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Adam Smith

@adambikewrench.bsky.social
737 followers 1.1K following 964 posts

Defence / History / Oceania / Wargaming Former 8541, messenger, bikewrench and backcountry safety analyst Massey CDSS alum

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Reposted by Adam Smith
Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 11h
I have written an overview for @navalnews.com discussing the F-35C ACT now underway on PCU John F Kennedy (CVN-79) in the wider context of getting the new carriers operational among both domestic pushback and international developments (ie PLAN). www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
F-35C Commences Testing On Ford-class carrier John F Kennedy
The US Navy has begun F-35C flight testing aboard the PCU John F. Kennedy (CVN-79), marking a major milestone for Ford-class aircraft carrier integration.
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los 🦦 @los-los.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
•filming Halloween• Michael Myers: LINE
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Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Here’s LL Cool J trying to explain Clausewitz’s “remarkable trinity” to an uncomprehending Joe Rogan
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Grant Snider @grantdraws.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
What's on your bookshelf this weekend?
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
End of the day this is primarily another example of how governments and services ideally get much better explaining operational rationales to the public. But from an institutional POV this remains a low priority, not just in NZ. Institutions rather just get on with it & ignore public talking points.
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WaterBluSky 🇺🇸 🌻 🇺🇦 @waterblusky.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Cloudfare: Russian troll activity on X drops to 49%, after Ukraine strikes Yandex Russian data center. 🤖 🫤 Could this disrupt the midterms for the GOP?
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Newsroom NZ @newsroom.co.nz · 10/10/2026
New Zealand’s frigate choice should focus on capability, adaptability and value for money, not simply buying the same ships as Australia.
newsroom.co.nz
Why NZ’s frigate choice shouldn’t simply follow Australia
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Waitman Wade Beorn, PhD, FRHistS @waitmanwbeorn.com · 10/10/2026
🧵 The Wehrmacht was a CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION responsible for mass crimes against humanity and genocide.🧵 🔥The mother of threads.🔥 Click below for an exhaustive discussion of the criminality of the German Army during WWII as I try to once again kill the cockroach that is the Clean Wehrmacht Myth!
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🛰️🔥 Mike 🌀🌪️ @disastergis.org · 09/10/2026
Absolutely fascinating article about DNA sequencing, Polynesian medical risk factors, and more
civilbeat.org
Who Are Native Hawaiians Most Related To? You May Be Surprised
A new study finds the same waʻa settled both Hawaiʻi and Easter Island, carrying genes that leave some at risk of rare diseases.
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
s a i l d r o n e
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David Leheny @davidleheny.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
I mean, quite aside from the barbarism of live-streaming this, I actually can't think of anything more stupid from a counterterrorism perspective. Showing this online - where it will likely be replayed for many years - has no deterrent value and would be useful only as anti-US recruitment tool.
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Matt Weiner @mattweiner19.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
in mid-september? www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Erik Prince's forces suffer battlefield loss in Congo, former UFC fighter among wounded, sources say
Blackwater founder Erik Prince's forces suffered a major battlefield loss in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in mid-September when enemy forces ambushed them, killing and wounding at ​least 20 pe...
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Tony Stark @tonystark.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
My latest: WarTalk co-host Justin and I took some time to teach you the fundamentals of fighting drones. “Strong and consistent rehearsals are what separate “equipped” soldiers from “trained” soldiers.” open.substack.com/pub/breaking...
open.substack.com
Drones Hate Us
The Secret Guide to Fighting Metal Birds
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Zach @thrustwr.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
A drone cannot hold ground. Soldiers hold ground. But foot soldiers alone cannot break through defenses hundreds of meters thick and layered. Drones can't either. But with tanks, engineering equipment, and other support assets (drones, air defense, counter-drone assets), they can breakthrough.
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Peter Sime @petesi.me · 05/10/2026
#nzpol
The 4 panel meme of a pigeon doing stand-up. The pigeon says, "I'm announcing a new road". An audience member heckles the pigeon saying "Boo. Get better material!" The pigeon, visibly distressed and speechless consults cue cards, which just say "Roads, roads,roads..."
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Jjengar @jjengar.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
DON’T ever forget this. Pass it on: #nzpol
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Jennifer C. Martin @notreallyjcm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Extremely grateful for these two grocery store ladies recreating Prodigy’s Firestarter
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Sam (ABeardedPanda) @abeardedpanda.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
WWII-era OSS shit is so funny because half of it is the blueprints of modern espionage practices and the other half is postgraduates cooking up the whackiest shit imaginable because it might give the nazis a bad time
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Adam Smith @adambikewrench.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Playing around with New Zealand’s requirements for frigate replacements. The presented arguments are hard for lay people to appreciate. The arguments that I’ve seen are also incomplete.
Annotated maps, atlases, printed articles and a notebook layer out in an old stained coffee table
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Malcolm RF 💚🇳🇿 @p-no-nwa.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Whole buncha popo heading along Dixon St
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The Spaceshipper 🚀 @thespaceshipper.com · 01/10/2026
Here comes the first part of a new series of articles published on my Patreon: The design and making of ALL the spaceships in the Alien saga, starting with those from the very first movie: the Nostromo, the Narcissus, and the Derelict. This first article is open to everyone. Enjoy!
patreon.com
All the spaceships in the Alien universe #1: Alien (1979) | The Spaceshipper
Following the modest success of the article on the spaceships in For All Mankind, I spent the week combing through every book in my sci-fi l
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thinkingbayonet.bsky.social @thinkingbayonet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Gentile doesn't miss
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Dread Pirate Sex Badger @badgercult.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Historically creating a warrior caste, completely separate from society, hasn't gone well.
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Maritime RSS @shipbot.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OPINION | A welcome wildcat? Austal, AUKUS and an ownership mud wrestle Baird Maritime · 29 Sep 2026 #Shipbuilding
bairdmaritime.com
OPINION | A welcome wildcat? Austal, AUKUS and an ownership mud wrestle
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 29/09/2026
Ukraine’s Alter Ego unit of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade completed its first logistics mission using an amphibious UGV. The vehicle covered more than 40 km across land and water, switching to amphibious mode within seconds to deliver ammunition and supplies. #Ukraine
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Interestingly this mass surrender of russians includes officers, drone operators and artillery guys. Meaning Ukraine pushed through to russian rare areas. One time cauldron calls were actually correct.
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GreenLeft Network 🍉 @nzgreenleft.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
gOvErNmEnTs HaVe MoRtGaGeS tOo No they bloody don't Mr Seymour. What bank has the power to foreclose the New Zealand Government and Public Sector? And why would they need to, when you're happily cutting up the Public Sector for the Private Sector to gobble up? #nzpol
Excerpt from 1news's live election coverage:

"'Governments have mortgages too': Seymour warns on debt

ACT leader David Seymour says the only thing worse than the current state of the books would be a Labour government running them, warning Kiwis "can't afford to relax" about debt."
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Rick Herrera @herreramilhist.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Just published and available for download @smh-historians.bsky.social ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
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Hupple’s Cat @hupplescat.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Colliers and coaling stations get no love, and don’t get me going on advanced bases… Sexy.
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Denise @denisest.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Labour has just shown off their new mobile billboard on FB. #nzpol
Labour Party mobile billboard reading "Cry me a river" with Luxon's face on it
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Whakamataku - Toitū Te Tiriti 🍉 @whakamataku.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This is GOLD!!! Ngā mihi nui @abelsteve.bsky.social Ka whawhai tonu mātou AKE! AKE! AKE! #nzpol
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Hupple’s Cat @hupplescat.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
For #PhantomPhriday, VMFA-314 BLACK KNIGHTS is in the spotlight. “In 1961, the squadron became the first Marine squadron to transition to the new F-4B Phantom II and was designated VMFA-314. Between 1961 and 1964, the squadron deployed eight times.”
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Zach Ota @zachota.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A few of us happened to write about modernizing MEUs with unmanned capabilities before it became an operational imperative: www.usni.org/magazines/pr...
usni.org
Reimagine the Role of Amphibious Forces in Campaigning
ARG/MEUs and stand-in forces must become more complementary.
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Hupple’s Cat @hupplescat.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“So it won’t be surprising if these vessels and the Marines aboard them quickly become staples in the Pentagon’s USV playbook.” BZ Marines!
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Tom Egan @tomjmegan.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
🚨 #FestiveTankChallenge2026 🚨 Warning Order! Folks, 2026 #FestiveTankChallenge is the StuG. ANY scale & variant - completed between 21st-31st Dec 2026. Here’s my kit - 1/48 Tamiya Sturmgeschütz III Ausf.G Hope you get involved - stash those kits! #Wargaming #Scalemodels
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Ian TB @iantb.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Yeah. But how many of those FOGOs who got canned for being non-white/non-male looked around at their peers, people they’d probably gone to war with, spent time with each others families, and saw them look away and sit on their hands? How much institutional damage does that do?
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#BruceSterling @bruces.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
*Some clown has built an entire "glass jar" full of fruitfly brains; the flies speculate in blockchain crypto, generate bad drum-n-bass music, etc *I'll be pleasantly surprised if this flybrain fad has any practical application whatsoever flyrooms.net
flyrooms.net
Flyrooms
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Patrick Wyman @patrickwyman.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I've spent a lot of years studying a lot of collapses, and the truth of the matter is that they're always mundane: mild climatic shifts that reduce crop yields, a dumbass in power who makes some terrible decisions, neglecting things that obviously matter but the will to fix them can't be summoned.
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B. A. Friedman @bafriedman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Been anxiously waiting for this to go public. As someone who was involved in early EABO wargames and analysis (even before it was called EABO), it’s extremely gratifying to see an idea come to life and work in the real world even many years later. www.twz.com/sea/usmc-use...
twz.com
USMC Used Its Expeditionary Operations Playbook In Combat For First Time During Epic Fury
The USMC set up remote forward refueling and rearming points for F-35Bs and other aircraft, as well as sensing locations during the war with Iran.
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Adam Smith @adambikewrench.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Anyone on here have a review of 1942: Crux of War yet? Dare I get a hardcover ? Does the Kobo version do justice to the maps? 1942: Crux of War share.google/cWssIqQjh6g3...
share.google
Google Search
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Julie Anne Genter @julieannegenter.greens.org.nz · 17/09/2026
Just leaving this here.
Screen shot of post article with headline “Poll: Chlöe Swarbrick beats Nicola Willis in Economy as voters sceptical of growth plan”. Image photo of Chlöe Swarbrick, Barbara Edmonds and Nicola Willis on a panel.
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Hupple’s Cat @hupplescat.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
@adambikewrench.bsky.social This is the article I was thinking of in response to your suggestion. Making Do with Fewer Amphibs www.usni.org/magazines/pr...
usni.org
Making Do with Fewer Amphibs
Embark mini-MEUs on smaller ships to fill deployment gaps and enhance operational versatility.
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Adam Smith @adambikewrench.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Just to throw into the world wide frigate discussion... Has anyone given much thought to a 21st century 'APD'? Could the LCSs or ANZACs fulfill such a role, if maintaining was cost effective. I myself may have drunk quite a bit of Kool-aid but it seems workable to me. #FD2030 #Frigate #Navy #Amphib
USS Barr (APD-39) (ex-DE-576) shown after conversion to Auxiliary High Speed Transport.
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Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
it's astounding how much anduril just does not know the first fucking thing about what their customer actually needs, only rivaled by the fact that their customer keeps letting them get away with it YFQ-44A Fury Has Been Fit Checked With Air-To-Ground Munitions share.google/aO4hITW3jyAr...
share.google
YFQ-44A Fury Has Been Fit Checked With Air-To-Ground Munitions
New imagery highlights potential air-to-ground weapons integration on Fury, pointing to the possibility of a broader strike capability for production FQ-44s. New imagery highlights air-to-ground weapo...
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Euronews @euronews.com · 15/09/2026
Despite recent breakthroughs mapping the lunar surface to analyse the feasibility of building lunar cities, a new study pours cold water on the prospect of permanent colonisation. ➡️ l.euronews.com/H1Sd
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Mark Douglas @maritimekiwi.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
From @aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/202...
aljazeera.com
Rescuers search for 140 people after Indonesian passenger ship sinks
Search and rescue ongoing after Virgo Transport 8, with 243 people on board, lost contact with its operator.
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Maritime RSS @shipbot.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
One dead, more than 30 missing after Vanuatu ferry sinks Baird Maritime · 13 Sep 2026
bairdmaritime.com
One dead, more than 30 missing after Vanuatu ferry sinks
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Monthly Halloween 🎃 @abcbtommi.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
My escape from the suffocating 9/11 forced groupthink in Texas was of course Get Your War On, which should be taught in the history books. It was the secret comic calling everything you knew was stupid, stupid.
Oh my god, this war on terrorism is gonna rule! I can't wait until the war on over and there's no more terrorism!
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Adam Smith @adambikewrench.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Somewhat AWOL Kiwis from 2019, Echo Ohs... www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0fk...
youtube.com
Echo Ohs - Wild Weeds
YouTube video by Yolanda Fagan
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