iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Tomas Hirst

ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A very fun thing [🤮🫠] about these markets is that the bears have been right about everything and the bulls wrong about everything except that the equity market would care either way. It turned out the bad thing could happen and equities still only go up.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Hearing people talk about negative corporate spreads makes me feel a bit like the joker muttering “how do you think the debt settles” to myself

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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It’s Armageddon in the rates markets and on one has even noticed.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Bidding goodbye to South Carolina

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The one-way ratchet structure of US mortgage market has basically removed the forcing mechanism of high rates into price falls via forced sales. So the major impact is basically the marginal demand channel, which is a pea-shooter by comparison.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Lots of different euphemisms for “I can’t get the price I’m looking for” I guess

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One of the things I am most annoyed about is that Starmer didn’t take the opportunity of great vibes in 2024 to do a series of contingent policy commitments (we will raise taxes *only if* growth we hope for doesn’t turn up). Because it’s basically designed to address exogenous shocks that we’ve hit.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Last few sessions has seen gilts do a touch better than USTs. Don’t want to overread but it’s an interesting shift in dynamic.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Charleston’s a really nice place to wander around is my discovery today. But *hot*

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Labour more willing to take some hit on triple-lock reform, focus on social care funding and some apparent desire to improve on the current arrangements with Europe (albeit with exactly as much detail as that implies) all to be welcomed. Still a lot of “lord, make me chaste, but not yet” in there.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Getting strong Gatsby vibes from this hotel

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I am very glad I missed this because I have exactly nothing pleasant to say about this framing

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Our interaction with “AI” is always mediated through our existing knowledge base - and that’s why it feels radical to some and questionable/harmful to others. Annoyingly, I’m going to take a somewhat fence-sitting stance and say it clearly can help streamline process in rote terms.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

14 hours into a trip; still 4 hours to go. Find myself in Charlotte airport. May or may not be losing my mind.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

There is a point where when you look at projected net debt supply, examine what’s happening with the risk free curve and note how new deals are pricing where just saying “RoI must be high enough to cover this” maybe isn’t as compelling as it was.

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Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

🚨 QT? The BoE’s balance sheet has *grown* over the past year. www.ft.com/content/1a44...

ft.com

The Bank of England’s balance sheet has already stopped shrinking

So is it QE on the QT?

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

In South Carolina for a conference this week. Let me know if any mutuals on here have tips for places to visit in/around Charleston.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Been going on about this for years. Housing has been a terrible *investment*. Still (mostly) fine as a hedge against future housing services needs but with flats diverging from houses the ladder to larger properties in a similar area is currently broken.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

In South Carolina for a conference this week. Let me know if any mutuals on here have tips for places to visit in/around Charleston.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Meeting Point is basically a perfect poem *except* the line “And all the room one glow because” - and it trips me up every time

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

<- is officially a “material risk taker”

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The sky was good for flying Defying the church bells And every evil iron Siren and what it tells: The earth compels, We are dying, Egypt, dying And not expecting pardon, Hardened in heart anew, But glad to have sat under Thunder and rain with you, And grateful too For sunlight on the garden.

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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I can’t verify their numbers but the there’s here aligns with my view. Its also the @tomashirstecon.bsky.social point about how fixed/senior obligations end up eating the equity returns when capital is scarce. www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser...

groundbrkr.com

The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

Trillions in compute commitments come due in 2027–2028. The Reset Wall reveals how the AI boom breaks, and when.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

People recording themselves committing crimes like

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

If you’re an economics/finance/markets type and you’re not following @winmonroe.bsky.social and @vkmacro.bsky.social then you probably should be.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The new age of the interventionist state* *but only in the dumbest possible expressions of the form

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Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Will keep boringly saying this (no disrespect to OP): it's not a health surcharge. It's not hypothecated to the NHS; you can't choose not to pay it and thereby eschew healthcare. You could equally call it an education or roads surcharge. It's using the NHS's sanctified status to rip off immigrants.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

It’s sort of chef kiss here that A7 promised (effectively) to offer money laundering via crypto when they actually just faked invoices the old fashioned way

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Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

1/Unfortunately the words "forward guidance" are often misused. The general principle behind central bank communications is that we need to understand how the central bank is making its decisions. Policy actions have to be explained carefully, and justified, by appealing to the available economic...

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Luckily they’ve sufficiently undermined the rate easing cycle that housing demand is taking a kicking alongside this self-inflicted supply shock

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Plenty to agree with in Paul Johnson’s essay about low UK investment - reflects a broad consensus - but the policy prescriptions feel quite flat to me. Cheaper building via deregulation. Stop being myopic, provide stability. Tax and welfare reform. Empower city regions. Drive pensions investment.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

No idea who this is but judging by his tone and lack of substance I hope all those following him might reconsider

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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

It's easiest to see this with a reductio ad absurdum. If you apply the same analysis to non-immigrants (and there is no reason in the model not to) you get the conclusion that births are also bad for the fiscal position. (In fact I would guess they are a little bit worse)

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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

It seems to me to use the phrases "net fiscal benefit" and "positive fiscal contribution" interchangeably, but obviously in a redistributive system, an immigrant worker whose net fiscal cost is lower than a domestic worker is a benefit

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Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

This whole issue is framed wrongly. As I've written: "Worrying that some migrants won’t pay their way is a displacement activity - an attempt to blame migrants for the failings of British capitalism." chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-the-fis...

chrisdillow.substack.com

On the fiscal costs of immigration

Are immigrants a drain on the tax-payer? It's a silly question.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

I’m not against e.g. state pension reform in the abstract but this piece reads very much like a version of lump of labour fallacy to me. Would be interested in @jdportes.bsky.social thoughts giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

giftarticle.ft.com

Unpacking the real fiscal costs of immigration

Low taxes on low earners mean the same immigrants cost the UK more than they would elsewhere

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This black mirror episode is going a bit far

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The banter heuristic is back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (wolf Howl)

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Crosscurrent has an official office!

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Crosscurrent has an official office!

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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The Tax Foundation argued recently that we should think of the falling labor share as making a 'round trip' back to 'historically precedented' values. I disagree and walk through how the argument is weaker than it seems. Plus we dig into NIPA flat files! newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/i-disagree...

newsletter.mikekonczal.com

I Disagree With The Tax Foundation, Labor Share is Collapsing

Getting into the guts of NIPA and what prop income really does when you include it.

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

lol at BoE finally working out that selling long Gilts into the market at this time was interfering with their policy stance

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

So many theories around the UK’s outsized financial sector as a reason for its poor post-GFC relative productivity performance dissolving like tears in the rain

static.klipy.com

Rutger Hauer's Iconic Blade Runner Monologue

ALT: Rutger Hauer's Iconic Blade Runner Monologue

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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026

Anyway, (for various complicated reasons due to survey quality) the upshot is measured annual UK productivity per hour since the GFC will be revised up from 1.1% to 1.3%

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