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Philip A. Luck

@philuck.bsky.social
1.8K followers 2.1K following 76 posts

Director of Economics Program and Scholl Chair of International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Writing and thinking about all things economics, technology, and strategic policy. All opinions are my own.

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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Bruegel @bruegel.org · 12/09/2026
❓What the US-Canada trade war means for Europe As the EU’s top trading partners fight, what are the lessons for the single market? 🗣️ @philuck.bsky.social in conversation with @rebeccawire.bsky.social, Ignacio García Bercero & @jfkirkegaard.bsky.social 🔗 Listen to the podcast now: buff.ly/mIPeUfq
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Bond Sell-Off Sends Borrowing Costs to Highest Level Since 2007 www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/b...
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
This is, bar none, the stupidest fuckung thing I’ve ever heard. And the idea that there’s nobody in the chain of command - civilian or military - with enough courage to say so is a disgrace.
wapo.st
Navy weighs major warship redesign to match Trump’s preferences
The president wants the new fleet of aircraft carriers to more resemble those from World War II. Such a change could cost billions.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
On Friday, the Senate has the Russia sanction bill. Check out our conversation on what it means for sanctions, export controls and tariffs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JWu...
youtube.com
The Russia Sanctions Bill, Sanctions Coordination, & Getting Sanctions Right | The Trade Off
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
That ought to do it www.politico.eu/article/eu-f...
politico.eu
EU finance ministers tell US to end Middle East war
Top officials used the G7 gathering in Paris to warn Scott Bessent of the economic consequences of the war in Iran.
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 14/05/2026
In the latest episode of Pekingology, CSIS Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin is joined by @philuck.bsky.social to discuss the economic and commercial context for the big summit between President Trump and President Xi in Beijing. Listen: bit.ly/4umjZuA
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New program for your consideration. In the first episode of The Trade Off, we talk about the role of China in rebuilding the military capabilities of Iran, and what the US can do about it. youtu.be/6JGkEtp8WT0
youtu.be
How China Supplies Iran's Military — And What the U.S. Can Do About It | The Trade Off
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
How long until Americans get tired of this administration collecting illegal taxes? www.politico.com/news/2026/05...
politico.com
Trade court rules Trump’s replacement tariffs illegal
A divided three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade concluded that Trump’s 10 percent global tariffs are unlawful.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Where can The Onion go from here?
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The “Peace Dividend” of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach www.nber.org/papers/w35078
nber.org
The “Peace Dividend” of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 20/03/2026
The war in Iran could trigger a global food shock • More than 1.1mn tonnes of fertiliser and fertiliser inputs is currently stuck in the Gulf • Shortages are starting during northern hemisphere’s planting season, raising the risk of lower harvests for staples like rice www.ft.com/content/1054...
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 13/03/2026
Let there be as much outrage from politicians in Washington when kids go hungry as there is when I break bread with New Yorkers.
Senator Tuberville on x writing a response to the @endwokeness account 

Original tweet from @EndWokeness - “less than 25 years apart”
Image 1 - the twin towers as they are hit by a the planes on 9/11/2001
Image 2 - Mayor Mamdani sitting on a prayer rug while hosting an Iftar  at city hall

Quote tweet from Senator Tuberville - “the enemy is inside the gates.”
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Japan’s snap election underscores the limits of economic coercion against resilient democracies. That lesson matters not only for Beijing, but for Washington as well. @geopolitics.csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/tak...
csis.org
Takaichi Landslide Shows Limits of Chinese Economic Coercion
Philip Luck examines the recent Japanese election, highlighting how economic coercion against democracies can often strengthen government support and influence electoral outcomes.
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Page One. @wsj.com
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 29/01/2026
If tariff threats return or are implemented, the EU would likely retaliate against high-visibility U.S. industries, writes Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business expert @philuck.bsky.social. Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/why...
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
The Associated Press @apnews.com · 24/01/2026
The Minneapolis protester fatally shot by a federal officer was 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti, his parents say.
bit.ly
The man killed by a US Border Patrol officer in Minneapolis was an ICU nurse, family says
Family members say the man who was killed by a federal officer in Minneapolis was an intensive care nurse at a Department of Veterans Affairs hospital who cared deeply about people and was upset by President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown in his city.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
A country is more than its laws or status; it’s how it acts & how its people respond when those laws are violated. Americans have a duty to stand against cruelty and injustice, showing the world we are worthy of leading and protecting the global community. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/us...
nytimes.com
Minneapolis Live Updates: Videos Appear to Contradict Federal Account of Killing
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Truly horrific wapo.st/45VMjKe
wapo.st
Column | The abhorrent power of the photograph of a 5-year-old held by ICE
An image like this could once change history. Can one still?
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department @est.csis.org · 12/11/2025
President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his use of tariffs. In the latest from the State of Play podcast, @navingirishankar.bsky.social and @philuck.bsky.social join @willtodman.bsky.social to discuss what they aim to achieve. Listen here:
tinyurl.com
Are President Trump's tariffs working? | State of Play | CSIS Podcasts
Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss President Trump’s foreign policy and economic agendas.
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 30/08/2025
rule of law Rule of law Rule of Law Rule Of Law! RULE OF LAW!!!
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 05/11/2025
On the latest episode of the Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch discuss the outcomes from President Trump's trip to Asia, including negotiations with China, the ROK, and ASEAN. Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra... 
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 05/11/2025
Ukraine's funding gap, including cash and arms, could stand at around US$389bn in 2026-29 • That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022 • EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Fascinating - a sliver of why it's insufficient to argue that China simply "cheats" WTO subsidies disciplines. Rather, Chinese lenders operate in a far more complex way. No amount of navigating control of SOEs will account for this integrated, layered support. www.aiddata.org/publications...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Live now! Tune in!
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS Korea Chair @korea.csis.org · 18/10/2025
🟦 The Capital Cable #123 | 10/23 9AM ET Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls. 🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Today on The Trade Guys: Is globalization dead? Spoiler alert— youtu.be/da3tsiz8hg8?...
media.tenor.com
a group of people are laying on the ground and one of them is saying `` i 'm getting better! ''
ALT: a group of people are laying on the ground and one of them is saying `` i 'm getting better! ''
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Zeke Hernandez @profzeke.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Glad to see the US Chamber of Commerce speak up on the $100,000 H-1B tax. I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
The longer the US-China trade war goes on, the more US farmers will suffer and the more it will cost every American to bail them out. We are in the middle of the normal harvest/export season for soybeans. The clock is ticking. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=porc...
youtube.com
Will farmers survive the U.S.-China trade war?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
U.S. farmers are bearing the brunt of China's retaliatory trade policies. Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
youtube.com
Will farmers survive the U.S.-China trade war?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
We’re now in the heart of harvest season — but for many U.S. farmers, the outlook is grim. China hasn’t purchased U.S. soybeans since May and total U.S. agriculteral export to China are down 73% since January. Unless sales rebound soon, American producers face devastating revenue losses. @csis.org
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
👇
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 30/09/2025
In a new episode of The Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch examine why tariffs haven't had as significant impact on the economy as expected. Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
United Farm Workers @ufw.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
"Julia" shares, "I've been working in the strawberries for 12 years in Santa Maria, CA. It is very hard work. I get very tired because I have to walk bent over all day long and it hurts my back. But it is how I earn money to feed my family." #WeFeedYou
A worker standing in a strawberry field
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Silky @silkyweineck.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
The 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.
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Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD @elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
Watching this video 10 times has significantly improved my mood.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
csis.org
How Tariffs Could Derail the United States’ $3 Trillion AI Buildout
The CSIS Economics Program cautions that U.S. tariffs on inputs to data centers, including a recent proposal to put a 100 percent tariff on semiconductors, threaten to undermine U.S. AI leadership and...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
youtube.com
How Tariffs Could Derail America’s AI Buildout
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org
youtube.com
How Tariffs Could Derail America’s AI Buildout
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.
tinyurl.com
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.
The tariffs are a substantial new source of revenue for the federal government. The budget may start to depend on it.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...
youtu.be
Is U.S. Trade Policy Driving Partners Closer to China?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Trump’s trade strategy is taking shape— EU deal adds to a flurry of new frameworks. New analysis w/ Ina Simonovska. Uniform tariffs could raise U.S. GDP by 2.2%. Retaliation could cut it by 5.3%. The admin must design policy carefully to avoid self-harm: www.csis.org/analysis/tru...
csis.org
Trump’s Trade Strategy Takes Shape with Latest EU Trade Deal
A new commentary from the CSIS Economics Program and the Scholl Chair in International Business offers an economic analysis of the impact of tariffs and presents recommendations for policymakers to mi...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
🚨 We're hiring! The @CSIS Economics Program is looking for a paid Fall 2025 intern in DC. Great chance to work on trade, tech, and economic security issues at the heart of U.S. strategy. Apply by Aug 9 👉 careers.csis.org/opportunitie... #EconTwitter #PolicyJobs #Internship
careers.csis.org
Careers | Center for Strategic and International Studies
CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop polic...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Honored to join #LesRencontresEconomiques to discuss immigration—its economic realities and the enduring political appeal of denying them. Durable myths fuel polarization and stall the policies we need for broad-based growth. My essay for the event: www.lesrencontreseconomiques.fr/en/debats-id...
lesrencontreseconomiques.fr
America’s Immigration Paradox
America’s economic strength has long depended on immigration. Yet current restrictions—and the political narratives driving them—are undermining that foundation. To sustain long-term growth, innovatio...
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
LFG!
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Surprised I can still be surprised, but seriously WTF…
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
This is the news I need.
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
The ethane export controls reveal a troubling pattern: assumption-based policymaking without rigorous analysis. Before weaponizing trade, the US must do cost-benefit analysis. Economic statecraft requires forethought, not improvisation. 🧵👇 My latest @CSIS analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/eth...
csis.org
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Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
🛑 Who really writes U.S. trade rules—the president or Congress? CSIS breaks down a pivotal court ruling that may reshape the balance of power in U.S. trade policy. A must-read question piece: www.csis.org/analysis/wha...
csis.org
What the Court’s Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Means for U.S. Trade Policy and the Economy
A new Critical Questions piece from Phil Luck explores the Court of International Trade's decision to strike down President Trump's IEEPA tariffs.
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