Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 7hYes the same arguments apply to the Higher Income Child Benefit Charge - abolishing it and pulling down the £100k threshold creates a redistribution from childless earners around £90k to £100k towards families with children with highest earner between £60k and £80k 040
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 9hThey're also doing that! The £100k threshold hasn't moved in years - hence more people being hit each year by the £100k childcare cliff edge - and the £125,140 is frozen until 2030/31 010
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 9hI think it was introduced as a way of taxing high earners more without increasing the headline rate, which is a sort of shibboleth, but its effect is actually to create a 60% band between £100k and £125,140 100
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hWhy doesn’t the Treasury do this? Is it because they don’t have capacity to do systematic thinking about the tax system, focused as they are on analysing specific proposals during very pressured budget processes? No-one else has responsibility as HMRC is a delivery organisation. /end 🧵 2221
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hThis change would effectively represent a redistribution from very high earners – particularly without children – towards high earners around the £100k level whilst removing stupid distortions in the Income Tax system to incentivise people around £100k to increase their earnings if they can. /8 🧵 1130
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hThe numbers need playing with – I haven’t yet done the modelling to get exactly where the thresholds should sit to be revenue neutral – but this is such an obvious reform that the Treasury should have done it and the policy should be under consideration at every budget. /7 🧵 2191
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hOne way of doing this is to start with swapping the rates around: e.g. abolish the Personal Allowance removal and the Tax-Free childcare cliff-edge, set the £100k rate to 45% and the top rate to 50%, then bring either/or threshold (£100k/£125k) down until the whole thing is revenue neutral. /6 🧵 1111
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hThe best reform would be to switch around the rates so that rates go up with income rather than falling when you get to £125,140 and there aren’t additional penalties for having children. /5 🧵 1172
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hNote that there are two tax thresholds at high levels of earnings: at £100k, where tax-free childcare is lost and the Income Tax rate jumps from 40 to 60% (because of the withdrawal of the Personal Allowance), and then at £125,140, where it drops to 45%. /4 🧵 1120
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hThis would be a simple change that no-one needs to get that excited about – yes a few childless very high earners will complain but all of the higher earners with children around £100k will appreciate the change, whilst removing one of the unfortunate distortions in the tax system. /3🧵 3110
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hHowever, it is perfectly possible to remove this cliff edge without offering a giveaway to higher earners: simply adjust tax thresholds downwards so the change is revenue neutral. This will effectively be a redistribution from high earners without children to high earners with. /2 🧵 2303
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hRe the debate on the cliff edge where tax-free childcare is lost at £100k leading to people keeping their income below this amount, it’s obvious that such cliff edges are bad as it skews decisions about work – no-one should be worse off if their earnings increase. /1 🧵 55116
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 10hMy experience is early years settings assign a key worker to each child, track progress against the Early Years Foundation Stage framework & discuss with parents how they're supporting their development. Restricting access for lower income families seems a recipe for exacerbating future inequalities 020
Reposted by Ashwin KumarJohn Bull @garius.bsky.social · 02/10/2026My teacher brother has just informed me that his primary school kids now refer to anything shit or old fashioned as "Brexit". Which has made my morning. 362023443
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Der Spiegel writing in 2018 about how Man City got round the UEFA Financial Fair Play charges www.spiegel.de/internationa...spiegel.deFinancial Fair Play, Manchester City and PSG: Pact with the SheikhsFive years ago, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play, a set of rules designed to level the economic playing field in European football. But during his tenure as UEFA general secretary, Gianni Infantino... 000
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Been wondering whether Man City paid the right tax when giving money to Mancini via an off-book 'consultancy' contract? Here's Dan Neidle's investigation into that issue 022
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The future is Birkenhead. View over the Mersey from Labour conference 010
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Reads perfectly nicely but doesn't actually say anything... ... reminds me of listening to a Keir Starmer speech... 111
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Note that the ONS are now assuming that people take their contractual entitlement, which might well be a bit of an overestimate 020
Reposted by Ashwin KumarKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 19/09/2026How to trade the robot apocalypse So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism Me, 300 free clicks x - as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...as.ft.comHow should investors position for the robot apocalypse?The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets 146316
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Yes, Foden should have gone, but Fernandes should have at least been booked. First, he steps on Foden's foot. Then, with no possibility of getting the ball, he stabs he foot into Foden. Arguably, two yellow card offences but at least one #MUNMCI 001
Reposted by Ashwin Kumarlaura olin @lauraolin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026If you haven’t read the dedication of Gloria Steinem’s autobiography My Life on the Road, it is really worth taking a second today. 272161476
Reposted by Ashwin KumarUK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 28/08/2026"This is also why falling net migration has not depoliticised immigration... Public concern is being driven less by the statistic than by a broader sense of disorder, asylum politics, visible demographic change and distrust of govt." ✍️ Jonathan Portes on migration 🔗 ow.ly/7MmE50ZFXPqow.lyRace and space: the rise and fall of “net migration” - UK in a changing EuropeJonathan Portes asks how useful a measure immigration statistics are and argues that they have served to legitimate politics of racialised grievance. 02811
Reposted by Ashwin KumarCiaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Some thoughts from me on the latest AI security testing farrago substack.com/@ciaranmarti...substack.comControl. Ownership. Perspective.Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems 15623
Reposted by Ashwin KumarLiam Thorp @liamthorp.bsky.social · 14/07/2026I’m a little bit lost for words when trying to sum up the spirit and fortitude of the Hillsborough families But after the privilege of watching them make history again today - I’ve tried to sum it all up here…liverpoolecho.co.ukUnder a golden Sky the Hillsborough heroes made history againA seismic day unfolded in parliament after years of tireless campaigning 922949
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/07/2026CPI is a macroeconomic measure of inflation - that's how it was designed - whereas the point of the new Household Costs Indices is to present a better picture of households' experiences so, yes, we should look at the HCIs to understand what consumers face. 010
Reposted by Ashwin KumarFelicity Hannah @felicityhannah.bsky.social · 02/07/2026I’ve been thinking about the many recent press stories highlighting how misogyny in medicine affects women. The worst encounter I ever had was after my third baby. I made an appointment to discuss being sterilised as a long-term contraceptive. 1/ 104616
Reposted by Ashwin KumarDan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 01/07/2026What if Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise? There's one catch. He'd need to solve the UK’s biggest and least-discussed tax problem. Almost half of all small business corporation tax isn't being paid - and nobody knows why. Thread: 42540271
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 01/07/2026As an exercise in disaster tourism, I listened to the 'Today' interview on the Defence Investment Plan: learned nothing about what's in the plan. Helps no-one make a judgement on whether the government has made the right or wrong judgements in their plan. Waste of time as a programme 041
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/06/2026'Today' is an awful programme, almost unlistenable: the presenters' arrogance as they so blatantly push interviewees to say the one thing they've decided is the story. I learn almost nothing from it, unlike Radio 5 Live and Evan Davis' PM programme: so much better www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...theguardian.com‘Four white presenters feels retro’ – is the BBC Today programme doomed?With bosses at the BBC prioritising social media platforms over radio, things feel apocalyptic at the broadcaster’s flagship news show – especially given the lack of diversity. Is this it? 040
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 28/06/2026Seriously, any two-bit organisation can do a strategy process. What matters is depth of thinking & willingness to confront difficult trade-offs. These are questions of political leadership not reading blueprints from Mazzucato's 5-year-old book that had literally no effect on the election result 010
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 26/06/2026Re Ed Miliband as Burnham's Chancellor and 'too left wing' vs 'competent cabinet member', what's missing is that he is the nerds' nerd, very good at engaging with insiders/true believers, not with a sceptical public. Economic/fiscal policy is too important to leave it only to insiders to debate. 010
Reposted by Ashwin KumarDavid Whitley @mrdavidwhitley.bsky.social · 08/06/2026Treating any communication platform that algorithmically selects which content to put in front of a user as a publisher, and legally responsible for that content, is the screamingly obvious solution that will deeply upset maybe seven companies and make life considerably better. 4744266
Reposted by Ashwin KumarSam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/06/2026DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%. 851351420
Reposted by Ashwin KumarOur World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 20/05/2026Read more in the article by @maxroser.bsky.social: ourworldindata.org/breaking-the...ourworldindata.orgBreaking out of the Malthusian trap: How pandemics allow us to understand why our ancestors were stuck in povertyThe Industrial Revolution ended the Malthusian trap in which incomes were determined by the size of the population — making it possible for a country to leave abject poverty behind. 0112
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Switched to Ovo a few years ago after Eon failed to pick up the phone for 40 minutes. Looking forward to the improvement in customer service as Eon now buys Ovo 010
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 07/05/2026Today's elections seen as a judgement on Keir Starmer shows our failure, over decades, to take local governance seriously. Lack of local powers + lack of local media/functioning local political conversation means why care who controls the council: might as well send a signal to national politicians 031
Reposted by Ashwin KumarNicholas Whithorn @nickwhithorn.bsky.social · 24/04/2026As is traditional, I celebrate Liberation Day by reposting my thread on the final days of Mussolini for newer followers who may not have seen it. Buon 25 aprile a tutti! "Fascism is not an opinion; it is a crime." Sandro Pertini 7290134
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 15/04/202637 years ago, 97 football fans were killed because of state incompetence. After decades fighting, we got the truth, but no accountability. Despite a police conspiracy to lie to the public inquiry, no-one was ever convicted of perverting justice. It's why need the #HillsboroughLaw now #jft97 #ynwa 010
Reposted by Ashwin KumarColin Yeo @colinyeo.bsky.social · 08/04/2026From yesterday: Earned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse | colinyeofreemovement.org.ukEarned settlement: retrospective change is wrong but prospective change is even worse - Free MovementApplying the new earned settlement rules retrospectively to migrants already here is wrong. People came to the UK under a specific set of rules and made 0125
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026Very good post from @chriscurtis94.bsky.social on why we need trams and how development could me made easier and cheaper by devolution, reconfiguring costs, and making environmental approval processes more sensible 000
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 06/04/2026Really clear account from @draliceevans.bsky.social of why economic growth matters to gender equality and how the stats we commonly use may not be telling us what we think 162
Reposted by Ashwin KumarAlice Evans @draliceevans.bsky.social · 06/04/2026What's the most under-rated driver of gender equality? (In praise of job-creating economic growth) www.ggd.world/p/whats-the-... 03310
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 02/04/2026Isn't it wonderful to see your kids growing up: three years ago I had to spend two hours of my life I'll never get back taking my daughter to the Mario Bros movie. Today I'm sat in the Costa at the Odeon looking at Bluesky whilst she's in there watching the sequel with a friend #progress 000
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026In addition to the right laws, improving the labour market requires workers to have the ability to enforce their rights, and good employers confident they can’t be out-competed by the bad. Enlarging the class of workers dependant on their employers will do the opposite. /end 070
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026But this means employers who want to treat workers better face competitive pressure from those who don’t. And Shabana Mahmood is just about to give them a licence to get away with it for even longer. /3 161
Ashwin Kumar @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social · 30/03/2026As @colinyeo.bsky.social and Citizens Advice (www.citizensadvice.org.uk/policy/publi...) have pointed out, those with sponsored visas depend entirely on their current employer for their immigration status and so are at much greater risk of exploitation from unscrupulous employers. /2citizensadvice.org.uk 161