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Cavan Bonner

@cavanvbonner.bsky.social
571 followers 410 following 13 posts

Doctoral student researching personality development at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Self-regulation, adversity, and identity. www.cavanbonner.com

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Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Amanda J. Wright @ajwright.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Since our paper on the Changing How I Live Life (CHILL) Study is now out in Psychological Science (doi.org/10.1177/0956...), here's a LONG overdue post on the intervention work we've been doing the past few years! Have you ever wanted to change one of your personality traits?
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Over the past two years, I4R partnered with Psychological Science (@psychscience.bsky.social) on a large reproducibility project. 67 independent teams reproduced 64 articles published in 2024–2025, about 44% of eligible papers. Paper: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10... Here's what we learned 🧵
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Andrea Howard @drandreahoward.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New paper from me, out soon in Behavior Research Methods: I'm a lil bit obsessed with good online recruitment and the result is this side-quest paper that made use of data we had collected that recruited people online in three ways (met them on Zoom, validated their email, and Prolific). 🧵>>
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Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵
Two-panel figure. Panel a is a flow diagram tracking 1,611 empirical psychology articles from publication year (545 in 2015, 552 in 2020, 514 in 2025) to repository-link type: 785 link an OSF project, 85 link another platform, and 741 link no repository. Of those with an OSF link, download counts were retrieved for 670 and not retrieved for 115. Panel b is a line chart of the share of empirical papers linking OSF across 2015, 2020 and 2025. The overall rate, shown as a dashed black line, rises from 9% to 57% to 82%. All four journals rise steeply and end close together: Psychological Science 92%, JESP 89%, JML 83%, Cognition 76%, with Psychological Science highest throughout.Three-panel figure. Panel a: ridgeline plot of downloads per file by material type on a log scale, with the percentage never downloaded labelled for each — archive 16% of 545 files, documents 20% of 2,970, code 12% of 3,471, other 17% of 1,646, data 21% of 10,051, media 35% of 2,120, images 35% of 4,102. Most files cluster between 1 and 10 downloads, with long right tails past 100. Panel b: ridgeline plot of downloads per paper by journal, log scale, with dashed median lines; Psychological Science is highest, then JESP, JML and Cognition. Panel c: stacked bars showing, for documents, data and code separately, the share of papers by download band (0, 1–10, 11–100, more than 100) in 2015, 2020 and 2025. The share exceeding 100 downloads falls sharply over time in all three types, from roughly two-thirds in 2015 to a quarter or less in 2025, as the 1–10 band grows.Four-panel figure. Panel a: statistical languages detected among 333 papers with retrievable code — R 88%, SPSS 12%, Stata 4%, SAS 1%. Panel b: code red flags among those 333 papers — 34% hard-code an absolute path, 40% reference a missing file — above documentation among 672 OSF-linked papers — 21% have a README, 30% are documented by README, description or wiki. Panel c: among 562 Elsevier papers with no repository link, 44% (245) host at least one journal supplementary file but only 14% (77) host data, code or an archive. Panel d: composition of those 448 hosted files — documents 52%, data 21%, media 9%, other 7%, archive 6%, code 3%, images 1%. The code panels are green, the journal-supplement panels blue.Coefficient plot (download predictors)

Dot-and-whisker plot of three standardised predictors of OSF download volume, each with a 95% confidence interval. Repository size (number of files) has the largest effect at about 0.76, citations about 0.38, and altmetric attention about 0.12. All three intervals sit entirely above zero, so each predicts more downloads, with repository size roughly twice the effect of citations and six times that of attention. X-axis: standardised effect, −0.2 to 1.0.
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The Association for Research in Personality @arpposts.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
ARP 2027 will be held June 24–26, 2027 at the Hotel Orrington in Evanston, IL. We’re excited to share our new conference logo, designed by Keely Dugan. Program Co-Chairs: Emily Willroth & Dulce W. Westberg Local Logistics Chair: Lizz Dworak More details coming soon: www.personality-arp.org
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Nate Phillips @nphillips36.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Happy to share our latest paper, "Exploring the Lower-Order Structure of Trait Disinhibition," which was just accepted for publication at Journal of Personality Disorders. Here is a link to the preprint: osf.io/preprints/ps... (1/5)
osf.io
OSF
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Josh Grubbs @joshuagrubbsphd.com · 09/04/2026
This week in Social/Developmental was about generational differences, or as I referred to it: “ @bwroberts.bsky.social and friends keep bludgeoning the zombie horse that won’t die”
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Michael Inzlicht @minzlicht.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Qualitative coding 3,183 open-ended responses by hand would take 80+ hours. With an LLM-assisted workflow, Gino Carmona-Díaz and colleagues in Colombia did it in 10. ICC = .824. Full tutorial, prompts, and code are open access. link.springer.com/article/10.3...
link.springer.com
An AI-powered research assistant in the lab: A practical guide for text analysis through iterative collaboration with LLMs - Behavior Research Methods
Analyzing texts such as open-ended responses, headlines, or social media posts is a time- and labor-intensive process highly susceptible to bias. However, large language models (LLMs) are promising to...
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 12/02/2026
Once you start thinking about implausibly large effect sizes, you can't stop spotting them around you or wondering how others aren't doing so. Harkin et al.'s (2016) meta analysis has 740+ citations, but it reports Cohen d values as large as 14. 17 cases of d>4. psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Eric Hehman @erichehman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
New paper on planned missingness. Recently been liking the approach of planned missingness in a survey -> FIML to estimate constructs. psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
psycnet.apa.org
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Noam Ross @noamross.net · 02/02/2026
NSF GRFP applicants (and mentors): Was your application Returned Without Review and deemed ineligible despite fitting in the allowed topics? 1) Write NSF 2) Write your Congressperson 3) CC us at grfp@grant-witness.us so we can compile + follow up Details and template at grant-witness.us/grfp-letter
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Replying to @bwroberts.bsky.social on cross-lagged panel models open.substack.com/pub/drewhalb...
open.substack.com
Replying to Brent on cross lagged panel models
Last week, Brent Roberts blogged on “The Inconceivability of the CLPM and RI-CLPM”.
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
The Personality Interest Group Including Espresso journal club (PIG-IE) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign now has a public reading schedule: pig-ie-reading-vote.lovable.app/schedule. 1/
pig-ie-reading-vote.lovable.app
PIG-IE Reading List
The Personality Interest Group—Including Espresso Reading List
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
A bit of a Festivus inspired post about CLPMs and RI-CLPMs: floggingpvalues.blog/2026/01/20/t...
floggingpvalues.blog
The Inconceivability of the CLPM and RI-CLPM
Written by Brent Roberts and not ChatGTP. Really* The existence of an observational scientist can be a frustrating affair. Relegated to second class citizen status due to interest in phenomena that…
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 15/01/2026
I started reading up on the whole "loneliness pandemic" narrative because this seems like a literature where the age-period-cohort problem may be relevant (or maybe it isn't?). Here's data from Australia (HILDA), average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" (SD of ca. 1.8).>
Average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" plotted over time
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Katie Corker @katiecorker.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
I will be curious to see the public reception of this paper, which is in production at AMPPS (I was the AE). This is the early draft before revision after review: osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io
OSF
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
These openscience.nl grants are wonderful. Lavaan is a stand out in quality and impact. Open software supports so much research in academia and industry, but exists in some unincentivized gray zone. At the same time, so much software is poorly documented and tested. Fix with recognition and support
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Chris Ferguson @cjferguson1111.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Today I note how, after Florida implemented their #cellphoneban in schools, Florida's national standardized testing scores dropped. We need to work harder to improve schools by improving schools, not by banning technology. www.tallahassee.com/story/opinio...
tallahassee.com
Florida’s cellphone ban hasn’t reversed testing score trends | Opinion
Teens have been trying to tell us the real problem: The problem with schools is schools.
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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨 We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 04/12/2025
Despite Prepublication Peer Review being a core part of science, training materials for it are sparse. This open source guide is very valuable for ECRs! ecr-reviewers.gitlab.io/guide/
ecr-reviewers.gitlab.io
ECR Reviewers Platform
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Jordan Axt @jordanaxt.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
New paper in press at JPSP! An adversarial collaboration focusing on a large-scale test of how strongly implicit racial attitudes predict discriminatory behavior. Pre-print here: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Amy Orben @orbenamy.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
📣 Digital Research Community! The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include. Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com
Adolescent Health Survey - Digital Media
Expert guidance shaping digital media questions in upcoming Adolescent Health Study.
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Jennifer Tackett @jnfrltackett.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Y'all. N>3,800. !!!!!!! Goodness gracious.
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Had a great day yesterday with the first annual Midwestern Personality Meeting held in our own Champaign/Urbana. H/T to @cavanvbonner.bsky.social, Muchen Xi, and Derek Simon for organizing. @chops310.bsky.social @rcfraley.bsky.social @jaime.phd @jessiesun.bsky.social @joshuajackson.bsky.social
A bunch of academics posing on the stairs of the UIUC psychology building
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Youyou Tu's work on anti-malarial compounds that saved millions of lives (w/Nobel+Lasker recognition) wins the low citation/huge impact cell. The original paper has 87 citations as of today: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11721477/ Hopefully she can get to 100. What for huge citations and moderate impact?
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 07/11/2025
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
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Michael Inzlicht @minzlicht.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
People are lazy--except when they're watching other people work hard. My student Emily Zohar just published her first first-authored paper, and it reveals something surprising about effort and social norms. /1 osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
"only about 5% of the variance in personality can be predicted from digital footprints, and personality‐tailored messages show negligible effects on behavior... When design and evaluation flaws are controlled, the combined end‐to‐end effectiveness of psychological targeting approaches zero."
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The (In)Effectiveness of Psychological Targeting: A Meta‐Analytic Review
The use of psychological targeting—employing machine learning to predict consumer personality from digital footprints and subsequently tailoring persuasive messages—has emerged as a controversial yet...
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Lukas Neville @lukasneville.com · 31/10/2025
To be honest? Thank god. Because if advertisers can target on personality, this will be what it looks like (from 'Careless People')
"In April 2017, a confidential document is leaked that reveals Facebook is offering advertisers the opportunity to target thirteen-to-seventeen-year-olds across its platforms, including Instagram, during moments of psychological vulnerability when they feel “worthless,” “insecure,” “stressed,” “defeated,” “anxious,” “stupid,” “useless,” and “like a failure.” Or to target them when they’re worried about their bodies and thinking of losing weight. Basically, when a teen is in a fragile emotional state."
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014? A question that made us blog again: Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014?* floggingpvalues.blog/2025/10/22/h...
floggingpvalues.blog
Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014?*
Brent W. RobertsA.J. WrightLena RoemerCavan Bonner Recently Burn-Murdoch reported in the Financial Times (FT) that since 2014 conscientiousness was in a “free fall” in younger p…
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Benedek Kurdi @benedek.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Preprint led by Salvador Vargas (on the job market!), with Chadly Stern, on stereotypes linking race & social class. We find a mean-level White–rich/Black–poor stereotype; the stereotype is strongest among third-group participants; and likely explained by social sampling: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 15/10/2025
Major win for our field: finally a large, replicable effect.
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
The GSS asked the same people about their childhood income rank three different times. 56% changed their answer, even though what was trying to be measured couldn’t change! We dig into this in a new article at @socialindicators.bsky.social. 

 doi.org/10.1007/s112... 🧵👇 (1/5)
doi.org
Growing up Different(ly than Last Time We Asked): Social Status and Changing Reports of Childhood Income Rank - Social Indicators Research
How we remember our past can be shaped by the realities of our present. This study examines how changes to present circumstances influence retrospective reports of family income rank at age 16. While retrospective survey data can be used to assess the long-term effects of childhood conditions, present-day circumstances may “anchor” memories, causing shifts in how individuals recall and report past experiences. Using panel data from the 2006–2014 General Social Surveys (8,602 observations from 2,883 individuals in the United States), we analyze how changes in objective and subjective indicators of current social status—income, financial satisfaction, and perceived income relative to others—are associated with changes in reports of childhood income rank, and how this varies by sex and race/ethnicity. Fixed-effects models reveal no significant association between changes in income and in childhood income rank. However, changes in subjective measures of social status show contrasting effects, as increases in current financial satisfaction are associated with decreases in childhood income rank, but increases in current perceived relative income are associated with increases in childhood income rank. We argue these opposing effects follow from theories of anchoring in recall bias. We further find these effects are stronger among males but are consistent across racial/ethnic groups. This demographic heterogeneity suggests that recall bias is not evenly distributed across the population and has important implications for how different groups perceive their own pasts. Our findings further highlight the malleability of retrospective perceptions and their sensitivity to current social conditions, offering methodological insights into survey reliability and recall bias.
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Dr. David Miller 🏳️‍🌈 @davidimiller.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
📣 Calling 2nd-year grad students and their mentors: You just abruptly lost the ability to apply for the NSF grad research fellowship. Join ~900 others (and growing!) in signing @omfishient.bsky.social's petition to reverse that. [Or reshare this petition if you're not directly impacted]
laurenkuehne.github.io
Petition to NSF to Restore Eligibility for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program Competition
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W. Joel Schneider @w-joel-schneider.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Now on CRAN, ggdiagram is a #ggplot2 extension that draws diagrams programmatically in #Rstats. Allows for precise control in how objects, labels, and equations are placed in relation to each other. wjschne.github.io/ggdiagram/ar...
An arrow with a LaTeX equationTrigonometric functions and a unit circleA bivariate change model with structured residualsA hierarchical model of cognitive abilities
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Katie Corker @katiecorker.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
🧠🧠🧠 PsyArXiv needs you! Please sign up to join our moderator team. First cohort is getting trained on next Monday, with more trainings to come. Easy way to give back to this crucial community resource. Students, postdocs, faculty, all welcome - come one and all!
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Candice Odgers @candiceodgers.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Please, I beg everyone panicking about “kids these days” to just display the full scale on the y-axis of their (not so) terrifying charts. Oh wait, maybe that story would not sell 🤔 mikemales.substack.com/p/how-to-go-...
mikemales.substack.com
How to go viral with dire-sounding – but phony – “statistical trends”
Those bent on creating anti-internet panics keep rigging their presentations.
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Cavan Bonner @cavanvbonner.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Do you need to suffer in order to build character? No: in a sample of 682 youth, about 80% of the youth who increased in effortful control or emotional stability (>/= 1/5th of a SD) were not exposed to high levels of (observer-rated) adversity.
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Paper alert by @cavanvbonner.bsky.social looking at adversity and growth in self-regulatory dispositions. The tl;dr--no, adversity does not lead to growth in either self-reported or parent observed measures of effortful control or emotional stability. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zz0z1... 1/
dropbox.com
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 06/06/2025
Now officially out with nice formatting and all 🥳 "Thinking clearly about age, period, and cohort effects" -- a gentle introduction to the age-period-cohort problem and how to "solve" it through various types of assumptions. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Paul Bogdan @pbogdan.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
🚨New paper!🚨 Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵 Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
Figure 1 of the paper
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Marcelo Rinesi @marcelorinesi.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Recommend both this and @dingdingpeng.the100.ci 's osf.io/preprints/ps... (which I had already read) whatever field you're working on. This is something critical to e.g. even the most bread-and-butter cases of longitudinal customer behavior analysis.
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Cavan Bonner @cavanvbonner.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
If you're interested in seeing how identification assumptions can change the results from Age-Period-Cohort models of personality trait data, then check out our new pre-print led by @roemerle.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io
OSF
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Mitch Prinstein @mitchprinstein.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
So excited! A donor has made The Portable Mentor totally and completely FREE for anyone!!!!!! No royalties, no sign up, just download any/all of the 30 chapters of professional development advice!!! HOORAY!!!!! Equal access for everyone!!!! Check out the ToC! www.cambridge.org/core/books/p...
cambridge.org
The Portable Mentor
Cambridge Core - Psychiatry - The Portable Mentor
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Aidan Campbell @aidanvcampbell.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Does effort make life more meaningful? Was Sisyphus living the dream? In our new paper (now accepted in Cognition!), across 6 studies with nearly 3,000 participants, we found that more effortful tasks feel more meaningful 🧵
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Olivia Kirtley @oliviajkirtley.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
The @esmrepository.bsky.social blog is back! In our first post of 2025, I look back at 2024 for the ESM Item Repository and give some sneak peeks about where we're going this year: esmitemrepositoryinfo.com/blog-posts#O... #OpenScience #Measurement #ExperienceSamplingMethod
esmitemrepositoryinfo.com
Blog posts | ESM Item Repository
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
@baswerdlow.bsky.social and a few others expressed an interest in seeing the grad personality course we will run this spring. Here it is for your perusal and for your comments and recommendations. I'm sure I've missed papers--please recommend them. The doc is open: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Psychology 541 Personality Psychology and Behavioral Dynamics Spring 2025_mirror
Psychology 541 Personality Psychology and Behavioral Dynamics Spring 2025 Personality Psychology and Behavior Dynamics Psychology 541 Spring 2025 Location: Room 815, Psychology Time: W...
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ERROR @error.reviews · 10/01/2025
Excited to announce our second report of 2025! Fernbach et al. (2019) "Extreme opponents of genetically modified foods know the least but think they know the most". Based on the review by R Chris Fraley, we find Minor Errors which do not affect core conclusions. error.reviews/reviews/fern...
error.reviews
Fernbach et al. (2019)
ERROR is a bug bounty program for science to systematically detect and report errors in academic publications
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Gabrielle N. Pfund @gabriellepfund.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
What are questions that y’all ask participants at final follow up of a long study process (e.g., EMA, daily diary) to learn about their experiences / to bring forward to your future approaches to your research?
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