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Antoine Berthou

@antoineberthou.bsky.social
105 followers 144 following 2 posts

Economist sites.google.com/site/antoineberthou

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Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Kirsten @kmschubring.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
And to cut off independent reporting www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
wsj.com
Trump Calls on Goldman to Replace Economist Over Tariff Stance
The bank’s economists had predicted tariffs could cause inflation and slow economic growth.
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CEPII @cepii-paris.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
📊🅻🅴 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞-🆃🅷🅴 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 "La vulnérabilité bilatérale aux importations est plus forte aux États-Unis qu’en Europe" de Kevin Lefebvre et @paulinewbx.bsky.social www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post... @denizunalcepii.bsky.social #econsky #importation
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International and Monetary Economics Network @intmon.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
The Fed will likely have a difficult task! "Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension." www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
federalreserve.gov
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and moneta
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Antoine Berthou @antoineberthou.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
The global economy in pictures : last few days have been tough… I truly hope we are heading towards quieter waters. This will require cold blood and … adults in the room !
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Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.eurosky.social · 07/04/2025
The US is ignoring WTO rules regarding trade in goods. Why should it enjoy WTO rules regarding trade in services? And how does anyone expect the rules-based system. on which countries like Ireland depend, to survive, if countries can pick and choose what rules to follow? www.rte.ie/news/politic...
rte.ie
Targeting tech firms would be 'extraordinary escalation'
It would be an "extraordinary" escalation for the European Union to target US tech companies in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs on European goods, the Tánaiste has said.
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 11/03/2025
Floods, wildfires, devastation— #climate disasters are growing, yet many remain uninsured. A CEPR-AXA Research Fund event explored the future of #insurability & the role of prevention, pricing, & #policy. More here: 🔗https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/insuring-world-tomorrow @wederdim.bsky.social
Insuring the world of tomorrow.
Ulrike Decoene  Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Intensifying climate extremes are exposing growing gaps in insurance coverage and threatening financial resilience. Drawing on a recent panel hosted at the Collège de France, this column examines how escalating disaster costs, market failures, and the need for better prevention urge to redefine societies’ risk management mechanisms in an increasingly uncertain climate landscape. The discussion highlighted the tension between risk-based pricing and solidarity-based schemes, underlining the necessity of prevention efforts and more equitable risk-sharing arrangements. As climate hazards intensify, striking a sustainable balance between affordability and fiscal viability emerges as a pressing challenge for policymakers, insurers, and society alike.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
1/10 "The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration. www.ft.com/content/bdba...
ft.com
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Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 14/02/2025
“I want a slice of bread but also I will howl with rage if you start slicing the bread” - my two year old
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Pol Antras @pantras.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
10/ Want to dig deeper? Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file... Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file... Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file... Replication package available soon.
antras.scholars.harvard.edu
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Pol Antras @pantras.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.
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Marion Jansen @marionjansen.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
China has come to dominate global value chains for solar modules & wind turbines, accounting globally for >80% of module production + >70% of production of key turbine components. Is government support part of the success story? Find out more in this new OECD report: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
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Robert Wolfe @bobwolfe.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
terrific interview with @douglasirwin.bsky.social If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript www.ft.com/content/58ec...
ft.com
Transcript: Tariffs past, present and future. With Doug Irwin
Alan Beattie talks to Doug Irwin, economics professor at Dartmouth College and the author of several books on trade
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Dennis Novy @dennisnovy.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Great interview: @douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present By @alanbeattie.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
Trump and the history of tariffs. With Doug Irwin
Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 20/01/2025 · 43m
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Without comment: Elon Musk today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfY...
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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pgourinchas.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
New at JIE: "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises" by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Sebastian Stumpner doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.1040…
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
I am excited to be joining @csis.org as the Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, leading a team conducting rigorous, applied economic analysis to shape U.S. strategic and economic policy. www.csis.org/news/csis-na...
csis.org
CSIS Names Philip A. Luck as Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of Economics Program
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) announced Philip A. Luck has been named Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of the CSIS Economics Program.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Nice FT write-up of our new Brexit & trade paper by the always excellent @pmdfoster.bsky.social Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit on.ft.com/4iK8esS
on.ft.com
Brexit hit to UK trade less than predicted, says study
Larger companies have adapted to red tape at the border, according to London School of Economics research
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
How many lies can one pack into a single paragraph. See Jeffrey Tucker show you! #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
1. No exchange rate effect. In this case imports are 10% more expensive for consumers. Exports are the same (because the exchange rate did not change) and the trade deficit shrinks. The entire tariff is paid by Americans.
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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Tariffs & exchange rates. A short explainer of the simple case of 10% across-the-board tariffs. Let's start with no retaliation. Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters. Three cases:
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Good Paul Krugman piece on the relationship between the dollar and the US trade deficit: "the trade deficits of the 80s arguably marked the point at which the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing really got going." open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com
The Dollar and the Trade Deficit
What will Trump do when his favorite obsession goes the wrong way?
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
A useful discussion by @michaelpettis.bsky.social of my piece on tariffs. I agree that if (a) an existing current account deficit is inefficient; and (b) a tariff can reduce/correct the deficit, that a tariff can be efficiency enhancing, in a second-best sense. But the caveats are important. +
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Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.eurosky.social · 08/01/2025
This is making me feel young again, it's all very 1980s! Back then Mike Gavin and I independently showed that tariffs can improve the current account in an inter-temporal S-I framework, by hurting income more in the long run than in the short run. So not necessarily to be recommended...
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hilzoy @hilzoy.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
"If Trump insists on his view, the good news, for the rest of the world at least, is that the economic costs will be borne mainly by Americans."
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
8/8 That is why I often cite Ragnar Nurkse: “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.” This is true about any policy that changes existing trade relationships.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
6/8 That is why the comparison with currency depreciation is useful. If a country's currency is undervalued, or "correctly" valued, devaluing the currency is likely to distort the efficient functioning of the market and to reduce global value creation.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
5/8 At least in the short term (see Rodrik's "infant industry" exception). But in a world of highly unbalanced trade, tariffs can actually improve efficiency if they are designed to counter beggar-thy-neighbor policies and reverse the imbalances.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
1/8 As always, Dani Rodrik presents a nuanced discussion of tariffs without the hysteria that usually surrounds any such discussion. He notes that "an import tariff is a specific combination of two different policies: a tax on...
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
High-quality and informative discussion between @drodrik.bsky.social and @michaelpettis.bsky.social on the use cases and effectiveness of tariffs, starting from this piece.
project-syndicate.org
What Tariffs Can and Can’t Do | by Dani Rodrik - Project Syndicate
Dani Rodrik argues that import duties are neither an all-purpose tool, as Donald Trump believes, nor a purposeless one.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
1/7 It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
bloomberg.com
Global Economy Braces for 1930s-Style Unilateralism
China’s decision this week to let its currency weaken against the dollar past a level it had defended for weeks highlights the potential for 2025 to see major tensions over exchange-rate policy.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
1/5 NYT: "“Our new approach to trade recognizes people as more than just consumers, but also producers,” Katherine Tai said in a 2023 speech." This is a key point in any serious discussion of US trade or industrial policy. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/u...
nytimes.com
How the Democrats Lost the Working Class
The theory seemed sound: Stabilize financial markets, support the poor and promote a more secure, integrated world. But blue-collar workers were left behind.
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Vincent Vicard @vvicard.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Prochain séminaire compétitivité CEPII-BdF "L’Europe au défi de Trump 2.0" Présentation d'Antoine Bouët et discussion d'Antoine Berthou @antoineberthou.bsky.social Mercredi 15 janvier 2025 de 11h à 12h30. Inscriptions ici: www.banque-france.fr/fr/webform/l... @cepii-paris.bsky.social
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Ivan Werning @ivanwerning.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
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Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Covid-related lockdowns in 2020 reduced international trade beyond their impact through economic activity, suggesting an important increase in trade costs. This paper shows that World trade in 2020 was reduced by 8%–11%. Welfare losses vary between 0.2%–3% across countries. 2/2
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Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Recently at JIE: "Trade under lockdown" by Antoine Berthou (@antoineberthou.bsky.social) and Sebastian Stumpner doi.org/10.1016/j.ji... 1/2
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NBER @nber.org · 19/12/2024
The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 led to a 72 percent relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs and a likely permanent increase in world trade, from David S. Jacks, Christopher M. Meissner, and Nikolaus Wolf www.nber.org/papers/w33250
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Excellent summary of the demographic and labor market dynamics in the US over the last 25 years. econofact.org/immigration-...
econofact.org
Immigration and Waning US Labor Force Growth | Econofact
The growth of the working-age population born in the U.S. has slowed dramatically — particularly among less-educated workers. Has immigration filled the gap?
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Very nice post by Noah Smith about my favorite subject: Me! www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-paul-k...
noahpinion.blog
How Paul Krugman changed the public face of economics
He's a great economist, but he also changed how we talk about the subject.
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
And the new era begins. My Substack is alive again, and here's my first post paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-fraudu...
paulkrugman.substack.com
The Fraudulence of “Waste, Fraud and Abuse”
History repeats itself, the first time as farce, the second as clown show
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
People have been puzzling over Scott Bessent's claim that tariffs can't be inflationary — which is, by the way, completely different from Trump's claim that foreigners will pay. The thing is, there is a kind of model here — one that is clear, consistent, and totally false 1/
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, measured over 6 mos at an annual rate, has declined from 4.5 to 2.5 over the past 6 months. So, if underlying inflation can fall almost in half without a major rise in unemployment, in what sense was it "underlying"?
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
If I'm reading the ECB data right, euro area core inflation was 4.1% over the past year, only 3% annualized for the past 6 months. Team Transitory being vindicated over there too
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