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Brad Jones

@bradjones.bsky.social
1.4K followers 891 following 459 posts

Author of Colorado's Political Landscape (www.co-political-landscape.org). Senior Research Director, YouGov; Formerly Meta; Even more formerly Pew Research Center

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Reposted by Brad Jones
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 21h
The 2024 AAPOR Task Force on polling accuracy collected a really thorough set of polls and checked them for legitimacy. See Figure 2.1.1 on page 16. The light lines are polling bias-levels toward Democrats. The solid lines are the levels of absolute/random error. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#copolitics watchers, what are your predictions for the November elections? I registered my predictions: www.co-political-landscape.org/2026-electio... Apart from being generally bullish on Democrats' chances, I don't think there's anything too crazy here, but I'm interested to hear your thoughts
co-political-landscape.org
2026 Election predictions (part 1)
Democrats are riding a blue wave nationally, and Colorado will be no different.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026
Hey, ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson here. I’m taking over the account to tell you about my new story. For months, I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company's "responsible gaming" safeguards. Spoiler alert: They made me a VIP — and I lost $10K. Here's how it all went down. 🧵
Selfie taken by ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson, a man wearing a backwards baseball cap and an orange T-shirt.
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Yesterday we showed how important primary turnout can be on a national level. But there's interesting things going on at the regional level, too. Most notably, in the core of the South, Democrats *outvoted Republicans* for the first time in decades in the primaries! (thread)
Total primary midterm votes in the core of the South from 1918 to 2022 showing a recent Democratic surge. States include VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, and TX.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
counterpoint: it's actually good to have a systematic way of understanding what and how Americans think about politics and society outside of the periodic and limited datapoints provided by election results
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Kip Williams sort of @kipwilliams.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
interviewer: What's this part here where there's just one set of footprints in the sand? job: Oh, that's where God had killed everybody but me.
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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 21/09/2026
This viral screenshot crops off the footer specifying this is a poll of *Democrats*, not all Americans. If you share a screenshot of a poll chart of table, include the entire graphic. Cutting off credit lines in particular is pernicious and common.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/09/2026
Updating my slides. This figure on the growth if solar energy will never cease to amaze me.
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Reposted by Brad Jones
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The difference between, say, the opioid epidemic and shoving gambling apps in front of everyone is that no-one has plausible deniability about the effects of gambling. It will absolutely ruin lives and families. They may as well be promoting cigarettes. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/b...
nytimes.com
How DraftKings Uses A.I. to Target the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose
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Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter @pollcat.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...
pewresearch.org
Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past Vote
This report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Hey survey researchers of bluesky, hit me with your favorite attention checks/other in-survey quality measures. I've got a rough typology: 1) Instructions embedded in the stem 2) Plainly true / false statements (or extremely unlikely answers) 3) Logical consistency between two or more items 4) OEs
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Hey survey researchers of bluesky, hit me with your favorite attention checks/other in-survey quality measures. I've got a rough typology: 1) Instructions embedded in the stem 2) Plainly true / false statements (or extremely unlikely answers) 3) Logical consistency between two or more items 4) OEs
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In 1990, Coloradoans overwhelmingly voted to shoot themselves in their collective foot by supporting a term limits plan. We've now got more than 25 years of data on how this inadvisable plan has worked out, and the answer is: not well. www.co-political-landscape.org/what-colorad... #copolitics
co-political-landscape.org
What Colorado Lost to Term Limits
Colorado has lost hundreds of years of legislative experience to its misguided term limit amendment.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Really interesting stuff on left/right perceptions among regular people.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
We did it folks! Thanks to everyone who stopped by.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
There's a fire sale going on at the YouGov #APSA booth. Everything. Must. Go. Stickers, notebooks, fidget... things. Come and get them while supplies last. (also, I'm happy to talk survey methodology or whatever else you have on your mind!)
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Swag has arrived at the #APSA YouGov booth! Come and get as many YouGov notebooks as you can cram into your carry-on! We're in the 500 aisle
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David M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
WRITE FOR LOCAL PAPERS!!!!
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I've got a really heavy bag full of YouGov swag en route to #APSA ... but it won't be there until tomorrow morning. Be sure to stop by our booth (which has its own traveling story) again tomorrow to grab some of this stuff and make sure one of my colleagues doesn't have to haul any of it home.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I'm glad to have my work published in the @coloradosun.com this morning. The piece discusses the rise of online gambling in Colorado and a big hole in our capacity to understand the harms that might be done by gambling. coloradosun.com/2026/09/03/o...
coloradosun.com
Opinion: Colorado has a $30 million-a-month table tennis problem
As gambling increases in Colorado, online companies must be more forthcoming about who is betting and what that might mean for gambling harms.
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Robert Simmon @rsimmon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I am having a particularly frustrating week, so here’s one of the best things I’ve ever done. The eruption of Sarychev Peak in the Aleutian Islands, seen by the crew of the space station. www.nasa.gov/image-articl...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/09/2026
This (from Tom Wood) suggests more than just the typical thermostatic backlash is happening right now. In sixteen months, Trump and Republicans have turned the GOP’s largest party ID advantage this century into a tie for its biggest deficit
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
A long ago friend in grad school set some Wendell Berry poems to choral music. A lot of wisdom for our artificial age. open.spotify.com/album/3NwP8m...
open.spotify.com
Celebrating Wendell Berry in Music - Album by Andrew Maxfield | Spotify
Andrew Maxfield · album · 2017 · 20 songs
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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Rest in peace to the inimitable Wendell Berry
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
It is astounding how much green energy has been added across many US states since 2001: SD: 8.7x increase IA: 11.5x UT: 13.8x ND: 14.3x OK: 14.8x WY: 15.7x CO: 18.9x IN: 40.4x NM: 101.2x
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
It is astounding how much green energy has been added across many US states since 2001: SD: 8.7x increase IA: 11.5x UT: 13.8x ND: 14.3x OK: 14.8x WY: 15.7x CO: 18.9x IN: 40.4x NM: 101.2x
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I took a look at some electricity data, and the transformation of the CO energy sector is pretty amazing. Since 2001, Colorado went from ~80% being generated by coal to over 50% from green sources. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-gr... #copolitics
Notes: Each line shows the share of Colorado's electricity production that comes from that source (annual averages). The five sources represented in the graphic account for over 99% of electricity production in Colorado during this period. The 2026 data include estimates through June. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration "Net Generation by State by Type of Producer by Energy Source" report (available from https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/).
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'll be in Boston next week for APSA. YouGov will be represented in the exhibit hall. I'd love to meet up with folks there. Come find us in the exhibit hall or send me a message.
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Reposted by Brad Jones
Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter @pollcat.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Bogus or fraudulent respondents constitute one of the most urgent problems in online opt-in polling. This new report by my colleague Andrew Mercer looks at three methods to identify bogus cases but finds no surefire solution www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...
pewresearch.org
No Easy Fix for Bogus Respondents in Online Opt-In Polls
A new study examining online opt-in polling finds that while removing bogus respondents generally improves data quality, no single method reliably solves the problem.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The business model of spam fundraising depends on hooking a group of elderly donors who give at a disturbing frequency, summing to sizable amounts. Most of them don't appear especially wealthy. I've compiled a handful of these cases. There are thousands of cases like these in the FEC data. 🧵
A data graphic detailing recurring political donations by a 79-year-old Kansas resident charged 45,331 times since 2018 for a total of $153,856. The top timeline chart shows daily donation frequency from November 2019 through December 2020, highlighting a sharp increase leading up to the 2020 election that peaked at 352 charges in a single day. The bottom horizontal bar chart lists the top 12 recipient committees out of 485 total—led by the Congressional Black Caucus PAC ($7,521 across 2,250 charges), NDTC, and Stop Republicans—noting that the 10 largest recipients represent only 24% of all contributions, with the remainder dispersed across hundreds of PACs, party committees, and candidates.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The Democratic Party has let a consulting industry exploit elderly donors in its name, wreck its reputation and finances in the process, and walk away rich whether the party wins or loses. When a mirror is held up, the instinct is to break the glass rather than look. On why the press looks away:
data4democracy.substack.com
The Bulwark Killed an Investigation into Political Fundraising Spam After Its Publisher Took the Consultants’ Side
This is a story about the Democratic Party captured by its consultants, and about what happens when the pro-democracy press is asked to say so.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
It’s a new @adambonica.bsky.social joint! data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-bulwar...
data4democracy.substack.com
The Bulwark Killed an Investigation into Political Fundraising Spam After Its Publisher Took the Consultants’ Side
This is a story about the Democratic Party captured by its consultants, and about what happens when the pro-democracy press is asked to say so.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New analysis from me about fundraising tactics among Colorado Democrats. Building on Bonica's recent analysis, I look at how the troubling fundraising methods he documented at the national level are playing out in Colorado. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-ho... #copolitics
A bar chart showing the overlap between spam PAC donors and contributors to Colorado Democratic candidates. A red square highlights the candidates from the fourth district.

Each bar shows the share of each candidate's reported individual donations that also gave to a spam PAC (as identified by Bonica) between 2023 and 2025. For example, between 2023 and 2025, 84% of Ike McCorkle's individual contributions came from donors who had also contributed to one of 145 "spam PACs" that use high-pressure tactics to solicit donations. 

Source: Replication archive for "Hook and Squeeze" (https://github.com/abonica/spam_fundraising_replication_analysis).
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New analysis from me about fundraising tactics among Colorado Democrats. Building on Bonica's recent analysis, I look at how the troubling fundraising methods he documented at the national level are playing out in Colorado. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-ho... #copolitics
A bar chart showing the overlap between spam PAC donors and contributors to Colorado Democratic candidates. A red square highlights the candidates from the fourth district.

Each bar shows the share of each candidate's reported individual donations that also gave to a spam PAC (as identified by Bonica) between 2023 and 2025. For example, between 2023 and 2025, 84% of Ike McCorkle's individual contributions came from donors who had also contributed to one of 145 "spam PACs" that use high-pressure tactics to solicit donations. 

Source: Replication archive for "Hook and Squeeze" (https://github.com/abonica/spam_fundraising_replication_analysis).
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Really interesting survey from @ipsosus.bsky.social on Americans' attitudes about corruption. tl;dr - they don't like it I was struck by the finding that nearly half of Republicans say Trump's business interests are impacting the decisions he makes as president www.ipsos.com/sites/defaul...
An image of a topline and crosstab for a recent question in an Ipsos poll about whether or not Trump's decisions as president are impacting his decisions. 

69% of Americans say Trump's business interests are impacting the decisions he makes as president (this includes 90% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans).

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-08/Reuters%20Ipsos%20August%202026%20Poll%20Topline%20Full.pdf
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I recently finished Lauren Groff's haunting novel, The Vaster Wilds. It isn’t always an easy read, but it is beautifully written and has images and scenes that I won't soon forget.
An image of Lauren Groff's The Vaster Wilds
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Is this why they've been taking out the bike lanes? My bike commute was one of the best parts about living in DC
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Very cool essay from @pewresearch.org on the increasing share of AI "authored" web pages www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
pewresearch.org
How Much of the Internet Is Written With AI?
In a random sample of 10,000 webpages collected in July 2026, one-in-ten show signs of being written or substantially edited by AI.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Really interesting follow-up to Bonica's excellent piece digging into the shady world of "scam PACs" and why it wasn't published in the NYT (or, later, the Bulwark).
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Reposted by Brad Jones
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
@electdemocrats.bsky.social and @dscc.bsky.social, this is all so shamefully predatory. @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social and the party must abandon these fundraising tactics. substack.com/@thecolorlin...
substack.com
Hakeem Jefferson (@thecolorline)
Incredible, must-read piece from @Adam Bonica on how Democratic committees and consultants built a fundraising machine that runs on a captive pool of elderly donors. An 85-year-old retiree in Oxford, ...
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Must-read piece from @adambonica.bsky.social on how Democratic committees and consultants built a fundraising machine that runs on a captive pool of elderly donors. Bonica discusses that and more in this piece a bunch of lawyers for these committees didn’t want you to read. Incredible work, Adam!
data4democracy.substack.com
Hook and Squeeze
How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.
data4democracy.substack.com
Hook and Squeeze
How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Spotted on a walk in my weird little town: a pepper taped to a rock just off the sidewalk
Some kind of pepper that seems to be affixed to a rock with electrical tape... sort of like that banana duct taped to the wall? It seems as if kids these days have too much time on their hands
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I was glad to be cited in @mikelasusa.bsky.social 's newsletter this morning about gambling in Colorado www.theblanketnews.com/p/how-to-tac...
theblanketnews.com
How to tackle problem gambling in Colorado
Plus: Statewide fire department struggles, and more
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Being young enough to have living grandparents is a big flex for a senate candidate
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Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Being young enough to have living grandparents is a big flex for a senate candidate
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Sam Ulmschneider @samulmschneider.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Normally I just appreciatively read @jamellebouie.net 's columns-sharable video content just isn't my bag. But this is a very, very, very trenchant piece of commentary that captures a lot of how I increasingly understand the disjunction between the commentary environment and on-the-ground politics.
youtube.com
The pundits have completely lost the plot
YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026
So what the hell is going on with primary polling?? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-12...
gelliottmorris.com
Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average
And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026
Counterpoint: Polls underestimated Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota about as much as they overestimated Hong in Wisconsin
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Barry Burden @bcburden.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
“Prediction” markets
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