iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

New Podcast Alert! Real Estate Conversations is where I get to interview the smartest people in the industry to learn from their expertise. Everyone cares about mortgage rates now so episode 1 is with the mortgage rates GOAT, Matt Graham. open.spotify.com/episode/3gXc...

open.spotify.com

Understanding Mortgage Rates Today with Matt Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily

Spotify video

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Doing some work with the Compass data team today. Thought this looked cool

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

Looking at the MBA purchase mortgage applications on a 13-week rolling average really highlights the current trend

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

Such excellent insight and a fascinating story!

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Existing home sales are inching above last year as reported by NAR. In our weekly pending contracts, the slight growth over 2024 continues. Last year the brief mortgage rate dip to 6.1% in September lifted the sales rate for Q4. Will be interesting if we can beat that this year.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

New home sales big print feels like survey noise to me. What would be the sudden catalyst? Existing Home Sales tomorrow from NAR should show YoY gains but nothing in the real-time data says massive shift.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

Why aren't home prices falling like you might expect now? It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited. That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Everyone's talking Fed of course, but the real news of the day may be the new construction data

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

days on market context H/T @mikesimonsen.bsky.social

Title: Days on Market per State — U.S. Median Days for Single-Family Homes

U.S. map with states color-coded and labeled by median days on market (DOM)

Color legend / scale:
Medium blue: 42–49 days
Light blue: 56–63 days
Light red/orange: 70–77 days
Darker red/orange: 84–98 days

State values (selected):
42 days: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin
49 days: Michigan, Massachusetts
56 days: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota, Maine
63 days: Washington, California, North Dakota
70 days: Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
77 days: Oregon, Montana, Texas
84 days: Alabama
91 days: Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi
98 days: Hawaii

Source: Altos Research, Compass; median days on market for single-family homes.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

Three observations that continue to surprise me A) Waymo taxis are just incredible B) Tesla has a long way to catch up C) maga is a deeply decel movement

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Super proud of my former wife Heather, who just raised $20 million for her medical device startup, Boomerang Medical. The company is so cool: Implantable device to stimulate the nerves and control stress-related gut diseases like colitis and IBD. t.co/6iYAA6Ysmw

t.co

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250904154790/en/Boomerang-Medical-Raises-%2420-Million-Series-B-to-Advance-Pivotal-Trial-of-Neuromodulation-in-Inflammatory-Bowel-Disease

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

The Great Stay has us sitting in all jobs longer, and it's true in Big Tech too. Staying in our jobs, staying in our towns, staying in our homes. A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market, and probably vise versa.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

NEW: Home prices are definitely trending lower. Here's that the latest data says. I look at three price measures today. Plus inventory is not growing, but sales are. Thread from my weekly market video for Compass Intelligence. 🧵📽️👇 youtu.be/bqKHOfLCVhQ?... 1/7

youtu.be

Home prices are trending lower Here are this signs to watch.

YouTube video by Compass

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Home prices are about to go negative again. Here's an illustration of what's under way.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

Newsom’s social media is next level

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

When home sellers don't get the offer they want, one option is to withdraw the listing. How much are cancellations effecting the market right now? Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel? Some data:

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

This week in the Compass Intelligence weekly housing market data: Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week? Sellers are staying away. That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year. 1/6

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 26/07/2025

Owner fixing the locks with a hammer on our Virginia AirBnB at 10:30 on Friday night. Real estate is passive income, guys!

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

This interview with Anthropic cofounder Benjamin Mann is really the best, thoughtful insights on AI safety, economic implications, and what’s next that I’ve heard in a long time. open.spotify.com/episode/2dhE...

open.spotify.com

Anthropic co-founder on quitting OpenAI, AGI predictions, $100M talent wars, 20% unemployment, and the nightmare scenarios keeping him up at night | Ben Mann

Lenny's Podcast: Product | Growth | Career · Episode

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 22/07/2025

Two hypotheses from the comments that have potential: 1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere 2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year. Help me answer: Why now?

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

Logan on why we’re *this close* on rates

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

Announcing: Compass Intelligence! Weekly housing market data and video from me in my new role as chief economist for @Compass This week: Two big trends for the real estate market in the second half of 2025. 🧵👇 1/7

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

Well friends, I have a little personal announcement: Today I start a new role as the Chief Economist for Compass. Compass is the biggest real estate brokerage in the country, and it's a super exciting company. I get to resume my housing market data videos very soon!

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FLAVOR FLAV ⏰ @flavorflav.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

*Flavor Flav

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

This surprised me: The MBA Purchase Mortgage Application Index has been up big. Way bigger than home sales have been. Seems "wrong". The Altos weekly pending home sales counts are up just a bit YoY. Seems "right". But plotted together, the alignment is much clearer!

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

This is so wild. www.ft.com/content/90ea... Saylor’s latest strategy for Strategy: selling new shares to pay dividends

ft.com

Saylor’s latest strategy for Strategy: selling new shares to pay dividends

Isn’t there a word for that?

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

wo important observations about the latest mortgage data from FHFA for Q1 2025 1. Every month about 100,000 fewer home owners are locked in to ultra low rates. This implies more inventory in the future. Higher rates means you're more likely to resell. and...

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Senator Slotkin on housing supply and deregulation! A few months ago, I was honored to be asked to help the senator understand the US housing market, its problems and potential solutions so that she could craft the best policy. And now she's leading the charge. Go go go! youtu.be/pbFiKN48UxI?...

youtu.be

Slotkin delivers speech on her Economic War Plan

YouTube video by Sen. Elissa Slotkin

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

This lack of seasonality has been present in the housing market since Covid too. You can see it in seasonally adjusted pricing, sales volumes and inventory.

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M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

As rents continue to rise across the country, they're falling by ~12% to 16% in Jersey City. Why? The city spent 2019 to 2024 on an absolute building tear. Building more housing works. jerseydigs.com/jersey-city-...

jerseydigs.com

After Years of Increases, Study Says Jersey City’s Rents Are Falling | Jersey Digs

A new report says the average rent in Jersey City is falling, with a year-on-year decline in the double digits.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

This really speaks to what incredible financial strength American homeowners have.

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William Shakespeare @shakespeare.lol · 14/06/2025

[Exit King.]

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

Question: Does Houston have "too many" homes for sale? Unsold inventory in Houston is greater than any time since the bubble burst. It's a lot. But Houston also has 35% more people since then(!) When you normalize it, population per inventory, what does it look like?

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

Over 62% of my twitter followers now expect home prices to decline in 2025. That's up from just 28% in January. Fascinating to watch the vibe shifts over the year.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Tariff impact not seen in the jobs data today. Coincidentally I chatted with a CEO friend with a business that imports from Europe. Their orders for June and July are huge - as buyers are just happy to have some clarity, and been delaying purchases for months. Deliveries are bottlenecked tho

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Three charts for the housing market as we roll into June 2025! 1️⃣ Weekly pending home sales are finally reporting gains over 2024. This week's data included the holiday. The weekly pending home sales came in at 68,000. That's 8% more sales than the Memorial Day week last year.

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Logan Mohtashami @loganmohtashami.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

The new home sales sector has its own purchase application data, which is separate from the weekly MBA data, as the builders' data is reported monthly. For May, we are only observing slight growth in existing home sales, which will not be included in this week's existing sales report.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

Well friends, this is my final housing market video for the company I started nearly 20 years ago @AltosResearch But I'll keep writing and discussing the data. I have a new project to announce very soon! This week's housing market data follows below... youtu.be/u3ZiO-EarxA?...

youtu.be

Inventory is back to 2019 levels. Here’s what that means for 2025

YouTube video by Altos

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

Ukraine is in the process of becoming to defense tech what Israel is to cybersecurity. Proud to be an investor in Swarmer! theaircurrent.com/ukraine-spec...

theaircurrent.com

Company Profile: Swarmer

Learn more about Swarmer, one of the companies featured in The Air Current's special report on Ukraine's drone industry

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

Wish there were IPOs anywhere at all

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

I’ve taken Waymos nearly 100 times in San Francisco. I’ve experienced the remote access once. 2am outside a massive Halloween party, on a three lane street, with four lanes of Ubers wedged and a 10’ dragon. A remote driver had to back us up to reorient the car.

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Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

I don’t know about auto insurance, but shelter including rents, are negative now, which seems like they’ll help CPI for many months to come.

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