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Dustin Jalbert

@2x4caster.bsky.social
2K followers 389 following 684 posts

Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Meant to post this here yesterday. Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall. Check it out! www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
fastmarkets.com
Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? - Fastmarkets
Understand how the 25% tariffs on Canadian goods would impact US lumber markets, and how reliant the US market is on Canadian lumber supply.
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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window. Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?
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Kyle Conway 康有为 @kc-lumberguy.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
First time posting my actual work on Bluesky. I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵 Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
JOLTS: 1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer. We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen. Yours truly also makes a late appearance! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right. All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling. What am I missing?
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Brian Platt @brianplatt.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
BREAKING: US tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days, Trudeau says
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
So what's going on with crypto, you guys?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
So when's he walking it all back? Seems like the next logical question?
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Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Groupings might need to be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Homebuilders are going to be super rattled by these tariffs and knock-on effects in rate markets. Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
On vacation, just seeing this now.
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is sitting at a desk looking at a book .
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting at a desk looking at a book .
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Deacon Lumber sighting in Barbados. Bullish @lumber.trading ?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Every non-Chiefs fan rn: "The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Astounded how little security buying there's been in the lumber market these last few weeks. Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1. That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Ngl, the cryptobois panic setting in on the other site is pretty fun to watch.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Lions cooked.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Don't know how they solve it, but seems like the NFL needs to sort out the rules for QBs rushing. Defender is basically helpless with how low the bar is for personal fouls.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Loooooool...this one gonna tie people in a pretzel.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
No strong convictions on today's report. Lots of crosscurrents and the winter months are volatile. Take this report with a grain of salt, whatever the outcome. Under construction probably the most interesting data point on the state of the multifamily correction.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Housing starts today. I know, I'm excited too...could this be the most important December housing print ever? 🤔 (Probably not but needed to build it up somehow)
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Tough times ahead for Canada...ooof.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
HMI up in January. Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Building material sales though? Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story. Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Truly incredible. We're so back.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Retail sales cookin.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 15/01/2025
Biggest drop in 10y real yields since 2023.
Chart of 1d change in 10y real yields over the last two years.
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Here's a few PPI Inputs for 2024 vs 2023 Concrete Products +6% Paving Mixes +2% Steel Products -8% Lumber/Plywood -2% Gypsum Products +3% Asphalt Roofing/Siding +3% Nonferrous Wire +4% Diesel -15%
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
March lumber futures still getting hammered here.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
if it makes you feel better, this was the visualization when I read that at some point Tariff Man gonna think market is wrong though
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
PPI #inflation: BELOW expectations in Dec despite gas price spike ✅Headline #PPI +0.2% m/m 📉Core +0.1% m/m ✅Goods 0.6% 🍲Food -0.1% ⛽️Energy 3.5% (gas +9.7%) 📊Core 0% ✅Services 0% 🚚Transport 2.2% ⚖️Trade (margins) -0.1% ✅Inflation not reaccelerating (yet)
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
media.tenor.com
a close up of a man with a beard and long hair .
ALT: a close up of a man with a beard and long hair .
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Vikings frauds?
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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
2/ INVENTORY ➡️ Total supply of unsold homes on the market ticked down this week to 624,000. I expect uptick next week ➡️ 24% more homes on the market than last year. ➡️ Only 19% fewer than in 2018. Especially if rates stay elevated, you can see how we'll approach the old normal levels later this year
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Rates + cash basis > Tariff risks for lumber at the moment.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
If you have basic clock management skills in the NFL, you are probably in the top quartile of coaches in the NFL.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Dan Quinn 🤡🤡🤡
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
There are way too many NFL wildcard teams.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
👀
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
Return to tradition for the Chargers amirite.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Matthew McConaughey down horrendous.
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