iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Chris Smith

chriswells95.bsky.social @chriswells95.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 27/01/2026

D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: github.com/chrisroadmap...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 15/12/2025

The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.

gmd.copernicus.org

Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0

Abstract. Global warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturin...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 10/12/2025

I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.

openknowledge.fao.org

The current status of water resources for agriculture

The 2025 report delves into the use of true cost accounting assessments of agrifood systems and identifies policy interventions aimed at transformation

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Water and Climate - VUB @hydr-vub.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris). #IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Rebecca Varney @rebeccamayvarney.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections. Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍 📩 Abstract submissions are open. 🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612

egu26.eu

Session CL3.2.7

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Inga Menke @imenke.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract) #EGU26 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 21/11/2025

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

egusphere.copernicus.org

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models

Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 07/11/2025

A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different. Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

temperature and CO2 projections from MPI-ESM1.2-LR and NorESM2-LM under three emissions scenarios to 2300

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/10/2025

Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end

GHG and CO2 emissions plumes from emissions scenarios submitted to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group III.

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏

nature.com

Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change

It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 12/10/2025

How to contribute to fair: ✅submit a pull request ✅wait 6 months ✅track me down in person and remind me to review it v2.2.3 now available at the usual places. pypi.org/project/fair anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair

anaconda.org

Fair | Anaconda.org

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 10/09/2025

If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex

egusphere.copernicus.org

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/08/2025

Now that it's public, I'm very honoured to be selected as Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5, Working Group I for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report 📚🌍 Our chapter is one hell of a team! Full author list for all three working groups: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

apps.ipcc.ch

IPCC Authors

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 12/08/2025

A deep dive into the world of simple climate models: preprint out from @arp-climate.bsky.social. we know this isn't exhaustive - we focus on the models that participated in RCMIP phases 1 and 2. There will be a phase 3, coming soon.

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 04/07/2025

We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20... Session ID #4

wcrp-cmip.org

CMIP Community Workshop 2026 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will bring together a growing, and increasingly diverse, community of Earth system scientists, partners, and stakeholders. It

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 24/06/2025

Hello world, who else is in Vienna this week?

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 23/06/2025

Please get in touch with Team @carbonbrief.org if you're in Bonn this week – @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org + @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social have just arrived

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 03/06/2025

I'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration!

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Tim Andrews @tim-andrews.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting: 🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change 🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance 🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Gregory Munday @gergmunday.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Gregory Munday @gergmunday.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳 Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9

nature.com

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 07/05/2025

To all of my friends in Oslo, I am presenting at the Joint Oslo Seminar tomorrow at UiO! It will be the full-fat version of my EGU talk: Updated IPCC emissions scenarios no longer limit warming to 1.5°C Details 👇 www.mn.uio.no/geo/english/...

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Very excited to announce that the call for abstracts for our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference is out. Join us to explore the eightfold path to manage climate risks of an overshoot world: overshootconference.org Abstract deadline: June 27.

overshootconference.org

Overshoot |

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 30/04/2025

Here's @arp-climate.bsky.social presenting on the upcoming process-based carbon cycle in FaIR at #EGU25!

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/04/2025

Is 1.5°C still within reach? Find out tomorrow (Tuesday) at #EGU25 09:15, room 0.31/32, session CL3.2.1 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org

Abstract EGU25-11441

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Abigail Swann, PhD @ecoclimatelab.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...

wrfseattle.org

Postdoctoral Fellowships - Washington Research Foundation

Fellowship Details Fellowships include three years of salary support for the postdoc at an eligible research institution in Washington state. The salary for the first year is $80,000, increasing to […...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/04/2025

Some of the WorldTrans crew at EGU25 with Axel's poster 👏

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 24/04/2025

awesome study, and fair is all over it (cheers for the shout out @ccallahan45.bsky.social!)

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Gianandrea Mannarini @gmannarini.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

🎡 ✨🚢 Next week, at EGU-2025, I will be co-chairing a session on shipping-related emissions. The session will feature contributions on a range of topics, including emission inventories, radiative impacts, in-situ measurements, weather routing, and agentic AI. More at 👉 lnkd.in/dyYwiN-v @cjsmith.be

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 20/04/2025

Starting to think I might be the only person left on planet Earth who still believes that Hunga Tonga is (and continues to be) a net positive climate forcer. Should probably write a paper

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Hi Bluesky! 👋 I'll get the ball rolling by sharing a paper I contributed to and has recently been published in GMD: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/.... We took a look at carbon and nitrogen data from CMIP6 climate models and found some significant mass imbalances in the reported data.

gmd.copernicus.org

Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data

Abstract. Reliable, robust, and consistent data are essential foundations for analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we consider the data from multiple Earth system models (ESMs) participating in t...

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 31/03/2025

Scenarios Forum 2025: abstract submission deadline extended until 7 April scenariosforum.org/call-for-abs...

scenariosforum.org

Call for Abstracts | Scenarios Forum 2025

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 27/03/2025

Future climate scenarios don't include actual potential future volcanic eruptions. In a paper led by May Chim, we fixed that. The summary is that including volcanoes increases the uncertainty in climate projections in the near term (think a 4th colour in Hawkins & Sutton) doi.org/10.1038/s432...

doi.org

Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty - Communications Earth & Environment

While volcanic forcing uncertainty is typically ignored in climate projections, it can represent up to 49% of the total climate uncertainty and systematically exceed internal variability uncertainty, ...

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Reposted by Chris Smith

Paul Price @swimsure.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Very good. To note, our 2019 @autofac.bsky.social et al. paper explored EPC fair share Paris-aligned carbon debt framing for Ireland, concluding "we suggest that this methodology, and its CO2 debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions." doi.org/10.1007/s110...

Journal paper link for:
"Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget"
Barry McMullin, Paul Price, Michael B. Jones, Alwynne H. McGeever.
in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. July 2019.

Abstract
We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO2) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO2 per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO2 emissions of over − 11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO2 mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of up to a maximum of − 8.3% per year (high ambition)... Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO2 debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative negative CO2 emission technologies to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO2 debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 25/03/2025

This is behind a paywall :( but a critical reminder that climate change is a cause of increased energy demand (particularly for cooling), an effect that most climate scenarios do not include www.ft.com/content/4d4f...

ft.com

Climate change drives surge in global energy demand

IEA says record-high temperatures in 2024 account for half of increased emissions from energy

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