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Win Monroe

@winmonroe.bsky.social
2.3K followers 1.8K following 2.1K posts

Another economist. Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that. Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.

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Reposted by Win Monroe
Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 22h
Tories totally unfunded tax cut for the wealthiest latest: they’ve hugely underestimated the cost of their policy and therefore the borrowing splurge their plans would cause. This is absolutely mad approach to economic policy making - totally giving up on fiscal credibility
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 7h
Why bank stocks are falling despite surging interest rates - www.ft.com/content/8399... via @FT
ft.com
Why bank stocks are falling despite surging interest rates
If funding costs rise, the expanding profit margins banks have enjoyed may start to reverse
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 19h
Thoughts @moyeen.bsky.social ?
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 19h
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
Hedge funds warn BoE repo reforms could backfire
A hedge fund industry group has warned ​the Bank of England that proposed reforms to the market for short-term loans secured against UK government bonds, known ‌as "repo", could backfire and reduce li...
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 19h
It’s quite obviously the case that high mortgage rates are squeezing house building. But the decline in investment manufacturing structures is all about the fading of subsidies in the CHIPS act.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Big investors ‘bottom fish’ in Eurozone bond markets after France sell-off - www.ft.com/content/9cf1... via @FT
ft.com
Big investors ‘bottom fish’ in Eurozone bond markets after France sell-off
Fears of a blow-up similar to the Eurozone debt crisis have been overdone, asset managers say
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Reposted by Win Monroe
max power 🌌 @sneptech.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
😂😂
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Sounds like social media 😂
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Any transaction is a swap of a good or service (or asset) for money equal to its market value. If that was all, neither would be poorer or richer. The fact that one person values the good/service/asset more than the other means they are both better off.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
What's old is new
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Honestly, this lives rent-free in my mind
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I am old enough to remember pre-OBR budgets. It used to be there was a budget and the red book dominated discussion for 24 hours. Then, the next morning, attention turned to the IFS. Whereas nowadays the OBR essentially releases an IFS-type analysis the moment the chancellor sits down.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/h...
cnbc.com
House China committee chair urges Fed to review Hong Kong’s access to dollar lifeline
Rep. John Moolenaar wants the Fed to rethink Hong Kong’s access to a dollar-liquidity facility as China promotes the yuan as a global currency.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
French govt bond shenanigan candidates, via Unhedged www.ft.com/content/16df...
ft.com
Neat tricks to help French bonds
And why they won’t work
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
ECB's Moulin: Situation on bond markets is "complicated"
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“You don’t have to promise a path of rates for people to find an implied path of rates,” said Eric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president. “There’s a cost to saying, ‘I’m an inflation hawk.’ And that cost is [investors] are going to anticipate that rates are going to have to go a good bit higher.”
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Oh good one I overlooked
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A few possibilities that come to mind: New Keynesian macro - Blanchard, Gali, Woodford Industrial Organizaiton - Berry and Pakes Market Microstructure - Glosten, Hasbrouck, Kyle, Milgrom, (Pick 3??) Lots of potential solo ones too. Athey, Bloom, Blundell, etc.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
That's not even a remotely plausible implication. Complete red herring.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
(Please do not come into the comments to tell me its not a "real" nobel. We know. No one cares.)
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Any guesses for the nobel prize in economics this year?
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Credit spreads really doing the numbers here in the last couple weeks www.ft.com/content/7c7c...
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Again in practice I'm sympathetic, but I think you're overstating it. There's nothing a priori to say consuming good and services is preferable to consuming leisure. Indeed, time is our most scarce and irreplaceable resource.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I think much of poetry should be read aloud, even if and probably especially when the reader is alone. Orality is a big part of what makes poetry poetry imo
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"The standard disclaimers apply"
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I disagree. I think you are conflating production and welfare.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I mean, those are your preferences. I'm sympathetic, but that's not really the "purpose of the economy" On preferences and leisure: share.google/38dABTJwb8nU...
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Technically economics takes no stand on this. I think retiring earlier or working less can be a decent path but we don't set society up for it well and demographics make it challenging.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Yeah the GE effects of lower consumption and less working years is not great. Wonder if anyone has tried to estimate it.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The full impact is the counter factual of how many wages have been influenced downwards over many years, which should add up to a very big number.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Further, the longer people delay raising their wages, the longer it will impact their lifetime earnings, like graduating into a recession.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
True, and while it's not the top tax issue, it's impact is likely much larger than just looking at the numbers of people crossing the threshold. Like the minimum wage, it should exert influence on wages before the boundary.
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Reposted by Win Monroe
Albert J. Menkveld @albertjmenkveld.com · 05/10/2026
Prof. Thierry Foucault and I will teach next year's Summer School in Market Microstructure at Stockholm Business School (Mon-Fri, June 14-18, 2027). Our host will be Prof. Björn Hagströmer. We have just opened up for applications (deadline: December 1, 2026). See: microstructure-course.com.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Stonks go up.
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Paul McNamara @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Irrefutable
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Treasuries are losing their moneyness - www.ft.com/content/7128... via @FT
ft.com
Treasuries are losing their moneyness
For four decades, US government bonds have been both securities and money. They may no longer be that special
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
More likely prices will come down imo
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Basically intensive margin efficiency vs extensive margin innovation.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Want
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Lesson of Card Krueger 1996 isn't "price controls are good"; it's "market structure is important."
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I disagree, the best cure for ideological bias is asking people to walk through the mechanics of their argument. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23620547/
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Think that's what they do in Denmark - minimal payroll tax and this less subcontracting and gig work. Still some for other reasons (avoiding collective labor agreements etc) but I think it's much less
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
“I am the house.” - Sept 8 “I can’t control the bond market.” - Oct 3 @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Paul J Davies @pauljdavies.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Cheating was OK because trickle down. Fck off.
The money flowed around football. It made a lot of other clubs richer. It helped teams everywhere and especially in the Premier League.
These have been some of the arguments used by those backing Manchester City in the media and online since the verdicts declaring the club guilty came in and an appeal was announced. The suggestion is that there was a net benefit to the game as a whole, and in particular the clubs to whom Manchester City paid big transfer fees.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
@philippeauclair.bsky.social unbound at his incandescent best
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Amazing take
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Reposted by Win Monroe
jamie powell @ajbpowell.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
<whispers> the uk is 10-year is the best performing in developed mkts over the past year
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
CPH ✈️ LDN
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