from the university budget will mean that some of the core functions of the university will be lost. It’s not possible to just do more with less — to work smarter, to trim around the edges. We’re going to have to do less with less.” Gift link: www.startribune.com/umn-cuts-sta...
startribune.com
Perry: What we lose if the U cuts $225 million
"Austerity doesn’t work. Instead, it creates a death spiral, where reduction in services leads to reductions in revenue, which lead to reductions in services, which leads to reduction in revenue, whic...
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Tammy Schirle 🇨🇦 @tammyschirle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Nice summary of this paper by @kevinmilligan.bsky.social (w/ Baker and Gruber) "Even after their children left preschool, mothers who had access to Quebec’s universal childcare program worked and earned more than mothers who did not." www.nber.org/digest/20261...
nber.org
Subsidized Childcare and Mothers’ Labor Outcomes in Quebec
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.
Line chart titled "10-Year Treasury Note" showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note from late 2025 through September 2026. Treasury yields surged dramatically to 5.29 percent on September 29, 2026, the highest level in the period shown. This represents a sharp 130 basis point increase from the October 2025 low of 3.96 percent and a particularly rapid 45 basis point climb over just the final month. After trading mostly between 4.00 and 4.75 percent for nearly a year, yields broke decisively above 5.00 percent in September 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in borrowing costs and market conditions.
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 29/09/2026
Huge congrats to the brilliant economist and historian Ellora Derenoncourt, one of this year's MacArthur Fellows!
Ellora Derenoncourt - 2026 MacArthur Fellow
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Lauren Dobson-Hughes @ldobsonhughes.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
This study is fascinating. Men consistently overestimated by 20+% how much their peers believed harmful masculinity norms like ‘crying is weak’ and ‘violence is ok’, and these erroneous beliefs shaped their behaviour more than their own personal beliefs blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
blogs.worldbank.org
School discussions reshape perceptions of masculinity norms. Guest Post by Ieda Matavelli
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
📖 Read the full World Bank Policy Research Working Paper here: documents.worldbank.org/en/publicati...
documents.worldbank.org
Developing a Measure of Women’s Agency in Tunisia : Machine Learning and Generative Artificial Intelligence Approaches
Women’s agency – their ability to define and act on their goals – is often the target of policies and programs, both as a means of reducing other gender inequities and as .
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Practical Guidelines for Researchers Developing contextualized agency measures doesn't require massive sample sizes. We demonstrate that a sample of 100 to 150 observations is sufficient to design robust, context-specific survey modules.
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Multi-Domain Measures Win Multi-dimensional question batteries capture women's agency far more effectively than single-dimension global standard series.
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Supervised ML Beats Generative AI Supervised ML (LASSO, VSURF, backward selection) reliably finds predictive survey items. Current GenAI performs poorly at transcript scoring & question selection—performing no better than random selection. Human expertise remains essential.
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Context is Paramount Standard agency measures don't travel well. We found minimal overlap in top survey items between Tunisia & India, plus major differences between rural & urban areas within Tunisia.
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
In our new paper w/ Leila Baghdadi, Roberta Gatti, Asif Islam, & Maia Sieverding we evaluate survey measures against qualitative benchmark scores for 387 women in Tunisia. documents.worldbank.org/en/publicati...
documents.worldbank.org
Developing a Measure of Women’s Agency in Tunisia : Machine Learning and Generative Artificial Intelligence Approaches
Women’s agency – their ability to define and act on their goals – is often the target of policies and programs, both as a means of reducing other gender inequities and as .
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Caroline Krafft @ckrafftc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Can a single survey scale accurately measure women's agency across different global contexts? Can GenAI streamline qualitative research & survey design? 🧵
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Sarah Cohodes @cohodes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Haha, I think I said the same thing as @sarahlenhoff.bsky.social but much less smoothly: "doesn't look like these bans change test scores much, but if it makes everyone's day more pleasant, let's do it!"
Ban student cellphones during school hours.
EXPERTS SAID
Little evidence of impact on test scores so far, but could improve student focus and mental health and teacher job satisfaction.
"The most recent evidence suggests the positive impacts of this aren't as high as we once thought, but I think there are academic and social benefits that are hard to quantify."
Sarah Winchell Lenhoff, Wayne State University
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Sarah Cohodes @cohodes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I love when @douglasharris9.bsky.social gets cooking on vouchers. I would say "vouchers are a special-interest carve-out for rich people."
Private school vouchers 
Make all or nearly all families eligible for taxpayer money to pay for private school or home-schooling. For example, $9,000 per student to pay for private school.
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EXPERTS SAID
Most experts described minimal academic benefits for the cost, including because many families who use vouchers are already enrolled in private school. A minority of experts were supportive, citing evidence that competition improves schools writ large.
"The main certain effect will be to substantially reduce costs for wealthy families."
Douglas Harris, Tulane University
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The British Academy @britishacademy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We invite early and mid-career researchers in humanities and social sciences to apply for the Innovation Fellowships Scheme – Route B: Policy-led (FCDO). Deadline is 18 Nov. Find out more and apply: bit.ly/3Vi5StQ
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
A six year old does not deserve to be in poverty. Full stop.⁣ ⁣ Every kid in poverty is a policy failure. But since kids don't have separate incomes, you can't help the kid without helping the household they're in. That's the whole political tension. youtu.be/gL2kxIbPitU
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
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🌈Dr. Frizzle @swilua.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
OK this description made me LAUGH go.bsky.app/JKv3BWU
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Stata @stata.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
DID when treatment doesn’t stay treated. 𝘅𝘁𝘀𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗱𝗶𝗱 in StataNow handles multivalued and switching treatments, so you can estimate event-study effects as groups move between treatment levels or exit treatment altogether. See how it works → www.stata.com/statanow/DID...
stata.com
DID with switching treatments for panel data
If you have a multivalued treatment or groups that switch in and out of treatment, traditional difference-in-differences (DID) estimators are of little use. The new xtswitchdid command handles both…
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Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA) @mesa1966.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#Employment The Department of Asian & Middle Eastern Studies invites applications for a tenure-track or tenured position in Persian/Iranian Studies, focusing on early modern and/or modern Iran. mesana.org/resources-an...
mesana.org
Middle East Studies Association
The Department of Asian & Middle Eastern Studies invites applications for a tenure-track or tenured position in Persian/Iranian Studies.
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Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 24/09/2026
The US ranks 40th out of 41 comparably wealthy nations on accessible, affordable, quality childcare. But even with the federal government stalled, some states have been showing what's possible. Our new brief from @lbilik.bsky.social looks at what a national system should learn from them:
rooseveltinstitute.org
Where States Are Innovating on Childcare: Lessons for a National Universal Childcare Policy - Roosevelt Institute
States are expanding public childcare through broader subsidies, investments in the childcare workforce, coordinated governance, capital funding, and community engagement. This brief examines Connecti...
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NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026
Open call for paper submissions: The Economics of Community Colleges conference April 6-7, 2028 in Cambridge, MA. Full information www.nber.org/economics-co...
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Sarah Andersen @sarahseeandersen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The image is of a four panel comic.
In the first panel we see Sarah, the protagonist, next to a stick figure labeled “AI”. The stick figure says, “my outputs look just like yours now.”
The second panel zooms in on Sarah’s face. Above her we see text reading “I think”.
The third panel zooms in closer on Sarah’s face. Text above her reads “you missed”.
The fourth panel shows Sarah drawing happily in a sunlit room. The text above her reads “the point”.
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