Reposted by Brad JonesJonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 21hThe 2024 AAPOR Task Force on polling accuracy collected a really thorough set of polls and checked them for legitimacy. See Figure 2.1.1 on page 16. The light lines are polling bias-levels toward Democrats. The solid lines are the levels of absolute/random error. aapor.org/wp-content/u... 1167
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 30/09/2026#copolitics watchers, what are your predictions for the November elections? I registered my predictions: www.co-political-landscape.org/2026-electio... Apart from being generally bullish on Democrats' chances, I don't think there's anything too crazy here, but I'm interested to hear your thoughtsco-political-landscape.org2026 Election predictions (part 1)Democrats are riding a blue wave nationally, and Colorado will be no different. 011
Reposted by Brad JonesProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026Hey, ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson here. I’m taking over the account to tell you about my new story. For months, I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company's "responsible gaming" safeguards. Spoiler alert: They made me a VIP — and I lost $10K. Here's how it all went down. 🧵 19595953539
Reposted by Brad JonesDaniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Yesterday we showed how important primary turnout can be on a national level. But there's interesting things going on at the regional level, too. Most notably, in the core of the South, Democrats *outvoted Republicans* for the first time in decades in the primaries! (thread) 434299
Reposted by Brad JonesAriel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026counterpoint: it's actually good to have a systematic way of understanding what and how Americans think about politics and society outside of the periodic and limited datapoints provided by election results 717317
Reposted by Brad JonesKip Williams sort of @kipwilliams.bsky.social · 22/09/2026interviewer: What's this part here where there's just one set of footprints in the sand? job: Oh, that's where God had killed everybody but me. 21726
Reposted by Brad JonesDavid H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 21/09/2026This viral screenshot crops off the footer specifying this is a poll of *Democrats*, not all Americans. If you share a screenshot of a poll chart of table, include the entire graphic. Cutting off credit lines in particular is pernicious and common. 0264
Reposted by Brad JonesE.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/09/2026Updating my slides. This figure on the growth if solar energy will never cease to amaze me. 2254
Reposted by Brad JonesDon Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 20/09/2026The difference between, say, the opioid epidemic and shoving gambling apps in front of everyone is that no-one has plausible deniability about the effects of gambling. It will absolutely ruin lives and families. They may as well be promoting cigarettes. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/b...nytimes.comHow DraftKings Uses A.I. to Target the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose 9607108
Reposted by Brad JonesPollcat, AKA Scott Keeter @pollcat.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...pewresearch.orgWeighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past VoteThis report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations. 21413
Reposted by Brad JonesBrad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Hey survey researchers of bluesky, hit me with your favorite attention checks/other in-survey quality measures. I've got a rough typology: 1) Instructions embedded in the stem 2) Plainly true / false statements (or extremely unlikely answers) 3) Logical consistency between two or more items 4) OEs 233
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Hey survey researchers of bluesky, hit me with your favorite attention checks/other in-survey quality measures. I've got a rough typology: 1) Instructions embedded in the stem 2) Plainly true / false statements (or extremely unlikely answers) 3) Logical consistency between two or more items 4) OEs 233
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 10/09/2026In 1990, Coloradoans overwhelmingly voted to shoot themselves in their collective foot by supporting a term limits plan. We've now got more than 25 years of data on how this inadvisable plan has worked out, and the answer is: not well. www.co-political-landscape.org/what-colorad... #copoliticsco-political-landscape.orgWhat Colorado Lost to Term LimitsColorado has lost hundreds of years of legislative experience to its misguided term limit amendment. 101
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Really interesting stuff on left/right perceptions among regular people. 020
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 05/09/2026We did it folks! Thanks to everyone who stopped by. 030
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 05/09/2026There's a fire sale going on at the YouGov #APSA booth. Everything. Must. Go. Stickers, notebooks, fidget... things. Come and get them while supplies last. (also, I'm happy to talk survey methodology or whatever else you have on your mind!) 0143
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Swag has arrived at the #APSA YouGov booth! Come and get as many YouGov notebooks as you can cram into your carry-on! We're in the 500 aisle 161
Reposted by Brad JonesDavid M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 03/09/2026WRITE FOR LOCAL PAPERS!!!! 0235
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 03/09/2026I've got a really heavy bag full of YouGov swag en route to #APSA ... but it won't be there until tomorrow morning. Be sure to stop by our booth (which has its own traveling story) again tomorrow to grab some of this stuff and make sure one of my colleagues doesn't have to haul any of it home. 060
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 03/09/2026I'm glad to have my work published in the @coloradosun.com this morning. The piece discusses the rise of online gambling in Colorado and a big hole in our capacity to understand the harms that might be done by gambling. coloradosun.com/2026/09/03/o...coloradosun.comOpinion: Colorado has a $30 million-a-month table tennis problemAs gambling increases in Colorado, online companies must be more forthcoming about who is betting and what that might mean for gambling harms. 162
Reposted by Brad JonesRobert Simmon @rsimmon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026I am having a particularly frustrating week, so here’s one of the best things I’ve ever done. The eruption of Sarychev Peak in the Aleutian Islands, seen by the crew of the space station. www.nasa.gov/image-articl... 10860781505
Reposted by Brad JonesG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/09/2026This (from Tom Wood) suggests more than just the typical thermostatic backlash is happening right now. In sixteen months, Trump and Republicans have turned the GOP’s largest party ID advantage this century into a tie for its biggest deficit 301111320
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 01/09/2026A long ago friend in grad school set some Wendell Berry poems to choral music. A lot of wisdom for our artificial age. open.spotify.com/album/3NwP8m...open.spotify.comCelebrating Wendell Berry in Music - Album by Andrew Maxfield | SpotifyAndrew Maxfield · album · 2017 · 20 songs 051
Reposted by Brad JonesKevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Rest in peace to the inimitable Wendell Berry 13812190
Reposted by Brad JonesBrad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026It is astounding how much green energy has been added across many US states since 2001: SD: 8.7x increase IA: 11.5x UT: 13.8x ND: 14.3x OK: 14.8x WY: 15.7x CO: 18.9x IN: 40.4x NM: 101.2x 101
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026It is astounding how much green energy has been added across many US states since 2001: SD: 8.7x increase IA: 11.5x UT: 13.8x ND: 14.3x OK: 14.8x WY: 15.7x CO: 18.9x IN: 40.4x NM: 101.2x 101
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 31/08/2026I took a look at some electricity data, and the transformation of the CO energy sector is pretty amazing. Since 2001, Colorado went from ~80% being generated by coal to over 50% from green sources. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-gr... #copolitics 010
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 27/08/2026I'll be in Boston next week for APSA. YouGov will be represented in the exhibit hall. I'd love to meet up with folks there. Come find us in the exhibit hall or send me a message. 020
Reposted by Brad JonesPollcat, AKA Scott Keeter @pollcat.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Bogus or fraudulent respondents constitute one of the most urgent problems in online opt-in polling. This new report by my colleague Andrew Mercer looks at three methods to identify bogus cases but finds no surefire solution www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...pewresearch.orgNo Easy Fix for Bogus Respondents in Online Opt-In PollsA new study examining online opt-in polling finds that while removing bogus respondents generally improves data quality, no single method reliably solves the problem. 0134
Reposted by Brad JonesAdam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27/08/2026The business model of spam fundraising depends on hooking a group of elderly donors who give at a disturbing frequency, summing to sizable amounts. Most of them don't appear especially wealthy. I've compiled a handful of these cases. There are thousands of cases like these in the FEC data. 🧵 1217760
Reposted by Brad JonesAdam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 26/08/2026The Democratic Party has let a consulting industry exploit elderly donors in its name, wreck its reputation and finances in the process, and walk away rich whether the party wins or loses. When a mirror is held up, the instinct is to break the glass rather than look. On why the press looks away:data4democracy.substack.comThe Bulwark Killed an Investigation into Political Fundraising Spam After Its Publisher Took the Consultants’ SideThis is a story about the Democratic Party captured by its consultants, and about what happens when the pro-democracy press is asked to say so. 642206764
Reposted by Brad JonesJake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 26/08/2026It’s a new @adambonica.bsky.social joint! data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-bulwar...data4democracy.substack.comThe Bulwark Killed an Investigation into Political Fundraising Spam After Its Publisher Took the Consultants’ SideThis is a story about the Democratic Party captured by its consultants, and about what happens when the pro-democracy press is asked to say so. 27828
Reposted by Brad JonesBrad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 25/08/2026New analysis from me about fundraising tactics among Colorado Democrats. Building on Bonica's recent analysis, I look at how the troubling fundraising methods he documented at the national level are playing out in Colorado. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-ho... #copolitics 165
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 25/08/2026New analysis from me about fundraising tactics among Colorado Democrats. Building on Bonica's recent analysis, I look at how the troubling fundraising methods he documented at the national level are playing out in Colorado. www.co-political-landscape.org/colorados-ho... #copolitics 165
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Really interesting survey from @ipsosus.bsky.social on Americans' attitudes about corruption. tl;dr - they don't like it I was struck by the finding that nearly half of Republicans say Trump's business interests are impacting the decisions he makes as president www.ipsos.com/sites/defaul... 042
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 23/08/2026I recently finished Lauren Groff's haunting novel, The Vaster Wilds. It isn’t always an easy read, but it is beautifully written and has images and scenes that I won't soon forget. 010
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Is this why they've been taking out the bike lanes? My bike commute was one of the best parts about living in DC 000
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Very cool essay from @pewresearch.org on the increasing share of AI "authored" web pages www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...pewresearch.orgHow Much of the Internet Is Written With AI?In a random sample of 10,000 webpages collected in July 2026, one-in-ten show signs of being written or substantially edited by AI. 020
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Really interesting follow-up to Bonica's excellent piece digging into the shady world of "scam PACs" and why it wasn't published in the NYT (or, later, the Bulwark). 000
Reposted by Brad JonesHakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 16/08/2026@electdemocrats.bsky.social and @dscc.bsky.social, this is all so shamefully predatory. @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social and the party must abandon these fundraising tactics. substack.com/@thecolorlin...substack.comHakeem Jefferson (@thecolorline)Incredible, must-read piece from @Adam Bonica on how Democratic committees and consultants built a fundraising machine that runs on a captive pool of elderly donors. An 85-year-old retiree in Oxford, ... 0319
Reposted by Brad JonesHakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Must-read piece from @adambonica.bsky.social on how Democratic committees and consultants built a fundraising machine that runs on a captive pool of elderly donors. Bonica discusses that and more in this piece a bunch of lawyers for these committees didn’t want you to read. Incredible work, Adam!data4democracy.substack.comHook and SqueezeHow Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations. 215367
Reposted by Brad JonesAdam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.data4democracy.substack.comHook and SqueezeHow Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations. 17745321584
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Spotted on a walk in my weird little town: a pepper taped to a rock just off the sidewalk 000
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 14/08/2026I was glad to be cited in @mikelasusa.bsky.social 's newsletter this morning about gambling in Colorado www.theblanketnews.com/p/how-to-tac...theblanketnews.comHow to tackle problem gambling in ColoradoPlus: Statewide fire department struggles, and more 120
Reposted by Brad JonesBrad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Being young enough to have living grandparents is a big flex for a senate candidate 051
Brad Jones @bradjones.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Being young enough to have living grandparents is a big flex for a senate candidate 051
Reposted by Brad JonesSam Ulmschneider @samulmschneider.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Normally I just appreciatively read @jamellebouie.net 's columns-sharable video content just isn't my bag. But this is a very, very, very trenchant piece of commentary that captures a lot of how I increasingly understand the disjunction between the commentary environment and on-the-ground politics.youtube.comThe pundits have completely lost the plotYouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie 7729241018
Reposted by Brad JonesG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026So what the hell is going on with primary polling?? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-12...gelliottmorris.comPrimary election polls miss by 13 points on averageAnd they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time 1113236
Reposted by Brad JonesG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026Counterpoint: Polls underestimated Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota about as much as they overestimated Hong in Wisconsin 26753112