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Dustin Jalbert

@2x4caster.bsky.social
2K followers 389 following 684 posts

Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Hard to say, but for reference, here's how harvesting has changed on federal lands over the decades. A dramatic drop since the 1990's. Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle. It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Groupings might need to be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Deacon Lumber sighting in Barbados. Bullish @lumber.trading ?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Me when this week if vacation ends:
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
For whatever its worth...via Polymarket. This is just "before March" as well.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Basically this.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Last thought here: a lot of concern about multifamily under construction falling, but it seems important to recognize that single family under construction has basically stabilized. Single family homes have double the floor space of a typical multifamily home and are a bigger source of employment.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Just checked this now, but its also worth noting that sequentially, December was just a better month to build homes in the South and Midwest just looking at precipitation.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Again, I tend to deemphasize these next few months as there's always goofiness in the data, but, still a very encouraging report in the face of a ton of headwinds. Single family trending up despite all the gloom and gloom. Multis have basically bottomed, likely makeup for hurricane disruptions.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Loooooool...this one gonna tie people in a pretzel.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Also appears there's some sort of odd averaging thing going on in FRED with the history stretched far back.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Tough times ahead for Canada...ooof.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
HMI up in January. Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Building material sales though? Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story. Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Truly incredible. We're so back.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
March lumber futures still getting hammered here.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Rates + cash basis > Tariff risks for lumber at the moment.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
There are way too many NFL wildcard teams.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Whoa...business formations? Cranking higher.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Lumber futures didn't love the jobs numbers today.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
~5% on the 10 year is going to lead stuff to breaking. Maybe not in the US, but implications for other global economies via XR channels not great here. Housing going to really struggle get off the mat if we are stuck at 7% mortgage rates this year.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
For perspective on logging employment. Some of this is due to the rise of more mechanized harvesting. But, it's also a story of people leaving a hard and dangerous living. We aren't raising logging supply by 25% to compensate for a loss of Canadian lumber supply overnight. That's for sure.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Me preparing myself to open my inbox tomorrow.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Welp.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Oooooooof.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Labor bargaining power in the industrial economy according to the JOLTS report? Very soft.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Doesn't scream reflation given the current pace of income growth. More downside in core inflation underrated in my humble opinion.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Spread normalization continues for mortgage rates. Bad news is rates are still high, and we don't have too much more downside left to get to the 1.8-2.0% pre-pandemic spread. Not great news for home buyers.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Inventory to sales still very high in the building materials complex according to the US Census data. I think a lot of the deflationary impulse in building materials has run its course, but broad reflation will also be pretty tough too given current LBM inventories.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Real diesel prices below pre-pandemic levels now. Deisel demand globally clearly not super strong. China construction activity a big part of the story.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Wow. Headwind to lumber prices as more Canadian supply getting bailed out by a collapsing Canadian dollar. How long does this last?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Both of these teams stink.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
I think about this chart a lot. Obviously we can have decades above trend and maybe this is one of them. But looking at this makes me question how long we can defy gravity (i.e. demographics, globalization, etc) and how sustainable this current rate environment will be even, barring a recession.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
I know there's still debate whether lock-in effect is real. I think the nuanced answer, which the data seems to bear out, is that for the majority of existing mortgage holders, there's probably no lock in effect, but for the 20-30% who have sub-3.5% mortgages, its absolutely real.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Can see the bounce back in US South sales from October hurricane effects, but little bit more of a mixed for the other Census regions. Again, easy to over interpret the data this time of year, probably going to have to wait a few months to see where demand is as rates change the next few months.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
The good news is the total completed AND under construction really not growing much anymore. But completed share growing rapidly, which further suggests builder margins going to be pressured
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
MoS for reference. Running a little too high for too here. Again though, this can resolve pretty quickly. Level of inventory probably matter more than MoS given how fast demand can shift.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
New home sales did indeed rebound from October based on Monday's report, but pretty underwhelming. Probably a rough few months ahead in the data given rates and mode shift, but, as we've seen in the past, builder sentiment can change quickly as rates change.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
I didn't realize there was a halftime show tonight.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Also A+ stuff. (Bonus content of my cat, Jaq, playing with a new toy in the background...it's Christmas for the pets too 😂🎄😸)
Also A+ stuff

(Bonus content of my cat playing with his new toy in the background...it's Christmas for the pets top 😂🎄😸)
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Absolutely tremendous beer. Dangerous at 10% ABV 😅
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Here's mine!
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Lumber futures bounce the last few days. Not clear what's up here, but cash still very soft.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
You should buy bonds. Rates are gonna correct again.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
I'm cautious here, but inflation sure seems like it has more room to cool from here with this pace of personal income growth.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
FRED really needs a feature to make simple technical indicators, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
True but it has been unseasonably warm in most of the US outside the West, which is basically where the bounce in starts happened in November.
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