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Ashwin Kumar

@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social
751 followers 163 following 117 posts

Professor of Social Policy, Policy Evaluation Research Unit, @ManMetUni.bsky.social. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market, tax/benefit modelling, microsimulation. Photography: space, stillness and form

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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 7h
Re the debate on the cliff edge where tax-free childcare is lost at £100k leading to people keeping their income below this amount, it’s obvious that such cliff edges are bad as it skews decisions about work – no-one should be worse off if their earnings increase. /1 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 8h
My experience is early years settings assign a key worker to each child, track progress against the Early Years Foundation Stage framework & discuss with parents how they're supporting their development. Restricting access for lower income families seems a recipe for exacerbating future inequalities
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Sunrise over the Mersey
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John Bull @garius.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My teacher brother has just informed me that his primary school kids now refer to anything shit or old fashioned as "Brexit". Which has made my morning.
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Der Spiegel writing in 2018 about how Man City got round the UEFA Financial Fair Play charges www.spiegel.de/internationa...
spiegel.de
Financial Fair Play, Manchester City and PSG: Pact with the Sheikhs
Five years ago, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play, a set of rules designed to level the economic playing field in European football. But during his tenure as UEFA general secretary, Gianni Infantino...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Been wondering whether Man City paid the right tax when giving money to Mancini via an off-book 'consultancy' contract? Here's Dan Neidle's investigation into that issue
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Sunset at the Albert Dock, Liverpool
Sunset at the Albert Dock, Liverpool
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The future is Birkenhead. View over the Mersey from Labour conference
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Reads perfectly nicely but doesn't actually say anything... ... reminds me of listening to a Keir Starmer speech...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Note that the ONS are now assuming that people take their contractual entitlement, which might well be a bit of an overestimate
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 19/09/2026
How to trade the robot apocalypse So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism Me, 300 free clicks x - as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...
as.ft.com
How should investors position for the robot apocalypse?
The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Yes, Foden should have gone, but Fernandes should have at least been booked. First, he steps on Foden's foot. Then, with no possibility of getting the ball, he stabs he foot into Foden. Arguably, two yellow card offences but at least one #MUNMCI
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laura olin @lauraolin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
If you haven’t read the dedication of Gloria Steinem’s autobiography My Life on the Road, it is really worth taking a second today.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"This is also why falling net migration has not depoliticised immigration... Public concern is being driven less by the statistic than by a broader sense of disorder, asylum politics, visible demographic change and distrust of govt." ✍️ Jonathan Portes on migration 🔗 ow.ly/7MmE50ZFXPq
ow.ly
Race and space: the rise and fall of “net migration” - UK in a changing Europe
Jonathan Portes asks how useful a measure immigration statistics are and argues that they have served to legitimate politics of racialised grievance. 
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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Some thoughts from me on the latest AI security testing farrago substack.com/@ciaranmarti...
substack.com
Control. Ownership. Perspective.
Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems
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Liam Thorp @liamthorp.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I’m a little bit lost for words when trying to sum up the spirit and fortitude of the Hillsborough families But after the privilege of watching them make history again today - I’ve tried to sum it all up here…
liverpoolecho.co.uk
Under a golden Sky the Hillsborough heroes made history again
A seismic day unfolded in parliament after years of tireless campaigning
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Felicity Hannah @felicityhannah.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I’ve been thinking about the many recent press stories highlighting how misogyny in medicine affects women. The worst encounter I ever had was after my third baby. I made an appointment to discuss being sterilised as a long-term contraceptive. 1/
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
What if Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise? There's one catch. He'd need to solve the UK’s biggest and least-discussed tax problem. Almost half of all small business corporation tax isn't being paid - and nobody knows why. Thread:
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
As an exercise in disaster tourism, I listened to the 'Today' interview on the Defence Investment Plan: learned nothing about what's in the plan. Helps no-one make a judgement on whether the government has made the right or wrong judgements in their plan. Waste of time as a programme
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
'Today' is an awful programme, almost unlistenable: the presenters' arrogance as they so blatantly push interviewees to say the one thing they've decided is the story. I learn almost nothing from it, unlike Radio 5 Live and Evan Davis' PM programme: so much better www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
theguardian.com
‘Four white presenters feels retro’ – is the BBC Today programme doomed?
With bosses at the BBC prioritising social media platforms over radio, things feel apocalyptic at the broadcaster’s flagship news show – especially given the lack of diversity. Is this it?
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Seriously, any two-bit organisation can do a strategy process. What matters is depth of thinking & willingness to confront difficult trade-offs. These are questions of political leadership not reading blueprints from Mazzucato's 5-year-old book that had literally no effect on the election result
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Re Ed Miliband as Burnham's Chancellor and 'too left wing' vs 'competent cabinet member', what's missing is that he is the nerds' nerd, very good at engaging with insiders/true believers, not with a sceptical public. Economic/fiscal policy is too important to leave it only to insiders to debate.
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David Whitley @mrdavidwhitley.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Treating any communication platform that algorithmically selects which content to put in front of a user as a publisher, and legally responsible for that content, is the screamingly obvious solution that will deeply upset maybe seven companies and make life considerably better.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 20/05/2026
Read more in the article by @maxroser.bsky.social: ourworldindata.org/breaking-the...
ourworldindata.org
Breaking out of the Malthusian trap: How pandemics allow us to understand why our ancestors were stuck in poverty
The Industrial Revolution ended the Malthusian trap in which incomes were determined by the size of the population — making it possible for a country to leave abject poverty behind.
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Switched to Ovo a few years ago after Eon failed to pick up the phone for 40 minutes. Looking forward to the improvement in customer service as Eon now buys Ovo
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Today's elections seen as a judgement on Keir Starmer shows our failure, over decades, to take local governance seriously. Lack of local powers + lack of local media/functioning local political conversation means why care who controls the council: might as well send a signal to national politicians
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Nicholas Whithorn @nickwhithorn.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
As is traditional, I celebrate Liberation Day by reposting my thread on the final days of Mussolini for newer followers who may not have seen it. Buon 25 aprile a tutti! "Fascism is not an opinion; it is a crime." Sandro Pertini
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
37 years ago, 97 football fans were killed because of state incompetence. After decades fighting, we got the truth, but no accountability. Despite a police conspiracy to lie to the public inquiry, no-one was ever convicted of perverting justice. It's why need the #HillsboroughLaw now #jft97 #ynwa
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Colin Yeo @colinyeo.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
From yesterday: Earned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse | colinyeo
freemovement.org.uk
Earned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse - Free Movement
Applying the new earned settlement rules retrospectively to migrants already here is wrong. People came to the UK under a specific set of rules and made
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Very good post from @chriscurtis94.bsky.social on why we need trams and how development could me made easier and cheaper by devolution, reconfiguring costs, and making environmental approval processes more sensible
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Really clear account from @draliceevans.bsky.social of why economic growth matters to gender equality and how the stats we commonly use may not be telling us what we think
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Alice Evans @draliceevans.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
What's the most under-rated driver of gender equality? (In praise of job-creating economic growth) www.ggd.world/p/whats-the-...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Isn't it wonderful to see your kids growing up: three years ago I had to spend two hours of my life I'll never get back taking my daughter to the Mario Bros movie. Today I'm sat in the Costa at the Odeon looking at Bluesky whilst she's in there watching the sequel with a friend #progress
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Shabana Mahmood's 10 to 20 years settlement policy will undermine workers' rights throughout the labour market and go directly against the intentions of the Employment Rights Act and the government's good work agenda. /1
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Asked for their preferences, straight, British Social Attitudes finds a strong preference for the norm as < 5 years, with many more people preferring 3 years to 10 years. The Labour findings are more liberal than the median. This shows the More in Common poll cues mattered a lot.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
This is a real stretch. This one poll finding the Home Office are using > Has a cue about record net migration in framing; no balanced cue > Uses affirmation bias cue: describes govt policy, > Does not accurately state the policy (15 years for most) Straighter Qs get different results
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
The wealth gradients go thusly Destitute Poor Middle class Well off Rich Super rich So rich that The Times calls you middle class
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Nigel Farage is undermining democracy, not promoting or protecting democracy, when he loudly alleges fraud every time he loses a constituency where there are any visible Asian voters, yet has NEVER once actually brought any evidence to any authority of his allegations, despite OFTEN saying he will
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Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
BMA staff being on strike because the BMA offered them below inflation pay rises for all their work supporting BMA members in their own industrial action may be the most BMA thing ever to happen
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Ashley Rolfmore (she/her) @ashley.rolfmore.com · 24/03/2026
Now my second favourite answer to the trolley problem soc.kouett.net.eu.org/notice/B4aRC...
soc.kouett.net.eu.org
Oomfie Snoofies (@kouett@soc.kouett.net.eu.org)
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Beautiful: www.theanfieldwrap.com/2026/03/youl... #mosalah #lfc
theanfieldwrap.com
You'll Have Your Favourite - Mohamed Salah Will Always Be Mine
The goals. So many goals whilst wearing the Liver Bird. Memories of what Mo Salah has done for Liverpool will never be forgotten...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
My best moments seeing Mo Salah at Anfield were against Utd: 1: running the length of the pitch to bang in the second on 19 Jan 2020 - "We're gonna win the league" booming out for the first time that season. 2: having a hand in five out of the seven in the 7-0 on 5 March 2023 What a legend
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 23/03/2026
In 1966, abortion was suddenly restricted for most women in Romania. In the decades that followed, maternal mortality increased, and by the 1980s, more than 80% of maternal deaths happened as a result of abortion complications.
Maternal mortality rates in Romania climbed following tight restrictions on abortion

Line chart of estimated maternal mortality (deaths per 100,000 live births) from 1965 to 2010, with two labeled series: "Total maternal mortality" and "Maternal mortality from abortions." A vertical marker near the late 1960s indicates "Abortion restricted" and another at 1990 marks "Abortion relegalized." Both series rise after restrictions, with abortion-related deaths forming the bulk of total by the 1980s (annotation: more than 80 percent of maternal deaths were caused by unsafe abortions). Both series peak in the late 1980s — total roughly 160 to 170 per 100,000 and abortion-related roughly 140 to 150 — then drop sharply immediately after relegalization and continue declining through the 1990s and 2000s to low levels around 20 to 30 per 100,000 by 2010. Note: maternal deaths include deaths during pregnancy (including abortion), childbirth, and in the 42 days afterward.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Atrocity upon atrocity. Every detail here is worse than the last. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
Israeli police kill two young Palestinian boys and their parents in West Bank
Mother, father and brothers aged five and seven shot in the head as they returned from Ramadan shopping trip
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
#TreeOfTheDay, New Ferry, Wirral
New Ferry, Wirral
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Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I am so full of admiration for Charlotte Nichols’ courage in talking about this - particularly awful that as a woman in public life she will have had to consider first how people might use this information against her, especially online. Hope she has all the support she needs.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Can anyone explain to me what the Blue Labour justification for this is? Who out there will vote Labour because Mahmood prevented a Sudanese Chevening Scholar? And to be honest, why won’t the PM simply overrule her?
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Carrying on today's #birdoftheday theme of #standinginwater, here's an Indian snakebird at Keoladeo National Park
An Indian snakebird at Keoladeo National Park
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