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Ashwin Kumar

@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social
752 followers 163 following 117 posts

Professor of Social Policy, Policy Evaluation Research Unit, @ManMetUni.bsky.social. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market, tax/benefit modelling, microsimulation. Photography: space, stillness and form

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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 7h
Yes the same arguments apply to the Higher Income Child Benefit Charge - abolishing it and pulling down the £100k threshold creates a redistribution from childless earners around £90k to £100k towards families with children with highest earner between £60k and £80k
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 9h
Yes that's a fair point
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 9h
They're also doing that! The £100k threshold hasn't moved in years - hence more people being hit each year by the £100k childcare cliff edge - and the £125,140 is frozen until 2030/31
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 9h
I think it was introduced as a way of taxing high earners more without increasing the headline rate, which is a sort of shibboleth, but its effect is actually to create a 60% band between £100k and £125,140
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
Why doesn’t the Treasury do this? Is it because they don’t have capacity to do systematic thinking about the tax system, focused as they are on analysing specific proposals during very pressured budget processes? No-one else has responsibility as HMRC is a delivery organisation. /end 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
This change would effectively represent a redistribution from very high earners – particularly without children – towards high earners around the £100k level whilst removing stupid distortions in the Income Tax system to incentivise people around £100k to increase their earnings if they can. /8 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
The numbers need playing with – I haven’t yet done the modelling to get exactly where the thresholds should sit to be revenue neutral – but this is such an obvious reform that the Treasury should have done it and the policy should be under consideration at every budget. /7 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
One way of doing this is to start with swapping the rates around: e.g. abolish the Personal Allowance removal and the Tax-Free childcare cliff-edge, set the £100k rate to 45% and the top rate to 50%, then bring either/or threshold (£100k/£125k) down until the whole thing is revenue neutral. /6 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
The best reform would be to switch around the rates so that rates go up with income rather than falling when you get to £125,140 and there aren’t additional penalties for having children. /5 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
Note that there are two tax thresholds at high levels of earnings: at £100k, where tax-free childcare is lost and the Income Tax rate jumps from 40 to 60% (because of the withdrawal of the Personal Allowance), and then at £125,140, where it drops to 45%. /4 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
This would be a simple change that no-one needs to get that excited about – yes a few childless very high earners will complain but all of the higher earners with children around £100k will appreciate the change, whilst removing one of the unfortunate distortions in the tax system. /3🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
However, it is perfectly possible to remove this cliff edge without offering a giveaway to higher earners: simply adjust tax thresholds downwards so the change is revenue neutral. This will effectively be a redistribution from high earners without children to high earners with. /2 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
Re the debate on the cliff edge where tax-free childcare is lost at £100k leading to people keeping their income below this amount, it’s obvious that such cliff edges are bad as it skews decisions about work – no-one should be worse off if their earnings increase. /1 🧵
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10h
My experience is early years settings assign a key worker to each child, track progress against the Early Years Foundation Stage framework & discuss with parents how they're supporting their development. Restricting access for lower income families seems a recipe for exacerbating future inequalities
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Sunrise over the Mersey
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John Bull @garius.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My teacher brother has just informed me that his primary school kids now refer to anything shit or old fashioned as "Brexit". Which has made my morning.
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Der Spiegel writing in 2018 about how Man City got round the UEFA Financial Fair Play charges www.spiegel.de/internationa...
spiegel.de
Financial Fair Play, Manchester City and PSG: Pact with the Sheikhs
Five years ago, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play, a set of rules designed to level the economic playing field in European football. But during his tenure as UEFA general secretary, Gianni Infantino...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Been wondering whether Man City paid the right tax when giving money to Mancini via an off-book 'consultancy' contract? Here's Dan Neidle's investigation into that issue
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Sunset at the Albert Dock, Liverpool
Sunset at the Albert Dock, Liverpool
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The future is Birkenhead. View over the Mersey from Labour conference
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Reads perfectly nicely but doesn't actually say anything... ... reminds me of listening to a Keir Starmer speech...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Note that the ONS are now assuming that people take their contractual entitlement, which might well be a bit of an overestimate
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 19/09/2026
How to trade the robot apocalypse So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism Me, 300 free clicks x - as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...
as.ft.com
How should investors position for the robot apocalypse?
The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Yes, Foden should have gone, but Fernandes should have at least been booked. First, he steps on Foden's foot. Then, with no possibility of getting the ball, he stabs he foot into Foden. Arguably, two yellow card offences but at least one #MUNMCI
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laura olin @lauraolin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
If you haven’t read the dedication of Gloria Steinem’s autobiography My Life on the Road, it is really worth taking a second today.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"This is also why falling net migration has not depoliticised immigration... Public concern is being driven less by the statistic than by a broader sense of disorder, asylum politics, visible demographic change and distrust of govt." ✍️ Jonathan Portes on migration 🔗 ow.ly/7MmE50ZFXPq
ow.ly
Race and space: the rise and fall of “net migration” - UK in a changing Europe
Jonathan Portes asks how useful a measure immigration statistics are and argues that they have served to legitimate politics of racialised grievance. 
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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Some thoughts from me on the latest AI security testing farrago substack.com/@ciaranmarti...
substack.com
Control. Ownership. Perspective.
Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems
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Liam Thorp @liamthorp.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I’m a little bit lost for words when trying to sum up the spirit and fortitude of the Hillsborough families But after the privilege of watching them make history again today - I’ve tried to sum it all up here…
liverpoolecho.co.uk
Under a golden Sky the Hillsborough heroes made history again
A seismic day unfolded in parliament after years of tireless campaigning
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
CPI is a macroeconomic measure of inflation - that's how it was designed - whereas the point of the new Household Costs Indices is to present a better picture of households' experiences so, yes, we should look at the HCIs to understand what consumers face.
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Felicity Hannah @felicityhannah.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I’ve been thinking about the many recent press stories highlighting how misogyny in medicine affects women. The worst encounter I ever had was after my third baby. I made an appointment to discuss being sterilised as a long-term contraceptive. 1/
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
What if Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise? There's one catch. He'd need to solve the UK’s biggest and least-discussed tax problem. Almost half of all small business corporation tax isn't being paid - and nobody knows why. Thread:
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
As an exercise in disaster tourism, I listened to the 'Today' interview on the Defence Investment Plan: learned nothing about what's in the plan. Helps no-one make a judgement on whether the government has made the right or wrong judgements in their plan. Waste of time as a programme
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
'Today' is an awful programme, almost unlistenable: the presenters' arrogance as they so blatantly push interviewees to say the one thing they've decided is the story. I learn almost nothing from it, unlike Radio 5 Live and Evan Davis' PM programme: so much better www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
theguardian.com
‘Four white presenters feels retro’ – is the BBC Today programme doomed?
With bosses at the BBC prioritising social media platforms over radio, things feel apocalyptic at the broadcaster’s flagship news show – especially given the lack of diversity. Is this it?
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Seriously, any two-bit organisation can do a strategy process. What matters is depth of thinking & willingness to confront difficult trade-offs. These are questions of political leadership not reading blueprints from Mazzucato's 5-year-old book that had literally no effect on the election result
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Re Ed Miliband as Burnham's Chancellor and 'too left wing' vs 'competent cabinet member', what's missing is that he is the nerds' nerd, very good at engaging with insiders/true believers, not with a sceptical public. Economic/fiscal policy is too important to leave it only to insiders to debate.
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David Whitley @mrdavidwhitley.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Treating any communication platform that algorithmically selects which content to put in front of a user as a publisher, and legally responsible for that content, is the screamingly obvious solution that will deeply upset maybe seven companies and make life considerably better.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 20/05/2026
Read more in the article by @maxroser.bsky.social: ourworldindata.org/breaking-the...
ourworldindata.org
Breaking out of the Malthusian trap: How pandemics allow us to understand why our ancestors were stuck in poverty
The Industrial Revolution ended the Malthusian trap in which incomes were determined by the size of the population — making it possible for a country to leave abject poverty behind.
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Switched to Ovo a few years ago after Eon failed to pick up the phone for 40 minutes. Looking forward to the improvement in customer service as Eon now buys Ovo
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Today's elections seen as a judgement on Keir Starmer shows our failure, over decades, to take local governance seriously. Lack of local powers + lack of local media/functioning local political conversation means why care who controls the council: might as well send a signal to national politicians
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Nicholas Whithorn @nickwhithorn.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
As is traditional, I celebrate Liberation Day by reposting my thread on the final days of Mussolini for newer followers who may not have seen it. Buon 25 aprile a tutti! "Fascism is not an opinion; it is a crime." Sandro Pertini
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
37 years ago, 97 football fans were killed because of state incompetence. After decades fighting, we got the truth, but no accountability. Despite a police conspiracy to lie to the public inquiry, no-one was ever convicted of perverting justice. It's why need the #HillsboroughLaw now #jft97 #ynwa
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Colin Yeo @colinyeo.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
From yesterday: Earned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse | colinyeo
freemovement.org.uk
Earned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse - Free Movement
Applying the new earned settlement rules retrospectively to migrants already here is wrong. People came to the UK under a specific set of rules and made
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Very good post from @chriscurtis94.bsky.social on why we need trams and how development could me made easier and cheaper by devolution, reconfiguring costs, and making environmental approval processes more sensible
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Really clear account from @draliceevans.bsky.social of why economic growth matters to gender equality and how the stats we commonly use may not be telling us what we think
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Alice Evans @draliceevans.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
What's the most under-rated driver of gender equality? (In praise of job-creating economic growth) www.ggd.world/p/whats-the-...
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Isn't it wonderful to see your kids growing up: three years ago I had to spend two hours of my life I'll never get back taking my daughter to the Mario Bros movie. Today I'm sat in the Costa at the Odeon looking at Bluesky whilst she's in there watching the sequel with a friend #progress
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
In addition to the right laws, improving the labour market requires workers to have the ability to enforce their rights, and good employers confident they can’t be out-competed by the bad. Enlarging the class of workers dependant on their employers will do the opposite. /end
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
But this means employers who want to treat workers better face competitive pressure from those who don’t. And Shabana Mahmood is just about to give them a licence to get away with it for even longer. /3
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Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
As @colinyeo.bsky.social and Citizens Advice (www.citizensadvice.org.uk/policy/publi...) have pointed out, those with sponsored visas depend entirely on their current employer for their immigration status and so are at much greater risk of exploitation from unscrupulous employers. /2
citizensadvice.org.uk
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