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Alex Luck

@alxluck.bsky.social
10K followers 584 following 3.3K posts

Chinese Military. Bundeswehr/NATO. MA Pol Sci/History. Cats, dogs, motorcycles. Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten. Analysis@ NavalNews.com. Contributor@ hartpunkt.de. Previous articles at FPRI.org.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Colby has dubbed the effort NATO 3.0." Not sure what happened to NATO 2.0, but presumably this new version includes just telling your allies one thing today and the polar opposite tomorrow. 🙃 www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
US and Poland near deal for American base with 10,000 troops
The Polish foreign minister announced the effort Thursday, despite a previous Trump administration threat to pull troops from the country.
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Reposted by Alex Luck
Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 24/09/2026
A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to temporarily lift a White House ban on journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico. Read more: bloom.bg/3VNV8U7 📷️: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
C-130J und P-8A, beide ueber FMS-"Knebelvertrag" beschafft, gingen puenktlich und ohne dramatische Mehrkosten in den Bundeswehr-Betrieb. Bei nationalen/Euro-Beschaffungen quasi nie der Fall. Wird in der "Recherche" kurioserweise mit keiner Silbe erwaehnt. www.zdfheute.de/politik/f-35...
zdfheute.de
US-Rüstungsdeals: Teure Knebelverträge für die Bundeswehr
Deutschland kauft Kampfjets in den USA. Die vertraulichen Kaufverträge zeigen: Deutschland liefert sich noch mehr der Trump-Administration aus.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
For the first time in the history of the German Navy a female CO will take command of a frigate. Frigate captain/FKpt/Commander Ute Niklas is now CO of F125 frigate Rheinland-Pfalz (F225), taking over from previous CO Benedikt Eichhorn. Images German Navy/Wikipedia.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Immer mal schoen, in den etablierten deutschen Medien namentlich erwaehnt zu werden, wie hier bei "Focus", auch wenn es prinzipiell die Wiedergabe des @twz.com-Artikels ist. Generell auch erfreulich, dass das Thema PLAN aufgegriffen wird, weil weiterhin unterbeleuchtet. www.focus.de/politik/ausl...
focus.de
Neue Satellitenbilder aus Huludao bestätigen erstmals den Pumpjet-Antrieb eines mutmaßlichen chinesischen Atom-U-Boots des Typs 095
Neue Satellitenaufnahmen aus Huludao zeigen erstmals deutlich den Pumpjet-Antrieb und das X-förmige Heck eines mutmaßlichen chinesischen Atom-U-Boots.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
"...a wider 2027 defense budget proposal totaling approximately 8.07 trillion Argentine pesos (roughly $5.3 billion) (...) remains outpaced by domestic inflation recorded between budget cycles." The glass remains near empty for Argentinian defence deals. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Argentina Eyes New Submarines and Frigates
Argentina plans to acquire three submarines and two frigates under its 2027 budget, aiming to rebuild critical capabilities and secure financing.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Wichtiger Diskussionsbeitrag von @frhoffmann.bsky.social. Hinzuzufuegen waere auch noch, dass die kostenguenstigen Systeme von "Start Ups" erst am Anfang einer Entwicklung stehen, die bisher auch gewisse supply chain-Abhaengigkeiten IMO ungenuegend beruecksichtigt. www.hartpunkt.de/nicht-entwed...
hartpunkt.de
Nicht entweder-oder: warum moderne Deep-Strike-Arsenale verschiedene Flugkörperklassen brauchen
Am 17. August vergab die US-Marine an Raytheon einen Auftrag im Wert von 22,9 Milliarden US-Dollar mit einer Laufzeit von sieben Jahren, um die Produktion der von Schiffen und U-Booten abgefeuerten To...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Just when I put up this thread, @twz.com added a new image in their reporting, which all but confirms this is indeed a Type 095A (ie the longer variant). It also has a new detail on the bow which may well be the actual VLS on this design. TBC. www.twz.com/sea/chinese-...
twz.com
Chinese Next-Generation Submarine Developments Spotted In New Satellite Imagery
A Chinese submarine now taking shape at Bohai Shipyard has a number of significant features and offers new insights into China's undersea ambitions.
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Reposted by Alex Luck
Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Bisher keine Stadt gesehen, wo #Solaranlagen so verbreitet sind wie in #Damaskus; dort wurden sie in den Kriegsjahren wichtiger Baustein zur energetischen Resilienz.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
We have a new image, courtesy of Janes, of a recently produced next generation SSN in drydock at Bohai (paywalled link to article below). A few remarks on what the image tells us, and more notably, what it does not. www.janes.com/defence-inte...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"...people will remain essential where warfare demands contextual judgment, intuition, interaction with civilians and accountability for life-and-death decisions." Which arguably affects larger parts of warfare than often appreciated in drone-discourse. www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-only-rob...
aspistrategist.org.au
Not only robots: warfare will still need humans | The Strategist
Future warfare won’t be entirely robotic. Yes, people will gradually disappear from battlefield environments where speed, endurance, distance, precision or physical danger overwhelmingly favour use of...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
A little bit of promotion for the new "feature" segment at @navalnews.com. I'm very enthusiastic about this addition, as it provides a more dedicated space for long(er) form analysis that doesnt chase day to day events, but rather looks at the big picture. www.navalnews.com/category/fea...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Another illustration of the move away from smaller FAC to larger missile corvettes filling the same basic requirement. Of course a case can be made that the Veer-class NGMV replaces was technically already a (small)( corvette (Pr 1241/Tarantul-variant). www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Cochin Shipyard Lays Keel for Indian Navy's First NGMV - Naval News
Cochin Shipyard has laid the keel for the Indian Navy's first Next Generation Missile Vessel (NGMV), marking a major milestone for the stealth corvette program.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
China's bemerkenswerter Aufstieg zu einem der innovativsten Entwickler fuer Kampfflugzeuge der naechsten Generation ist in Europa & Deutschland weiterhin unterbeleuchtet. Fuer @hartpunkt.bsky.social habe ich mal den aktuellen Stand aufgearbeitet. www.hartpunkt.de/mit-vollem-s...
hartpunkt.de
Mit vollem Schub in die Zukunft – chinesische Kampfflugzeuge der nächsten Generation
Weltweit gewinnen die Bemühungen von Luftstreitkräften zur Entwicklung von Kampfflugzeugen der nächsten Generation an Dynamik.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Unsurprisingly, given my track record, I disagree with the view that vessels like Sea Archer are useful for Australian naval requirements. There is a reason industry procudes these designs on their own coin. They are cheap & rather low performance. www.aspistrategist.org.au/industry-is-...
aspistrategist.org.au
Industry is building the capability and industrial base northern Australia needs | The Strategist
Last week in Darwin, I saw an example of what Australia needs more of: industry investing in sovereign capability before Defence has written the requirement or issued a tender. I watched Leidos’s Aust...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It was near inevitable to happen, but the second new very large AOR for PLAN is in an advanced stage of assembly now at COMEC Guangzhou. The first hull (3rd pic) was recently launched and is presently fitting out. All images via @type36512.bsky.social/KAROTASU), X.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
JMSDF P-1 are suffering from very low availability rates caused by the small fleet in operation combined with rising costs stocking spare parts due to global supply chain issues. Meanwhile, the service cannibalizes some airframes to keep others flying. news.ntv.co.jp/category/pol...
news.ntv.co.jp
【独自】働けない海自哨戒機、任務につける機体は概ね2割~3割(2026年9月19日掲載)|日テレNEWS NNN
日本周辺で警戒監視にあたる海上自衛隊の哨戒機P-1。去年、会計検査院の調査で可動状況が低調であると指摘されたが、この割合がいまだに低迷していることが関係者への取材でわかった。
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Reposted by Alex Luck
Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Courtesy of a commission for the Gulf Defence Industry Initiative (GDII) I have written a brief analysis via @navalnews.com regarding Pakistan's Hangor-class submarines, and related operational and industrial implications for Islamabad. www.navalnews.com/features/202...
navalnews.com
Pakistan's Hangor-Class And Naval Strategic Sovereignty
An outline of how Pakistan's acquisition of the Chinese Hangor-class submarines will evolve operational posture and strategic sovereignty.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Flawed intelligence reports of course aren't exactly new. That said, AI writing "assistance" continues to greatly muddy the waters. Its easy enough to recognize outraegous claims. More challenging IMO is the increasing devaluation of secondary sourcing. edition.cnn.com/2026/09/18/p...
edition.cnn.com
Exclusive: US military had close call after using AI for false intelligence report, sources say | CNN Politics
The episode shows the risks of using this new, relatively poorly understood technology in the middle of the Iran war
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A shipment of F-35 parts incl worn out canopies on transfer from Australia to the US accidentally ended up in Hong Kong. As usual I'd suggest Hanlon's razor applies. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
Hill investigates after F-35 parts diverted to Hong Kong
The incident raises the possibility that top secret weapons technology may have been exposed to a foreign adversary — including China.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Kritik an der ueblichen Abhaengigkeit von US-Systemen fuer F127 ist vollkommen nachvollziehbar. Allerdings ist zu sagen, dass: - Die Alternative Israel genauso Abhaenigkeiten von den USA beinhaltet. - Nationale Eigengaenge teuer sind & sehr lang dauern. www.hartpunkt.de/f127-starker...
hartpunkt.de
F127: Starker Fokus auf US-Technologie ist nicht mehr zeitgemäß
Die zukünftigen Luftverteidigungsfregatten der Klasse 127 der Deutschen Marine sollen nicht nur zur Verbandsflugabwehr, sondern auch zur noch anspruchsvolleren Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) befähigt...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The primary reason why these regularly talked about draw-downs are IMO a non starter is that the present US admin lacks the basic institutional competency to relocate these troops, including within CONUS. www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...
nbcnews.com
Trump administration weighs drastic cut to U.S. forces in Europe of 25,000 or more
The potentially drastic drawdown of 25,000 or more U.S. troops comes amid warnings from NATO allies about a growing threat posed by Russia.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
According to @hartpunkt.bsky.social Bundeswehr will initiate the procurement of JSM antiship missiles to arm Marineflieger P-8A before the end of this year. German naval aviation thus would regain fixed wing anti-shipping capability the service lost two decades ago. www.hartpunkt.de/flugkoerperb...
hartpunkt.de
Flugkörperbewaffnung – P-8A Poseidon der Marine soll Ziele mittels Joint Strike Missile auch auf große Entfernung bekämpfen sollen
Die Seefernaufklärer des Typs P-8A Poseidon der Deutschen Marine sollen eine Flugkörperbewaffnung des Typs Joint Strike Missile (JSM) erhalten, um Boden- sowie Überwasserziele auch auf große Entfernun...
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Reposted by Alex Luck
Naval News @handle.invalid · 16/09/2026
[Feature] Implications of the Hangor-class for Pakistan’s operational naval posture and strategic sovereignty 🇵🇰 By @alxluck.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/features/202...
navalnews.com
Pakistan's Hangor-Class And Naval Strategic Souvereignty
An outline of how Pakistan's acquisition of the Chinese Hangor-class submarines will evolve operational posture and strategic sovereignty.
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Reposted by Alex Luck
hartpunkt @hartpunkt.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Der spanische Rüstungskonzern Indra hat auf der Drohnenmesse Unvex in der spanischen Region Murcia einen neuen kostengünstigen Marschflugkörper mit dem Namen SQUALL vorgestellt. www.hartpunkt.de/spanische-in...
hartpunkt.de
Spanische Indra stellt Marschflugkörper SQUALL vor
Der spanische Rüstungskonzern Indra hat auf der Drohnenmesse Unvex in der spanischen Region Murcia einen neuen kostengünstigen Marschflugkörper mit dem Namen SQUALL vorgestellt.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Courtesy of a commission for the Gulf Defence Industry Initiative (GDII) I have written a brief analysis via @navalnews.com regarding Pakistan's Hangor-class submarines, and related operational and industrial implications for Islamabad. www.navalnews.com/features/202...
navalnews.com
Pakistan's Hangor-Class And Naval Strategic Sovereignty
An outline of how Pakistan's acquisition of the Chinese Hangor-class submarines will evolve operational posture and strategic sovereignty.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I agree its the most plausible explanation. However, as usual we need to wait and see, how this prediction pans out. In any case a good illustration of Chinese potential to surprise with innovation in shipbuilding.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"Koizumi’s September 11 remarks do not mean Japan has decided to acquire SSNs. But his explicit statement (...) suggests that the issue is moving from a largely theoretical debate toward a concrete defense policy discussion." www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Japan’s Defense Minister: Nuclear-Powered Submarines Will Not Be Ruled Out - Naval News
Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi says nuclear-powered submarines will not be ruled out as Tokyo reviews its key national security documents.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
USN contract for Boeing MQ-25A worth $562 million covering three LRIP 1 airframes and long lead items for three LRIP 2 airframes. Your usual reminder that combat capability, crewed or uncrewed, can either be cheap or high performing, but not both. www.defensenews.com/industry/tec...
defensenews.com
US Navy, Boeing ink first MQ-25A Stingray production contract
The U.S. Navy awarded a $562 million fixed-price incentive contract to Boeing on Monday to start Lot 1 Low Rate Initial Production of the MQ-25A Stingray.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A requirement worth watching. Marine Nationale has adopted a relatively cautious approach on naval drones & far less exuberant rhetoric than certain other foreign services. Here too initial expectations remain IMO modestly ambitious & tied to reality. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
France Launches Procurement for New Embarked Long-Endurance USV - Naval News
The French DGA has launched a formal tender for embarked, long-endurance surface drones to support French Navy ISR missions, but the technical requirements for the USV are quite challenging.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Ein dritter Tanker (trotz der "ueblichen" Probleme im Programm) waere tausendmal sinnvoller. Gibt die Marine ja uebrigens auch seit Jahren als Bedarf an. Aber gut. Ruestungspolitik weiterhin eher Nebenbeschaeftigung in Berlin. 🤷‍♂️ www.hartpunkt.de/bmvg-will-zu...
hartpunkt.de
BMVg will zusätzliches Flottendienstboot beschaffen
Die Bundeswehr soll ein viertes Flottendienstboot für die strategische Aufklärung erhalten, wie Verteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius heute in seiner Rede
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Fuer @hartpunkt.bsky.social hab ich mal den aktuellsten Stand der Dinge bei JASSM-ER und LRASM in Australien dokumentiert. www.hartpunkt.de/australische...
hartpunkt.de
Australische P-8A Poseidon erreichen Anfangsbefähigung für weitreichende Seezielbekämpfung
Das Waffensystem P-8A Poseidon der australischen Luftwaffe hat eine Anfangsbefähigung bei der Bekämpfung von Seezielen aus großer Entfernung mittels LRASM-Flugkörper (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) err...
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Reposted by Alex Luck
Naval News @handle.invalid · 14/09/2026
The RAAF announced Initial Operational Capability for two new air-launched, long-ranged anti-ship and land attack-missiles 🇦🇺🦘 With comments by @alxluck.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Australian Air Force Declares IOC For LRASM, JASSM
The RAAF announced Initial Operational Capability for two new air-launched, long-ranged anti-ship and land attack-missiles.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
"Sammur’s relief follows an investigation into a maintenance issue, a Submarine Forces Public Affairs spokesperson told USNI News on Monday. West Virginia is currently in port for maintenance, according to the Navy’s Saturday news release." news.usni.org/2026/08/03/n...
news.usni.org
Navy Relieves Commander of Sub USS West Virginia - USNI News
Cmdr. Joseph Sammur was relieved as the commanding officer of USS West Virginia (SSBN-736) (Blue Crew) last week due to a loss of confidence, the Navy announced Saturday. Sammur’s relief follows an in...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
ICYMI: German submarine builder TKMS on July 28 in an extremely low profile "event" in Kiel has handed over INS Drakon, the newest and significantly modified Dolphin II-class SSK to the Israeli Navy. marineforum.online/ins-drakon-u...
marineforum.online
INS Drakon U-Boot – Israel übernimmt letztes Boot der Dolphin-II-Klasse - marineforum
INS Drakon U-Boot: Fast unbemerkt hat TKMS das modernste U-Boot der israelischen Marine ausgeliefert. Die „Drakon“ schließt die Dolphin-II-Klasse ab und weist bereits auf die Dakar-Klasse hin.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Ich habe mich mit Clemens Speer fuer "Sicherheit & Verteidigung" zum Thema Modernisierung der Deutschen Marine unterhalten. Wer sich fuer meine Sichtweise zu F126/F128, Einsatzbereitschaft & detaillierten Herausforderungen interessiert, kann hier reinhoeren: open.spotify.com/episode/3WfY...
open.spotify.com
MEKO A-200 DEU statt F126 – Die richtige Entscheidung? Mit Alex Luck
Sicherheit & Verteidigung · Episode
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
First time the JSDF air-launched variant of Type 25 SSM (AShM, aka "Type 12 Upgraded") is seen in the wild, here on one of the original F-2 double seater prototypes now used for various testing. Image via @AKEBOVO/X.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
The US DoD (*sigh* "DoW") has awarded shipbuilding contracts worth U$ 76.6 bln for construction of five more Columbia-class SSBN (now seven on order) and nine more Virginia-class SSN (Blk VI) covering FY25 to FY29. www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Ich sags mal so. Grundsaetzlich sind Sorgen stets gerechtfertigt, was Bedarfsdefinition & -ausfuehrung angeht. Aber das Niveau, auf dem solche Bedenken formuliert werden, zeigt, warum deutsche Verteidigungspolitik weiterhin eher Hobby als Berufung ist. www.welt.de/politik/deut...
welt.de
F127: Warum jetzt Zweifel an Deutschlands Riesenfregatten-Projekt laut werden - WELT
Bis zu 12.000 Tonnen schwer: Die Regierung plant die Anschaffung der Fregatte 127 – die größer als die Zerstörer anderer Marinen ist. Doch jetzt zeigen sich Haushalts- und Verteidigungspolitiker skept...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Weil jetzt hierzu starke Meinungen kommen nach dem Schema "Wir brauchen so etwas, und nicht zb Tomahawk.", ein paar Randnotizen zu technischen und operativen Aspekten, die derartige Argumente scheinbar ignorieren... 🧵 www.militarytimes.com/news/2026/07...
militarytimes.com
Pentagon calls for cheaper long-range strike weapons, with testing in just 3 months
The Pentagon is seeking long-range weapons that cost less than $250,000 each and can be ready for demonstration within three months.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
"...the purchase order covers the supply of HY80 steel plate for Virginia-class submarine production. The order represents the first time Australian-made submarine-grade steel will be incorporated into the US Navy's Virginia-class submarine program..." www.navaltoday.com/2026/07/29/a...
navaltoday.com
Australia's Bisalloy to supply submarine-grade steel for US Navy Virginia-class subs
Australian-made submarine-grade steel will be used in the construction of US Navy Virginia-class submarines for the first time after Australian...
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Brief comments by myself via @navalnews.com on the Australian announcement this morning picking Leidos Gibbs & Cox as design lead on a new floating dock for the Henderson Defence Precinct & related AUKUS-requirements. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Australia advances AUKUS with dry dock design appointment
The Australian government has announced the selection of Leidos Gibbs and Cox to design a floating dry dock supporting AUKUS infrastructure.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Another day, another (heavily "cleaned up") image of the new large replenishment ship for PLAN produced at COMEC Guangzhou. I intend to write about it once there's meaningful things to say other than "Whoa, big 'un!". Via "2=GT"/SDF.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Very neat summary by @corporalfrisk.com of where the Polish/Swedish submarine cooperation currently stands. The delivery schedule appears ambitious, considering Sweden only has two boats on order & may need to divert the second hull to Poland to meet deadlines. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Poland’s A26 Submarine Deal: Details on Weapons Package, Interim Boat, and Delivery Schedule
Following Poland’s order for Saab A26 submarines, Naval News breaks down the weapons package, undisclosed missile integration, HMS Södermanland lease, and 2031 delivery timelines.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I have written an outline for @navalnews.com on the Cairncross Dockyard in Brisbane. The Queensland government since 2025 pitches the graving dock as a relatively speedy solution adding meaningful capacity for Australian naval infrastructure requirements. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Cairncross Dockyard Brisbane And Australian Naval Infrastructure
Naval News provides an overview on Queensland government plans revitalising the Cairncross Graving Dock for Australian Defence needs.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
We got a new shot of the recently launched very large new replenishment ship for PLAN, at COMEC in Guangzhou. Image via 琴石2022/Wb.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
New images from Hudong/Changxing, showing side by side construction of two Type 071 LPD and a further yet to be identified large hull in the smaller drydock. Via lyman2003/Wb (highlights not mine).
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Queensland winter how its supposed to be.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
STC PLAGF brigade sealift exercise involving civilian ferry capacity. Images via 琴石2022/Wb.
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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
PLAN Type 055 Dongguan (109) together with Sovremenny-class Hangzhou (136). Both units are assigned to ETC, which only became an 055 operator with the recent commissioning of Dongguan & Anqing (110). Image via 追风少年小白鲨/Wb.
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