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Jeff Powell

@powelljr.bsky.social
1.3K followers 541 following 728 posts

Associate Professor in economics, University of Greenwich; political economist, fascinated by all things finance & development; he/him

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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 16h
Self-fulfilling bank runs just aren’t really a thing - www.ft.com/content/80c7... via @FT
ft.com
Self-fulfilling bank runs just aren’t really a thing
Or, at least, that’s what the data seems to suggest
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 17h
How to escape the low-pay, low-productivity jobs trap   - www.ft.com/content/9ed3... via @FT
ft.com
How to escape the low-pay, low-productivity jobs trap
Informal employment may absorb surplus labour in developing countries but it can also weaken skills and economic resilience
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
game over, lads www.nber.org/system/files...
An LLM Workflow That Reproduces, Improves, and Extends
Published Economics Research ∗
Matthew D. Schwartz1
, Isaiah Andrews2
, and Jesse M. Shapiro3
1Harvard University
2MIT and NBER
3Harvard University and NBER
Wednesday 23rd September, 2026
Abstract
We introduce an open-source workflow that enables an LLM to reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article’s published replication package. First, the workflow attempts to reproduce
the original calculations, checks for discrepancies with published findings, and performs automated sensitivity analysis. Across 4,452 published replication packages for five economics journals, the workflow
flags discrepancies in 3,460 articles or their appendices. Second, the workflow improves the original calculations by using a different implementation or algorithm. In 496 articles, the workflow is able to reduce
a calculation’s computation time, at similar or greater accuracy, by more than a factor of 10. Third, the
workflow extends the original analysis. In 923 articles, the workflow develops an extension that does not
appear in the original article and that is aligned with the original article’s goals and assumptions.
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Revision of ONS figures on hours worked appears to have solved the UK 'productivity puzzle'. Overestimating hours worked means we underestimated productivity. mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/popu...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Populist tendencies on the UK left, and the puzzle that never was
Don’t shoot the messager The Treasury Select Committee (TSC) has just published a report on the Office of Budget Responsibility, the ...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Good to have @swatidhingra.bsky.social pointing to need for supply-side resilience... but missed a trick not to highlight BoE and financial sector role in heightening those very risks, so-called 'double materiality' www.ft.com/content/4aa0...
ft.com
Without a resilient economy, central banks have limited choices
Responding to geopolitical or climate-related supply shocks after the fact is never as effective as taking preventive action
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.ft.com/content/a060...
ft.com
Breaking a central banking taboo
It turns out that monetary policy affects supply as well as demand
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives...
ineteconomics.org
The Impotence of Being Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s call for fresh thinking at the Fed runs up against a deeper problem. The tools and concepts guiding monetary policy may no longer fit an economy reshaped by AI, shifting prices, and the ...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-acemog...
programmablemutter.com
The Acemoglu Wars Are All About AI
Regarding that Economist article ...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
AI hyperscalers are transforming debt - www.ft.com/content/00f9... via @FT
ft.com
AI hyperscalers are transforming debt
The sector’s huge capital needs are forcing companies and countries to rethink how they borrow money
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Bank of England’s balance sheet has already stopped shrinking - www.ft.com/content/1a44... via @FT
ft.com
The Bank of England’s balance sheet has already stopped shrinking
So is it QE on the QT?
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
How can we tackle AI’s financial risks? - www.ft.com/content/065d... via @FT
ft.com
How can we tackle AI’s financial risks?
Out of public sight, bureaucrats are trying to fight digital fire with fire
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
www.ft.com/content/6354...
ft.com
Are Big Tech bonds crowding out the US Treasury?
Probably not
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New post: How should the government meet its Golden Rule when debt interest increases? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/how-... Why it makes more economic sense to raise taxes rather than cut spending in the first intance.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
How should the government meet its Golden Rule when debt interest increases?
As you are almost certainly aware, the government is having to pay much more in interest on its debt than it used to do. Here is a chart b...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Missed this. www.ft.com/content/9f57...
ft.com
Digital euro makes debut in wholesale financial markets
European Central Bank hopes to launch a retail equivalent by 2029
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Does financialization threaten productive development? By Castillo, Dymski, @anninak.bsky.social and Lancheros academic.oup.com/icc/article/...
academic.oup.com
Does financialization threaten productive development?
Abstract. This paper explores financializaton’s effects on productive development—proxied by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI)—in a panel of 78 countries
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
www.ineteconomics.org/research/res...
ineteconomics.org
Inflation Beyond Borders: A Research Agenda
Inflation is usually treated as a national problem, to be managed through domestic monetary and fiscal policy. But its striking synchronization across countries suggests another story, one where it is...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Bank of England follows FTAV advice - www.ft.com/content/46e2... via @FT
ft.com
Bank of England follows FTAV advice
Although maybe correlation ≠ causation
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
www.theguardian.com/inequality/2...
theguardian.com
Global leaders urged to join initiative to fight extreme inequality
More than 1,500 academics and economists sign letter, calling growing gap between richest and poorest ‘a policy choice that can be reversed’
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
No country for independent central bankers
A future of state-directed finance will force change on monetary policymakers
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Seems an appropriate day to highlight the distributional impacts of monetary policy... my piece with Diane Elson in Feminist Economics available open access. Pls share with any individuals or groups that might be interested! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Engendering Monetary Policy
Inflation-targeting monetary policy based on the New Keynesian Economic framework has been an obstacle to fiscal stimulus, employment, and growth, reducing public investment in equality supporting ...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Slave-trade wealth was embedded in Britain’s financial system, research finds www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-i...
theguardian.com
Slave-trade wealth was embedded in Britain’s financial system, research finds
Dozens of Bank of England directors and founding subscribers invested in trafficking of enslaved Africans
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
📢Applications open for PhD scholarships in Economics of Social & Ecological Sustainability at University of Greenwich (part of Economics Pathway within UBEL Doctoral Training Partnership). nb. Pre-registration deadline of 30 Oct www.gre.ac.uk/articles/bus...
gre.ac.uk
UBEL Economics of Social and Ecological Sustainability | Articles | University of Greenwich
A research pathway for those exploring the economics of social and ecological sustainability.
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/09/2026
One more totally fucking nuts graph for today, care of a request by @leonsimons.com. Not only is the current standard deviation for the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature above 4SD over the 1982-2011 mean for the first time on record, but no previous year even reached 3SD.
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
'days post: Understanding long term interest rates movements over the austerity period and today mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/unde... We may end up judging the era of cheap borrowing after the GFC, rather than conditions today, as an historical oddity.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Understanding long term interest rates movements over the austerity period and today
The first section explains some basic ideas, and those familiar with arbitrage and the natural real rate of interest can skip to the auste...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The new fiscal threats to monetary policy - www.ft.com/content/dda7...
ft.com
The new fiscal threats to monetary policy
High public deficits and debt undermine central banks’ ability to control inflation
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Cléo Chassonnery-Zaïgouche @cleocz.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
We are very happy to launch the *Cambridge Elements in History of Economics series* The 1st Element *The Mathematisation of Economics* by Marcel Boumans is freely available online until 18 September! www.cambridge.org/core/publica...
cambridge.org
History of Economics
Welcome to Cambridge Core
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Could the DMO take the BoE’s long gilts off their hands? - www.ft.com/content/b086... via @FT
ft.com
Could the DMO take the BoE’s long gilts off their hands?
And should they?
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
EconomicsInTen @economicsinten.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
OUT NOW! Our brand new episode on the life and ideas of Henry George. The man who inspired a whole movement after his name & a famous board game. His book 'Progress and Poverty' was so big, only the Bible out-sold it in his time. Learn more here... #EconSky #EduSky podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com
Season 9 - Episode 3 - Henry George
Podcast Episode · Economics In Ten · 7 September · 1hr 24min
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The university degree is losing its lustre - www.ft.com/content/54cf... via @FT
ft.com
The university degree is losing its lustre
Technological and economic shifts are eroding the graduate premium
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
www.ft.com/content/96e8...
ft.com
How AI forces us to rethink the economy
It’s not just about winners and losers, but how economies fundamentally function
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
What a century of data tells us about today’s corporate bond spreads - www.ft.com/content/0a50... via @FT
ft.com
What a century of data tells us about today’s corporate bond spreads
Low spreads were normal. Are they so again?
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives...
ineteconomics.org
The Macroeconomic Roots of the Collapse of the Political Center in the US
The collapse of America's political center isn't a mystery. What looks like a sudden political crisis is really the result of an economy that's been quietly abandoning ordinary workers for decades.
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Will financial innovation dethrone the dollar? - www.ft.com/content/1481... via @FT
ft.com
Will financial innovation dethrone the dollar?
The evolution of a truly multi-polar currency market depends on governments’ willingness to embrace technology and fortify markets
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Green Energy, AI and Planning jwmason.substack.com/p/green-ener...
jwmason.substack.com
Green Energy, AI and Planning
by Arjun Jayadev and J.
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Chartbook 470 Treasury v. Fed 2026: Battle Royale or “Epic Fury” in the bond market? adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
adamtooze.substack.com
Chartbook 470 Treasury v. Fed 2026: Battle Royale or “Epic Fury” in the bond market?
To have the two central agencies of government economic policy not engaged in a coherent division of labour, but pulling in opposite directions, points to a fundamental dissensus at the heart of gover...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Feminism didn’t kill the male breadwinner model, the economy did - www.ft.com/content/4b7b... via @FT
ft.com
Feminism didn’t kill the male breadwinner model, the economy did
Young non-graduate men face unique setbacks
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
www.ft.com/content/4987...
ft.com
How to end the cycle of mistrust between the Treasury and everybody else
The lesson from Manchester is that it takes time for public investment policies to show up in GDP
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
www.ft.com/content/0d40...
ft.com
The Bank of England gets with the programme on QT
Four years on, Threadneedle Street finally agrees with the market
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
www.ft.com/content/86db...
ft.com
The real message in the yen intervention
The dollar’s status as a reserve currency is not what it used to be
021
Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
We’ve moved from income world to wealth world - www.ft.com/content/6a35... via @FT
ft.com
We’ve moved from income world to wealth world
Passive wealth gains increasingly matter more than earnings for one’s standing in society
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
We need humanities more than ever in the age of AI - www.ft.com/content/fbde... via @FT
ft.com
We need humanities more than ever in the age of AI
Subjects like literature, languages and history are vital to a thoughtful and prosperous society
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Topsy turvy world where finance professionals are more progressive than most labour MPs... Britain does not need looser fiscal rules. It needs better ones - www.ft.com/content/03f0... via @FT
ft.com
Britain does not need looser fiscal rules. It needs better ones
The budget framework needs to be fixed to reward stewardship rather than neglect
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
More on the expectations fairy... 'cuz workers set prices didn't ya know? www.ft.com/content/db0f...
ft.com
The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have a trust deficit
Loss of faith in central banks could be driving up long-run inflation expectations
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Chart of the Week: UK inflation is not distributed equally - www.ft.com/content/8916... via @FT
ft.com
Chart of the Week: UK inflation is not distributed equally
The poorest pay the most in an energy shock
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Developing countries spend more repaying foreign debt than on education, UN reveals www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
Developing countries spend more repaying foreign debt than on education, UN reveals
Unesco report shows children lost out to servicing debt in 113 countries, with 18 spending five times more on loans
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The great carbon capture con: behold the wasted billions Burnham could claw back | George Monbiot www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The great carbon capture con: behold the wasted billions Burnham could claw back | George Monbiot
There are far better ways to tackle climate breakdown, but successive governments have chosen to listen to the fossil fuel companies instead, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
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Reposted by Jeff Powell
Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Y'days post: The UK’s falling debt to GDP fiscal rule is a rule to suppress public investment mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Using schemes like PFI to get around the constraint on public investment imposed by the falling debt to GDP rule is just absurd.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
The UK’s falling debt to GDP fiscal rule is a rule to suppress public investment
Let me start by apologising to any regular readers of this blog. None of the arguments in this post are particularly new. But with a new P...
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Inflation: If they don’t know, now you know? - www.ft.com/content/fa8b... via @FT
ft.com
Inflation: If they don’t know, now you know?
What fence-sitters can, and can’t, tell us about price increases
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Taking the measure of the UK as a financial service centre - www.ft.com/content/c056... via @FT
ft.com
Taking the measure of the UK as a financial service centre
Turning a data-fuelled quantitative international ranking project into a thing about London
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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
How the Iran crisis undermines the Bank’s QT programme - www.ft.com/content/de19... via @FT
ft.com
How the Iran crisis undermines the Bank’s QT programme
Unlike the previous crises, this time the Bank carried on selling. It is time for a rethink.
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