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Chris Parker

@chrisjparker.bsky.social
3.4K followers 376 following 216 posts

Former Climate Lead @thecccuk.bsky.social - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. "that uk hydrologist guy who knows about extremes" Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions my own. www.linkedin.com/in/chris-j-parker

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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Welcome news. Proud to have contributed through the CCRA4 climate framing and CCC advice on adaptation objectives. Now for delivery.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
🔥🥵🔥This summer the UK is experiencing unprecedented wildfires - many near urban areas. Following the heatwave of 2022 we showed climate change is leading to increasing fire weather in the UK. doi.org/10.1002/cli2... @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @nathanaelmelia.bsky.social @climatedann.bsky.social
doi.org
Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England
In July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ense...
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🧵 With another UK heatwave in progress it's hard to show what future heatwaves will look like using maximum temperatures alone - so here's daily maximum temperatures across a whole UK summer, side by side: 2022, the summer with the first 40°C day vs UKCP18 projections at 1.5°C of warming. 1/
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Heat waves today are already stretching us past our limits — and most people have no idea how much worse the next couple of decades will get. We're not prepared for what's coming. We urgently need better ways to communicate the scale of this risk.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 26/06/2026
Today has been another record breaking day, with a new provisional June temperature record of 37.3°C recorded at Santon Downham this afternoon
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
With UK heat extremes only getting worse, I'd bet most people get air conditioning long before they get a heat pump. There's a real opportunity to tackle heating and cooling together — but it needs the right incentives, skills, and workforce to deliver it.
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Peter Stott @stottpeter.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
We told you these heatwaves were coming but ghg emssions not yet going down (Stott et al, Nature , 2004 showing 2003 heat as regular occurrence). We're now saying West Antarctic ice sheet in imminent peril and huge irreversible sea level rise would result: would be good idea to listen this time.
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
This week marks my last at the Climate Change Committee, closing out 3.5 brilliant years. Proud to have led the climate science behind CCRA4 and the Well-Adapted UK report — work that will help shape how the UK adapts to a changing climate for years to come. Grateful for a brilliant team. 🌍
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026
The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken. Find out more in our latest news release 👇
metoffice.gov.uk
Red Extreme Heat Warning issued with June temperature records forecast to break
The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026
An exceptional heatwave is developing this week with record-breaking June temperatures highly likely, particularly for England and Wales 🌡️ Following the heat in May 2026, it would be the first time since 1911 that two consecutive months have observed record temperatures
Map of forecast temperatures across the UK on Monday 22 June 2026.

Northern Ireland / Scotland = 15-23℃
Wales / England = 24-33℃Map of forecast temperatures across the UK on Tuesday 23 June 2026.

Northern Ireland / Scotland = 16-29℃
Wales / England = 29-37℃Map of forecast temperatures across the UK on Wednesday 24 June 2026.

Northern Ireland / Scotland = 15-26℃
Wales / England = 26-39℃Map of forecast temperatures across the UK on Thursday 25 June 2026.

Northern Ireland / Scotland = 16-29℃
Wales / England = 30-39℃
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026
⚠️⚠️🔴 Red weather warning issued 🔴⚠️⚠️ Extreme heat across parts of central/southern England and Wales Wednesday 0900 - Thursday 2100 Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Successive record-breaking European heatwaves in the same summer - as we are experiencing now - are exactly what @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social shows could happen: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Worst-case European heat storylines generated using ensemble boosting - Communications Earth & Environment
Worst-case European heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave, compounding danger to ecosystems, according to analyses of worst-case Earth system model simulations.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
There is, in real world climate system, more than one path to get to a "high warming scenario." Thankfully, it doesn't look like we're going to take anything close to an RCP8.5 *emissions* trajectory. But that does not mean we're safe from an RCP8.5-like level of warming. Why?
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 25/05/2026
Today has been the hottest day in May on record with Kew Gardens provisionally reaching 34.8°C - exceeding the previous highest May temperature in the UK by a full 2 degrees Celsius🌡️ This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid summer, let alone in May📈
A map of the UK showing a temperature of 34.8 degrees Celsius, recorded in Kew Gardens, London on Monday 25 May 2026
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Doug McNeall @dougmcneall.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
“Built for a climate that no longer exists” is a good phrase www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
UK ‘built for climate that no longer exists’ and needs urgent changes to survive global heating, report warns
Landmark report calls for widespread air conditioning and says UK temperatures forecast to exceed 40C by 2050
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Vivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.
essopenarchive.org
Varying sources of uncertainty in risk-relevant hazard projections across the United States | ESS Open Archive
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.
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Vivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
But this reinforces the point @chrisjparker.bsky.social was making: sampling a sufficiently wide range of variability is most important for risk analysis.
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
gmd.copernicus.org
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Earth is warming as ther's more energy arriving than leaving driven by rising greenhouse gases & this imbalance is growing rather than shrinking as needed to limit #climate change. Our recent contributions to this in @ioppublishing.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1088/1748... doi.org/10.1088/1748...
doi.org
Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming
Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming, Allan, Richard P, Merchant, Christopher J
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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Laura Suarez-Gutierrez @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.
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Climate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅 A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon.
• 25 February: Scotland's progress in reducing emissions - our annual review of the Scottish Government's progress and assessment of the policies in place for future delivery.
• 20 May: Well-Adapted UK - a new report, five years in the making, setting out what risks the country faces, and what it can do about them. This is part of the CCC's independent assessment for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment. 
• 24 June: UK's progress in reducing emissions - our annual report to Parliament monitoring the UK Government’s progress and current policies.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
Multi-dataset comparison of global temperatures from 1850-2025, with 2025 values highlighted in a separate panel for each individual dataset. Baseline is a combination of 1850-1900 means.
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well. In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms. 🧪🧵
Time series of annual average global mean temperature 1850-2025.
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis? interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
interactive.carbonbrief.org
Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief
Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has...
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!
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Climate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives. Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇 www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
theccc.org.uk
Letter: CCC letter to Minister Hardy - advice on the UK's adaptation objectives - Climate Change Committee
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Peter Stott @stottpeter.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 08/07/2025
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
Met Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and Ireland for Thursday. Temperatures range from 16°C in northern Scotland to 30°C in central England, with most regions in the mid to high 20sMet Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK for Friday. Temperatures range from 18°C in northern Scotland to 31°C near Cardiff, with most areas in Wales and central England in the high 20sMet Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and parts of Europe for Saturday. Temperatures range from 20°C in northern Scotland to 32°C in central-southern England, with much of the UK in the mid to high 20sMet Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and parts of Europe for Sunday. Temperatures range from 18°C in northern Scotland to 31°C in southern England, with most regions in the mid to high 20s.
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe. The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins I summarise the key takeaways of our ‪@natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
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Lukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes. We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions. doi.org/10.1088/1748...
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
Graph showing the ranking for monthly global mean temperature from six data sets between March 2023 and June 2024. Rankings are shown as coloured squares. Red is warmest on record (for that month and dataset), orange is second warmest, deep yellow (a beautiful shade that I want to call cadmium yellow but it's not toxic) means a top five month and pale yellow (the colour of sun faded straw) is top ten. Nothing is outside that range. Every single warmest month in all datasets happened since July 2023.
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Joeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began. This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
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Abigail Dombey @abigaildombey.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media. FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
England & Wales Fire Severity Index maps
Map showing red blotches (exceptional risk) across the Midlands - from London heading up to Doncaster. Most of the rest of England is orange (very high risk).
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Gunnar Myhre @gunnarmy.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...
cicero.oslo.no
Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models
Climate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen.
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Gunnar Myhre @gunnarmy.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Happy to share our paper in ‪@science.org‬ 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models
Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy...
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Thibault Guinaldo @tguinaldo.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14
rdcu.be
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic
Communications Earth & Environment - The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping...
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate.
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 05/05/2025
The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zen...
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Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 13/05/2025
This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK. This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836. Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK. www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
bbc.co.uk
UK weather: Spring may become driest on record with no rain in sight
There has been a lack of rainfall in many parts of the UK so far this spring and there is little or no rain in the immediate forecast.
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Ben Caldecott @bencaldecott.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...
theccc.org.uk
​​​​The country is not prepared for climate impacts, say advisors​ - Climate Change Committee
There is now unequivocal evidence that climate change is making extreme weather in the UK more likely and…
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Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/03/2025
Looking for a new postdoc position in climate? Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates. Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project: elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com
Postdoctoral Researcher in impact attribution from extreme weather events
We seek a postdoctoral research associate (PDRA) for a 33-month position to work on the UK NERC-funded pushing the frontiers grant “Attributable impacts from extreme weather events”.
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