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Dustin Jalbert

@2x4caster.bsky.social
2K followers 389 following 684 posts

Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Meant to post this here yesterday. Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall. Check it out! www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
fastmarkets.com
Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? - Fastmarkets
Understand how the 25% tariffs on Canadian goods would impact US lumber markets, and how reliant the US market is on Canadian lumber supply.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
*habitat
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Hard to say, but for reference, here's how harvesting has changed on federal lands over the decades. A dramatic drop since the 1990's. Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle. It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Seems bad!
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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window. Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Sorry *converted product is sourced from
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Sounds like they will try to crack down on fabricated steel and aluminum products too. But we'll see how successful that is, feels hugely inflation even beyond construction
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Yeah, steel likely shows up in rebar, components (think truss systems) and then potentially appliances, furnishings etc to finish a home, although depends on where the concrete product is sourced from.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
That's just on top line total construction costs I'm guessing? Nonresidential/apartment construction sees a bigger impact than single family residential construction?
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
I would be surprised if there aren't exceptions on milling your own wood for constructing a personal dwelling. My father has built many homes, several with his own milled framing lumber...don't think it was ever an issue as long as dimensions met code. Selling commercially would be a issue though.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Yeah, agreed. Even just to illustrate. I think he overestimates 1) the number of people with wood lots and necessary equipment to operate a sawmill 2) people willing to put in the work to saw your own lumber (it's literally back breaking work on a small portable sawmill)
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
It's hard to say how much of this very small scale sawmill operations are out there operating. But, at best we are talking a few percentage points on top of the commercial capacity base (which we can measure pretty well) And there's no way we have more spare capacity than post GFC. My two cents.
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Kyle Conway 康有为 @kc-lumberguy.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
First time posting my actual work on Bluesky. I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵 Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
JOLTS: 1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer. We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen. Yours truly also makes a late appearance! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right. All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling. What am I missing?
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Brian Platt @brianplatt.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
BREAKING: US tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days, Trudeau says
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Gotta lock in those durable goods prices before they shoot up on Tuesday I guess.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Yeah, fair enough. Wasn't sure if it was something crypto-specific.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
What's the catalyst? $TRUMP taking a nosedive?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
So what's going on with crypto, you guys?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
That's ultimately what he cares about. I'm not saying I agree with it, but that's clearly a motivating factor for him while in office
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Stonks tank enough and he'll turn the bus around. Just a question of what's the pain threshold
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
So when's he walking it all back? Seems like the next logical question?
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Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Groupings might need to be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Lumber prices are going to have to rise quite a bit to keep enough Canadian supply in the market in the short term to meet existing demand. And the American consumer will be worse off for it.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
A quarter of US softwood lumber consumption US comes from Canada. A 25% tariff stacked on a 14.5% combined duty means zero Canadian mills are viable shipping to the US. Even with existing slack in the market, we don't have the physical capacity to make up that kind of volume.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Homebuilders are going to be super rattled by these tariffs and knock-on effects in rate markets. Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
The premise that we can make all our own lumber domestically, at least in the medium term horizon, is simply incorrect. Even if you sort through species substitution (which is a real headwind), US operating rates could be 100% and that would not fully make up for Canada's share of softwood lumber.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Trump isn't wrong the US has the timber resources to produce all our lumber needs. But we don't have the sawmill capacity or logging capacity. We also don't have all the same species for framing Canada does. We're much better off trading with Canada for a commodity like lumber.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
On vacation, just seeing this now.
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is sitting at a desk looking at a book .
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting at a desk looking at a book .
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Lots of treated SYP demand on the island, maybe it moves the needle!
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Deacon Lumber sighting in Barbados. Bullish @lumber.trading ?
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
bsky.app/profile/2x4c...
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
*Looks at 10 year* "Welp that's enough market updates for today"
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Every non-Chiefs fan rn: "The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Seriously, between the cold snap and the absolute chaos incoming in lumber markets, the timing of this vacation couldn't be better lol
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Me when this week if vacation ends:
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
For whatever its worth...via Polymarket. This is just "before March" as well.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
@roryjohnston.bsky.social had a good breakdown (might have been on the other site)of changing odds we see tariffs on Canada which I am more or less aligned with him. 30-35% odds probably what I'd handicap it at rn.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
I'd guess if the market was truly pricing risks properly we'd be at more like $475-480 per MBF (cash is at $440 or so and falling now)
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Yeah...probably sitting back and assuming that Canadian heavy crude still coming at the same price on Feb 1st, lol.
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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Most SPF mills are in the black at current cash prices (including existing duties), but BARELY. 25% tariffs would mean basically no Canadian mills viable at existing prices. If it was priced in, we'd probably $550 per MBF to keep that Canadian supply in the US.
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