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Álvaro Padilla Pozo

@alvaropp.bsky.social
363 followers 359 following 25 posts

Ph.D. candidate in Sociology at Cornell. Environmental Demography. Gender and Health Inequality. Urban Sociology. apadillapozo.com Ithaca, NY, USA ❄️; Alicante, Spain☀️.

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
How do people decide how many children to have and when to stop? It's complicated! Lots of sociologists/demographers in this piece, including yours truly & @srhayford.bsky.social.
theatlantic.com
She Wanted to Have Three Kids. Then Life Happened.
Many women start out with a notion of their ideal number of children—but a variety of obstacles can get in the way.
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NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026
An Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse may overturn some of the effects of global warming—easing its impact on developing countries and instead harming more advanced economies, from @jlcruzalv, @klausvanieper, and @HansbergRossi www.nber.org/papers/w35811
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Marc Guinjoan @mguinjoan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
📢 We're hiring! Looking for a PhD candidate to join the ATTCLIMPOLS project on political attitudes & climate change, at the Dept. of Political Science, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. 🌍 🗳️ Deadline for expressions of interest: Oct 2, 2026 📄 Info: uab-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/person...
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Jasmin Abdel Ghany @jasminabdelghany.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Join us for the second Climate x Health seminar on university strategy on 22 September at @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social! There will be a chance for lots of discussion and... scones and coffee. 🍰☕️ Registration link below.
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NBER @nber.org · 12/08/2026
Children's randomized genetic endowments evoke differential parental and teacher expectations for human capital acquisition, from Philipp Dierker and Dalton Conley www.nber.org/papers/w35576
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I was looking for resources to learn more about what makes a good job talk and came across this post in Scatterplot from 2008. What's something you saw in a job talk recently that you felt was particularly good? Any dos or dont's you'd emphasize?
scatter.wordpress.com
ask a scatterbrain: job talk
What makes a good job talk?
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Relatedly, I found this repo with R and Stata packages that allow you to estimate DiD for binary and non-binary outcomes where groups experience treatment switches Repo: github.com/Credible-Ans...
github.com
GitHub - Credible-Answers/did_multiplegt_dyn: || Stata | R || Estimation of event-study Difference-in-Difference (DID) estimators in designs with multiple groups and periods, and with a potentially no...
|| Stata | R || Estimation of event-study Difference-in-Difference (DID) estimators in designs with multiple groups and periods, and with a potentially non-binary treatment that may increase or dec...
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Re-posting in case any friend sees it and chimes in!
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 16/07/2026
Who speaks demography and Spanish? This 1979 Chilean policy document wants to maximize three indicators, and Google translates them all as life expectancy...? esperanza de nacer esperanza de sobrevivir esperanza de vida media
La Polítioa de Población a través de las
funciones que cumplen loe distintos minis-
terios, tiene por objeto lograr un desarro
llo nacional de manera tal, que se logre au
mentar al máximo posible los siguientes in
dicadores básicos de desarrollo social
especialmente los tres primeros.

Esperanza de Nacer.

--

Esperanza de Sobrevivir.

Esperanza de Desarrollo Integral (fí
sico, cognoscitivo, afectivo y social).

Esperanza de Vida Media.Google Translate

XA Text

Detect language Spanish

esperanza de nacer
esperanza de sobrevivir
esperanza de vida media

Images

Documents

EI

Websites

Ilocano

English

Italian Spanish

X

life expectancy
life expectancy
average life expectancy
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A Hispanic friend just told me esperanza al nacer could mean life expectancy at birth, but they're not sure.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Translating this from Castillian Spanish. 100% sure about one, but 2/3 could mean a different thing in Latin America. These are not terms I was taught in my undergrad Demography class.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
1. Esperanza de vida media = average life expectancy 2. Esperanza de sobrevivir = survival expectancy (expectation of survival... conditional on something?) 3. Esperanza de nacer = birth expectancy (I think this refers to the probability of surviving birth) 1/2
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Those Nerdy Girls @thosenerdygirls.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Can some medications make me more heat sensitive? Yes, certain medications can make you more likely to experience heat-related illness. While we can’t control the weather, we can prepare and help more people stay safe. Read more from @daphneberryhill.bsky.social here:
thosenerdygirls.substack.com
Can some medications make me more heat sensitive?
Yes, certain medications can make you more likely to experience heat-related illness. While we can’t control the weather, we can prepare and help more people stay safe.
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Dr. Dominic Royé @drxeo.eu · 26/05/2026
Extreme heat is no longer just a matter of comfort. It is a public health issue, a matter of social equity, and one of climate justice. And pregnant women are on the front line. #heat #publichealth #climatechange Our article in @theconversation.com 👇 theconversation.com/climate-chan...
theconversation.com
Climate change-related heat increases the risk of premature birth in 13 countries – new study
Our study looked at 36.6 million summer births.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 03/09/2025
How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat? Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations. Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
Screenshot for the interactive tool to enter year you were born and where for how has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat? In a warming world, people are experiencing more extremely hot days than they used to.
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Dr. Dominic Royé @drxeo.eu · 02/09/2025
🌡️ New global study: hot nights increase mortality risk — independently of daytime heat. 178 cities, 44 countries, 14M+ deaths analyzed. Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network. #HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
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Climate Central @climatecentral.org · 26/08/2025
🍂 Aug-tober? From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week. 🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
Map of the U.S. showing average temperature anomalies on August 26, 2025. Much of the Central and Eastern U.S. is shaded blue, indicating temperatures 5–15°F cooler than normal. Stronger cool anomalies appear in the Midwest and Mid-South. Warmer-than-normal areas in red and orange are seen along the West Coast, southern Texas, and parts of the Southwest
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Enfatizo esto cada vez que hablo sobre calor y salud con otras personas. Si no estás acostumbradx, 30 grados pueden ser una pesadilla. I emphasize this every time I talk about the impacts of heat on health with other people. If you're not used to it, 30C 86F can be a nightmare.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Esto estaba pensando ahora... si hace un calor para cocerse ya, lo de aguantar "5 días" va a ser tremendo.
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World Inequality Lab @wid.world · 26/06/2025
🇪🇸 How is wealth distributed in Spain ? This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain. Key findings in 🧵[1/5] wid.world/news-article...
wid.world
New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain - WID - World Inequality Database
New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain The source for global inequality data. Open access, high quality wealth and income inequality data developed by an internation...
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
aeaweb.org
Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide
(Forthcoming Article) - Difference-in-differences (DiD) is arguably the most popular quasi-experimental research design. Its canonical form, with two groups and two periods, is well-understood. Howeve...
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Lisa Sorg @lisasorg.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
It felt like a cool May, but only because we're frogs in a pot of water that is gradually boiling. @climatecentral.org
A graphic showing that the average temperature in Raleigh/Durham since 1970 has risen by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit
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Benito Fuentes @metbeni.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
⚠️El calor de hoy no ha sido lo normal 🔥 Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/05/2025
Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1... with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
What can be learned when multiple analysts arrive at different estimates

Kowall et al. (2025) have brought the multi-analyst approach to epidemiology, with instructive results. With this approach, multiple researchers analyze the same data set to answer the same research question. Or, at least, what appears to be the same research question. In fact, the very first paper that popularized this approach [1] has been criticized for using a vague research question (“Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone?”), which apparently led the analysts to try to answer quite different questions—from a simple question about a bivariate statistical association to much more complex causal questions about racial bias [2].

In contrast, the research question passed on to analysts in Kowall et al. (2025) seems less ambiguous: Does marital status influence the incidence of cardiovascular disease? But less ambiguous does not equal unambiguous. Considerable...
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
España es de los países con la tasa más baja, pero Singapur, Hong Kong y Corea del Sur están por debajo del bebé por mujer. ourworldindata.org/grapher/chil...
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨 What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description? We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers. Two main contributions... 🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
tinyurl.com
good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description
Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
“I’ll just run this last robustness check and then the paper will be finished...”
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Dr. Dominic Royé @drxeo.eu · 05/05/2025
[🆕RESEARCH] Increasing vegetation cover by 10%, 20%, and 30% could lower the global population-weighted mean temperature during the #warm season. These reductions could prevent approximately 0.86, 1.02, and 1.16 million deaths—corresponding to 27.16%, 32.22%, and 36.66% of all heat-related deaths.
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DemoSoc UPF @demosocupf.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
🔔 Call for Interest 🔔 – UPF DemoSoc is looking for senior researchers to join through Spain’s ATRAE 2025 programme. PhD before 01/01/2018 required. 3–4 year contract + long-term stabilization. If you are interested, send an email to: jorge.rodriguez@upf.edu. Deadline to express interest: May 9.
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
My colleague Cristobal Young and co-author Erin Cumberworth just released their book on multiverse analysis, a set of tools that help resolve the "garden of forking paths" and "file-drawer" problems and, in the process, improve quantitative social & behavioral science. Highly recommend.
Book jacket for Multiverse Analysis: Computational Methods for Robust Results by Cristobal Young and Erin Cumberworth.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
If you presented work related to climate or the environment at @popassocamerica.bsky.social , self-promote and join the list!
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment. Reply or like this post to be added. Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible. go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Added. Thanks Clark! I'm relatively new to the field so I appreciate any suggestions.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment. Reply or like this post to be added. Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible. go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
I was thinking about this, especially after meeting so many cool people doing amazing env demography work at PAA. I'll give it a try!
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Hi. Could I added to the list? Thanks :)!
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Michael Friendly @datavisfriendly.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
📊 #psy6135 #rstats Today's topic: Visualizing Uncertainty Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ... Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from. 💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
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Tim Feeney @tfeend.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...
media.tenor.com
Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF
ALT: Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/03/2025
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words! If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance. www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.
Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...
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Jonathan Magnolia Gilligan @jmgilligan.org · 12/03/2025
Delighted to share a new publication, with the amazing @kelseabest.bsky.social & Bishawjit Mallick, using pattern-oriented agent-based modeling to explore the importance of economic inequality in determining patterns of environmentally-driven migration in Bangladesh. www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Economic inequality is a crucial determinant of observed patterns of environmental migration - Communications Earth & Environment
Levels of inequality within a community are important contributors to community-level patterns of migration, according simulations with an agent-based model of the influence of environmental shocks, l...
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 19/02/2025
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork} www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
andrewheiss.com
How to use a histogram as a legend in {ggplot2} | Andrew Heiss
Land isn’t unemployed—people are. Here’s how to use R, {ggplot2}, {sf}, and {patchwork} to create a histogram legend in a choropleth map to better see the distribution of values.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Our Super Bowl plan is watching American Psycho and eating eggplant parmigiana.
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Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia @fjbeltrantapia.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
The sex ratio at birth in Spain reached very high values (above 108-109 boys per hundred girls) in the early 1980s before returning to normal values at the end of the decade. Why?
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Daron Acemoglu @dacemoglumit.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
A summary of my thinking on shared prosperity, work and AI in ten bullet points.
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
These curves describe the relationship between longevity and income in U.S. states. Historically these curves have shifted up. In the U.S., the 2019 curve lies *fully below* the 2010. That is shocking. Whatever we are doing now may only entrench this concerning pattern. #medsky #episky #econsky
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Totally! @clarklgray.bsky.social 's work is a great example of this. He linked his syllabus on my post if you're curious.
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Thank you so much for these
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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Found your syllabus this morning. Love the emphasis on vulnerability.
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