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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar

@alexvhj.bsky.social
1.9K followers 1.6K following 127 posts

Democratic pollster. Survey methods and data at GSG. PoliSci PhD. Also loves dogs, cats, soccer, d&d

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Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
If you’re watching the polls, just remember: 1. No one knows the direction of future polling error 2. An electoral wave won’t necessarily be uniformly distributed
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
but it does always crack me up when people outside the field start in with "do pollsters ever worry about..." because the answer is almost invariably "yes" and quite often additionally "would you like to see the task force report"
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

    97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).
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John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 28/09/2026
I guess you don't get where he is without whatever competitive sickness makes you want to rub it in the face of random shit talking fans in Columbus Ohio but Messi in MLS is so funny
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Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The masculinity politics beat continues to be very necessary. goodauthority.substack.com/p/republican...
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lilli 🤠 @lillianbf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Wow she has super powers
Trinity Rodman through the worlds most fucked camera courtesy of ESPN
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
If you’re watching the polls, just remember: 1. No one knows the direction of future polling error 2. An electoral wave won’t necessarily be uniformly distributed
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Somehow, Schelling returned
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
new likert just dropped
CHEESE LEVEL (CHOOSE 1):
1 required
Regular
+$0.00
Light
+$0.00
None
+$0.00
Extra Cheese
+$1.00
Add Fresh Mozzarella Slices
+$1.00
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Survey 160 has job descriptions up for for two business development roles, a business development manager and a business development associate. The job listings are below, but I want to highlight two things about these roles. www.survey160.com/business-dev... www.survey160.com/business-dev...
survey160.com
Business Development Manager — Survey 160
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Jeff Rueter @jeffrueter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I hope, at some point, Folarin Balogun can just have a normal day soon.
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
It is I, the broken record, once again - very few young men are doing this. Virtually none of them say this alpha-bro shit holds any weight to them. The dumbest stuff gets a lot of press attention and meanwhile most dudes just have pretty normal life goals static1.squarespace.com/static/68262...
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
To be clear this kind of shit doesn't scare pollsters. If he wanted to scare pollsters this post would say WHY DOES THE CHART SAY 44 BUT THE PDF SAYS 42 and then refusing to elaborate further
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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
My theory is that if you take an impulsive leader loosely tethered to reality, replace the policymaking process with sycophants and strivers who tell him how brilliant and popular he is, and cede every institutional check on his power, a bunch of ill-advised and inexplicable stuff will happen.
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Seth Vertelney @svertelney.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
went to the Spirit game today and my main takeaway is that Mélissa Bethi absolutely cooked on her debut. Spirit have a real player on their hands
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Kane (Minkmoding) @kanexan.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
It is significantly better to live in a world where the US’ soft power and influence is spent on giving vaccines and blood plasma to other countries to build good will, instead of what is essentially violent harassment and exploitation of everyone who has ever even remotely trusted us for anything.
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Ah fuck, we've polling America's top issues and concerns for decades and amidst all the wars, the economy, the budget, civil liberties, corruption, our republican form of government itself, we forgot to include "One of the Great Lakes has the wrong name"
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Very interesting report. Very different than what we’ve seen. I bet there’s a lot variation of variation by panel vendor, among other things.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
a wikipedia page with 17 sections, none of which are "controversy" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolly_P...
Contents:

Early life

Music career

Public image

Artistry

Other ventures

Personal life

Death

Philanthropy

Awards and honors

Discography

Filmography

Published works

See also

References

Bibliography

Further reading

External links
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
you can't spell "democracy" without "emo," and no, I have no idea where I'm going with this either
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Wrote about this kind of predicament with @tesler.bsky.social several years ago at fivethirtyeight: “Why racist white voters often favor Black republicans”: web.archive.org/web/20211110... In searching for this, turns out I missed the backlash the piece received! www.foxnews.com/media/abc-ne...
web.archive.org
Why Racist White Voters Often Favor Black Republicans
Can white voters who back a Black candidate still hold racist beliefs and views? That question has come to the fore in the wake of Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatoria…
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Yu-Ming Liou @yumingliou.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Educational polarization and the culture war means tons of seemingly-unrelated behavior starts clustering around “conscientiousness”
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
sunset in DC getting any earlier than 8 PM is democratic backsliding
Sunset is at 8 pm in DC. It must not be allowed to progress further.
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 14/08/2026
now this is a hell of sentence: "A recommender that’s a mediocre predictor of what you’d love in a rich, diverse world becomes an excellent predictor of what you’ll click in the impoverished one it creates." laurenleek.substack.com/p/temperatur...
laurenleek.substack.com
Temperature Zero for Culture: Why Everything Is Starting to Look the Same
What 640 London shopping streets, 4,000 Billboard hits, a million films and synthetic AI personas tell us about why everything is flattening into sameness and how to regulate the algorithms behind it.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
[Intro level] Democracy is really good, actually. [Slightly less intro level] Political parties are really good, actually.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Another new, useful paper on the potential biasing effects of measuring attitudes pre-treatment in survey experiments, this one focused on racial attitudes. Finds no bias from pre-treatment measures in two of three racial attitude measurement strategies www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
New POQ by Huang and Hartman on sensitivity analysis for survey weighting designs: academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Latest @EquisResearch memo on the state of play with Latino voters after the ‘25 elections, a level-set after the NJ/VA/CA swings, featuring new polling www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
weareequis.us
Latino State of Play: 2025 Elections and New Equis Polling | Equis Research
Survey conducted 10/15 – 10/29 via phones and text-to-web with 2000 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally. The sample included an oversample in the following pooled competiti...
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Do more polls.
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Useful piece from Equis folks on the persuasion + mobilization intersection as important for understanding 2020 --> 2024 Latino electoral behavior. thenewdynamic.weareequis.us/p/a-change-o...
thenewdynamic.weareequis.us
A change of minds
Persuasion drove Trump’s Latino gains — and demands we think differently about the space between support and turnout.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
⭐ And in Vermont, leader of the Vermont Afghan Alliance and former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray won a hard-fought primary. Now she's looking to flip the LG's seat by taking on Republican John Rodgers.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
⭐We are also looking forward to working with CT Comptroller Sean Scanlon, Rep. Jim Himes (CT-04), and State Senate candidate Jill Oberlander (SD-36) in the general election – who all secured their nominations without a primary.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
⭐We were excited to have worked with the Bench IE, which backed former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin (CT-01) who decisively won his Democratic primary.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
⭐ In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont secured the Democratic nomination for a third term. He'll now run alongside Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz, who was unopposed for renomination, as the two look to win in November.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Another night of primaries is in the books, and our clients had plenty of moments worth celebrating. ⭐ In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley pulled off a remarkable come-from-behind victory to win Wisconsin’s Democratic nomination for governor.
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
One reason primary polling is hard is knowing who participates is hard. Another is the ideological coherence and candidate loyalty of primary voters is vastly overstated. Interested in survey and interview data on both? Consider pre-ordering Parties on the Ground! www.amazon.com/Parties-Grou...
amazon.com
Parties on the Ground: A Study of Nominations for the House of Representatives (Chicago Studies in American Politics)
Parties on the Ground: A Study of Nominations for the House of Representatives (Chicago Studies in American Politics) [Bawn, Kathleen, Brown, Knox, Ocampo, Angela X., Patterson Jr., Shawn, Ray, John L., Zaller, John] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Parties on the Ground: A Study of Nominations for the House of Representatives (Chicago Studies in American Politics)
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Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The thing about primary polling is you can’t actually predict to a greater degree of certainty than the voters have themselves. Who will these people decide on is a really different question than which of these people will decide to vote.
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GSG Political @gsgpolitical.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
A big night for our friends across the country last night! The wins include...
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Ben Rosen @benrosen.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
i know votes are still being counted but the more i look at this michigan senate map the more it becomes clear that it kind of looks like a mitten
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
i don't know why everyone keeps calling them "data centers" instead of "medians"
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Interesting use of my work in a new paper. Authors use well-established finding that ideology is weaker predictor of party id among Black Ams than among White Ams as benchmark for sample quality. Representative samples recover that pattern. Less rep. samples do not. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Screenshot from the supplemental materials of a research paper. The text explains that the authors use established findings from probability samples as benchmarks for sample quality, including the weaker relationship between political ideology and party identification among Black Americans than among White Americans. Below, three scatterplots compare representative and nonrepresentative samples. In the representative samples, the Black trend line is much flatter than the White trend line. In the nonrepresentative sample, the two trend lines are much more similar, suggesting the distinctive racial difference is not recovered.
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Micah @rincewind.run · 25/07/2026
during the next Dem administration at some point there is going to be a multi-week CORRUPTION meltdown by the press over something worth a few thousand dollars and I am going to become the Joker
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The University of Chicago Press held its launch meeting for my book today. Respectability Politics will be out Summer 2027, with a cover featuring original letterpress work by the artist Amos Kennedy, Jr. whose work I greatly admire! So excited to share this book with y’all. I’m really proud of it.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Deportation policy is a good example of this. Late '24 polling found that hypothetical support for mass deportation waned when the q mentioned detention centers, deporting longtime residents w/o records, etc. This ended up accurately reflecting how the issue played out. www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/p...
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Oli @oliaworth96.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
This again
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
No hell too hot. www.sunjournal.com/2026/07/13/i...
The little girl was still in Bluey pajamas.

No older than 3, she was trying to smell the flowers.

At her side, a pink rolling bag.

Her father, Joan Sebastian Guerrero, had just been fatally shot and yanked from a car he’d been driving. Now, he lay handcuffed in the street, where he would remain for five hours.

 “You took her dad, you took her dad!” a woman nearby yelled, according to Cecelia Humiston, 22, who witnessed the interaction in Biddeford on Monday morning.
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Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
It didn't work out today, but Haaland is still likely to win in November
Deb Haaland, Democratic nominee for governor in New Mexico
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Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Regarding Platner and this whole current *~*situation*~* of Dems hunting for candidates, I repost this one more time. open.substack.com/pub/danielle...
open.substack.com
When "authenticity" means "dudes"
As 2026 approaches, can we political reporters please not forget every damn thing we learned just last year for the love of God
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
this is exactly the situation
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