Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 14/07/2026Welcome news. Proud to have contributed through the CCRA4 climate framing and CCC advice on adaptation objectives. Now for delivery. 010
Reposted by Chris ParkerVikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026🔥🥵🔥This summer the UK is experiencing unprecedented wildfires - many near urban areas. Following the heatwave of 2022 we showed climate change is leading to increasing fire weather in the UK. doi.org/10.1002/cli2... @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @nathanaelmelia.bsky.social @climatedann.bsky.socialdoi.orgDetecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East EnglandIn July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ense... 053
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 10/07/2026🧵 With another UK heatwave in progress it's hard to show what future heatwaves will look like using maximum temperatures alone - so here's daily maximum temperatures across a whole UK summer, side by side: 2022, the summer with the first 40°C day vs UKCP18 projections at 1.5°C of warming. 1/ 2123
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Heat waves today are already stretching us past our limits — and most people have no idea how much worse the next couple of decades will get. We're not prepared for what's coming. We urgently need better ways to communicate the scale of this risk. 162
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 26/06/2026Today has been another record breaking day, with a new provisional June temperature record of 37.3°C recorded at Santon Downham this afternoon 25299131
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 25/06/2026With UK heat extremes only getting worse, I'd bet most people get air conditioning long before they get a heat pump. There's a real opportunity to tackle heating and cooling together — but it needs the right incentives, skills, and workforce to deliver it. 2151
Reposted by Chris ParkerPeter Stott @stottpeter.bsky.social · 22/06/2026We told you these heatwaves were coming but ghg emssions not yet going down (Stott et al, Nature , 2004 showing 2003 heat as regular occurrence). We're now saying West Antarctic ice sheet in imminent peril and huge irreversible sea level rise would result: would be good idea to listen this time. 13422
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 22/06/2026This week marks my last at the Climate Change Committee, closing out 3.5 brilliant years. Proud to have led the climate science behind CCRA4 and the Well-Adapted UK report — work that will help shape how the UK adapts to a changing climate for years to come. Grateful for a brilliant team. 🌍 110
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken. Find out more in our latest news release 👇metoffice.gov.ukRed Extreme Heat Warning issued with June temperature records forecast to breakThe Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken. 15429
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026An exceptional heatwave is developing this week with record-breaking June temperatures highly likely, particularly for England and Wales 🌡️ Following the heat in May 2026, it would be the first time since 1911 that two consecutive months have observed record temperatures 616190
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 22/06/2026⚠️⚠️🔴 Red weather warning issued 🔴⚠️⚠️ Extreme heat across parts of central/southern England and Wales Wednesday 0900 - Thursday 2100 Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️ 10155102
Reposted by Chris ParkerVikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Successive record-breaking European heatwaves in the same summer - as we are experiencing now - are exactly what @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social shows could happen: www.nature.com/articles/s43...nature.comWorst-case European heat storylines generated using ensemble boosting - Communications Earth & EnvironmentWorst-case European heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave, compounding danger to ecosystems, according to analyses of worst-case Earth system model simulations. 02114
Reposted by Chris ParkerDaniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/05/2026There is, in real world climate system, more than one path to get to a "high warming scenario." Thankfully, it doesn't look like we're going to take anything close to an RCP8.5 *emissions* trajectory. But that does not mean we're safe from an RCP8.5-like level of warming. Why? 211723
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 25/05/2026Today has been the hottest day in May on record with Kew Gardens provisionally reaching 34.8°C - exceeding the previous highest May temperature in the UK by a full 2 degrees Celsius🌡️ This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid summer, let alone in May📈 831493741
Reposted by Chris ParkerDoug McNeall @dougmcneall.bsky.social · 20/05/2026“Built for a climate that no longer exists” is a good phrase www.theguardian.com/environment/...theguardian.comUK ‘built for climate that no longer exists’ and needs urgent changes to survive global heating, report warnsLandmark report calls for widespread air conditioning and says UK temperatures forecast to exceed 40C by 2050 13110
Reposted by Chris ParkerVivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 19/05/2026We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.essopenarchive.orgVarying sources of uncertainty in risk-relevant hazard projections across the United States | ESS Open ArchiveIf you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu. 272
Reposted by Chris ParkerVivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 19/05/2026But this reinforces the point @chrisjparker.bsky.social was making: sampling a sufficiently wide range of variability is most important for risk analysis. 141
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 19/05/2026🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels 1238
Reposted by Chris ParkerBen Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...gmd.copernicus.orgThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation... 24821
Reposted by Chris ParkerRichard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Earth is warming as ther's more energy arriving than leaving driven by rising greenhouse gases & this imbalance is growing rather than shrinking as needed to limit #climate change. Our recent contributions to this in @ioppublishing.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1088/1748... doi.org/10.1088/1748...doi.orgReconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warmingReconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming, Allan, Richard P, Merchant, Christopher J 0156
Reposted by Chris ParkerErich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.comModerate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - NatureExtreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. 34821
Reposted by Chris ParkerLaura Suarez-Gutierrez @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March. 033
Reposted by Chris ParkerClimate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 02/02/2026Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅 A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon. 253
Reposted by Chris ParkerTim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 14/01/2026Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC. 69357
Reposted by Chris ParkerRobert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 19/01/2026While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well. In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms. 🧪🧵 325398
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 24/10/2025@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis? interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...interactive.carbonbrief.orgMapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon BriefAttribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has... 120
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 24/10/2025Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team! 010
Reposted by Chris ParkerClimate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 15/10/2025It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives. Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇 www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...theccc.org.ukLetter: CCC letter to Minister Hardy - advice on the UK's adaptation objectives - Climate Change Committee 13010
Reposted by Chris ParkerPeter Stott @stottpeter.bsky.social · 23/09/2025The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp... 218165
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 15/09/2025Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries? 121
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 08/07/2025Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July! 031
Reposted by Chris ParkerMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 08/07/2025🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇 37023
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 08/07/2025The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced. 142
Reposted by Chris ParkerErich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/06/2025High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe. The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post. 1147
Reposted by Chris ParkerLukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · 17/06/2025New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes. We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions. doi.org/10.1088/1748... 35822
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 28/06/2025If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric? 262
Reposted by Chris ParkerJohn Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/06/2025Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a... 53314
Reposted by Chris ParkerJoeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 19/06/2025⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began. This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1 8326191
Reposted by Chris ParkerAbigail Dombey @abigaildombey.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media. FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday. 054
Reposted by Chris ParkerGunnar Myhre @gunnarmy.bsky.social · 16/06/2025A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...cicero.oslo.noObserved trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity modelsClimate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought 23810
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 16/06/2025Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen. 120
Reposted by Chris ParkerGunnar Myhre @gunnarmy.bsky.social · 12/06/2025Happy to share our paper in @science.org 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...science.orgObserved trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity modelsClimate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy... 610334
Reposted by Chris ParkerThibault Guinaldo @tguinaldo.bsky.social · 16/04/2025🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14rdcu.beInternal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North AtlanticCommunications Earth & Environment - The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping... 318574
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate. 000
Reposted by Chris ParkerChris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 05/05/2025The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...essd.copernicus.orgIndicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influenceAbstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zen... 24618
Reposted by Chris ParkerProf Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 03/06/2025This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening 37328
Reposted by Chris ParkerEd Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 13/05/2025This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK. This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836. Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK. www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...bbc.co.ukUK weather: Spring may become driest on record with no rain in sightThere has been a lack of rainfall in many parts of the UK so far this spring and there is little or no rain in the immediate forecast. 815887
Reposted by Chris ParkerBen Caldecott @bencaldecott.bsky.social · 30/04/2025Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...theccc.org.ukThe country is not prepared for climate impacts, say advisors - Climate Change CommitteeThere is now unequivocal evidence that climate change is making extreme weather in the UK more likely and… 0156
Chris Parker @chrisjparker.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate. 1177
Reposted by Chris ParkerEd Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/03/2025Looking for a new postdoc position in climate? Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates. Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project: elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.comPostdoctoral Researcher in impact attribution from extreme weather eventsWe seek a postdoctoral research associate (PDRA) for a 33-month position to work on the UK NERC-funded pushing the frontiers grant “Attributable impacts from extreme weather events”. 48758