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Vince Agard

@vinceagard.com
188 followers 245 following 51 posts

Weather and climate prediction for renewable energy. MIT EAPS alumnus. Sports fan.

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Reposted by Vince Agard
matty @mattio.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This is wild - somebody did a deep dive into the real stories behind this famous XKCD: sheets.works/data-viz/hol...
an XKCD comic showing a precariously assembled tower of blocks. much is labelled "all modern digital infrastructure." a thin leg down at the bottom is labelled "A project some random person in Nebraska has been thanklessly maintaining since 2003."
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Dang what a quote. Sarah Gille: “One of my office mates in the general exam, the qualifying exam for doing research at MIT, was asked: How would you explain chaos theory to your mother?” Her mother coded chaos theory w Lorenz.
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Eloquent Science (Prof. David Schultz) @eloquentscience.com · 06/10/2026
The abstract of the original article in Journal of the History of Biology by @alistairsponsel.bsky.social and Brian Sutton is really quite something. doi.org/10.1007/s107...
This essay, co-authored by a historian of science and an X-ray crystallographer, sheds new light on Rosalind Franklin’s Photograph 51. We refute the infamous claim that, unlike James Watson, Franklin failed to see the picture’s potential significance for interpreting the helical structure of DNA. Rather, Franklin decided to take Photograph 51 precisely because she knew that key parameters of DNA’s B form helix could be calculated from the resulting image. We show that she had in fact already made those calculations — on her earlier Photograph 49 — and she reused the same DNA sample for Photograph 51 to create a better-centered but otherwise identical diffraction image that would be suitable for publication. Thus Photograph 51 was not the result of an experiment in need of analysis, but was refined documentation for calculations that she had already performed on the earlier photograph. We argue that colleagues and later commentators did not merely overlook Franklin’s original reason for creating the strikingly clear and informative Photograph 51, they rhetorically erased her skill and judgment by describing it as though nature spoke for itself through the image — and to Watson, but not to Franklin.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Wading into the "relative versus absolute" El Niño intensity debate: I genuinely think both are important--and I think we lose important information if we focus solely on one vs another. And both, as of late Sep, have now reached or exceeded record levels! [Thread]
Plot by Daniel Swain showing temporal evolution of ONI vs RONI index during 2026, representing two different ways to visualize El Nino intensity. The ONI has been at record levels since May, and the RONI has been at near-record levels since June. Data directly from NOAA.
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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NOAA’s 00Z analysis confirms the strongest late season high pressure ridge on record for the Southeast. It appears the Nashville sounding observed its highest 500mb heights in its history, while Atlanta’s was only 2 meters under the previous all-time record, which occurred on 8/24/1954.
An analyzed 500 millibar weather map over the US. A large 600+ decameter ridge over the Southeast is the strongest on record for so late in the year and is driving record heat to its northwest
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NSF has reduced the research budget for all atmospheric, ocean, and earth sciences by ~80%. 80%! A lot of us will not be conducting new research or training new students for the foreseeable future.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
One of several eyebrow-raisers in here. (Happy Holidays?) "California’s highest king tides are predicted on Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day, with another in late January. Water levels will probably rival the highest in recorded history, even without a nearby storm."
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This will pretty much end international students pursuing doctorates. A shocking decision and one which will do irreparable damage to the United States in the long term. www.highereddive.com/news/trump-a...
highereddive.com
Trump administration caps student visa stays at 4 years under final rule
Critics have castigated the measure, arguing it ignores average degree completion times and creates unnecessary burdens for international students.
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Karen K. Ho @karenho.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I am writing a best practices guide to reporting on tornadoes for OpenNews. If you are an expert on tornadoes, or a journalist with experience reporting on them, and are available to chat with me today, my email is karen at opennews dot org and my Signal is karenkho.45
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Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The Guadalupe River at Centerpoint TX, just downstream from Kerrville, crested this AM at 37.94”— just 2 feet below the level reached in last summer’s catastrophic flood. 1. 39.61 ft on 07-04-2025 (P) 2. 24.27 ft on 10-16-2018 3. 14.83 ft on 05-29-2016 water.noaa.gov/gauges/gctt2
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Parts of the Northeast US have been under a thick plume of smoke today overspreading the region from fires across south-central Canada - the worst smoke plume to affect the region since the infamous 2023 NYC smoke plume. Thread for the meteorology associated with this:
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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
HRRR-smoke is showing dense near surface smoke on Wednesday from the Great Lakes to New York City. 🌡️ 🌎 🔥 💨 😷
Smoke density near the surface forecasted on Wednesday evening. Extremely poor air quality is likely in the dark red and purple areas across the Great Lakes. Smoke density forecast late Wednesday via pivotalweather across the Northeast. Southern New England to the NYC metro will likely see extremely unhealthy air quality if this verifies.
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Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
It's interesting that most people don't seem to know what weather event kills more people every year in the U.S. according to the National Weather Service Here you go...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 01/07/2026
"Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels of 5 — the highest possible — are forecast across the eastern U.S., meaning human-caused climate change made this extreme heat at least 5x more likely. This signals an exceptional climate-influenced event." 🔥 ➡️ Learn more: www.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...
Graphic showing the Climate Shift Index for July 2, 2026 using data from the 18z GFS model for minimum temperatures. The graphic shows the change in likelihood due to climate change. Many areas are seeing a maximum of temperatures being at least 5x more likely due to climate change. This tool is available at https://csi.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index.
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Paris, the capital of France, has recorded more days above 40°C this week than during the 147-year period spanning from 1872 to 2019. Historic is an understatement.
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lynn @chordbug.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
fixed your headline
A hit song on the Billboard 100 charts is termed *$k$-good* if it is _ever_ in a weekly top-$k$, and *$k$-immediate* if it _debuts_ in the top-$k$.


An artist is *$(n,k)$-Olivian* if their $n$ first $k$-good hits are all also $k$-immediate.

*Headline 1.* Olivia Rodrigo is the first $(10,10)$-Olivian woman.
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Grantham Research Institute at LSE @granthamlse.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
We regret that our event on Extreme Heat: Improving governance and strengthening action around the world has been cancelled due to the red extreme heat warning issued by the UK Met Office. Our apologies to everyone who was planning to attend the event.
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Météo-France @meteofrance.com · 23/06/2026
🔴 Ce mardi est la journée la plus chaude jamais enregistrée en France. Le thermomètre est même monté à 44,3 °C à Pissos (Landes). De nombreuses villes ont connu des valeurs inédites, tous mois confondus (et nous ne sommes qu'en juin...), notamment 42,1 °C à Bordeaux. [valeurs provisoires 17h]
La France vient de connaître sa journée la plus chaude jamais enregistrée : ce 23 juin 2026, l'indicateur thermique national a atteint 29,8 °C (valeur provisoire à 17h).
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Noah Brauer @noaabrauer.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Has got to be one of the most miserable obs I’ve seen in the CONUS. 101/83 in McAllen, TX yielding a heat index of 129°F 🥵🥵
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CIRES @cires.colorado.edu · 15/06/2026
CIRES recently got to check out the new @noaa.gov Hail Cam! Hail melts quickly after falling, so it's difficult to know the true size of a hailstone. With the Hail Cam, researchers at NOAA NSSL can measure the size before it hits the ground to make radar estimates and warnings more accurate.
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Amy McGovern @profamymcgovern.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
NY times covered our cut today (gift article) www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/s...
nytimes.com
She Used A.I. to Improve Forecasts for Extreme Weather
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Jared Rennie @jjrennie.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Pretty good CAPE in today’s sounding
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
This is something I have never seen before on satellite. Clouds perfectly outlining roads. Just incredibly neat imagery of Houston, Texas this morning. Massive shoutout to Ethan Mok who discovered it (on Twitter).
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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 22/05/2026
I'm happy to announce the launch of malpais.app, a free NEXRAD/TDWR radar viewer that lives in your browser. malpais downloads Level 2 or Level 3 data from NOAA's Open Data Dissemination archives and renders it in WebGL on your desktop or mobile device. For free.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 19/05/2026
"One-quarter of the 1,100 Texas professors and researchers surveyed said they are seeking jobs outside the state. More than 60% said they would not encourage graduate students or colleagues to work at a university in Texas."
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
NSSL WoFS storm scale model shows an incredibly favorable environment for intense tornadoes across northeast Kansas the next several hours, SPC just issued a PDS tornado watch there into far southeast Nebraska.
NSSL WoFS forecast of significant tornado parameter valid at 3:30 pm CT
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BostonTimelapse @bostontimelapse.org · 13/05/2026
24 hours of Boston in 24 seconds!
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Amy McGovern @profamymcgovern.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Introducing a new framework for evaluating AIWP and NWP models on a standardized set of extreme weather cases! arxiv.org/abs/2605.01126
arxiv.org
Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather
Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical th...
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Wxdylan @wxdylan.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
If you or someone you know is looking to start a career in the NWS, we've sent out one of the biggest recruiting announcements in a decade. I -highly- encourage you to find someone in the NWS to talk to about applications. The process is significantly changed from years past. Come work with me!
Poster for the hiring process in the National Weather Service. Multiple images of people in the NWS working in offices are on the right. Down the left is a large "We are hiring" title, with the words "Meteorologist GS-5/7/9 early-career positions @ Weather Forecast Offices across the nation below it. A QR code is below that which goes to the webpage on USAjobs for openings. Closing is September 30th.
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School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology @soest.hawaii.edu · 28/04/2026
Prof. Niklas Schneider from the Department of Oceanography showed @helenczerski.bsky.social some of the ocean phenomena that can be demonstrated with a rotating tank. In this case, it’s the formation of subtropical gyres and why we will always have the Gulf Stream. 🌊 weathertank.mit.edu
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Nicolas Fulghum @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
In 2025, renewables overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in over 100 years. Renewables: 33.8% Coal: 33.0% Coal fell below a third of global electricity generation for the first time in history.
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Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 21/04/2026
I'd like to introduce you all to a personal project I've been working on recently. It's called Heimdall, and it's an MRMS + ProbSevere situational awareness monitor for CONUS scale severe weather. It's got roaming, alerts, archive mode, and is fully client side. heimdall.stormscale.io
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Vince Agard @vinceagard.com · 13/04/2026
Ancient Vantage Pro2
Weather station installed amidst the ruins of the ancient city of Perge
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A satellite view that tracks the rocket a bit longer - the water vapor imagery. Pew pew! All imagery found via CIRA/NOAA: slider.cira.colostate.edu.
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Meade Krosby @meadekrosby.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
>10,000 STEM PhDs have left federal service over the past year (including 30% of the federal colleagues with whom I’ve worked closely). Those still left are holding federal science together with duct tape. What an extraordinary act of sabotage against the American people.
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IEMBOT Emergency @emergency.weather.im · 20/03/2026
HFO continues Flash Flood Emergency [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: catastrophic] for Oahu in Honolulu [HI] till Mar 20, 5:00 AM HST Link
IEMBot Image
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
In Phoenix, Arizona, temperatures could reach an unbelievable 107°F (+42°C) on Friday. If that verifies, it would break the record for the earliest occurrence of 107°F since records began in 1895, pulverising the previous record by a whopping 44 days. This is totally bonkers.
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
An absolutely stunning view of a large haboob sweeping across Texas.
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Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 11/03/2026
Just stunning – and heartbreaking – that there is barely a single data point across the VAST combined area of DRC, Sudan and South Sudan
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Ryan Stauffer @ryanswx.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Happy SSW Day ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
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Tom Di Liberto @tdiliberto.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
This winter is such a great example of shifting baselines. As someone in the east, it was cold this winter. Full stop. But it "felt" even more frigid because we haven't had such cold recently. It was cold but not historically so. But good heavens look at that record-breaking heat out West. 🔥
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Neil Kaye @neilrkaye.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
We use 30 year averages to show climatology (average weather conditions). During the 20th century the UK climatology followed a path around a confined box. With #globalwarming and #climatechange they have escaped out the box. This #dataviz shows UK rainfall and temperature.
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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Watch as a massive crack forms in the ice on Lake Erie. An impressive view captured by GOES-19 earlier on Sunday.
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WeatherMatrix @weathermatrix.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Neat! SPC has updated their 1955-2024 severe weather climatology. www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/datavi... Here's "tornado" for all 365 days of the year:
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
In my newsletter this morning, I shared the experimental real-time freezing rain ice accumulation analysis developed by the winter weather research group at NSSL. This is the kind of R2O NOAA does that has clear societal benefit - and that the admin wants to curtail. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb
tinyurl.com
12 people reported dead, nearly 800K customers still without power from massive, major winter storm
Serious concerns for impacted areas as near record cold settles in. Meanwhile, a new storm lurks for the East Coast by this weekend.
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Ian @ianlivingston.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
This has been the results analog in my mind since sleetmonster was born. The 2007 storm was not as big... one of the most outsized impact events I recall. The days after were a big ole mess. www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_D...
February 13-14, 2007: The Valentine’s Day Sleet Storm. The weather map the morning of Tuesday the 13th showed low pressure strengthening over Arkansas, with a stationary front extending eastward across North Carolina. Temperatures in the NWS Sterling forecast area that morning were in the lower 30s. However, with high pressure over upstate New York, surface temperatures dropped below freezing by early afternoon on northerly winds. Of greater importance was what was happening to the temperature of the column of air up to 8000 feet above the surface. Weather balloon soundings taken every six hours at NWS Sterling showed that warm, above freezing air was flowing into the area on southwesterly winds between 5000 feet and 8000 feet. This was causing the snow falling from the clouds to melt, but as these drops descended further to refreeze prior to reaching the surface, forming sleet. East of Washington DC the column of subfreezing air was not as thick, and the drops remained liquid until they reached the surface, where they refroze on contact to form freezing rain. East of the Blue Ridge, sleet accumulated quickly on the morning of the 14th – Valentine’s Day. Totals for the storm ranged from 4-8” of snow and sleet across northern Virginia and central Maryland, to up to ¾ inch of ice in southern Prince Georges County. Almost 69,000 homes lost power in Anne Arundel County. The days after the storm were of little help to road and power crews, as well as those trying to clear driveways, as temperatures remained subfreezing until the afternoon of the 17th.
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Vince Agard @vinceagard.com · 25/01/2026
While many of you are likely yelling "GO PATRIOTS" or "GO BRONCOS!" I'm yelling "GO WEATHER and the dendritic growth zone!"
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Vince Agard @vinceagard.com · 25/01/2026
#Thundersleet in Austin SPECI KAUS 250426Z COR 36012G18KT 7SM -TSPL BKN015CB BKN023 OVC027 M04/M06 A3007 RMK AO2 SNE18 TSB25 PRESFR OCNL LTGICCG S TS S MOV NE P0000 T10391056 $
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